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Everyone's favorite time of the year has arrived, with the 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot announced and the results set to be shared on January 23rd. As always, I will analyze each player on the ballot using my own opinions backed by statistical arguments. I will also share how each player fares in terms of my Player Value metric (which I'm still working on long-term to further refine), as well as the fate that my Hall of Fame model predicts for each player. You can read about the current version of my Player Value metric here, as well as its addendum here. Different rankings using Player Value can also be found here. Player Value exists to function as a simplified version of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) with a slightly different implementation. Players are still judged based on the run-value of the events they produce in terms of batting, fielding, baserunning, and pitching. The current version of Player Value has more simplified statistical splits than is preferable. Rather than comparing players to a hypothetical replacement level, they are compared to their positional 25th percentile, which I believe eliminates the need for a positional adjustment. You can read my paper on my Hall of Fame predictive model here. I created this model for a project in one of my statistics classes during my senior year of college. I was encouraged to enter my model into a larger competition and it finished in 2nd place. The model does NOT look at previous vote totals to make its predictions; rather, it looks at the career accolades and statistical accomplishments of players that have (or haven't) been inducted into the Hall of Fame and uses that knowledge to evaluate future players. The final model is actually a combination of 4 different sub-models, so it's possible for a sub-model to believe a player is a Hall of Famer but the overall model to not. Note that the Hall of Fame model does not currently predict pitchers. I plan to eventually revamp my Hall of Fame model as well, but my priority is still working on refining Player Value. As I've noted before, there are 2 ways to run players through the Hall of Fame model. One is using the initial dataset, meaning the model is not aware of any inductees from 2022 or 2023, so the last Hall of Famers that it's aware of are Ted Simmons, Derek Jeter, and Larry Walker from the 2020 class that was inducted in 2021 due to COVID. The other way is to use an updated dataset, informing the model of any inductees (and non-inductees) from the last few years. Under this approach, the model now knows that guys like David Ortiz, Gil Hodges, and Scott Rolen are Hall of Famers, while players like Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Jeff Kent are not. Generally this approach has the advantage of having more complete and recent data, but has declined in accuracy from the initial model. Without getting into the nitty gritty of predictive modeling, AUC is a measure of model accuracy and the closer it is to 1, the better. The initial dataset resulted in the model having an AUC of .9817, while the updated dataset gave the model an AUC of .9246. Since the initial dataset is still the more accurate one, that is the model whose prediction results I will be mainly sharing. However, if the updated model (or sub-models) think that any player should be inducted that the initial model didn't, then I'll be sure to mention that for each player as well. With the background aside, let's start taking a look each of the players on the ballot. I will order the players starting with who I would vote for, then who I would maybe vote for or be ok with being inducted, and lastly who I don't think should be inducted. Players I Would Vote For If I Had A BBWAA Ballot: Adrian Beltre, 3B (1998-2018) Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox I think unsurprisingly, Beltre is the one absolute, certified Hall of Fame lock on this year's ballot. Starting on the most traditional side of things, his 3,166 career hits rank 18th all-time. I believe that not using PEDs and obtaining 3,000 hits is an automatic qualifier for Hall of Fame induction. Of the 33 players in history with at least 3,000 hits, 26 are in the Hall of Fame. Of the 7 not in Cooperstown, one is hit king Pete Rose, who is banned from baseball. Four of those are players that have not had their Hall of Fame candidacy voted on yet, in Beltre, Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, and Miguel Cabrera. The remaining two are PED users Alex Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro. Additionally, Beltre's 477 career home runs rank 31st all-time. I also believe that not using PEDs and obtaining 500 home runs is an automatic qualifier for Hall of Fame induction. Of the 28 players in history with at least 500 home runs, 19 are in the Hall of Fame. From the 9 players that aren't, 2 haven't had their cases voted on yet (Pujols, Cabrera). The remaining 7 all used PEDs (Rodriguez, Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield). While Beltre failed to reach this iconic mark, he came very close. Only 2 players have more homers than him and also aren't in the 500 home run club, and both are now Hall of Famers (Lou Gehrig and Fred McGriff). In terms of accolades, Beltre appears to have gotten the short end of the stick compared to what his numbers suggest he deserved. However, his award accomplishments are still fairly impressive. His 5 Gold Gloves rank 8th among third basemen, tied with Ken Boyer, Doug Rader, and Hall of Famer Ron Santo. Of the 7 players with more Gold Gloves at third base, 3 are in the Hall of Fame (Robinson, Schmidt, Rolen), and one is still active (Nolan Arenado). Beltre's 4 Silver Sluggers rank 4th among third basemen, tied with Jose Ramirez and Matt Williams. Of the 3 players with more Silver Sluggers at third base, 2 are in the Hall of Fame (Boggs, Schmidt), and one is still active (Arenado). Beltre's 4 All-Star games are tied for 33rd among third basemen, with 10 other players such as Sal Bando, Al Rosen, and Kris Bryant. Even just by looking at awards we see that Beltre's combination of offensive and defensive skill was unique and only topped in history by the likes of Mike Schmidt and Nolan Arenado. On the more advanced statistical side, Beltre's career WAR of 93.5 ranks very favorably as the 3rd highest among third basemen in history, only behind Hall of Famers Schmidt and Eddie Mathews. Across all positions, his WAR ranks 40th all-time, behind 35 Hall of Famers, 3 PED users (Bonds, A-Rod, Clemens) and the yet-to-be-voted-on Pujols. On the offensive side of WAR, Beltre's career Rbat of 257 ranks 10th among primarily third basemen all-time, behind 6 Hall of Famers and John McGraw, who may have been inducted as a player if he hadn't already been inducted as a manager. On the defensive side of WAR, Beltre's career Rfield of 216 ranks 2nd among primarily third basemen all-time, only behind Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson. In terms of Player Value, Beltre ranks 13th all-time among third basemen at 374.03. That puts him behind 9 Hall of Famers and 3 third basemen that Player Value thinks are underrated in Darrell Evans, Harlond Clift, and Willie Kamm. I have 931 primarily third basemen by games played from 1912-2021, putting Beltre in the top 1.4%. While his Batting Value of 143.67 does not rank in the top 25 (38th), his Fielding Value of 226.73 ranks 6th all-time among third basemen. Even though Player Value thinks that Beltre gained most of his value with his glove, it doesn't think he was ever actually the best defensive third baseman in his league, giving him 0 Gold Gloves. It agrees with his 4 Silver Sluggers, but thinks he should have been a 6 time ALl-Star instead. Unsurprisingly, the Hall of Fame model predicts Beltre as a Hall of Famer, giving him a 65.22% probability. While 2 of the sub-models predicted Beltre as a Hall of Famer (FDA and SVM), 2 of them did not (GLM and NNet), giving him probabilities of 46.73% and 45.10%, respectively. The updated model gives Beltre a slightly higher probability at 71.40%, and also wins over the support of the NNet sub-model. Verdict: I hope I've been able to make it clear how blatantly obvious it is that Adrian Beltre belongs in the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest third basemen, both offensive and defensively, in the history of baseball. He should be a first-ballot inductee and receive a very high percentage of the vote. Todd Helton, 1B (1997-2013) Colorado Rockies Helton was very, very close to being inducted on last year's ballot, receiving 72.2% of the 75% needed. I supported Helton's case last year and part of my argument then was his similarity to recently inducted Hall of Famers Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker. You can check out this comparison on Stathead and see that all 3 of these players have 2000+ hits, 300+ home runs, 470+ doubles, 1250+ RBI, and slash lines above .300/.400/.515/.930. Amongst this trio, Helton has the most hits, RBI, and highest batting average. Another similar Hall of Famer that nearly fits those criteria is Jeff Bagwell, whose .297 career batting average falls slightly lower. In fact, just 13 players in baseball history have meet these criteria. Among them are 11 Hall of Famers in Martinez, Walker, Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Mel Ott, Chipper Jones, and Frank Thomas. The only non-Hall of Famers are Helton and PED user Manny Ramirez. Helton is clearly one of the more impressive offensive players in history. Helton fares decently on the accolade side with 5 All-Star appearances, 4 Silver Sluggers, and 3 Gold Gloves. His 5 All-Star games are only tied for 33rd most all-time among first basemen, but other recent first base inductees like Thomas, Bagwell, and Jim Thome also sit at 5 or less All-Star games. While the Silver Slugger is a fairly new award (since 1980), Helton is tied with obvious future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols for the 2nd most all-time among first basemen. Ahead of them with 5 is the still active (and potentially future Hall of Famer) Paul Goldschmidt. Helton's career WAR of 61.8 ranks 17th all-time among first basemen. Ahead of him are 11 Hall of Famers, 2 future Hall of Famers in Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, 2 PED users in Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire, and another potential future Hall of Famer in Joey Votto. A likely underrated aspect of Helton's game was his defense, as his Rfield ranks as the 9th most by a primarily first baseman in history. Other first base comparisons include ranking 13th in hits (behind 11 HOFers, Pujols/Cabrera, and Palmeiro), ranking 4th in doubles (behind HOFer David Ortiz and Pujols/Cabrera), ranking 8th in OBP (behind 7 HOFers and Ferris Fain), ranking 14th in slugging (behind 10 HOFers, Pujols, McGwire, and Carlos Delgado), and ranking 11th in OPS (behind 9 HOFers and McGwire). Player Value is particularly fond of Todd Helton, rating him as the 4th best first baseman from 1912-2021 with a Player Value of 699.13. While I don't believe that to be true, the metric is accurate enough in other areas to certainly at least suggest that Helton's value is vastly underrated. I have 894 first basemen based on games played during that span, putting Helton in the top 0.4%. Based solely on value provided at first base, Helton ranks 3rd. His Batting Value of 375.52 ranks 9th, behind 8 Hall of Famers. What really is the kicker is that Helton's Fielding Value of 329.22 ranks as the highest among all first basemen from 1912-2021. Player Value thinks that Todd Helton is clearly a Hall of Famer, if not one of the better players in history. On the accolade front, Player Value thinks Helton should have been a 6 time All-Star, won 5 Silver Sluggers, and won 5 Gold Gloves. Like last year, the Hall of Fame model predicts Helton as a Hall of Famer and this year gives him a probability of 73.03%. All 4 of the sub-models believe that Helton is worthy of induction. The updated model still predicts Helton as a Hall of Famer, but gives him a lower probability at 62.89% and he also loses support from 2 of the sub-models (FDA and GLM). Verdict: I think we allow the impact of playing for the Rockies, as well as our notions of what a typical first baseman looks like, to blur our perception of how valuable of a player Helton was. While Coors allowed him to hit more homers and therefore have a higher slugging and OPS when at home, the same wasn't true for 50% of Helton's career when playing on the road. Furthermore, much of his value wasn't from being a typical slugging first baseman with unconquerable power. Rather, Helton added value offensively by walking and getting on base a lot, as well as by hitting many doubles. He also added a great deal of value defensively with his glove. I think Helton is clearly deserving of induction. Andruw Jones, CF (1996-2012) Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers Jones is another player whose induction I supported last year and will carry over this year. My traditional argument for him is pretty simple. We've previously discussed my 500 home run automatic qualifying rule, and Jones got fairly close with 434 career homers, ranking 48th all-time. Between him and the soon to be effective Hall of Fame line of 477 homers once Beltre gets inducted are 17 other players. Of those 17, 8 are in the Hall of Fame (Musial, Stargell, Chipper Jones, Winfield, Yaz, Guerreo, Bagwell, Dawson). Also ahead of him is likely future Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran. The other 8 players were all more one-dimensional home run hitter types such as Adam Dunn, Dave Kingman, and Nelson Cruz. So while Andruw Jones' homers aren't quite enough to get him in on their own, they are very close. What puts him over the top is that he was also a terrific defender, winning 10 Gold Gloves in centerfield during his career. Only 5 other players have won 10 or more Gold Gloves in the outfield, and it's quite the list with 4 Hall of Famers (Clemente, Mays, Kaline, Griffey Jr.) and a future Hall of Famer in Ichiro Suzuki. Given these 2 feats, I don't see how anyone thinks Andruw Jones doesn't deserve to be in Cooperstown. Jones' career WAR of 62.7 ranks 14th among centerfielders, behind 10 Hall of Famers, Beltran, Mike Trout, and Kenny Lofton. His Rfield of 273 ranks 1st among primarily centerfielders in history, aligning with his many Gold Gloves. Those 434 homers rank 6th among centerfielders, behind 4 Hall of Famers (Mays, Mantle, Dawson, Griffery Jr.) and Beltran. Jones was a 5 time All-Star and finished 2nd in 2005 NL MVP voting after leading the NL with 51 homers and 128 RBI, but in terms of his Hall of Fame case it really comes down to his home run totals and defensive ability. Jones' Player Value of 334.01 ranks 16th all-time among centerfielders from 1912-2021. Ahead of him are 10 Hall of Famers, Beltran, the still active Mike Trout, and players that were denied induction in Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams, Fred Lynn. I personally am fine with all 3 of those players getting inducted. I have 920 primarily centerfielders based on games played during this span, putting Jones in the top 1.7%. Most of Jones' value comes from his Fielding Value of 156.89, which ranks 9th all-time among centerfielders from 1912-2021. Above him there are 4 Hall of Famers (Ashburn, Carey, Speaker, Mays), as well as other defensive greats like 6-time Gold Glove winner Dwayne Murphy and 8-time Gold Glove winner Paul Blair. Jones' Batting Value of 177.86 ranks 33rd among centerfielders from 1912-2021, between the likes of Lenny Dykstra and Jim Wynn. In terms of accolades, Player Value thinks Jones should have been a 7 time All-Star but that he should have only won 4 Gold Gloves. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Jones as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 25.02%. However, the FDA sub-model does believe Jones to be a Hall of Famer, with a probability of 69.68%, though this is the least accurate in terms of AUC of the initial 4 sub-models. One of the most important variables to the FDA sub-model is the difference between a player's Range Factor per game (RF/G) and the average RF/G at their position during their career. Jones had a career RF/G of 2.49, meaning he made about 2.49 outs per game, while the average player with his positional mix during his career had an RF/G of 2.22. That gives Jones a difference of +0.27, which ranks 1st among all players on the 2024 ballot that I ran through the model. Of the 264 players in the dataset I used for the model only 14 of them had a higher RF/G diff than Jones, including 11 Hall of Famers, hence his support from the initial version of the FDA sub-model. The updated model gives Jones an ever lower probability of 9.50% and has none of the sub-models supporting him. Verdict: I think it's pretty clear that Jones is among the game's greatest centerfielders, and that the Hall of Fame has had an issue inducting qualified centerfielders unless they were absolutely inner-circle players like Ken Griffey Jr. But Jones' case for Cooperstown is really as simple as the fact that he hit a whole bunch of home runs at an important defensive position while also being one of the best defenders at that position in history. Carlos Beltran, CF (1998-2017) New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants I supported Beltran's induction last year despite his involvement in the 2017 Houston Astros' sign-stealing scandal. I discussed that in more detail last year and won't rehash that any more here. I think that statistically Beltran is an obvious Hall of Famer and the only reason he wasn't inducted his first time around last year was because of the sign-stealing scandal. We've covered the near 500 home run argument with Beltre and Jones already, and the same is true for Beltran. His 435 career home runs sit just above Jones for the 47th most all-time and the 5th most among centerfielders, behind 4 Hall of Famers as mentioned above under Jones' section. While Beltran does not have the Gold Gloves or defensive ability of Jones, he was the more dynamic offensive player. His 2,725 career hits are also close to my 3,000 hit automatic qualifier that I mentioned for Beltre. Beltran ranks 62nd all-time in hits, and 9th all-time among centerfielders, behind 5 Hall of Famers. Beltran's offensive profile is very similar to that of Hall of Famer Andre Dawson, who racked up 2,774 hits in his career and slugged 438 homers while also playing in the outfield. Beltran is one of just 13 primarily outfielders in history with at least 2,700 hits and at least 400 home runs. That list consists of 11 Hall of Famers, PED user Barry Bonds, and Beltran. When we restrict that to just primarily centerfielders, Beltran is one of just 3 players in history, along with Hall of Famers Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr. Beltran was fairly decorated with 9 All-Star games, which ranks 7th among centerfielders behind 5 Hall of Famers and Mike Trout. He's tied with Hall of Famer Larry Dobby, as well as Fred Lynn and Negro-Leaguer Neil Robinson. Beltran also ranks 3rd in doubles among centerfielders, behind Hall of Famers Tris Speaker and Ty Cobb. He ranks 5th in RBI among centerfielders, behind 4 Hall of Famers. Beltran's career WAR of 70.1 ranks 8th all-time among centerfielders, behind 6 Hall of Famers and Mike Trout. While 60 WAR is a good general cutoff of Hall-of-Fame-caliber WAR, there are only 11 players in history with 70+ WAR not in Cooperstown. Among them are Beltran and Beltre on this year's ballot, the still active Trout, future Hall of Famer Pujols, banned from baseball Pete Rose, and PED users Bonds, A-Rod, and Palmeiro. The remaining 3 players include underrated second basemen Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich that many hope to be inducted by an Era Committee someday, and old-timer Bill Dahlen that played from 1891-1911. That is all to say that Beltran clearly has the WAR generally required to get inducted. Perhaps an underrated piece of Beltran's ability was his baserunning, as his 312 stolen bases aren't enough to initially amaze. However, he actually has the 4th highest stolen base percentage in history (with some playing time minimums). The 3 players ahead of him all have far fewer stolen base attempts, and Beltran is the only player in the top 15 with at least 300 stolen bases. This value is captured in his WAR, as Beltran's Rbaser of 55 ranks as the 14th most in history. Many people like to praise Barry Bonds as being the only member of the 400 home run, 400 stolen base club, but Beltran's 312 stolen bases and high percentage of success actually proved to be the more valuable combination (on the steals front, at least). Beltran's career Player Value of 416.39 ranks 10th among primarily centerfielders from 1912-2021, behind 8 Hall of Famers, Mike Trout, and Jim Edmonds. Again, with 920 centerfielders based on games played during this span, Beltran ranks in the top 1.1%. His Batting Value of 284.81 ranks 14th all-time among that same group, behind 8 Hall of