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The ballots for the 2020 baseball Hall of Fame election have been released, so I figured I would give my thoughts on who deserves to be in based on my Hall Of Fame Metric. Below you will see each player on the respective ballots score, as well as the average score of all Hall of Famers for that player's position. For positions that I formerly did lists on (CP, C, and 2B), that position's "Hall of Fame Line" will be listed instead. From the BBWAA Ballot - Bobby Abreu (OF): 1084.156, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Josh Beckett (SP): 980, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Heath Bell (CP): 1009.9, HoF Line is about 1225 Barry Bonds* (OF): 2828.7, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Eric Chavez (3B): 949.615, HoF Position Average is 1236.407 Roger Clemens* (SP): 2491.9, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Adam Dunn (OF/1B): 864.46, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Chone Figgins (3B/OF/2B): 666.566, HoF Position Average is 1236.407 Rafeal Furcal (SS): 785.011, HoF Position Average is 1058.16 Jason Giambi* (1B): 1146.163, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Todd Helton (1B): 1375.883, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Raul Ibanez (OF): 844.279, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Derek Jeter (SS): 1653.109, HoF Position Average is 1058.16 Andruw Jones (OF): 1321.36 HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Jeff Kent (2B): 1207.406, HoF Line is about 1023 Paul Konerko (1B): 997.502, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Cliff Lee (SP): 1086.4, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Carlos Pena (1B): 781.032, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Brad Penny (SP): 795.3, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Andy Pettitte* (SP): 1094.1, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 JJ Putz (CP): 975.3, HoF Line is about 1225 Manny Ramirez* (OF): 1669.348, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Brian Roberts (2B): 736.94, HoF Line is about 1023 Scott Rolen (3B): 1247.268, HoF Position Average is 1236.407 Curt Schilling (SP): 1313.8, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Gary Sheffield* (OF): 1341.424, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Alfonso Soriano (OF/2B): 1058.513, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Sammy Sosa* (OF): 1441.86, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Jose Valverde (CP): 1165.7, HoF Line is about 1225 Omar Vizquel (SS): 1249.553, HoF Position Average is 1058.16 Billy Wagner (CP): 1351.3, HoF Line is about 1225 Larry Walker (OF): 1486.434, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 All in all that gives us 15 players to actually consider for the ballot. (in bold) It is my opinion that the use of steroids by Sosa, Sheffield, and Ramirez should prevent them from being inducted. However, I think Clemens and Bonds deserve to be in because their level of play was still much higher than their fellow steroid users, which implies that they likely could have been Hall of Famers without using PEDs. I do believe they should be punished in some form for using PEDs, such as a statement or asterisk on their plaque addressing the issue. By taking 3 players out and putting 2 in, we now have 10 players left to address and only 8 spots left on the ballot. Since the Hall of Fame Line is meant to be an absolute line as to whether someone should be in Cooperstown or not, it makes since to eliminate Valverde next because he is below the line. Thus we have 9 players left and 8 spots. The final choice comes down to Schilling, Rolen, Helton, Wagner, and Jones, who are all fairly close to their Hall of Fame position averages. Though Schilling is the only player technically below the average, we must note that since it's an average, half of all Hall of Fame starting pitchers are below it. Schilling has waited longer than the others on the ballot and has a key landmark distinction of obtaining 3000 strikeouts. The other players did not meet such similar distinctions (500 homers or 3000 hits, for example). Thus I think Curt Schilling definitely deserves a spot. In the end I say leave Andruw Jones out since he is pretty close to the average and has the largest player pool to make that average (there are many Hall of Fame outfielders). He has also been on the ballot the least amount of years. To summarize, my 10 person ballot would be as follows: 1. Derek Jeter 2. Barry Bonds 3. Roger Clemens 4. Omar Vizquel 5. Jeff Kent 6. Larry Walker 7. Todd Helton 8. Curt Schilling 9. Billy Wagner 10. Scott Rolen From the Modern Baseball Era Ballot - Dwight Evans (OF): 1327.814, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Steve Garvey (1B): 1241.858, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Tommy John (SP): 1006.3, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Don Mattingly (1B): 1387.283, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Thurman Munson (C): 1064, HoF Line is about 1017 Dale Murphy (OF): 1459.4, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Dave Parker (OF): 1344.921, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Ted Simmons (C): 1125, HoF Line is about 1017 Lou Whitaker (2B): 1177.248, HoF Line is about 1023 points Marvin Miller is also on the ballot, but since he wasn't a player I can't do much statistical analysis as to whether he belongs in the Hall or not. The Modern Era committee ballot allows for up to 4 votes. As we can see, all 9 players are around their Hall of Fame position average and thus are worthy of being considered for the all. Since Garvey and Tommy John are the only 2 below their average, it makes sense to eliminate them first but obviously there is a historical value to Tommy John's bid for the Hall due to the changing surgery named after and first performed on him. Thurman Munson was absolutely stellar during his short career and I think it's fair to say he could have been a no doubt Hall of Famer had he not died so young. We shouldn't penalize his legacy because of his accidental death; Munson belongs in. Simmons also ranks very highly among all catchers ever, but missed out on some of the limelight due to the existence of Johnny Bench. Murphy has very impressive awards and is by far the highest above his position average. Dave Parker has the closest to 3000 hits, as well as a fair amount of homers, which also puts him well above his position average. Mattingly and Evans, by comparison, are only barely above their position average. That leaves just Lou Whitaker, who I definitely think belongs in (especially since his partner in crime Alan Trammel has been inducted), but unfortunately I don't think is as deserving as Murphy, Parker, Simmons, or Munson. To summarize, my 4 person Modern Era committee ballot would be as follows: 1. Thurman Munson 2. Ted Simmons 3. Dale Murphy 4. Dave Parker Obviously, everyone has differences in opinion. For the normal ballot, I can only say 100% confidently that Jeter will get in. I think people will give Walker the benefit of the doubt since it will be his last year on the ballot. I also believe Vizquel will be given a good chance to get in. If Bonds and Clemens aren't voted in, they will likely get the highest share of the vote they've gotten so far. As for the historical ballot, it's kind of a toss up. All the players on the ballot are somewhat deserving, and the addition of players in recent years that were formerly thought of as members of the "Hall of Very Good" has opened voters' eyes into letting other greats in. The Hall is meant to be home to the greatest players ever, but we must realize just how many players have played in the MLB over all these years. These players might not be the best at their positions, but for a period of time they were certainly near the top of their class and deserve to be awarded for it. Thanks for reading. I know it has been a bit since my last post but I figured this was a good topic to comment my opinion on . Aaron Springer
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