Famers, Trout, Edmonds, Bernie Williams, Fred Lynn, and Andrew McCutchen. His Baserunning Value of 22.95 ranks 6th all-time among that same group. On the accolade front, Player Value thinks Beltran should have been a 7 time All-Star, 2 time Silver Slugger, and 1 time Gold Glover, as well as a 1 time Hank Aaron winner. Like last year, the Hall of Fame model predicts Beltran as a Hall of Famer, this year giving him a probability of 72.96%. Beltran also has induction support from each of the 4 sub-models. The updated model also thinks Beltran is a Hall of Famer and gives him an even larger probability of 83.57%, with each of the 4 sub-models still supporting him. One important note is that players not inducted for non-statistical reasons, such as the character clause (Pete Rose) or PED issues (Mark McGwire), were excluded from the list of players used to create the Hall of Fame model. That is likely the reason Beltran wasn't inducted last year, but I have decided to still use the model on him since it seems that voters aren't punishing Beltran as much and that his induction is likely to occur in the coming years. Verdict: I think Beltran is clearly a Hall of Famer on the statistical side. He played a premier defensive position and held his own while also being a tremendous baserunner and a well-rounded offensive threat. His involvement in the sign-stealing scandal certainly puts a blemish on his legacy but I don't think it is enough to disqualify his induction, as no other involved players were really involved and the Astros were not stripped of their World Series title. Billy Wagner, CP (1995-2010) Houston Astros, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox Wagner is another player that I supported last year, and received a solid 68.1% of the vote in his 8th year on the ballot. Wagner has just 2 years of eligibility on the ballot remaining, so hopefully he clear the 75% required for induction and avoids a similar fate to that of Jeff Kent last year. I've mentioned my 3,000 hits and 500 homers automatic qualifiers, and I hold similar stances (as do most people) for starting pitchers that reach 3,000 strikeouts or 300 wins. Relief pitchers don't have as much statistical history to rely on, so a standard Hall of Fame save threshold hasn't really been established. Using 600 saves (or even 500 saves) is too extreme as only 2 players have eclipsed those marks in history (Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman). I believe that 400 saves is a good threshold, as just 8 players have recorded that many, and most people believe that relievers aren't as valuable as other positions and therefore not as many should be in the Hall of Fame. Wagner's 422 career saves clears that mark and ranks him 6th all-time, behind Hall of Famers Rivera, Hoffman, and Lee Smith, as well as fellow ballot member Francisco Rodriguez and the denied Jeff Franco. Apart from the staggering save total, Wagner appeared in 7 All-Star games in his career, which is tied for the 5th most by a reliever. Ahead of him are 3 Hall of Famers (Rivera, Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm) and the still-active Craig Kimbrel. Wilhelm played in the late 1950s and early 1960s when there were actually 2 All-Star games per season, so he actually only had 5 unique All-Star seasons, putting him behind Wagner. Tied with Wagner at 7 All-Star games are 3 Hall of Famers (Hoffman, Smith, Rollie Fingers) and the still-active Aroldis Chapman. I think Wagner's accolades squarely put him among some Hall of Fame counterparts. After setting some minimum playing time requirements, Wagner's career ERA of 2.31 ranks 6th among relievers all-time. The top 4 are all currently active relievers whose ERA's will surely deteriorate as they log more innings over their careers; they all have less than 250 innings pitched, while Wagner sits at 903. The only reliever in history with a lower ERA and as many innings pitched as Wagner is quite literally the greatest closer of all-time and the first unanimous Hall of Fame inductee, Mariano Rivera. You can check for yourself on Stathead. Wagner's career WAR of 27.7 ranks as the 14th highest among relievers all-time. Above him are 6 Hall of Famers (Dennis Eckersley, Rivera, Wilhelm, Gossage, Smith, Hoffman). Many of the players above him also spent considerable time as starting pitchers before switching to a relief role, and the nature of pitching more innings allowed them to accumulate more value. While Wagner didn't start a single game in his career, 6 of the relievers with more WAR than him started over 100 games, and 3 started over 200 games (including Eckersley). Hall of Famers and part-time starters aside, the only relievers with more WAR than Wagner are John Hiller and Lindy McDaniel. Player Value is more generous towards Wagner, as his career Player Value of 135.82 ranks as the 4th highest among primarily relievers from 1912-2021. Ahead of him are Hall of Famers Rivera and Wilhelm, as well as Kent Tekulve. With 6,098 relievers based on games played during this span, Wagner ranks in the top 0.1%. His Pitching Value of 138.59 ranks as the 3rd highest, only behind Hall of Famers Rivera and Wilhelm. On the accolade side, Player Value thinks Wagner should have been just a 4 time All-Star, but that he should have won 2 Reliever of the Year awards, rather than only one. The Hall of Fame predictive model was not initially setup to work on pitchers, since evaluating pitchers and position players for the Hall of Fame is vastly different. Therefore I didn't run Wagner through the model this year since I haven't gotten around to setting up a pitcher version yet. Verdict: Wagner ranks very favorably among other Hall of Fame relievers in terms of career saves, All-Star games, career ERA given his innings pitched, and Player Value. I think he clearly is one of the best relievers in history and deserves to be honored for playing that role. Many people think that relievers are overrated and less of them should be inducted, given that they throw far fewer innings than starters. I counter that they play unique, important roles in often high leverage situations. If we think they weren't as valuable, why would teams be using them? He was given a role and stood out among his peers while doing so. Wagner's Player Value even ranks favorably compared to many starters, such as Hall of Famers Jack Morris and Catfish Hunter and other notable players like David Cone and Andy Pettitte. Francisco Rodriguez, CP (2002-2017) Los Angeles Angels, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles I supported K-Rod's induction last year and will continue to do so this year. As I mentioned under Wagner's section, I think eclipsing 400 saves is worthy of induction. At 437 saves, K-Rod ranks even higher at 4th all-time, behind 3 Hall of Famers in Rivera, Hoffman, and Smith. Nobody has as many saves as K-Rod that isn't in Cooperstown. K-Rod also holds the record for most saves in a single season, when he recorded 62 in 2008. No other closer has recorded more than 60 saves in a season. K-Rod finished 3rd in AL Cy Young voting that year and would win his 2nd Reliever of the Year award. Rodriguez's 6 All-Star games in his career puts him tied for 10th among relievers in history. We covered the relievers with 7+ All-Star games under Wagner's section, a list that is entirely comprised of 7 Hall of Famers, 2 active players, and Wagner. Tied with Rodriguez at 6 All-Star games are Hall of Famers Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter, as well as other notable closers in Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon. The last one is Roy Face, who benefitted from seasons with 2 All-Star games and thus only had 3 distinct All-Star seasons. I would not have been upset if Nathan or Papelbon were inducted, but did not support their induction when they appeared on the ballot in 2021. The separation between K-Rod and Nathan/Papelbon is thin, but I put K-Rod over the edge given his single season save record and the fact that he racked up about 1 more season of solid closer production, as measured by saves. K-Rod's ERA to innings pitched comparison isn't as good as Wagner's, as he ranks 9th in ERA among relievers with at least 900 innings pitched. However, his 2.86 ERA and 976 innings pitched does barely surpass Nathan's 2.87 ERA in 923 innings; Papelbon posted a lower ERA at 2.44, but only pitched 725 innings. Rodriguez's career WAR of 24.2 ranks just 25th all-time among primarily relievers, not really supporting his case for induction. However, Hall of Fame closer Bruce Sutter is right there with him at 24.1. Player Value separates these two slightly more, as K-Rod's career Player Value of 72.89 ranks 34th among primarily relievers, while Sutter's Player Value of 92.45 ranks 18th. Rodriguez's Pitching Value of 64.16 ranks 25th among primarily relievers from 1912-2021. Player Value doesn't like K-Rod on the accolade front either, thinking he should have been just a 1 time All-Star and that he shouldn't have won any Reliever of the Year awards. However, with 6,098 relievers based on games played during this span, K-Rod still ranks in the top 0.4%. Again, the Hall of Fame predictive model is not currently set up to be run on pitchers. Verdict: I may have created Player Value, but I'm going with my more traditional gut here. I think K-Rod's career saves total and single season saves record deserve proper recognition, and his career All-Star games and ERA (given his innings pitched) are good enough to deserve induction. Omar Vizquel, SS (1989-2012) Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays I'll start Vizquel's discussion by acknowledging his domestic violence and sexual harassment incidents that have greatly hindered his induction chances among the BBWAA electorate, as he declined from receiving 52.6% of the vote in 2020 to receiving just 19.5% of the vote in 2023. I discussed Vizquel's incidents in my Hall of Fame post last year, as well as similar cases with Andruw Jones and Francisco Rodriguez. I do not support any of these cases and think that they are objective examples of bad behavior. However, I do think that Hall of Fame voters should focus on evaluating the on-field baseball career of players, rather than serving as more investigative moral arbiters. There are almost certainly players already in Cooperstown that committed just as worse (if not worse) acts than Vizquel, and to my knowledge the exclusion of a player from the Hall of Fame for off-the-field reasons (outside of betting on baseball or PED usage) is a fairly recent revelation. Very similar to Andruw Jones' case (who again, also has a domestic violence past but received 58.1% of the vote in 2023), my argument for Vizquel's induction is traditional and two-sided. For Jones, it was nearly hitting 500 home runs. For Vizquel, it is nearly recording 3,000 hits. I discussed the 3,000 hit qualifier previously under Adrian Beltre's section. Vizquel's 2,877 career hits ranks 44th all-time, and we've already covered the 33 mostly Hall of Famers with 3,000 or more hits. Of the 10 players with more hits than Vizquel but not quite 3,000 hits, 9 of them are in the Hall of Fame. The other player is Barry Bonds, who would be an obvious Hall of Famer if not for his PED usage. Vizquel has the most hits of any player that isn't in the Hall of Fame, isn't an obvious future Hall of Famer (Pujols, Cabrera, Beltre, Ichiro), isn't banned from baseball (Rose), or isn't a former PED user. That in itself is a very strong Hall of Fame argument to me, but again the actual automatic qualifier is 3,000 hits, not 2,8777, so Vizquel needs a little more to get over the hump. Fortunately for Vizquel, he was also an elite fielder at a premier defensive position. His staggering 11 Gold Gloves are the 2nd most by a shortstop in history, only behind Hall of Fame defensive wizard Ozzie Smith. Vizquel is one of only 9 players in history to win 11 or more Gold Gloves, and 7 of those are in the Hall of Fame (Maddux, Kaat, Pudge, Smith, Robinson, Clemente, Mays). The other is first baseman Keith Hernandez, and it is certainly arguable that winning 11 Gold Gloves at a premier defensive position like shortstop is more impressive than winning 11 Gold Gloves at a more offensively inclined position like first base. It is also certainly arguable that Keith Hernandez should be in the Hall of Fame himself. Vizquel's career WAR of 45.6 ranks 30th all-time among primarily shortstops. The players ahead of him include 20 Hall of Famers, PED users A-Rod and Miguel Tejada, and 2 older players that many think should be inducted as well in Bill Dahlen and Jack Glasscock. WAR does not value Vizquel as much defensively as his Gold Gloves would suggest. His Rfield of 129 ranks 18th all-time among primarily shortstops, but ahead of him are 8 Hall of Famers, the aforementioned Dahlen and Glasscock, and other notable defensive gurus like Mark Belanger and Andrelton Simmons. Interestingly enough, Vizquel's career Player Value of 285.84 also ranks 30th all-time among primarily shortstops from 1912-2021. While that's behind most Hall of Famers, he sits just ahead of Hall of Famer Phil Rizzuto. With 955 primarily shortstops based on games played during this span, Vizquel ranks in the top 3.1%. His Fielding Value of 278.48 ranks 8th, with 4 Hall of Famers ahead of him. Part of the reason that Vizquel's Player Value is his "compiler" nature, where he was able to rack up hits towards his career total despite poor performance overall (Vizquel played 24 MLB seasons, until he was 45). I think this argument goes both ways. On the one hand, Vizquel got more career hits to help his Hall of Fame case, but that extra playing time also decreased his career Player Value to hurt his Hall of Fame case. On the other hand, had Vizquel retired after his age 39 season, his career hit total would suffer but his Player Value would have been about 50 higher to place him in the top 25. I plan to workshop a potential Hall of Fame version of Player Value (similar to what JAWS is to WAR) that doesn't penalize players that play poorly when they are old. The key idea here is that Vizquel's "compiling" more or less washes out, as his Cooperstown case gets helped and hurt in different ways had he not played as long. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Vizquel as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 21.39%. None of the 4 sub-models support his induction, though the most accurate initial sub-model in terms of AUC (SVM) gives him the highest probability at 43.40%. The updated model also doesn't think Vizquel is worthy of Cooperstown, giving him a slightly lower probability at 20.47%, with none of the updated sub-models supporting his induction either. Verdict: Vizquel has done some bad things that certainly don't deserve any praise. However, I prefer to look at Hall of Famers solely for their non-cheating on the field merits. I think Vizquel's career hits total puts him close to consideration, and that his elite fielding skills at a premier defensive position, as measured by his numerous Gold Gloves, puts him over the top. Even if he retired earlier and didn't get as many hits, he still would have won all those Gold Gloves and his Player Value would have been even higher, closer to the typical Hall of Fame range. Torii Hunter, CF/RF (1997-2015) Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers Torii Hunter is probably the most controversial (from a playing ability perspective) player that I support for induction. I supported him last year, and he barely survived on the ballot, receiving 6.9% of the 5% needed to remain. Hunter was even lower according to the publicly released ballots, but the private ballots at the end put him over the top. You can check out the 2023 tab in the public Ballot Tracker largely ran by Ryan Thibodaux and see that there Hunter only got 6.2%. This year, as of this writing, Hunter sits at just 8 votes from 174 publicly released ballots and 11 anonymous ballots, putting him at 4.3%. While that's a lower rate as last year, only about 48% of ballots have been revealed yet. I fear that Hunter may fall off the ballot this year given the wealth of other decent candidates that other voters may prefer. As I discussed last year, my argument for Hunter is embedded in my arguments for Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel, as well as what my argument was for the now inducted Scott Rolen. Jones hit nearly 500 home runs (434) and won 10 Gold Gloves, but had just 1,933 hits. Vizquel had nearly 3,000 hits (2,877) and won 11 Gold Gloves, but had only 80 homers. Rolen was also a defensive wizard and won 8 Gold Gloves, but his offensive skills were more balanced with 2,077 hits and 316 home runs, rather than as being power-concentrated as Jones or as contact-concentrated as Vizquel. Hunter's argument is precisely the same; he was stellar defensively and won 9 Gold Gloves, and was more than competent offensively with a balanced 2,452 hits and 353 home runs. For some reason many more people think that Jones is worthy of Cooperstown than Hunter. Hunter had 519 more hits than Jones, and 118 fewer home runs. Of those 519 extra hits, 115 of them were doubles and 3 of them were triples. If we look at the FanGraphs Guts! page to understand how valuable different types of hits are, and then reconcile that with the hit differences between Jones and Hunter, we can see that Hunter clearly comes out on top. Using those 2023 FanGraphs weights, I have Hunter at +458 value for singles, +143 for doubles, +5 for triples, and -236 for home runs, putting his total career hitting value over Jones at +370. (I know I'm ignoring other offensive events here, but that's what we have Player Value for below!). Those 9 Gold Gloves by Hunter are the 7th most by an outfielder in history. Ahead of him are Jones, future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki, and 4 Hall of Famers (Clemente, Mays, Kaline, Griffey Jr.). Hunter's career WAR of 50.7 ranks 26th all-time among centerfielders, behind 14 Hall of Famers. Also ahead of him are fellow ballot members Beltran and Jones, as well as other notable players that I wouldn't mind seeing inducted in Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton. So WAR isn't that fond of Hunter, and that trend continues when looking at the defensive piece of WAR. Hunter's career Rfield of 33 ranks just 186th among primarily outfielders in history. If we instead look at dWAR, which gives centerfielders more credit via the positional adjustment, Hunter ranks slightly more favorably at 76th among primarily outfielders. Player Value is also not overtly fond of Hunter, as his career Player Value of 215.80 ranks just 37th among primarily centerfielders from 1912-2021. As mentioned with Jones and Beltran, there are 920 primarily centerfielders based on games played during this span, which would put Hunter in the top 4%. Defensively, Hunter's Fielding Value of 143.38 ranks 15th among centerfielders, behind 4 Hall of Famers, Jones, Jim Edmonds, Paul Blair, and Mike Cameron, to name a few. Player Value agrees that Hunter was one of the better defensive centerfielders in history, but not quite good enough to boost his overall value up in Hall of Fame territory. On the accolade front, Player Value thinks Hunter should have only been a 2 time All-Star, only won 1 Silver Slugger, and even only won 1 Gold Glove. However, it does think he should have won a Platinum Glove in that year, something that only 5 other centerfielders can claim according to Player Value. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Hunter as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 17.76%, with none of the 4 sub-models supporting his induction either. The updated model also doesn't support his induction, but gives him a slightly higher probability at 18.23%, though still none of the sub-models think of him as a Hall of Famer. Verdict: This is another gut call that goes against what Player Value and WAR suggest, but I can't raitonalize my support of Rolen, Jones, and Vizquel without also supporting Hunter. The advanced metrics don't like Hunter's defensive abilities as much as the other 3 or as much as his Gold Gloves suggest. I think we should use the more advanced fielding metrics to make more informed Gold Glove selections in the future, but I don't think previous Gold Glove winners should be retroactively punished for what today's prevailing numbers suggest. A Gold Glove is meant to represent the best defender at each position in each league, and the winners should be treated as such when evaluating their candidacy. Practically every outfielder that has won as many Gold Gloves as Hunter has been inducted, and Hunter was certainly more valuable offensively than the likes of guys like Paul Blair or Garry Maddox. Advanced stats be damned, I think Hunter was a terrific fielder, and here's a video of some highlights to prove that. The first thing that comes to mind when I think of Torii Hunter is robbing home runs (this article ranks him as the 2nd best ever), which could be the reason behind his unimpressive advanced defensive numbers. Fans love to see a home run robbery, but systems like Player Value are more about the quantity of outs made rather than the difficulty of individual outs made. Modern systems like Outs Above Average do consider catch difficulty, but actually don't think robbing home runs is that difficult of a play for most fielders. This home-run-robbing catch by Brandon Nimmo in 2022 was given a whopping catch probability of 70% given its hang time of 5.2 seconds and that he was 76 feet from where the ball landed at the start of the play. Catch probability just doesn't do a great job at considering the difficulty of dealing with walls and timing jumps to rob home runs, in my opinion. Joe Mauer, C/1B (2004-2018) Minnesota Twins Mauer is the 2nd new addition to my hypothetical ballot this year, after the obvious inductee of Beltre. Given that Mauer was primarily a catcher, it's critical that we keep things relative to his position when developing our expectations (no catcher has ever hit 500 home runs or 3,000 hits, for example). Mauer's 2,123 career hits rank 9th all-time among catchers, behind 5 Hall of Famers, probably future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina, fellow ballot member Victor Martinez, and Jason Kendall. That's not enough to easily get him in, but it does rank him favorably towards the top. What we should note that outside of Hall of Famer Mike Piazza, none of the 8 catchers with more hits had as few plate appearances as Mauer. When it comes to contact, the man could flat out hit. His career batting average of .306 is again only topped by Piazza's .308 when it comes to catchers with more hits. After setting some playing time requirements, his batting average ranks 10th all-time among catchers, behind 6 Hall of Famers and 3 older players with significantly fewer hits that played when high batting averages were much more common. On the awards front, Mauer is one of only 12 catchers in history to win an MVP. Of the other 11 players, 7 are in the Hall of Fame, 2 should be in the Hall of Fame in my opinion (Thurman Munson and Elston Howard), 1 has yet to appear on the ballot (Buster Posey), and the odd man out is Bob O'Farrell. Mauer also won 3 batting titles by leading the league in batting average 3 times. Across all positions, this feat has been accomplished by 29 players in history. Of those 29 players, 22 are in the Hall of Fame. The exceptions are Miguel Cabrera (hasn't been on a ballot yet), Jose Altuve (still active), Pete Rose (banned from baseball), Ross Barnes & Pete Browning (both played prior to 1900), and Bill Madlock. Mauer is the only catcher in history to win at least 3 batting titles, outside of the great Negro Leagues catcher Josh Gibson. Heck, a catcher has only won the batting title 7 times in MLB history, and Mauer is responsible for 3 of those cases! He is also the only catcher to win the batting title in the AL. Reds Hall of Fame catcher Ernie Lombardi also won an MVP and 2 batting titles, and another Reds catcher Bubbles Hargrave won a batting tile in 1926. The most recent instance is Buster Posey's batting title in 2012, when he also won the MVP. Excluding the Negro Leagues, Mauer's .365 batting average in 2009 is the 4th highest in a season by a catcher in history, and he had nearly double the plate appearances than the 3 catchers ahead of him. Finishing out the awards front, Mauer's 5 Silver Sluggers are tied for the 5th most by a catcher in history (again, this award has only existed since 1980). Tied with him is Hall of Famer Gary Carter, potential future Hall of Famer Buster Posey, and another all-time great catcher in Jorge Posada. Ahead of him are Hall of Fame catchers Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza, and two other great hitting catchers whose inductions I would support in Lance Parrish and Brian McCann (who will be on next year's ballot). Mauer's career WAR of 55.2 ranks 9th all-time among catchers, behind 8 Hall of Famers. He sits ahead of the average Hall of Fame catcher WAR of 53.6, making him clearly worthy of induction according to WAR. Mauer's peak was particularly impressive, as the WAR from his 7 best seasons is 39.0, which ranks 5th all-time among catchers, behind 4 Hall of Famers that you may have heard of (Carter, Bench, Piazza, Pudge). At his best, Mauer was one of the greatest catchers of all-time. Mauer's career Player Value of 212.72 is less impressive and ranks 28th among primarily catchers from 1912-2021. With 1,469 primarily catchers based on games played during this span, Mauer ranks in the 1.9%. His Batting Value of 147.60 ranks 25th. What probably hurts Mauer are his latter years as a first baseman. You can find his year by year values here by downloading the single season Minnesota Twins catcher and first base rankings. After further analysis, it was actually his latter years of still trying to catch that were his least valuable. For awards, Player Value thinks Mauer should have won 1 Hank Aaron award, 1 Gold Glove, 6 Silver Sluggers, and been a 4 time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Mauer as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 36.54%. However, the NNet sub-model does support his induction with a probability of 55.89%. The updated model also doesn't think Mauer is a Hall of Famer, but gives him a slightly higher probability at 40.15%. The updated NNet sub-model also likes Mauer slightly more and supports his induction, with a probability of 77.64%. Two of the variables that the NNet sub-model finds most important are All-Star games and singles, which Mauer fares decently at among his 2024 ballot peers that I've ran through the model, ranking 4th and 7th, respectively. Verdict: Mauer was clearly one of the best hitting catchers in history, and wasn't a defensive pushover either, winning 3 Gold Gloves and posting a positive career Fielding Value of 62.72. A catcher winning an MVP is a rare and impressive feat, and a catcher winning a batting title is even rarer, let alone 3. His peak according to WAR was clearly valuable enough for the Hall of Fame, and he still played long enough to post impressive career hits totals for a catcher. Chase Utley, 2B (2003-2018) Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers Utley rounds out my hypothetical 10 person ballot and is the 3rd newcomer this year after Beltre and Mauer. I don't think I'm as high on Utley as others, and might have trouble finding a spot for him on next year's ballot given the arrivals of Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, particularly if not many players are inducted this year. Parsing Utley out from other contemporaries like Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia, and Ian Kinsler is a little difficult. As I've referenced before, Utley was a power hitting second baseman; do you know how rare that was in the National League? His 259 home runs rank 7th all-time among second basemen, behind 4 Hall of Famers, PED user Robinson Cano, and Jeff Kent. However, Kent is the all-time home run leader among second basemen and fell off the ballot last year, so according to BBWAA standards this apparently isn't good enough for induction. Utley played 16 seasons but only about 10 of those seasons were really complete, so most of his other career totals don't compare favorably to other second basemen. What will matter is how good he was during those years. Like with Carlos Beltran, I will note Utley's impressive career stolen base percentage of 87.5%, which ranks 3rd all-time after setting some minimum playing requirements. He also has about double the stolen base attempts of the 2 players ahead of him. Utley stole 154 bases and was caught just 22 times. In 2009, he stole 23 bases without being caught once. That is the 2nd most steals in a season without being caught, and stood as the record for 14 years until Trea Turner broke it this past season. In terms of awards, Utley's 4 Silver Sluggers are tied for the 4th most by a second baseman (award since 1980). Ahead of him are Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg, the still active Jose Altuve, and PED user Robinson Cano. Tied with him are Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio, should be Hall of Famer Lou Whitaker, second baseman home run king (and should be Hall of Famer) Jeff Kent, and the longevity king Julio Franco. Utley's 6 All-Star games are tied for the 16th most by a second baseman. With the exception of the still active Altuve, PED user Cano (who hasn't appeared on the ballot yet), and Bobby Richardson, every second baseman with 7 or more All-Star games has been inducted. Players tied with Utley include should be Hall of Famer Bobby Grich and Negro League players Piper Davis, Pat Patterson, and Sammy Hughes. Also tied with him are Willie Randolph (who I wouldn't mind seeing inducted), Johnny Temple (who actually only had 4 distinct All-Star seasons), and Gil McDougald (who had an impressive but short 10 season career). Utley's career WAR of 64.5 ranks 15th all-time among second baseman, behind 10 Hall of Famers, should be Hall of Famers Whitaker and Grich, PED user Cano, and perhaps another should be Hall of Famer in Randolph. While Utley may not be the best second baseman not currently in Cooperstown, that doesn't mean he isn't worthy. Like Mauer, Utley's peak ranks even higher, as the WAR from his 7 best seasons of 49.3 ranks 9th all-time among second baseman, behind 7 Hall of Famers and PED user Cano. Utley's peak was even more impressive if we get a little narrower. From 2005 to 2009, Utley had 5 consecutive seasons of 7+ WAR, which is tied for the 4th most 7+ WAR seasons by a second baseman in history. The only 3 players with more are all Hall of Famers in Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, and Eddie Collins. The 2 players tied with him are also Hall of Famers in Joe Morgan and Charlie Gehringer. At his peak, Utley was clearly one of the best second basemen of all-time. Utley's career Player Value of 378.24 is slightly less impressive, and ranks as the 23rd most by a primarily second baseman from 1912-2021. Outside of positional comparisons, that Player Value is still very high, however. That amount would rank him 10th among left fielders or right fielders, 11th among catchers, 12th among center fielders, and 13th among third basemen. Player Value believes that some positions just have more variability in the quality of players that play them. I have 1,033 primarily second basemen based on games played during this span, which puts Utley in the top 2.2%. Utley's Batting Value of 248.88 ranks 18th among second basemen. Regarding awards, Player Value thinks Utley should have won 1 Hank Aaron award, 1 Gold Glove, 5 Silver Sluggers, and been a 7 time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Utley as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 8.92%, with none of the sub-models supporting his case either. The updated model feels similarly, giving him a slightly lower probability at 8.04% and again no support from any of the sub-models. Verdict: At first glance, Utley's career numbers don't stand out as much compared to some of his peers. However, after honing in on his peak years, it's clear that Utley was one of the greatest second basemen in history, and I think that impressive peak is enough to merit his induction. Players I Think Are Close OR That I Would Vote For If More Than 10 Votes Were Allowed: Victor Martinez, C/DH/1B (2002-2018) Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox Martinez is a new addition to the ballot this year that I initially had in more solid "yes" territory but have slotted down a little after some more consideration. The reason I liked Martinez was that he has solid batting numbers for a catcher. His 2,153 career hits rank 6th among catchers behind 3 Hall of Famers (both Pudges and Ted Simmons), a likely future Hall of Famer (Yadier Molina), and Jason Kendall. His 423 career doubles rank 4th, behind 2 Hall of Famers (Rodriguez, Simmons) and fellow new ballot member Joe Mauer, who appears to have decent induction odds. His 246 career home runs currently are tied for 14th, with 8 Hall of Famers ahead of him. Among players that spent at least 40% of their time at catcher and that had at least 5,000 career plate appearances, Martinez's career batting average of .295 ranks 13th, with 8 Hall of Famers ahead of him along with Mauer, Buster Posey, Joe Torre (inducted as a manager but really worthy as a player as well), and Manny Sanguillen. However, he ranks slightly worse in more accurate measurements of offensive quality like slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. The reason I've lowered my opinion of Martinez slightly is because he wasn't entirely a catcher. He appeared in 1,973 games in his career, with 858 games as a catcher (43.5%), 869 games as a DH (44%), and 214 games as a first baseman (10.8%). So you can argue that he was really primarily a DH during his career, or at least half DH half catcher. Compared to the 5 players in the Hall of Fame that spent at least 40% of their games at DH, Martinez doesn't quite stack up, ranking last in hits, HR, RBI, OPS, and WAR. While Molitor was also about a 44% DH, Frank Thomas was about a 56% DH and spent the rest of his time at first base, another offensive heavy position. Harold Baines was about a 58% DH and spent most of his other time in right field, Edgar Martinez was about a 68% DH and spent most of his other time at third, and David Ortiz was a whopping 84% DH and spent most of his other time at first. So while Martinez may not compare as well to the current Hall of Fame DHs, most of them spent notably more time at DH and also played more offensively inclined positions when not a DH. As another point of comparison, Joe Mauer was really only about 50% catcher, 32% first baseman, and 17% DH, so comparing his career stats to other players like Ivan Rodriguez who was 95% a catcher may also be flawed in the same way. Martinez's career WAR of 32.0 ranks just 34th among catchers, but his Rbat of 176 ranks 16th behind effectively 11 Hall of Famers, 2 contemporaries in Mauer and Posey, and Gene Tenace. Martinez was basically a catcher from 2002 to 2011, during which he accumulated 24.2 of his WAR (76%), which ranks as the 3rd highest WAR by a catcher during that span, behind Mauer and Jorge Posada. If we focus on just 2004 to 2010, he ranks 2nd. If we look at the entire 2000s decade from 2000 to 2009, he ranks 6th despite not playing any games at all in 2000 or 2001 and only playing a total of 61 games in 2002 and 2003. Despite appearing in slightly more games as a DH, Martinez accumulated most of his value as a catcher and was one of the best catchers in the league while doing so. Martinez's career Player Value of 85.93 ranks just 101st among primarily catchers (by value) from 1912-2021. His career Batting Value of 102.37 ranks more favorably at 45th, but his Fielding Value of -15.47 ranks as the 16th worse. Martinez was mainly a catcher while in Cleveland and Boston, during which he posted 97.0 of his Player Value and 104.5 of his Batting Value. In Detroit he was mainly a DH, during which he posted a -11.1 Player Value and -2.2 Batting Value. Player Value agrees that Martinez should have won 2 Silver Sluggers, but thinks he should have been a 4-time All-Star rather than 5-time. With 1,469 primarily catchers during this span based on games played, Martinez would rank in the top 6.9%. By value, Martinez would rank 8th among DHs during this span, behind 2 Hall of Famers in Ortiz and Martinez. With around 152 primarily DHs based off of games played, Martinez would rank 16th, placing in the top 10.5%, behind the previously mentioned 5 Hall of Fame DHs. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Martinez as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 9.28%, with no support from any of the 4 sub-models. The updated model also doesn't support his case, but does give him a higher probability at 11.71%. None of the updated sub-models support Martinez for induction either. Verdict: I'm mainly a "no" for now on Martinez because I only get 10 spots. I hope he reaches the 5% necessary to keep him on the ballot for next year. According to the Ballot Tracker as of this writing, that doesn't seem to be the case given that he currently has just 1 vote out of the 185 publicly shared ballots (0.5%). This won't be my first time somewhat supporting a substantially failed candidate, as in 2022 I put Prince Fielder in this same category and he ended up receiving just 2 out of 394 votes (also 0.5%). Even in the hypothetical scenario where Martinez does make it to next year's ballot, it may be hard giving him my hypothetical vote depending on who all gets inducted this year, as next year's ballot will introduce some more solid first year candidates like Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and several others. I think Martinez is an underrated candidate and was one of the best catchers of his time, but that others allow his later years as a DH distort that reality. Bobby Abreu, RF (1996-2014) Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers Abreu retains his spot in my holdover list from last year. He remains a player that I don't entirely feel comfortable supporting given the fact that I never thought of him as a Hall of Famer while he was playing and I was growing up. As I noted last year, I will acknowledge that his best seasons from 1998-2004 were when I was either not alive or still quite young. The statistical case for Abreu does grow more and more on me each year, but this year I don't think he's one of the 10 most deserving players. Abreu's career WAR of 60.2 ranks 20th among primarily right fielders. Ahead of him are 14 Hall of Famers, PED user and fellow ballot member Gary Sheffield, banned from baseball Shoeless Joe Jackson, still active Mookie Betts, and 2 players that I think should be in the Hall of Fame in Dwight Evans and Reggie Smith. He sits just above Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero and future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki. Clearly, according to WAR, Abreu is worthy. How is that the case, when his name doesn't scream stardom and his accolades only consist of 2 All-Star games, 1 Gold Glove, and 1 Silver Slugger? The answer is that Abreu produced value on ways that largely went unseen and under appreciated, such as walks. His career OBP of .395 ranks 7th among players that spent at least 50% of their time in right field and that had at least 5,000 career plate appearances. Ahead of him are 5 Hall of Famers and Elmer Valo, who had nearly 4,000 fewer plate appearances than Abreu. While Abreu wasn't necessarily devoid of power (288 career HR and 2 seasons of 30+), he did lack the power typically requested by right fielders, without making up for it with an elite glove like Ichiro or Clemente. Abreu's extra-base hit of choice were doubles, and his 574 career doubles are the 4th most by a right fielder behind 3 Hall of Famers. His 1,476 career walks also rank 4th among right fielders, behind 3 Hall of Famers. His 400 career stolen bases rank 7th among right fielders, with the 6 players ahead of him including 2 Hall of Famers and Ichiro. Abreu's career Player Value of 266.10 ranks 21st among primarily right fielders from 1912-2021. Ahead of him are 15 Hall of Famers and again the special caveats of Sheffield, Betts, Reggie Smith, and Dwight Evans, as well as an additional PED user in Sammy Sosa. Player Value groups Shoeless Joe Jackson with the left fielders. Vladimir Guerrero and Enos Slaughter have higher Player Values than Abreu despite having lower WARs, which makes me more partial to Abreu's Player Value ranking given that those 2 players are both Hall of Famers. With 992 primarily right fielders based on games played during this span, Abreu ranks in the top 2.1%. Abreu's Batting Value of 237.53 ranks 17th, behind 12 Hall of Famers, Sheffield, Smith, Evans, and Bryce Harper. His Baserunning Value of 17.06 ranks 5th, behind Ichiro, Bobby Bonds, Hall of Famer Kiki Cuyler, and Kirk Gibson. Player Value agrees that Abreu should have been a 2-time All-Star and won 1 Gold Glove, but doesn't think he should have won a Silver Slugger. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Abreu as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 34.41%. However, the incredibly decisive FDA sub-model does support Abreu's case with a probability of 99.86%, though this is the least accurate in terms of AUC of the initial sub-models. I mentioned under Andruw Jones that this model likes the RF/G difference from positional average variable, but another variable it likes is the difference between a player's stolen bases and caught stealings. Abreu stole 400 bases in his career and was caught just 128 times, putting him at a net gain of 272. That ranks 3rd on the 2024 ballot members that I ran through the model, behind Reyes and Rollins. Of the 264 players in the initial dataset that I trained the model with, only 20 of them have a higher SB difference than Abreu, including 12 Hall of Famers. The updated model also doesn't predict Abreu as a Hall of Famer, giving him a slightly higher probability of 35.68%. Abreu loses his FDA sub-model support, but gains support from the SVM sub-model which gives him a probability of 54.09%, though the updated SVM sub-model took a big hit in accuracy with a much lower AUC of .8544, the least accurate of the updated sub-models. Abreu doesn't stand out in any of that updated sub-models 6 most important variables (AS, R, 1B, RBI, R per season, AVG), so it could just be a combination of fairing decently in several categories. Verdict: The name Bobby Abreu doesn't quite have that Hall of Fame "ring" to it, which is why I avoided placing him on my hypothetical ballot in previous years. At this point I think I am a "yes" on Abreu, and admittedly regret not having him on my ballot last year when I only used up 9 of the 10 spots. This year, however, my 10 spots are full and I'm not currently willing to place Abreu over any of the over 10 players. It has become more clear that Abreu was one of the best offensive right fielders in history and obtained that value by walking, hitting doubles, and stealing rather than hitting home runs and being a great defender like is more common for right fielders. I do think some people hype up Abreu a little too much and claim him as superior to Tony Gwynn and Vladimir Guerrero; Player Value does a good job of refuting that while still showing that Abreu is worthy of induction. Jimmy Rollins, SS (2000-2016) Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox Rollins was on my list of close players each of the last 2 seasons, and stays in that spot this year. This year I'm advocating for his long time teammate and double play partner Chase Utley to get inducted, but not him. You can view a comparison of these 2 players here. While Rollins has more hits, steals, and Gold Gloves, Utley clearly has the higher WAR along with more home runs, RBI, and better offensive rate stats across the board. Even so, these 2 guys are close and had their careers tied close enough together that inducting one and not the other may be an injustice, similar to how Alan Trammel is currently a Hall of Famer but Lou Whitaker isn't. Rollins' career WAR of 47.6 ranks 26th in history among shortstops, but the only non-Hall of Famers ahead of him are the PED using A-Rod, 19th century players Bill Dahlen and Jack Glasscock, and then Bert Campaneris and Jim Fregosi. So while Rollins isn't quite at the Hall of Fame edge for WAR, he is close. His 2,455 career hits rank 14th among shortstops, behind 10 Hall of Famers, A-Rod, Dahlen, and fellow ballot member Omar Vizquel. His 511 career doubles rank 7th among shortstops, behind 5 Hall of Famers and A-Rod. His 470 career stolen bases rank 11th among shortstops, behind 5 Hall of Famers, Dahlen, Campaneris, Maury Wills, Herman Long, and fellow ballot member Jose Reyes. His 4 Gold Gloves are tied for the 7th most by a shortstop, along with Brandon Crawford, Tony Fernandez, Andrelton Simmons, and Alan Trammel, only 1 of which is in the Hall of Fame. Ahead of this group are 3 Hall of Famers, Vizquel, Dave Concepcion, and Mark Belanger. Rollins is also one of 14 shortstops to be named MVP, along with 6 Hall of Famers and 2 PED users in A-Rod and Miguel Tejada. Looking at the 2000s decade, Rollins ranks 3rd in WAR among primarily shortstops from 2000-2009, behind Derek Jeter and Tejada, despite hardly playing in the 2000 season. Focusing instead on perhaps Rollins' peak from 2001-2012, he ranks 2nd behind only Jeter. Rollins' career Player Value of 229.21 ranks just 52nd among primarily shortstops from 1912-2021. There are 955 primarily shortstops based on games played during this span, putting Rollins in the top 5.4%. His Batting Value of 147.62 ranks 31st, while his Fielding Value of 52.60 ranks 162nd. His Baserunning Value of 28.98 ranks 6th, behind 3 Hall of Famers, Campaneris, and Wills. Player Value thinks Rollins should have just been a 1-time All-Star and that he shouldn't have won any Gold Gloves, but agrees that he deserved 1 Silver Slugger. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 34.75%. However, the SVM sub-model, which was the most accurate initial sub-model in terms of AUC, does predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer with a probability of 72.69%. Two variables this sub-model likes are runs and singles, which Rollins ranks 5th and 4th in respectively among his 2024 ballot peers that I ran through the model. That sub-model also values defensive innings, which Rollins ranks 3rd in. Omar Vizquel takes the top 1-2 spos in a lot of those categories (and this was the sub-model that likes Vizquel the most), but Rollins still receives a higher probability than Vizquel due to his better stats for some of the other variables. The updated model also doesn't predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer, but has him pretty close at a probability of 46.83%. Rollins retains his support from the SVM sub-model, which gives him an even higher probability of 87.37%, though again this is now the least accurate updated sub-model in terms of AUC. That updated sub-model likes the runs scored per season variable, which Rollins ranks 2nd in behind only Reyes, with 101.19. He also gains the support of the updated NNet sub-model, which gives him a probability of 57.84%. That sub-model also likes the runs, singles, and runs per season variables. Verdict: Similar to Abreu, you can split the shortstop statistical leaders in enough ways for Rollins to have a solid argument, given that he ranks well in terms of hits, doubles, and stolen bases. Utley getting inducted may also boost his chances so that both members of the tag team can be enshrined. He also appears to have been the best shortstop in the NL during his prime, which is another good case for induction. Nontheless, I didn't see Rollins as one of the top 10 guys on the ballot this year so he doesn't get a hypothetical vote, but could in future years. I do think the fact that some similar players like Campaneris and Wills aren't inducted is something that hurts his argument. Mark Buehrle, SP (2000-2015) Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins Buehrle rounds out the list of guys that I wouldn't vote for this year but would like to see on next year's ballot. This was the same deal when I discussed his candidacy last year. He is the winner of 4 Gold Gloves, one of only 13 pitchers in history that can claim such a feat. Among the other 12 players are 6 Hall of Famers (Maddux, Kaat, Gibson, Mussina, Niekro, Palmer) and likely future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke. Buehrle lacks the starting pitcher Hall of Fame clinchers of 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts. In fact, Buehrle failed to even reach 2,000 strikeouts, as his 1,870 career strikeouts rank just 107th among starters in history. Since the start of the expansion era in 1961, only 5 pitchers out of 54 total have managed to throw at least 3,000 innings and strike out less batters than Buehrle, which is a strong condemnation of his strike out effectiveness. Buehrle's career ERA of 3.81 is also not particularly impressive, ranking 43rd out of those same 54 pitchers. Jack Morris is the only Hall of Famer with a higher ERA (3.90) and at least 3,000 innings pitched across all of history, and Morris was a particularly controversial inductee. Buehrle's 214 career wins rank 94th among starters, but are the 11th most in the Wild Card era behind 3 Hall of Famers, 3 future Hall of Famers, and a PED user. While we may think of innings pitched as simply a measure of opportunity, they actually are a measure of success in some way since they require the pitcher getting the batter out. To that end, Buehrle has the 6th most innings pitched in the Wild Card era. Buehrle's career WAR of 59.1 ranks more favorably as the 65th highest among starters in history. While that may sound unimpressive, ahead of him are 46 Hall of Famers. Of the 18 non-Hall of Fame pitchers with a higher WAR, there are 5 pitchers that played in the 1800s, 4 pitchers that are still active and are all likely future Hall of Famers, another likely future Hall of Famer that hasn't yet appeared on the ballot in CC Sabathia, 3 PED users (Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Kevin Brown), and Curt Schilling who wasn't elected because of his character clause issues. The only remaining pitchers with a higher WAR than Buehrle that aren't in Cooperstown are Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant, Tommy John, and David Cone, each of which I think has a solid case for induction. Even though Buehrle may not be the absolute Hall of Fame WAR border, he does rank ahead of 25 Hall of Fame pitchers (not counting Babe Ruth). During the course of his career from 2000 to 2015, Buehrle ranked 2nd in WAR behind only Hall of Famer Roy Halladay. Since 2000, he ranks 7th in WAR behind Halladay and 5 likely future Hall of Famers. Buehrle's career Player Value of 82.18 ranks just 128th among primarily starting pitchers from 1912-2021. With 2,296 primarily starters based on games played during this span, Buehrle ranks in the top 5.6%. His Fielding Value of 84.14 ranks 24th, but his Pitching Value sits at a very mediocre 12.57. Player Value thinks Buehrle should have gone to just 3 All-Star games rather than 5, and that he should have won 2 Gold Gloves rather than 4. Since Buehrle was a pitcher, the Hall of Fame model wasn't run on him. Verdict: Buehrle probably remains the one player that I remain the most torn on. If inducted, he would be an extreme Hall of Fame starting pitcher example in terms of career strikeouts and ERA. His career wins totals are alright, but his accolades are relatively lacking with no Cy Youngs and only 5 All-Star appearances. However, his innings pitched are impressive and his career WAR also suggests that he could be worthy. The fact that he ranks 2nd in WAR during his career is especially moving, but the fact that his Player Value doesn't also stand out has me not fully convinced that Buehrle is ultimately deserving. Player Value greatly prefers his contemporaries of Tim Hudson, Johan Santana, and Felix Hernandez. Players I Wouldn't Vote For Due To PED Usage But That Are Otherwise Deserving: Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B (1994-2016) New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers Statistically, A-Rod is clearly deserving of induction. We've mentioned the 500 home run and 3,000 hit marks, and he's cleared both of those easily. His 696 home runs are the 6th most all-time and the most by a primarily shortstop, while his 3,115 hits are the 23rd most all-time and the 5th most by a primarily shortstop. His 2,086 career RBI are the 4th most all-time and the most by a primarily shortstop. His career WAR of 117.5 is the 12th highest all-time and the 2nd most by a primarily shortstop. A-Rod won 10 Silver Sluggers in his career, 7 of which were as a shortstop, which is the 3rd most by a shortstop behind Hall of Famers Barry Larkin and Cap Ripken Jr. His 14 All-Star games are tied with Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Ernie Banks for the 3rd most by a shortstop, behind Hall of Famers Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken Jr. He is one of just 11 players in history to win at least 3 MVP awards, with 7 of the other 10 being in the Hall of Fame. The exceptions are the still-active Mike Trout, fellow PED user Barry Bonds, and Albert Pujols who has yet to appear on the ballot. A-Rod's career Player Value of 820.88 is the most by a primarily shortstop and one of the highest across all positions from 1912-2021. With 955 primarily shortstops based on games played during this span, A-Rod ranks in the top 0.1%. His Player Value as a shortstop specifically is 571.32, which ranks 6th. His Batting Value of 656.04 also ranks 1st, while his Baserunning Value of 24.26 ranks 9th. Player Value thinks A-Rod should have won 7 Hank Aaron awards, 11 Silver Sluggers, and been an 11 time All-Star. Each of those are the most by a shortstop in Player Value's redistribution of awards. The Hall of Fame model was not built to run on PED users, since their reason for lack of induction is outside of the confines of their statistical/accolade worthiness. As such, I did not run A-Rod through the model and have no results to share on that front. Verdict: As I wrote last year, I don't think A-Rod deserves induction because of his PED usage. I do think that like Bonds and Clemens, A-Rod's greatness stands out even more than his fellow otherwise-Hall-of-Fame-worthy-PED-users like Sosa, McGwire, etc., but A-Rod also cheated when the rules were more clearly defined and testing was implemented. If Bonds and Clemens aren't in, then A-Rod shouldn't be in either. Once more obvious PED users begin getting inducted, then A-Rod should get in as well. Manny Ramirez, LF/RF (1993-2011) Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays Statistically, Manny is also clearly deserving of induction. We've mentioned the 500 home run automatic qualifier, and Manny's 555 career home runs rank as the 15th most all-time, behind 8 Hall of Famers, 5 fellow PED users (Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro), and Pujols who hasn't appeared on a ballot yet. Manny's 1,831 career RBI rank as the 20th most all-time, again behind only Hall of Famers, fellow PED users, or obvious future Hall of Famers yet to appear on the ballot. Among primarily left fielders, Manny's home runs rank 2nd all-time behind fellow PED user Bonds, and his RBI rank 4th all-time behind Bonds and Hall of Famers Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski. Manny's career WAR of 69.3 ranks 8th among primarily left fielders, behind Bonds, Pete Rose, and 5 Hall of Famers. His 12 All-Star games are the 6th most among primarily left fielders, behind Bonds, Pete Rose, and 3 Hall of Famers, one of which (Minnie Minoso) benefited from some of the two All-Star game years and really only had 9 All-Star seasons, including his 2 Negro League All-Star seasons. Manny won 9 Silver Sluggers, 8 of which were as an outfielder, ranking 3rd all-time among outfielders behind Bonds and the still-active Mike Trout. His career OPS of .996 effectively ranks 3rd among primarily left fielders behind Bonds and Hall of Famer Ted Williams. In terms of his actual on the field production, Manny Ramirez is clearly the best left fielder not currently in Cooperstown. Manny's career Player Value of 445.77 ranks 6th among primarily left fielders from 1912-2021, behind Bonds and 4 Hall of Famers. With 1,101 primarily left fielders based on games played during that span, Manny ranks in the top 0.5%. His Batting Value of 485.22 ranks even better at 3rd, behind only Bonds and Hall of Famer Ted Williams. Player Value thinks the actual voters did pretty well during Manny's career, awarding him with 11 All-Star games and 9 Silver Sluggers. One poor spot on Manny's career is his defensive ability, as his Fielding Value of -32.84 ranks as the 11th worst among primarily left fielders. WAR agrees with this blemish, as his Rfield of -129 is the 2nd worst in history by someone who played at least 40% of their games in left field. Since it's the PED usage that is blocking Manny from induction, I didn't run him through the Hall of Fame model. Verdict: Again as stated last year and as is the case with A-Rod, Manny deserves to be inducted based on his stats and accolades, but I don't think he should be inducted due to his PED usage. Once inducting PED users truly becomes the norm, then Manny should be inducted. Gary Sheffield, RF/LF/3B/DH (1988-2009) Florida Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, New York Mets Statistically, Sheffield is also clearly deserving of induction. Again, we've mentioned that 500 home run automatic qualifier mark, and Sheffield's 509 career homers rank 27th all-time behind 18 Hall of Famers, 6 fellow PED users, and 2 players not yet on the ballot (Pujols and Cabrera). His home run total ranks 7th among primarily right fielders, behind 5 Hall of Famers and fellow PED user Sammy Sosa. His 1,702 RBI also rank 7th among right fielders, behind 6 Hall of Famers. His 2,689 career hits rank 18th among right fielders, behind 14 Hall of Famers, Dave Parker, Rusty Staub, and future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki who hasn't yet appeared on the ballot. Sheffield's WAR of 60.5 ranks 19th among right fielders, behind 14 Hall of Famers, Mookie Betts (still active), Shoeless Joe Jackson (banned), Dwight Evans, and Reggie Smith. His 9 All-Star games are tied for 9th among right fielders, along with Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero and Rocky Colavito (who benefitted from seasons with multiple All-Star games). Every right fielder with more All-Star games is in the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Ichiro. Sheffield is one of just 5 players that spent 40% of their games in right field with over 10,000 plate appearances and an OPS above .900; joining him are inner-circle Hall of Famers in Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Hank Aaron, and Frank Robinson. Sheffield's career Player Value of 377.14 ranks 10th among primarily right fielders from 1912-2021. Ahead of him are 8 Hall of Famers and Dwight Evans, who should also be a Hall of Famer. With 992 primarily right fielders based on games played during this span, Sheffield ranks in the top 1%. His Batting Value of 419.12 is even more impressive and ranks 6th, behind 5 Hall of Famers. Like Ramirez, Sheffield struggled defensively; his Fielding Value of -49.19 ranks dead last among right fielders. WAR agrees that Sheffield was the worst defensive right fielder in history, as his Rfield of -195 also ranks dead last among players that spent at least 40% of their games in right field. Across all positions, his Rfield ranks as the 2nd lowest in history, ahead of only Derek Jeter. Since it's the PED usage that is blocking Sheffield from induction, I didn't run him through the Hall of Fame model. Verdict: As stated last year, Sheffield statistically is worthy of Cooperstown but I don't think he should be inducted due to his PED usage. Sheffield is in his last year on the ballot and thus far has been given the benefit that final year candidates historically receive. I don't think Sheffield should be the first clear-cut PED user in the Hall of Fame, and that his induction should only occur after players like Bonds, Clemens, or A-Rod. Andy Pettitte, SP (1995-2013) New York Yankees, Houston Astros Pettitte is the one player here that I don't think is an obvious statistical Hall of Famer, but I probably would consider him worthy if not for his PED usage. He didn't reach any of the clear pitching milestones, but did amass 256 wins and 2,448 strikeouts in his career. That win total is still good for 43rd all-time, with only 8 players ahead of him not in the Hall of Fame. One of those 8 is fellow PED user Roger Clemens, and another one is the still-active Justin Verlander. Four of those 8 played mainly before 1900, when wins were much easier to come by for pitchers. The two exceptions are both compiler cases in Jamie Moyer who played for 25 years until he was 49, and Tommy John who played for 26 years until he was 46. Pettitte pitched for only 18 seasons until he was 41. That strikeout total is good for 46th all-time, but with 20 pitchers ahead of him not in the Hall of Fame. We could throw out 8 pitchers that are either still active or haven't yet appeared on a ballot, as well as the PED user Clemens, but that still leaves 11 exceptions in guys like David Cone, Curt Schilling, and Mickey Lolich. Pettitte's career ERA of 3.86 could use some work; of the 60 pitchers in the live-ball era to throw at least 3,300 innings, Pettitte ranks just 53rd. Only Jack Morris has pitched as many innings with a worse ERA and made the Hall of Fame, and he threw over 500 more innings than Pettitte. Pettitte's lack of any Cy Youngs and only being a 3-time All-Star also hurt his case. Pettitte's career Player Value of 130.34 ranks just 71st among primarily starting pitchers from 1912-2021. With 2,296 primarily starters based on games played during this span, Pettitte ranks in the top 3.1%. His Pitching Value of 100.84 ranks 68th. Player Value agrees that Pettitte never deserved a Cy Young, but thinks he should have been to 4 All-Star games. As a PED-using pitcher, Pettitte hits both the checkmarks of a player that I can't run through the Hall of Fame model, so no results to share there. Verdict: Even ignoring his PED usage, I'm not sure that Pettitte is a clear-cut Hall of Famer. What helps him, as it helped Jack Morris, is his postseason history. Pettitte's name just feels like a Hall of Famer due to being one of the "Core Four" of the Yankees' dynasty in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Two of those four are already inducted (Jeter, Rivera), and I wouldn't be opposed if Posada were inducted as well. Pettitte's 5 World Series rings are tied for the 10th most in history by a pitcher. Of the 9 pitchers with more rings, 4 are in the Hall of Fame (Ruffing, Gomez, Ford, Pennock) and a decent number of the remaining guys were mainly riding the coattails of earlier Yankees dynasties led by the likes of Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, and Berra. Regardless, Pettitte's use of PEDs makes him a clear no for me until inducting PED players becomes the norm. Players With Great Careers That Don't Quite Make The Cut: David Wright, 3B (2004-2018) New York Mets David Wright had a great initial start to his career and was certainly on track for Cooperstown. Unfortunately, various injuries derailed his chances of induction and led to an early retirement. Such is the case with many players in history, and until we begin inducting the likes of all of those players (see Al Rosen, Grady Sizemore, Nomar Garciaparra, Eric Davis, etc.), I don't understand how Wright deserves to get in. I do have a softer spot for players whose careers ended abruptly due to injuries/death, such as Hall of Famers Roy Campanella, Ralph Kiner, and Kirby Puckett, and believe that others like Thurman Munson and Albert Belle (and maybe even Prince Fielder and J.R. Richard) deserve this treatment. However, this isn't the case with Wright. Wright technically played for 14 seasons but only played 10 seasons of at least 100 games, from 2005-2014. During that span Wright was a 7-time All-Star, hit 20+ homers 6 times, won 2 Silver Sluggers, won 2 Gold Gloves, and finished top 10 in MVP voting 4 times. Due to his shorter career, Wright's counting stats are pretty low at just 1,777 hits and 242 home runs. Wright's career WAR of 49.2 also ranks just 28th among primarily third basemen. Some people like to focus on peak, but that is something WAR inherently captures; a 6 year career with seasonal WARs of 10 is just as valuable as a 20 year career with seasonal WARs of 3. Even so, if we look at the WAR from Wright's best 7 seasons, it comes out as 39.5, which still ranks only 23rd among primarily third basemen. That just simply isn't high enough to argue that Wright's prime was good enough for induction. Wright's career Player Value of 239.53 ranks just 34th among primarily third basemen from 1912-2021, while his Batting Value of 185.08 ranks 25th. With 931 primarily third basemen based on games played during this span, Wright's Player Value is in the top 3.7%. Player Value thinks Wright should have been just a 5-time All-Star, and that he should have won only 1 Silver Slugger and no Gold Gloves. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Wright as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 5.77%. None of the 4 sub-models support his case either. The updated model also doesn't predict Wright as a Hall of Famer, but does give him a higher probability at 9.89%. Again, no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Wright's shortened career wasn't valuable enough to merit induction. His career did not end due to a singular event to give him any type of additional benefit. Unfortunately, injuries ruining careers is just how it goes sometimes, and to induct Wright would mean needing to induct many other players whose careers fell off due to injuries. Bartolo Colon, SP (1997-2018) Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Oakland Athletics, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Montreal Expos, Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox "Big Sexy" played for many teams during his 21 season career that lasted until he was 45 years old. Due to his long career, Colon was able to put up some fairly solid counting stats with 247 career wins and 2,535 career strikeouts. That strikeout total ranks 36th all-time, and is the 15th most by a player not in the Hall of Fame. Ahead of him are 6 players that haven't yet appeared on the ballot or that are still active, as well as PED user Roger Clemens. That win total ranks slightly lower at 51st all-time, and is the 12th most by a player not in the Hall of Fame, behind Clemens and 2 players yet to be on the ballot or that are still active (Sabathia, Verlander). So while Colon is certainly up there in history, he's not quite at necessary Hall of Fame levels. A good comparison is Jamie Moyer, who had 269 wins and 2,441 strikeouts and did not get inducted after receiving just 2.4% of the vote in 2018. While Moyer was just a 1 time All-Star, Bartolo made it to 4 All-Star games and also won the Cy Young award in 2005 after leading the AL in wins. Even so, those accolades aren't quite impressive enough to deserve induction. Bartolo's career ERA of 4.12 is also too high for Hall of Fame standards; the highest ERA among current Hall of Fame pitchers with at least 100 games pitched is Jack Morris' 3.90. Colon's career WAR of 46.2 ranks just 138th among starters in history, but Hall of Famer Dizzy Dean's career WAR is right there with him. Dean stood out more in his prime, as his 7-year peak WAR of 44.1 easily surpasses Colon's 35.5. Player Value is actually not very fond of Colon at all, perhaps due to its stricter standards than WAR. Colon's career Player Value is -17.50, which is the 709th worst that I have on file from 1912-2021, or the 1,526th best if you want to look at it that way. With 2,296 primarily starters based on games played during this span, Colon is only in the top 66.5%. His career Pitching Value is -17.03 and ranks as just the 1,405th best. His career Fielding Value is 32.36, however, which ranks better at 188th. Player Value thinks Colon shouldn't have a Cy Young and that he should have only been a 3-time All-Star. Since Colon is a pitcher (and even had some PED usage), he isn't applicable for the Hall of Fame model. Verdict: Colon did win a Cy Young and put up respectable career win and strikeout totals, but his poor career ERA reveals how he just wasn't an elite enough pitcher to make it into Cooperstown and that most of his counting stats are just the result of having pitched for a long time. This is also revealed in his negative Player Value, which in those later years thinks Colon was consistently in the bottom 25% of pitchers in the league. Additionally, Colon was suspended by MLB in 2012 for using a performance-enhancing testosterone, so his PED usage makes it even clearer to me that he doesn't deserve to get in. Matt Holliday, LF (2004-2018) St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics Holliday had an impressive career that included 7 All-Star games, 4 Silver Sluggers, a near .300 career batting average (.299), an .889 career OPS, 2,096 hits, and 316 home runs. He finished 2nd in NL MVP voting in 2007 after winning the batting title and leading the league in hits, doubles, RBI, and total bases. His career WAR of 44.5 ranks 36th among left fielders, while his career hits rank 33rd, home runs rank 25th, RBI rank 24th, and OPS ranks 18th (among players with at least 1,000 PA). Holliday was one of the better hitting left fielders in history on a rate basis, and while his career totals are still solid, they don't rank high enough among his positional peers to truly stand out. Holliday's career Player Value of 270.14 ranks 24th among primarily left fielders from 1912-2021. I have 1,101 primarily left fielders in terms of games played during this span, putting Holliday in the top 2.2%. In terms of time spent actually playing left field, Holliday's Player Value of 273.90 ranks 15th, behind 8 Hall of Famers and Barry Bonds. His Batting Value of 265.57 ranks 16th, behind 8 Hall of Famers, Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Pete Rose, and Shoeless Joe Jackson. Player Value agrees that Holliday should have won 4 Silver Sluggers, but thinks he should have just been a 3-time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Holliday as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 14.13%, with no support from any of the sub-models either. The updated model also doesn't predict him for induction, but does give him a higher probability of 17.87%, though still with no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Holliday had a good career, but just simply wasn't Hall of Fame caliber, and to induct him would mean needing to induct many other similar-level players. His Player Value shows that he is certainly one of the best left fielders in history that isn't currently in the Hall of Fame, but there are several others ahead of him like Bob Johnson, Ken Williams, Albert Belle, Brian Downing, Willie Wilson, and Brian Giles that would need to be inducted before he has a real argument. Jose Reyes, SS (2003-2018) New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies "The Major League Baseball Best 50" in 2008 ranked Jose Reyes as the 4th best player in the league. He was coming off of 3 straight seasons of leading the league in steals. Unfortunately, Reyes wasn't able to maintain a solid career into his mid-to-late 30s like is typically needed for induction, much like his long-time teammate David Wright. Reyes finished with a batting title, 1 Silver Slugger, 4 All-Star seasons, 2,138 hits, 131 triples (led league 4 times), and 517 steals (led league 3 times). His career WAR of 37.4 ranks just 54th among shortstops in history, while his hits rank 30th, triples rank 8th, and stolen bases rank 9th. While his speed totals are impressive, those typically aren't good enough in isolation to get a player into Cooperstown; fellow shortstops Bert Campaneris and Maury Wills had more steals and were denied induction. Reyes' career Player Value of 165.31 ranks just 77th among primarily shortstops from 1912-2021. I have 955 primarily shortstops based on games played during this span, putting Reyes in the top 8.1%. His Batting Value of 162.73 ranks 26th, and his Baserunning Value of 27.01 ranks 7th, but he generally lacked the defensive skills necessary for a Hall of Fame shortstop (also seen in his 0 Gold Gloves and career Rfield of -71). Player Value thinks he should have won 3 Silver Sluggers, but just been a 2-time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Reyes as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 19.68%, with no support from any of the sub-models. The updated model is still a "no" on Reyes, but gives him a much higher probability of 44.04%. Reyes also wins over the support of the updated SVM and NNet sub-models, with probabilities of 85.20% and 68.26%, respectively. However, the updated SVM sub-model is the least accurate of the bunch. Both of these sub-models like the runs scored per season variable, which Reyes ranks 1st with 101.84 compared to this 2024 ballot peers that I ran through the model. Verdict: Reyes was an exciting player in his prime but just couldn't maintain that level of success long enough to merit induction. He is one of the better base stealers in history, especially recently, but that skill alone isn't valuable enough to support his Hall of Fame case. Brandon Phillips, 2B (2002-2018) Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox BP had a solid career that consisted of winning 4 Gold Gloves, 1 Silver Slugger, and going to 3 All-Star games. He hit over 30 homers and stole over 30 bases in his 2007 season, a feat that has only been accomplished by 2 other second basemen in history (Ian Kinsler and Alfonso Soriano). Phillips had a fairly long career until he was 37, but didn't really start playing in the majors until he was 25. He finished with 2,029 hits, 368 doubles, 211 home runs, 951 RBI, and 209 steals. His career WAR of 28.4 ranks 69th among second basemen, while his hits rank 26th, doubles rank 28th, homers rank 15th, RBI rank 25th, and steals rank 49th. These are solid rankings in history, but not quite high enough for induction. Phillips' career Player Value of 133.43 ranks 87th among primarily second basemen from 1912-2021. There are 1,033 primarily second basemen based on games played during this span, putting Phillips in the top 8.4%. His Fielding Value of 147.59 ranks 52nd, and his Batting Value was fairly poor at -8.60. On the fielding front, I do think Phillips (like Torii Hunter) is probably underrated by metrics-based systems that don't consider the more intrinsic difficulty/excitement of making certain plays, such as his behind-the-back or between-the-legs plays. On the batting front, most of his negative value is probably from his later years, as he had 33.66 Batting Value with the Reds and 38.81 Batting Value during his prime from 2007 to 2012. Player Value thinks Phillips should have been just a 2 time All-Star and won only 1 Gold Glove, but agrees with his 1 Silver Slugger. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Phillips as a Hall of Famer, with a probability of just 3.88%, the lowest of any player on the 2024 ballot that I ran through the model. As such, none of the sub-models supported his induction either. The updated model was still a hard "no" on BP, with a marginally higher probability of 4.09%, and still no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Brandon Phillips was another exciting player that was Hall of Fame caliber in his prime from 2007 to 2012. Being a 4 or so WAR player each year for 20 seasons will almost surely get you inducted (unless you're unlucky like Lou Whitaker), but doing that for only 6 seasons doesn't make the cut. Phillips will join the likes of the Hall of Very Good and can look forward to his eventual induction into the Reds Hall of Fame. Jose Bautista, RF/3B (2004-2018) Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays Jose Bautista seemingly came out of nowhere in 2010, when he led the majors in homers with 54 and finished 4th in AL MVP voting. Though he had played for several teams since 2004, I had never heard of him until his breakout season and as a kid thought the sudden increase in home runs was the result of PED usage. Bautista would have been tested for such things and no news ever arose about potential PED usage, so "Joey Bats" is truly more of a Max Muncy situation where hard work, dedication, and practice seems to have paid off. Because it took time for Bautista to reach his peak form (he was 29 years old in that 2010 season), his career numbers are not as impressive. For someone that effectively debuted at 29, he did still manage to put up some solid career totals in certain areas due to his impressive seasons from 2010 to 2015. He finished with just 1,496 hits but 344 home runs and 975 RBI, as well as being a 6-time All-Star and winning 3 Silver Sluggers. Bautista's career WAR of 36.7 ranks just 66th among right fielders in history. His 7-year peak WAR of 38.2 ranks more respectably at 26th, while his homers rank 21st. From 2010-2015, Bautista led all of MLB in homers with 227 and ranked 7th in WAR with 35.3. Bautista's career Player Value of 168.62 ranks 53rd among primarily right fielders from 1912-2021, sitting between the likes of Paul O'Neil and Roger Maris. With 992 primarily right fielders based on games played during this span, Bautista is in the top 5.3%. His Batting Value of 137.78 ranks 42nd, sitting between players like Shin-Soo Choo and Dave Parker. Player Value thinks Bautista should have won one Hank Aaron award, 4 Silver Sluggers, and been a 4-time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Bautista as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 6.00%, with no support from any of the sub-models. The updated model thinks nearly the exact same way, with a probability of 6.29%. Again, no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Bautista was a Hall of Fame caliber player for the 6 season period from 2010 to 2015. That peak was not quite good enough to merit his induction on its own; he'd have needed his 2010/2011 self in particular each year for that to be the case. It took him too many seasons to reach that peak, and he wasn't able to maintain being a quality player for long enough, in order for him to accumulate any more counting stats or value needed for induction. Hall of Very Good. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (2004-2018) Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, New York Mets "A-Gon" had a solid 15-year MLB career that saw him amass 2,050 hits, 440 doubles, 317 homers, 1,202 RBI, 5 All-Star games, 4 Gold Gloves, and 3 Silver Sluggers. His career WAR of 43.5 ranks 43rd among first basemen, just below recent Hall of Fame inductee Gil Hodges. He is one of only 21 primarily first basemen in history that have amassed 2000+ hits and 300+ homers, a list that includes 10 Hall of Famers, 2 PED users, and 4 players either still on the ballot, yet to be on the ballot, or still active. But also in that list are the likes of Paul Konerko, Carlos Delgado, Andres Galarraga, and Lee May. Until it becomes the norm for guys like this to be inducted, Gonzalez doesn't have a solid argument. Among first basemen his hits rank 48th, homers rank 41st, RBI rank 39th, and doubles rank 31st. None of his rate stats stand out enough to push his case further like they would for Todd Helton or Joey Votto. He was solid defensively, as his Rfield of 73 ranks 11th among primarily first basemen in history. Gonzalez's career Player Value of 229.72 ranks 50th among primarily first basemen from 1912-2021, putting him between guys like Don Mattingly and Mark Grace. There are 894 primarily first basemen based on games played during this span, putting Gonzalez in the top 5.6%. His Fielding Value of 154.73 ranks 25th, between Will Clark and Anthony Rizzo (through 2021). His Batting Value of 77.03 ranks 81st, between guys like Ryan Howard and Cody Bellinger (through 2021). Player Value does not think that Gonzalez deserved any Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, or All-Star appearances in his career. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Gonzalez as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 7.51%, with none of the sub-models predicting him for induction either. The updated model also doesn't predict Gonzalez for induction, with a slightly lower probability of 6.34% and still no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Gonzalez was a solid defensive first baseman that could adequately hit for his position. Despite appearing in 15 seasons, he only really had 10 full seasons and thus wasn't able to accrue the offensive numbers that the Hall of Fame expects from most first basemen. He was consistently solid during those 10 years, but really needed to play for about 15 or 20 true seasons at that level to be inducted, or needed more of his 10 seasons to be like his absolute peak self from 2009 to 2011. Hall of Very Good. James Shields: James Shields, SP (2006-2018) Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres With all due respect, I do think James Shields is the lone man out on this year's ballot, and I frankly would be disappointed if even a single voter wasted one of their 10 precious votes on him rather than any of the other more deserving candidates above. Per the Ballot Tracker (as of this writing) that hasn't been the case yet for any of the voters, though a few other players have also yet to receive a vote. Shields certainly isn't the worst player to ever be on a Hall of Fame ballot; he compares well to the likes of Bronson Arroyo, Jered Weaver, and John Lackey on last year's ballot. Unfortunately, this year's ballot is pretty stacked and I don't see any way to possibly justify voting for him. Shields was just a 1 time All-Star, won 145 games, struck out 2,234 batters in his career, and had a 4.01 career ERA. None of those are really near Hall of Fame starting pitcher standards. His career WAR of 30.7 ranks as the 283rd best by a starter in history. That 1 All-Star game is tied for the 220th most, his wins rank 264th, and his ERA ranks 425th. His strikeouts do rank slightly better at 61st, with 32 Hall of Famers ahead of him, as well as about 4 more future Hall of Famers and an otherwise Hall of Famer in PED user Clemens. But there's still a long list of others ahead of him that aren't (and shouldn't be) in Cooperstown. Shields had a career Player Value of -23.68, which you can probably guess doesn't rank too well. His Pitching Value was -48.14, while his Fielding Value was 31.09. Most of his negative value comes from his last 3 seasons with the White Sox from 2016-2018, when he put up a Player Value of -58.5 and a Pitching Value of -59.5. Shields is on the Player Value single season team for the Rays for his 2011 season, and posted a Player Value of 46.49 and a Pitching Value of 26.91 while in Tampa Bay, despite his poor 2010 season. Player Value does think that Shields actually should have been a 3-time All-Star. Since Shields was a pitcher, the Hall of Fame model wasn't ran on him. Verdict: A decent 13 year career as a Major League starting pitcher, and he made over $114 million while doing so. Just not quite Hall of Fame quality. Needed to be more consistently like his 2011 self. Conclusion To summarize, here is who I would vote for on my 10-person Hall of Fame ballot:
And here are the player's I'd like to stay on the ballot to consider further next year:
Below are the probabilities from the initial and updated Hall of Fame models, as well as each of the sub-models:
You can also check out the initial dataset of players that I used for the model, as well as the updated dataset:
And for complete transparency, here is the R code that I use to run the Hall of Fame model:
The below files provides a summary of how each players ranks in terms of Player Value:
Thank you all for reading and best of luck to all of the candidates involved. Here's to hoping we get a few players inducted this go around to leave more space open for new players on the ballot next year.
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The National Baseball Hall of Fame announced the members of the 2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Ballot on October 19th. This ballot consists of 8 managers, umpires, and executives/pioneers whose primary baseball contributions came after 1980. Specifically, there are 4 managers, 2 umpires, and 2 executives. The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will meet on December 3rd to discuss and vote on the ballot. Each of the 16 committee members may vote for up to 3 people, and a person must receive at least 75% of the votes (12 votes) to be inducted. The specific members of the committee were announced on November 27th and include several former Hall of Fame players in Jeff Bagwell, Tom Glavine, Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, and Ted Simmons. Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre and Hall of Fame executive and former MLB commissioner Bud Selig will also be on the committee. Rounding out the 16 voters are 6 executives and 3 media members and historians, including the founder of Baseball Reference, Sean Forman. In this post I will discuss each of the candidates and share my hypothetical ballot. This will be slightly different from my typical player Hall of Fame analysis where I lean more heavily on my tools of Player Value and my Hall of Fame predictive model. However, one important thing to note is that these candidates are to be considered for their entire body of baseball work, rather than their specific worth for the role they will be inducted for. For example, if Joe Torre weren't already a Hall of Famer and were on the ballot, we would consider the joint value from both his playing and managerial careers. To this end, candidates that also were players will have their impact from their playing careers analyzed below as well. Rather than regurgitating how some of my tools work in this post, you can read about my Player Value metric here and my Hall of Fame predictive model here. I will note that there are 2 ways to run players through the Hall of Fame model. One is using the initial dataset, meaning the model is not aware of any inductees from 2022 or 2023. The other way is to use an updated dataset, informing the model of any inductees from the last 2 years. Generally this has the advantage of having more complete and recent data, but has declined in accuracy from the initial model. This year, however, the updated dataset actually resulted in an overall more accurate model. Without getting into the nitty gritty of predictive modeling, AUC is a measure of model accuracy and the closer it is to 1, the better. The initial dataset resulted in the model having an AUC of .9736, while the updated dataset gave the model an AUC of .9891, which is even better than the AUC of .9817 that the model had back in 2021 when it was first created. A caveat here is that ballot member Bill White was already in the dataset as an example of a non-Hall of Fame player, as he fell off the BBWAA ballot in 1977 after 3 years on the ballot and receiving just 1% of the vote. Because of this, I had to remove Bill White from the dataset in order for the model to predict his Hall of Fame case. If not, it is akin to telling someone that 2+2=4 and then asking them what 2+2 is; they will (or at least should) always tell you that it is 4. Ok, now on to discussing the ballot members. Managers Lou Piniella Manager Stats on Baseball Reference Player Stats on Baseball Reference Lou Piniella's most significant accomplishment was winning the 1990 World Series as the manager of the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds went 91-71 in the regular season and went wire-to-wire, meaning they led the NL West for every game of the season. After beating the Pittsburgh Pirates led by Jim Leyland (who is also on this ballot) in 6 games in the NLCS, the Reds swept the Oakland Athletics in 4 games. The series was considered a major upset, as the A's had won 103 games and were the previous World Series champions. That A's team was managed by future Hall of Famer Tony La Russa and included future Hall of Famer players Rickey Henderson, Dennis Eckersley, and Harold Baines, as well as the steroid slugging likes of the "Bash Brothers", Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco. Piniella's other big accomplishment was being the manager of the 2001 Seattle Mariners that went 116-46, tying the record for most wins in a season in Major League history. That team naturally won the AL West and advanced to the ALCS, but lost in 5 games to the New York Yankees' dynasty of the period. Piniella's career record was 1835-1713 for a winning percentage of .517. Of the 22 Hall of Famer managers, Piniella would rank 13th in wins and 19th in winning percentage. While he only won the one World Series and pennant, he went to 4 total league championship series, won the division 6 times, and advanced to the postseason 7 times in his 23 season managing career. His teams exceeded 100 games once, 90 games eight times, and had a winning record in 14 of his 23 seasons. He would rank 14th in number of winning seasons and 12th in number of seasons with 90+ wins. Piniella has also won the Manager of the Year award 3 times, an accolade that has existed since 1983. Hall of Fame manager contemporaries Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa each won that award 4 times. Piniella's playing career wasn't really near Hall of Fame quality, but I do think it is important to distinguish from managers that did not play in the majors at all (such as Jim Leyland) or from managers that only played for a very short period of time (such as Sparky Anderson). Piniella enjoyed an 18-year career primarily as a leftfielder with the Yankees and Royals. He was the 1969 AL Rookie of the Year with Kansas City and was an All-Star with the Royals in 1972, the same season that he led the American League with 33 doubles. He won 2 World Series as a member of the Yankees in 1977 and 1978. His 12.4 career WAR again isn't anything special, ranking 190th among fellow leftfielders. His Player Value comes out as -20, ranking 929th out of the 1,101 players I have as primarily leftfielders from 1912-2021. Part of that lower ranking is due to players that don't play very long not being able to produce much negative value. Player Value doesn't think Piniella should have been an All-Star, but does think he should have won a Gold Glove. The updated Hall of Fame predictive model did not predict Piniella as a Hall of Fame player, giving him a probability of just 6.5%, where at least 50% is needed to be predicted as a Hall of Fame player. For reference, last year the model gave Jhonny Peralta (who fell off the BBWAA ballot) a probability of 5.9%. Piniella appeared on the BBWAA ballot in 1990 as a player and received just 0.5% of the vote, falling off the ballot. Of the committee members, it's possible Torre could vote for Piniella out of respect for his peer. They faced each other in back-to-back ALCS matchups in 2000 and 2001. As a member of the Indians, Thome squared off against Piniella in the 1995 ALCS and the 2001 ALDS. Verdict: I think Piniella deserves to be inducted. He had a long managerial career with success at multiple spots. He wasn't the best manager of his time and won't be one of the better managers in the Hall, but worst managers have been inducted in my opinion, such as Bucky Harris and Wilbert Robinson. He ranks 17th in wins all-time, got a World Series title that has been precious to Reds fans, had an iconic season in Seattle, is up there in terms of Manager of the Year awards, and is also iconic himself due to his ejection meltdowns. His playing career isn't a substantial factor, but he did have a fairly long career with decent success so it at least gives him a bit of a favorable bump. Davey Johnson Manager Stats on Baseball Reference Player Stats on Baseball Reference Davey Johnson is a more unique case in that he had both a solid playing and managing career. His biggest managerial accomplishment was managing the 1986 New York Mets to a World Series victory over the Boston Red Sox in 7 games. This is the infamous "Buckner Play", so perhaps you can argue that if Bill had made the play then Johnson would have 0 championships to bout. The Mets went 108-54 that season, winning the NL East by more than 20 games. While 1986 was Johnson's only World Series and pennant, I believe it is important to mention the success of his 1994 Cincinnati Reds before the season-ending strike took place. Many people recall the 1994 Montreal Expos, who were 74-40 and led the NL East, and believe that they would have won the World Series had the season continued. However, the Reds led the NL Central and were 66-48. It is not extreme to think that Cincinnati could have won the World Series that season either; they would make it to the NLCS the next season in 1995. Johnson's career record was 1372-1071 with 2 ties for a .562 winning percentage. His win totals aren't too impressive, ranking 19th among the 22 Hall of Fame managers, but his winning percentage ranks a much more favorable 6th. He made it to a league championship series 5 times, won the division 6 times, and made the postseason 6 times in his 17 season managerial career. His teams exceeded 100 wins twice, 90 wins seven times, and had a winning record in 13 out of 17 seasons. He would rank 10th among Hall of Fame managers in percentage of seasons with winning records. He won the Manager of the Year award 2 times. As a player, Johnson primarily played second base with the Orioles and Braves. He was a 4-time All-Star and won the Gold Glove award 3 times. He won 2 World Series as a member of the Orioles in 1966 and 1970. His 27.4 WAR ranks 73th among fellow second basemen and he is one of just 41 second basemen in history to appear in at least 4 All-Star games. Davey famously hit 43 home runs in 1973, despite never hitting more than 20 any other season of his career. While the driver of that may be mysterious, it is the 2nd most home runs in a season by a primarily second baseman in history. Johnson's Player Value of 221.43 ranks 43rd out of the 1,033 players that I have on file as playing the majority of their games at second base from 1912-2021. While that mark probably isn't quite at the level of the Hall of Fame, it isn't that far off. Player Value agrees that Johnson should have been a 4 time All-Star, but think he should have only won 1 Gold Glove. The Hall of Fame model is not as keen on Johnson as Player Value is. It doesn't predict him as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 7.3% As for potential committee member biases, Chipper Jones and Tom Glavine were both on the Braves team that beat Johnson's Reds in the 1995 NLCS, so maybe there is some respect there. Torre and Johnson squared off in the AL East in 1996 and 1997, splitting who won the division each year. Verdict: I think Johnson deserves to be inducted. He had a solid managerial career and a good playing career that I think in combination more than merit his induction. Johnson probably didn't get the slack he deserved as a manager given his success; he went 98-64 with the Orioles in 1997, won the AL East, took them to the ALCS, and was named the Manager of the Year, and was basically forced to resign after disagreements with the team's owner. He was also let go by the Reds after the shortened 1995 season when he went 85-59, won the NL Central, and took them to the NLCS. This dismissal was again largely due to owner disagreements rather than performance issues, as Reds owner Marge Schott did not like that Johnson was living with his fiancee prior to marriage. I think Johnson could have been an even better manager if some teams had given him a more extensive chance. Regardless, Johnson still ranks 10th all-time in winning percentage among managers with at least 1,000 wins, with every manager ahead of him inducted in Cooperstown. Pair that winning success with a World Seres and a great playing career and I think Johnson is worthy of induction. Jim Leyland Manager Stats on Baseball Reference It is a little difficult to pinpoint a singular best accolade for Jim Leyland. His one World Series victory came in 1997 as the manager of the Florida Marlins, who did not begin playing in Major League Baseball until 1993. That team comprised of players like Kevin Brown, Robb Nen, Moises Alou, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Conine, and Charles Johnson. They beat the Indians dynasty of the period in 7 games after going 92-70 and finishing 2nd in the NL East. However, in Leyland's 2nd season with the Marlins in 1998 they would go a dismal 54-108 after getting rid of the vast majority of their stars - none of the aforementioned players were on the 1998 team. Leyland would resign from his Marlins duties due to these ownership decisions. So while Leyland got his World Series with the Marlins, he was only there for 2 seasons and still had a losing record overall. Leyland would reach 2 more World Series with the Detroit Tigers, falling short of a championship in 2006 and 2012. The 2006 squad went 95-67 and finished 2nd in the AL Central but lost in 5 games to the Cardinals. On that team was a young Justin Verlander and future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez, as well as the likes of Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Curtis Granderson to name a few. Leyland would also win his 3rd Manager of the Year award in 2006. The 2012 team went 88-74 and won the AL Central, but got swept by the Giants. That team also had Verlander and fellow pitching ace and likely future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, as well as the powerful likes of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Most of Leyland's career however came as the skipper of the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1986-1996, in which he never led them to a World Series appearance despite playing in the NLCS for 3 consecutive seasons from 1990 to 1992. Those teams were led by Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla, Jay Bell, Doug Drabek, and Andy Van Slyke. Leyland's 1,769 career wins would rank 13th among current Hall of Fame managers, but his .506 winning percentage would rate as the 4th worst. While his 1 World Series victory isn't excessively impressive, his 8 appearances in a league championship series has only been topped by Hall of Famers Tony La Russa, Bobby Cox, and Joe Torre (granted that the LCS did not exist prior to 1969). His 3 Manager of the Year awards is also impressive and is only topped by La Russa and Cox. Jim Leyland never appeared in a Major League Baseball game as a player and thus I do not have any Player Value or Hall of Fame model details to share. He was signed as a catcher by the Tigers out of high school but only ever appeared in the minor leagues. Regarding voter biases, Ted Simmons served as the general manager of the Pirates for parts of the 1992 and 1993 seasons, but ultimately resigned after suffering a heart attack. Leyland managed against Joe Torre when he was the Cardinals skipper in the 1990s and both teams were in the NL East. He also managed against the Braves in the 1991 and 1992 NLCS, when Tom Glavine was with Atlanta. His NL East matchups against the Braves would have also touched Chipper Jones in 1995 and 1996. He faced off against Jim Thome in the AL Central for portions of 2006-2011 when Thome was with the White Sox, Twins, and Indians. Verdict: Relative to the other managerial candidates, Leyland's case is at least slightly hurt due to never being a player. Leyland had a lengthy career that included winning a good number of games and making it as a semifinalist several times. However, his winning percentage and proportion of winning seasons are not as impressive compared to other Hall of Fame skippers and his ultimate lack of postseason success also raises a slight flag. Part of his poor seasons are due to ownership getting rid of players after periods of success (fire sales), such as in 1998 with the Marlins and the Pirates after 1992. Overall I would not be opposed to Leyland being inducted but think that there are 3 other people on the ballot that are more deserving. Cito Gaston Manager Stats on Baseball Reference Player Stats on Baseball Reference Cito Gaston is most well-known for managing the Toronto Blue Jays to consecutive World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. That first team included future Hall of Fame players Roberto Alomar, Dave Winfield, and Jack Morris, as well as notable players in John Olerud, Dave Stieb, Devon White, Joe Carter, Tom Henke, Mark Eichhorn, David Cone, and even Jeff Kent. The following season's squad added future Hall of Famers Paul Molitor and Rickey Henderson, as well as the likes of Dave Stewart, Tony Fernandez, and a young Carlos Delgado. That is all to say that those Blue Jays teams were absolutely stacked and there is probably a good number of managers that could have also led them to the same level of success. Outside of those 2 seasons, Gaston's Hall of Fame candidacy is lacking. He only made the playoffs in 2 more of his 12 total managerial seasons. He took over for Jimy Williams during the 1989 season and led the Blue Jays to an ALCS defeat at the hands of the mighty Oakland Athletics. He managed Toronto at the start and end of the 1991 season, where they lost in the ALCS to the eventual World Series champion Minnesota Twins. Gene Tenace served as the team's interim manager while Gaston was out with a herniated disc. Besides the stretch from 1989 to 1993, Gaston's teams were filled with mediocrity. His only other winning season was his last year during his 2nd stint with the Blue Jays, winning 85 games in 2010. Gaston's 894 wins would rank dead last compared to the other Hall of Fame managers. His .516 winning percentage would rank 19th compared to the 22 current Hall of Fame managers. His 2 seasons with 90+ wins and his 7 winning seasons would also rank last. Among contemporary Hall of Fame managers, only Dick Williams and Earl Weaver managed when the Manager of the Year award existed and failed to win one. The award began in 1983 and Weaver's last managerial season was 1986 and Williams' last was 1988; both of them had the bulk of their career's prior to the start of the award. Gaston's 2 World Series would tie him for 10th most among Hall of Fame managers, but besides that he really doesn't have much else going for him. As a player, Gaston was an All-Star in 1970, a season in which he batted .318 and hit 29 home runs. Unfortunately, that level of success did not sustain for most of Gaston's career. He failed to surpass 1,000 hits or 100 home runs and only ended up playing for 11 seasons. His WAR was only -0.8, meaning that Gaston was essentially a replacement-level player for his career. He's not even in the top 500 of primarily center fielders in history. Gaston's Player Value of -98.34 ranks as the 5th worst among the 920 primarily center fielders that I have on file from 1912-2021. Player Value doesn't think he should have been an All-Star, either. The Hall of Fame also does not predict Gaston as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 6.2%. As per committee members, Gaston played briefly with Torre on the Braves in 1967. He did not manage or have any notable matchups with any of the former Hall of Fame players on the committee. He had a brief overlap in the AL East from 1996-1997 as his first stint with the Blue Jays was ending and Torre's Yankees dynasty was beginning. If the committee instead consisted of the likes of Alomar, Henderson, Molitor, Winfield, and Morris, then Gaston may have a chance... Verdict: I do not think that Gaston deserves to be inducted. He did win the 2 World Series titles, but those rosters were pretty stacked and he failed to show much success in his managerial career otherwise. While his playing career does somewhat give him a boost, it really doesn't move the meter much at all. If manager Gaston from 1992 and 1993 or player Gaston from 1970 was more routinely the case, then he might have found himself in Cooperstown more easily. Executives Bill White Wikipedia Page Player Stats on Baseball Reference Bill White is another unique case in that he also had a near Hall of Fame playing career in addition to his role as the President of the National League from 1989 to 1994. I admit that it is difficult for me to evaluate White's worthiness on the executive front. Per Wikipedia, he was the first black executive to reach such a position, which seems to be an important feat. However, he supposedly was more of a figurehead in the position rather than someone with actual power. White is in fact the penultimate NL president, as the merger of the leagues in 1999 made the position obsolete. The Hall of Fame announcement gives White some credit for the addition of the Rockies and Marlins into the National League, as well as for the merger with the American League. I'm not sure how much of that credit he ultimately deserves, as league expansion may have been a larger scale decision made by the commissioner or all of the owners. As per the merger, that ultimately took place 5 years after White left the role. As a player, White was primarily a first baseman for the St. Louis Cardinals. He appeared in 8 All-Star games, but really only 5 distinct All-Star seasons given that two All-Star games were played each season from 1959 to 1961. Most notably, he won 7 Gold Gloves at first base in his career, which is tied with Vic Power for the 4th most in history. At the time White won his 7th Gold Glove, he was actually tied with Power for the most by a first baseman in history; George Scott, Don Mattingly, and Keith Hernandez would all pass him later. White's WAR of 38.6 ranks 50th among primarily first basemen in history. Looking specifically at the defensive side of WAR, White's Rfield of 57 ranks 21st all-time among fellow first basemen. Instead looking at Player Value, White ranks 34th all-time with a Player Value of 278.49. That's among the 894 players who played most of their games at first base that I have data for from 1912-2021. That puts White in the top 3.8%, perhaps not Hall of Fame level as a player but certainly close. On the defensive side, his Fielding Value of 161.22 ranks 23rd all-time among fellow first basemen. Interestingly, Player Value thinks White should have only been a 4 time All-Star, and that he never should have won a Gold Glove. It does think he should have won a Silver Slugger in 1962 had the award existed. White also won a World Series in 1964 with the Cardinals, the same season that he finished 3rd in NL MVP voting. Recall that White was actually close enough of a Hall of Famer that I already had him in my model's dataset as an example of a non-Hall of Famer. This is because when developing the lists I looked at things like leaders in various statistical categories and accolades at each position, such as Gold Gloves. Another source I relied on was Baseball Egg's all-time rankings at each position. White ranks 42nd according to them. The Hall of Fame model did not predict White as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 10.8%, the most of the 3 former players on the ballot. For some context, last year the model gave Torii Hunter a probability of 10.5%, who received 6.9% of the vote on the 2023 BBWAA ballot. One likely committee member bias could be Bud Selig, who served as the acting MLB Commissioner from 1992 to 1998, overlapping with White's tenure as President of the National League from 1989 to 1994. White also briefly played with Torre and Simmons for the Cardinals during his last season in 1969. Verdict: I think White deserves to be inducted. He had a near Hall of Fame playing career and I think adding his role as President of the NL on top of that pushes him in. I do think other candidates on this ballot have good cases for my 3rd spot here, but ultimately think White is the most deserving of the remaining candidates. Defensive metrics may not be as keen on him as his 7 Gold Gloves suggest, but ultimately I think players should be rewarded for what those awards represent. In this case, Bill White was the best defensive first basemen in the National League for nearly a decade. Hank Peters Wikipedia Page Hank Peters was most notably the general manager of the Baltimore Orioles from 1976 to 1987, during which they won the World Series in 1983 and also won the AL pennant in 1979. Peters obviously played a part in the Orioles success of the team, but that success is also attributable to Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver and Hall of Fame players Jim Palmer, Eddie Murray, and Cal Ripken Jr. Peters was responsible for obtaining players such as Rick Dempsey, Tippy Martinez, and Scott McGregor that were part of those pennant-winning teams. The Orioles were hardly in shambles prior to Peters' arrival though, having reached the ALCS in 1973 and 1974 and winning 90 games in 1975. He was fired after the decline of the Orioles from 1984 to 1987. The Hall of Fame's announcement article gives Peters some additional credit that he may or may not be entirely worthy of, in my opinion. It suggests that Peters played a large role in the creation of the Oakland Athletics' dynasty in the 1970s, as well as the success of the Cleveland Indians in the 1990s. Peters led the Indians from October 1987 to 1991 and was responsible for the signings of Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. Thome was selected in the 13th round of the 1989 draft and thus I believe his success was largely more so a case of his own perseverance and determination rather than Peters discovering some diamond-in-the-rough talent. The Indians never had a winning season under Peters' leadership; their true success would come from 1995 to 2001. Albert Belle was drafted in June of 1987 prior to Peters' arrival. Kenny Lofton and Omar Vizquel were both traded to the Indians after Peters' departure. So while Peters may have played a part in developing the Indians period of success, I don't think he was the primary creator and shouldn't be recognized as that being a major accomplishment. As for the Athletics, Peters was in charge of the team's scouting and minor league system in the early 1960s while it was located in Kansas City. He served as general manager for the 1965 season, in which they finished last. Peters obviously had some role in obtaining future stars like Catfish Hunter, Rollie Fingers, Sal Bando, and Gene Tenace, but again most of the teams actual success was experienced after the fact. Additionally, other stars like Reggie Jackson and Vida Blue were drafted after Peters was with the team. As far as committee member bias goes, perhaps Jim Thome has a special place in his heart for the man that played a part in drafting him. Torre's Yankees squads went up against the Indians several times in the playoffs, so maybe he has some respect for the team that Peters helped put together. Verdict: I wouldn't be outraged if Peters were inducted but wouldn't put him on my 3 person ballot. He did have success leading the Orioles, but some of those pieces like Jim Palmer were already in place to keep things going. The Athletics and Indians both experienced success after his association with those teams, and while he does deserve some credit for their future success, there were other important players that were obtained for those winning teams that he played no part in. I don't quite think his connection to the Athletics' and Indians' success is clear-cut enough for induction, nor do I think his period with the Orioles was successful enough to merit induction. I also would rather use the limited number of votes available on worthy managers, rather than executives. Umpires Joe West Wikipedia Page Joe West was an umpire in Major League Baseball from 1976 to 2021. His 43 seasons of umpiring is the most by anyone in history. His 5,460 games umpired is likewise also the most by anyone in history. He umpired 3 All-Star games, 4 Wild Card games, 8 Division Series, 10 League Championship Series, and 6 World Series, as well as the 2009 World Baseball Classic. It is clear that West is special in being the longest serving umpire. He is one of the few umpires I have heard of because of that reason. However, I don't think West has universally been regarded as being a great umpire. Measuring such things is difficult, but recent revelations in pitch tracking data have allowed some people to create tools to do so, such as Umpire Scorecards. You may have seen these on Twitter/X, where they post an image after each game showing how each umpire fared in terms of calling strikes correctly, calling balls correctly, any pivotal missed calls, and the run favorability impact of calls towards each team. Here's the post from the last game of his career, where Joe did a decent job. Here's a post from one of Joe's not-so-good games that I found. Per Umpire Scorecards, which only has umpire grading data for Joe West from 2015-2021, he ranks in just the 11th percentile of Accuracy (90.9% accurate), in just the 5th percentile of Accuracy Above Expected, (1.32% less accurate than expected) and in just the 18th percentile of Consistency (92.8% consistent). While those are not great metrics, I will cut Joe some slack since these were the last 7 seasons of his career when he was ages 63 to 69, probably not the peak period for anyone's eyesight. Verdict: Probably deserving of induction but not someone I would put on my 3 person ballot. I think part of this is how the system is currently set up - managers, umpires, and executives/pioneers are pitted against each other for induction. For people whose main contributions are before 1980, even players are included in the fold! I personally will always prefer to induct worthy players, managers, and even executives before umpires. I think the Hall of Fame should be home to the people that directly impact the game, and that umpires would be better to have a special exhibit such as the Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasters. However, the fact of the matter is that umpires are inducted and West probably deserves it for being the longest tenured umpire. The umpire that previously held this record, Bill Klem, is one of the 10 umpires in Cooperstown. Given the tools we have today like Umpire Scorecards, I wouldn't be opposed to inducting umpires that have statistical evidence at being great at their job. Pat Hoberg, for example, ranks in the 85th percentile of Accuracy (94.1% accurate), the 97th percentile of Accuracy Above Expected (1.53% more accurate than expected), and the 92nd percentile of Consistency (93.9% consistent). He is also famous for having called a perfect game in Game 2 of the 2022 World Series. However, by the time we have enough years of data like this to use for an umpire's entire career, I fear that we may already begin switching to robot umpires and its usage will become moot. Ed Montague Wikipedia Page I had not previously heard of Ed Montague. He was a National League umpire in 1974 and from 1976-1999, and then for both the NL and the AL from 2000-2009. He was the most senior umpire at the time of his retirement and ranked 8th all-time in games umpired with 4,369 (This other Wikipedia source has him listed 13th all-time). Per the Hall of Fame's ballot announcement, he called 4 All-Star games, 4 Wild Card games, 7 Division Series, 7 League Championship Series, and 6 World Series. He is one of only 3 umpires to be the crew chief for a World Series at least 4 times. Since he retired in 2009, we don't have any Umpire Scorecards data to assess him with. Verdict: I'm not sure Montague deserves induction, and I wouldn't put him on my 3 person ballot. He does appear to be towards the top of non-Hall of Fame umpires, but he doesn't stand out from others like Gerry Davis to me to have his induction make sense or be necessary. Again, I'd rather put in a manager than an umpire any day of the week. Conclusion And that's the analysis of our ballot members! As a quick recap, from the 8 person ballot I would vote for:
Stay tuned for my next blog post where I plan to share my annual analysis of the coming year's BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. The below file has detailed comparisons of the 20 current Hall of Fame managers and the 4 managers on this year's ballot:
The below files show the Hall of Fame model's predictions for the 4 former players on this year's ballot, using both the initial dataset and an updated dataset:
The below file has the detailed code for loading in the data for the Hall of Fame model and running it, as well as some results in the comments:
The below files show the input data for the 4 former players that the Hall of Fame model predicted, as well as the initial and updated datasets that were used to train the model:
Voting closed on 12/31/2022 for the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, so we are in the period of eagerly awaiting the announcement of the results on 1/24/2023. In this post I will break down the players on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot in 3 different ways, as applicable:
For those of you that are new and unfamiliar with my Hall of Fame predictive model and my Player Value metric, I will give a brief overview of them here. If you're already aware of these or don't care about the details as much, feel free to skip ahead to the specific sections for each player instead. Note that the the predictive model can be applied in two ways:
From a predictive analytics standpoint, the initial model is more accurate. The dataset's variables were trimmed down based on their correlation with other variables and their Hall of Fame predictability, based on the data in the initial dataset. The range of values used to tune the model's parameters to their optimal values was also based upon the initial model and dataset. The initial model had an AUC of .9817. AUC stands for Area Under the Curve and is essentially just a measure of accuracy for classification models. That's what we have here, because we are classifying players as either Hall of Famers or not Hall of Famers. A 'perfect' model would have an AUC of 1, while a random guess, coin flip model would have an AUC of 0.5. The fact that the initial model's AUC is so close to 1 is a testament to its quality. From a historical and baseball standpoint, you might think of the updated model as more accurate. It is the model whose training dataset is up to date, after all. It is aware of the Hall of Fame results from last year and December, and the induction of those players should logically have an impact in its decisions of which players to approve this year. However, this updated model has a lower AUC of .9425. When I used the model to predict the players on the 2023 Era Committee ballot, updating it with the 2022 results made it worse, giving it an AUC of .9286. This means that telling the model that Oliva, Minoso, Hodges, and technically Ortiz were Hall of Famers made it worse. However, as we can see here via the since improvement in AUC, telling the model that McGriff was a Hall of Famer made it better. The model uses 5 classes of predictors:
Lastly, remember that the final model is an ensemble of 4 different submodels. So while the overall model may not predict a player as a Hall of Famer, specific submodels might. This ensemble technique results in a final model that is more accurate than any of the individual submodels. You can read about my initial creation of my Player Value metric here, as well as an important addendum here. Note however that I've been doing further research into my Player Value weights using play by play data from Retrosheet, so the ones I used in this post are slightly updated, as detailed below: Run value weights for the relevant pitching events: non-Home Run Hit: -.43 runs Home Run: -1.29 runs Unintentional Walk: -.21 runs Intentional Walk: -.05 runs Hit By Pitch: -.23 runs Sacrifice Bunt: .12 runs Sacrifice Fly: .05 runs Strikeout: .33 runs Groundball Double Play: .70 runs Other Out: .30 runs Wild Pitch: -.27 runs Balk: -.26 runs Run value weights for the relevant defensive events: Putout by a non catcher or first baseman: .30 runs Unassisted Putout by a first baseman: .30 runs Non-strikeout Putout by a catcher: .30 runs Assisted Putout by a first baseman: .2*.30 = .06 runs Strikeout Putout by a catcher: .33*.30 = .099 runs Assist: .8*.30 = .24 runs Error: -.38 runs Double Play: .11 runs Passed Ball: -.26 runs Stolen Base allowed by catcher: -.18 runs Caught Stealing by catcher: .37 runs Run value weights for the relevant offensive events: Single: .35 runs Double: .64 runs Triple: .92 runs Home Run: 1.29 runs Unintentional Walk: .21 runs Intentional Walk: .05 runs Hit By Pitch: .23 runs Sacrifice Bunt: -.12 runs Sacrifice Fly: -.05 runs Strikeout: -.33 runs Groundball Double Play: -.70 runs Other Out: -.30 runs These weights are not pulled out of thin air, but rather mathematically determined based on the historical effect that each event has on a player's probability of scoring. For hitting, this is not that dissimilar from wOBA, although I emphasis scoring probability rather than run expectancy, I utilize more baseball events in the calculation, and I use a constant weight over time based on all available data rather than a weight that changes each year based on each year's data. Overall, Player Value is basically my version of WAR that I think is simpler and more logical in its application over time. The main differences are that I don't convert runs to wins, I use the 25th percentile as the baseline rather than a theoretical replacement level, and I compare players to their position in all aspects of the game, rather than comparing them by position defensively but to the league overall offensively. Because of this, there is no need for a positional adjustment. Lastly, I compute players fielding, baserunning, and pitching components much more similar to how I compute their batting components. The other components of WAR vary greatly in how they are calculated compared to the batting component of WAR. Baseball Reference currently has listed that there have been 22,860 players in MLB history. There are currently 269 former players in the Hall of Fame. Both of these totals include players that played in the Negro Leagues. This means that just the top 1.18% of players get inducted into the Hall. This will serve as our baseline for whether a player should be a Hall of Famer according to Player Value. For position players, I will be comparing players during the span when the AL had a DH and the NL did not, from 1973-2021. There were 4,737 such position players during this span, so position players must rank in the top 57 to be worthy of the Hall. For pitchers, I'll go ahead and use that same span. From 1973-2021, there were 5,248 pitchers, so pitchers must rank in the top 62 to be worthy of the Hall. Carlos Beltran, CF (1998-2017) I've stated this before, but I think reaching 3,000 hits or 500 home runs automatically qualify a position player for Hall of Fame induction, unless they obviously used steroids. Beltran did not achieve either of these, but he came close for both, amassing 2,725 hits and 434 homers in his career. Among primarily centerfielders, that's good for the 9th most hits all-time, behind 5 Hall of Famers, and the 5th most homers all-time, behind 4 Hall of Famers. Using Stathead, we can see that across all positions, just 22 players in MLB history have reached at least 2,700 hits and 400 home runs. Of those 22, just 7 are currently not in the Hall of Fame. Two of those 7 used steroids and have been voted off the ballot (Bonds and Palmeiro), 1 used steroids and is still on the ballot (A-Rod), 3 have yet to appear on the ballot and are virtual Hall of Fame locks (Pujols, Cabrera, Beltre), and the last is Beltran. Given that Beltran didn't use steroids, I don't think I need to say much more, at least on the basis of his numbers alone. Nonetheless, I'll discuss his numbers a little more. Beltran's career WAR of 70.1 is the 8th most all-time among primarily centerfielders, behind 7 Hall of Famers and the currently active great of Mike Trout. If we look at his JAWS of 57.3, which considers both his 7-year peak WAR and his career WAR, he falls a spot to 9th, but the guy that passed him is another Hall of Famer in Duke Snider. Beltran's 1,587 RBI ranks him 5th among CF, behind 4 HoFers. His 1,582 runs scored ranks him 10th among CF, behind 6 HoFers. While his 312 career stolen bases may not seem excessively impressive to you (just 45th all-time among CF), he amassed that many while only being caught stealing 49 times. Every CF with more steals than him was caught stealing more times. Beltran was truly an excellent base stealer. He has the 4th highest career stolen base percentage of all-time across all positions, according to Baseball Reference's leaderboard qualifications. And he stole more bases than the 3 guys ahead of him on that list combined. In terms of accolades, Beltran was a 9 time All-Star, tied for the 7th most among CF behind 5 HoFers and Trout. He also won 3 Gold Gloves, 2 Silver Sluggers, and was the 1999 Rookie of the Year. He never won an MVP, but finished in the top 10 in voting twice. Beltran was also a member of the 2017 Word Series champion Houston Astros, which is the only slight source of reason to exclude him from Cooperstown. The Astros that season were of course caught up in a sign-stealing scandal that resulted in the suspensions of their GM and manager for the 2020 season (both of whom got fired), a $5 million fine, and the loss of their 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2020 and 2021. The bench coach was determined to be the mastermind of the operation, and was suspensed for the 2020 postseason (although he also was fired, but then rehired). Beltran was also named in MLB's report, which prevented him from being the Mets' manager in 2019. I obviously do not support the Astros' actions in 2017 but do not think they are enough to exclude Beltran from Cooperstown. The punishments that the MLB dealt out were not extreme enough to me to justify a Hall of Fame exclusion. Pete Rose isn't in the Hall because he was literally banned from baseball by the commissioner. None of the Astros' players were banned, suspended, or even fined. We aren't talking about the 1919 Black Sox here. The Astros' title remains with them. And the sign-stealing doesn't appear to really be the reason why the Astros were good, either. The Astros have been a dynasty for a while now, even after the scandal has come to the public eye, winning the AL pennant in 2019 and 2021 and the World Series again this past year. They won their division in 2018 and made it to the ALCS in 2020. Beltran was in his final season and had a negative WAR in 2017, so he certainly didn't personally benefit on the field that much. Beltran, albeit a seasoned veteran, was still just a player on the team, not the ultimate leader of the team. Brian McCann supposedly asked him to stop. The hitting coach claims Beltran was a leader of the operation, while Carlos Correa claims he wasn't. I digress. I just don't think the scandal had a big enough impact on Beltran's career or the quality of the Astros as a team to merit it as a reason from preventing him getting into Cooperstown. The initial version of the Hall of Fame predictive model predicts Beltran as a Hall of Famer, giving him a 72.73% probability of being a Hall of Famer. Given that the voting approval rate is 75% though, one might believe that Beltran won't be good enough. Of course, the model isn't aware of his ties to the 2017 sign stealing scandal, so it will overpredict his probability in light of that lack of information. Some voters are certaintly docking him for his involvement. All 4 of the submodels give Beltran a greater than 50% probability of being a Hall of Famer. The updated version of the Hall of Fame predictive model also predicts Beltran as a Hall of Famer, giving him a 81.65% probability of being a Hall of Famer. This shoots him up over the 75% line, but recall that the updated model is less accurate. All 4 of the submodels give Beltran a greater than 50% probability of being a Hall of Famer. Beltran's total Player Value of 416.4 ranks 38th among position players from 1973-2021, above Darrell Evans and below Willie Randolph (perhaps two highly underrated players, as neither is in the Hall). With 4737 position players during that span, Beltran is among the top 0.80% of players, good enough to merit induction. His Batting Value of 284.8 ranks 41st, above Ellis Burks and behind Andrew McCutchen. His Fielding Value of 108.7 ranks 197th, above Mike Lowell and behind Mike Benjamin. His Baserunning Value of 23.0 also ranks 21st, above Barry Bonds and below Ron Leflore. So all you crazy Bonds fans out there that like to hype him being the only 400+ homer and 400+ stolen base guy in history, note that Beltran also had 400+ homers and his base stealing was more impressive when you consider his position and how many times he was caught stealing. Beltran had a 60+ Player Value season in 2006 when he finished 4th for the NL MVP and posted his highest WAR season of 8.2, as well as three other 50+ Player Value seasons and two other 40+ Player Value seasons. My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: Hall of Famer Player Value: Hall of Famer Andruw Jones, CF (1996-2012) Jones is in his 6th year on the ballot, and I already advocated for his induction last year. He doesn't meet the 500 homer mark, but he's close with 434. That puts him just 1 home run behind Beltran for 6th most all-time among centerfielders, with 4 Hall of Famers ahead of them in Mays, Griffey Jr., Mantle, and Dawson. The rest of Jones' traditional counting stats don't stack up as well among CF given his shortened career that ended at age 35. His WAR of 62.7 ranks 14th among CF, behind 10 Hall of Famers, Trout, Beltran, and Kenny Lofton. I like all of those guys for the Hall. His JAWS of 54.6 ranks even better at 11th among CF, behind 7 Hall of Famers and the aforementioned 3 players. What really puts Jones over the top is his stellar fielding. His 10 Gold Gloves are tied for the 3rd most among outfielders with Ichiro, Al Kaline, and Ken Griffey Jr. Two of these dudes are Hall of Famers, and the other one surely will be once he reaches the ballot in 2025. The two outfielders with more Gold Gloves are Hall of Famers Roberto Clemente and Willie Mays with 12 each. WAR agrees with Jones' fielding ability as well. His Rfield of 235 is the 4th most all-time across all positions, and the most all-time among outfielders. If basically every centerfielder with as many HRs or as many Gold Gloves as Jones is in the Hall of Fame, shouldn't Jones be as well? Not to mention him rating as the greatest defensive outfielder ever, according to WAR... Jones had a domestic violence incident in 2012. Voters have used such incidents as reasons not to vote for Omar Vizquel and Francisco Rodriguez, but have been seemingly ignoring Jones', given his much higher percentage of votes received. The initial Hall of Fame predictive model does not predict Jones as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 25.01%. However, one of the four initial submodels does predict Jones as a Hall of Famer. That was the least accurate of the initial submodels though, with an AUC of .9493. The updated Hall of Fame predictive model also does not predict Jones as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 10.32%. Now, none of the four updated submodels predict Jones as a Hall of Famer. For his career, Jones had a total Player Value of 334.9, which ranks 65th among position players from 1973-2021. I have 4737 players on record for that span, meaning Jones is in the top 1.37% during the period, just slightly off Hall of Fame pace. He sits above non-Hall of Famer Buddy Bell and below Hall of Famer Tim Raines. His Batting Value of 177.9 ranks 112th, ahead of Pedro Guerrero but behind Jose Altuve. His Fielding Value of 157.8 ranks 83rd, above defensive great Mark Belanger but behind Robby Thompson (note that Belanger's first season was in 1965, so part of his value is cut off here). Jones had four impressive 40+ Player Value seasons and another 39 Player Value season. In 2005 when he finished 2nd in the NL MVP voting, his Player Value of 44.0 ranks just 9th in the NL. In 2000 when he posted his highest WAR season of 8.2 and finish 8th in the NL MVP voting, his Player Value of 47.2 (also his highest season) ranks just 10th in the NL. My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Jeff Kent, 2B (1992-2008) Kent is in his 10th and final year on the ballot, and he was on my hypothetical ballot last year as well. His 377 home runs are the most by a second baseman in history. Cano is active (and used steroids) and ranks 2nd with 335, while players 3-6 are all in Cooperstown. The all-time catcher HR leader is Mike Piazza with 427, who is in the Hall of Fame. The all-time first base HR leader is Albert Pujols with 703, who will surely be in the Hall, and Hall of Famer Jim Thome is 2nd with 612. The all-time third base HR leader is Mike Schmidt with 548, who is in the Hall. The all-time shortstop HR leader is A-Rod with 696, who would surely be in the Hall if not for steroids, and technically still has a chance as he's still on the ballot. Hall of Famer Ernie Banks is 2nd with 512. The all-time left field HR leader is Bonds with 762, who would surely be in the Hall if not for steroids. The same is true for 2nd place Manny Ramirez at 555, who still has a shot since he's still on the ballot. Hall of Famer Ted Williams is 3rd with 521. The all-time center field HR leader is Hall of Famer Willie Mays with 660. The all-time right field HR leader is Hall of Famer Hank Aaron with 755. Every single positional HR leader that did not use steroids is in the Hall of Fame, besides Jeff Kent. Kent's 1,518 RBI ranks 3rd all-time among second basemen, behind Hall of Famers Nap Lajoie and Rogers Horsnby. His 2,461 hits are 13th all-time among second basemen, behind 10 Hall of Famers, the technically active and steroid using Cano, and the notable compiler Julio Franco (who played until he was 48). Kent's 1,320 runs scored rank 12th all-time among second basemen, behind 10 Hall of Famers and Lou Whitaker, who absolutely should be in Cooperstown. His 560 doubles rank 5th all-time among second basemen, behind 3 Hall of Famers and Cano. You get the picture. Kent was one of the best hitting second basemen ever. Defensively, Kent wasn't stellar, but not enough to jeopardize his candidacy in my opinion. He never won any Gold Gloves, and his Rfield of -42 is the 22nd worst all-time among second basemen. But Hall of Famer Joe Morgan ranks even worse with an Rfield of -48. Morgan won 5 Gold Gloves, so there is some disconnect there. Kent was the 2000 MVP, a 5 time All-Star, and a 4 time Silver Slugger. Just 15 second basemen have won an MVP in history, and 11 of them are in the Hall of Fame. The initial Hall of Fame model does not predict Kent as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 20.54%. None of the four initial submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer. The updated Hall of Fame model also does not predict Kent as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 14.47%. None of the four updated submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer. Kent's total Player Value of 463.8 ranks 28th among position players from 1973-2021, above Hall of Famer Larry Walker and below Hall of Famer Roberto Alomar. With 4737 players in that span, Kent ranks in the top 0.59% of players, clearly good enough for induction. His Batting Value of 324.6 ranks 31st, above Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell and behind Lance Berkman. His Fielding Value of 148.0 disproves the notion from WAR that he was a poor defender. He ranks 96th, above Jose Molina and behind Jim Edmonds. Kent posted two 50+ Player Value seasons and four 40+ Player Value seasons. My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Hall of Famer Scott Rolen, 3B (1996-2012) I would have voted for Rolen last year if I had a vote, who is now on his 6th year on the ballot. Rolen is one of the best defensive third basemen in history, as his 8 Gold Gloves rank him 4th all-time among third basemen behind Hall of Famers Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt, and the still active Nolan Arenado. WAR agrees too, as his Rfield of 175 ranks 12th all-time across all positions. Defense may be the driver of Rolen's case, but he certainly wasn't Mark Belanger. He hit 316 home runs, amassed 2,077 hits, and his 517 doubles rank 6th all-time among third basemen, behind 4 Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre. His 7 All-Star appearances ties him for 12th all-time among third basemen with Hall of Famers Paul Molitor and Edgar Martinez (who both were also largely DHs), and behind 8 other Hall of Famers. WAR is also high on Rolen, as he ranks 10th among third basemen at 70.1 behind 8 Hall of Famers and Beltre. The same is true for his JAWS of 56.9. Rolen also won a Silver Slugger and was the 1997 Rookie of the Year. It is my opinion that any player that is one of the best defenders at his position in history, and is still a very competent batter, deserves a spot in Cooperstown. That logic applies to both Jones and Rolen. The initial Hall of Fame model does not predict Rolen as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 14.15%. None of the four initial submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer. The updated Hall of Fame model also does not predict Rolen as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 16.96%. None of the four updated submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer. Rolen's total Player Value of 410.0 ranks 40th among position players from 1973-2021, above Mark McGwire and behind Darrell Evans. With 4737 players in this span, that puts Rolen in the top 0.84% of players, good enough for induction. His Batting Value of 216.5 ranks 73rd, above Ron Cey and behind Paul Goldschmidt. His Fielding Value of 192.0 ranks 50th, above Fernando Vina and behind DJ LeMahieu. Rolen had just two 50+ Player Value seasons and one 40+ Player Value season, but four seasons in the middle to upper 30s and another four seasons in the 20s. His best was his 57.4 Player Value season in 2004, when he finished 4th for the NL MVP with a 9.2 WAR, also the highest of his career. My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Hall of Famer Todd Helton, 1B (1997-2013) Helton is in his 5th year on the ballot, and would've gotten my vote last year. He has decent accolades with 5 All-Star games, 4 Silver Sluggers, and 3 Gold Gloves, but those alone aren't enough to merit his induction. What does are his career stats and his similarities to other current Hall of Famers. Two of the more recent inductions to the Hall were Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker. Let's see how Helton stacks up compared to these two Hall of Famers:
If the top 2 guys are Hall of Famers, why shouldn't Helton be? His rate stats are extremely comparable, not to mention amassing more runs scored, hits, doubles, and RBI. Martinez was primarily a DH, another position that most people think requires less defensive ability (like first base). Walker also played in Colorado for most of his career, so both him and Helton have the infamous "Coors effect". Helton did play his entire career for the Rockies, however, while Walker played just 10 seasons. OPS+ considers park effects and has Helton at 133, meaning he was still 33% above league average for his career after considering the impact of Coors. Among first basemen with at least 9000 plate appearances that ranks 13th, behind 10 Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famers Pujols and Cabrera. Helton's road OPS of .855 would rank 58th all-time among first basemen, and his overall OPS ranks 10th among first basemen behind 8 Hall of Famers and the steroid using Mark McGwire. He ranks 15th in RBI among first basemen behind 11 Hall of Famers, future Hall of Famers Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, and the steroid using Rafael Palmeiro. He ranks 4th in doubles behind recent Hall of Famer David Ortiz, and then again Pujols and Cabrera. He ranks 7th in OBP among first basemen, behind 5 Hall of Famers. If Coors was such a thing for Helton, we'd be complaining about his larger HR totals. Homers aren't nearly the crux of Helton's Hall of Fame argument. A bigger part is his ability to walk and get on base, something that parks have no impact on. He ranks 12th all-time among first basemen with 1,335, behind 7 Hall of Famers, future Hall of Famer Pujols (and maybe Votto), and steroid users Palmeiro and Jason Giambi. Helton's career OBP ranks 29th all-time across all positions, behind 21 Hall of Famers, the active Mike Trout, steroid using Barry Bonds, the banned Shoeless Joe Jackson, and a few earlier generation players that had far less plate appearances than Helton. According to WAR, Helton was also one of the best defensive first basemen of all-time. His Rfield of 76 ranks 8th among players that spent at least 50% of their time at first. His WAR of 61.8 ranks 17th among first basemen, behind 11 Hall of Famers, future HoFers Pujols and Cabrera, the active Joey Votto, and the steroid users of McGwire and Palmeiro. His JAWS of 54.2 bumps him up to 15th, putting him ahead of Eddie Murray and McGwire. And for all you Reds fans out there, Helton getting inducted would just be another step in the right direction for a player like Joey Votto having a shot at induction. His career numbers will likely end up very similar to the 3 mentioned above. The initial Hall of Fame model predicts Helton as a Hall of Famer, giving him a solid probability of 72.89%. However, that would still be below the 75% approval rating needed to actually be inducted. All four of the initial submodels give Helton a greater than 50% probability of being a Hall of Famer. The updated Hall of Fame model also predicts Helton as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 54.15%. While this is enough for Helton to be a "yes" to the model, it's now even further beneath the 75% voter approval required. Notably, now only two of the updated submodels give Helton a greater than 50% probability of being a Hall of Famer. Helton is simply put a Player Value darling. His WAR of 61.8 is impressive and somewhat highlights his greatness more so than his accolades or counting stats might, but his Player Value of 698.5 is even more impressive. Since the introduction of the DH in the AL in 1973 and up through 2021, that Player Value ranks him 5th among all players, behind Barry Bonds (1095.4), Alex Rodriguez (820.4), Mike Schmidt (787.9), and Rickey Henderson (767.4). Yes, you read that right: according to Player Value, Todd Helton is the best first baseman and the 5th best player overall since 1973. By comparison, Helton's WAR is only the 53rd best since 1973, and interestingly enough the top 4 WAR guys are also the top 4 Player Value guys. Helton sits above Ozzie Smith, who has 648.0 total Player Value. He truly was a tremendous fielder for a first baseman, as his Fielding Value of 328.6 ranks 3rd among all players in that span, behind Ozzie Smith (470.7) and Henderson (328.8), and above Frank White (328.6). He also was a solid hitter, as his Batting Value of 375.5 ranks 20th across all players during that span, sitting just above Albert Pujols (though probably behind him now, given Pujols' 2022 season). All batters ahead of him are either Hall of Famers, steroid users, or Mike Trout. With 4737 total position players during this 1973-2021 span, Helton's total Player Value ranks him in the top 0.1% during this period, clearly worthy of induction. And even if you decide you hate my Player Value metric and want to rely on WAR instead, he'd still be in the top 1.12% during that span. Helton posted an 80+ Player Value season in 2003, three other 70+ Player Value seasons, three other 50+ Player Value seasons, and a 39 Player Value season. In 2003 he finished 7th in the NL MVP, but based on Player Value he should have won it. In 2000 he finished 5th in the NL MVP, but also should have won it based on his Player Value of 76.2. We might think of Helton differently had he won two MVPs... My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: Hall of Famer Player Value: Hall of Famer Omar Vizquel, SS (1989-2012) Vizquel is in his 6th year on the ballot and would have had my vote last year as well. He didn't reach the magical 3,000 hit mark, but was close with 2,877 hits. That's good for the 44th most all-time across all positions, and the 6th most all-time among shortstops. In terms of just SS, he's behind 4 Hall of Famers and the steroid using Alex Rodriguez. Across all positions, he's behind the gambling and banned-from-baseball Pete Rose, steroid users A-Rod, Palmeiro, and Bonds, future Hall of Famers Pujols, Cabrera, Beltre, and Suzuki, and 35 Hall of Famers. Yep, that's right - Vizquel has the most hits of any player that's been on a ballot, didn't use steroids, isn't literally banned from the sport, and hasn't been inducted. He did play 24 seasons until he was 45 years old, so he certainly had ample opportunity to compile those hits. But that's kind of just how hits occur. Of the 43 players with more hits than Vizquel, 21 of them have more plate appearances than him. But career hits aren't all that Vizquel has going for him. He was also one of the best defensive shortstops ever. He won a whopping 11 Gold Gloves, the 2nd most by a shortstop in history, and tied for the 8th most across all positions. These aren't Jeter-esque undeserving Gold Gloves, either. Vizquel's Rfield of 129 is the 55th highest in history across all positions. But Vizquel was also a shortstop, which many people believe to be the most critical position to have a good defender at. Baseball Reference's dWAR considers a player's Rfield along with WAR's positional adjustment to account for this. Vizquel's dWAR of 29.5 is the 9th most all-time across all positions, and the 7th most all-time among shortstops. Vizquel was just a 3 time All-Star, but his 1,445 runs scored rank 9th all-time among shortstops, behind 5 Hall of Famers, the steroid using A-Rod, and two archaic players in Bill Dahlen and Herman Long. According to Baseball Reference's qualifications, Vizquel is the all-time career leader in fielding percentage among shortstops, and only a single shortstop (Jeter) has played more innings in the field than him. He also has the 5th highest Total Zone Runs in history among shortstops, behind 3 Hall of Famers and the defensive great Mark Belanger. Belanger won 8 Gold Gloves and has been excluded from Cooperstown due to his lackluster hitting ability, batting a dismal .228 for his career with just 1,316 hits in an 18 year career. I find Vizquel to be much more comparable to Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith than to the defensively concentrated Belanger. Vizquel started off hot in his first year on the ballot in 2018, securing 37% of the vote. He got up to 52.6% in 2020. Since then, he's seen a decline each year despite not many more extremely qualified players showing up on the ballot, receiving just 22.9% in 2022. What happened? Many voters have been using the character clause on Vizquel. It was reported during the ballot season in 2020 that Vizquel had domestically abused his wife in 2011 and 2016. In 2021, he was named in a sexual harassment case against an autistic batboy for the AA Birmingham Barons. I find both of these actions deplorable and do not support them in any way. They are blatantly obvious wrongdoings. But in the end I feel that the makeup of the baseball Hall of Fame should be the best baseball players in history, not the players that were good but also happened to be good guys as well. While moral standards have clearly increased over time, there are surely current Hall of Famers that abused their spouses. We shouldn't celebrate these actions in anyway, and I'm all for a Hall that allows for the criticism of player's character and actions off the field in their exhibits, but in the end I think that only the most extreme of actions should be able to prohibit a player from entering the Hall based on his on the field performance. Other players on the ballot have also had domestic violence incidents but have not faced the same backlash as Vizquel, such as Andruw Jones. The initial Hall of Fame predictive model does not predict Vizquel as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 21.34%. None of the four initial submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer, although one of them gave him a probability of 43.4%. The updated Hall of Fame predictive model also does not predict Vizquel as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 26.20%. Interestingly, now one of the four updated submodels predicts him as a Hall of Famer, at a probability of 52.17%. This is the most accurate of the updated submodels too, with an AUC of .9195. Vizquel's total Player Value is 285.8, which ranks 91st among position players from 1973-2021. With 4737 position players during this span, Vizquel ranks in the top 1.92%, impressive but outside of the Hall of Fame cutoff point. He sits just above Curtis Granderson and just behind Hall of Famer Jim Rice. His Batting Value of 3.43 ranks a poor 778th, above Doug Rader (who debuted in 1966 and thus has some of his value cut off) and behind the still active Daulton Varsho. This echoes the sentiments of WAR that despite Vizquel's nearly 3000 hits, he really wasn't that great of a hitter. He only amassed so many because he played until he was 45, hence why many people think of him as a "compiler". I thought Vizquel's Rbat of -244 was because we were comparing a stellar defensive shortstop to the league average across all positions, but in reality even when compared to the 25th percentile of shortstops, Vizquel's hitting doesn't hold water across his career. However, his Fielding Value of 278.5 ranks a very impressive 6th during that span, above Bobby Grich and behind Brad Ausmus. Was Vizquel's defense enough to overcome his offense? I personally still think yes, but WAR and Player Value disagree. Despite stealing 404 stolen bases, which ranks 72nd all-time, he only had a Baserunning Value of 3.9, ranking 221st during the span. Vizquel posted two 40+ Player Value seasons and one 30+ Player Value season. He had a fair amount of positive batting seasons as well, especially in his prime in the late '90s and early '00s. What hurt him were his early '90s years with the Mariners and his later seasons from 2007-2012. This begs the question: should Omar really be punished for playing from when he was 40-45? Sure it helped his counting stats, but teams chose to put him on the field. If we remove his last 6 seasons, Vizquel puts up a total Player Value of 325.9, with a Fielding Value of 253.7 and now a not as poor Batting Value of 64.8. That would rank him 68th, ahead of Tony Gwynn and behind Albert Belle, and in the top 1.44%. Still not quite at the Hall line, but solid improvement. My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Torii Hunter, OF (1997-2015) Hunter is in his 3rd year on the ballot and received just 5.3% of the vote last year, barely enough to cover the 5% needed to remain on the ballot. I did not include him on my 10 person ballot last year (but did place him in my "close" players), as he was blocked by the 10th year candidates of Schilling, Bonds, and Clemens. According to Ryan Thibodaux and friends' Ballot Tracker of publicy released BBWAA ballot, I am far in the minority with my support of Hunter. While we're here, shoutout to Joe Haakenson who voted for 8 of the 9 guys that I would have. He voted for Wagner last year, but dropped him from his vote this year. He also voted for Jimmy Rollins and Bobby Abreu. So, given this unpopular stance, why Hunter? My arguments for Jones, Rolen, and Vizquel have all been their superb defense combined with solid offensive production. Keeping things as simple as career hits, home runs, and Gold Gloves, we have the following:
Jones was power heavy and received 41.4% of the vote last year. Vizquel was contact heavy and received 49.1% of the vote in 2021, until his character came into question and he lost some votes. Rolen was a balance of power and contact (less ABs and a higher career AVG than Jones) and received 63.2% of the vote last year. Hunter was also a balance of power and contact, but received just over 5% last year! Again, 9 Gold Gloves is no small accomplishment. Just 23 players have done that in history across all positions, and just 7 outfielders have reached that many. 15 of those 23 are in the Hall of Fame, 3 are currently on the ballot (Jones, Vizquel, and Hunter), and 2 have yet to appear on a ballot (Yadier Molina and Ichiro Suzuki). All 3 remaining non-Hall of Fame, 9 time Gold Glove winners were first basemen, a position that most people think is less important defensively. Maybe 9 Gold Gloves is too focused of a cutoff. There are 7 outfielders that won 8 Gold Gloves, and only 1 of them is in Cooperstown (Andre Dawson). Surely the 9th Gold Glove isn't that important. Paul Blair and Garry Maddox were excellent defenders, but mediocre with a bat, hence their lack of induction. Alex Gordon technically hasn't been on a ballot yet, but I'm sure he'll receive a similar fate. Barry Bonds is Hall of Fame worthy, but his steroid use is what has kept him out. Jim Edmonds and Dwight Evans are more so in the same boat as Torii Hunter. If you think those guys are Hall worthy, you ought to think that Hunter is too. Hunter played about 2/3 of his total innings at CF and about 1/3 at RF. He ranks 11th among CF in career home runs, behind 6 Hall of Famers, as well as Jones & Beltran. He has many more hits than Edmonds or Dale Murphy. His 498 doubles rank 9th among CF, behind 5 Hall of Famers and Beltran. He has many more home runs than Johnny Damon or Al Oliver. His 1,391 RBI rank 9th among CF, behind 7 Hall of Famers and Beltran. The initial Hall of Fame model does not predict Hunter as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 17.77%. None of the four initial submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer. The updated Hall of Fame model also does not predict Hunter as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 10.46%. None of the four updated submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer. Hunter's total Player Value of 215.8 ranks 157th out of the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 3.31% of players, not good enough to make the Cooperstown cutoff. He ranks just above Fernando Vina and just behind Shin-Soo Choo. His Batting Value of 86.3 ranks 262nd, above Jason Varitek and behind Bobby Bonds (who debuted in 1968 and thus has some of his value cut off). Player Value seems to disagree with my thoughts about the quality of Hunter's hitting; he wasn't bad, but he wasn't as good to still merit induction. His Fielding Value of 143.4 ranks 107th, above Yadier Molina and behind Johnny Damon. That's also not quite good enough to support induction. Hunter also had a Baserunning Value of -13.9, as he was particularly hurt for being a CF that lacked the speed and base stealing efficiency of some of his positional counterparts. 195 steals while being caught 99 times isn't nearly the clip needed to hold up with most center fielders. Because of this, he ranks as the 8th worst in Baserunning Value during the span, above Duane Kuiper and behind Harold Reynolds. My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Billy Wagner, CP (1995-2010) Wagner is in his 8th year on the ballot, and I would have voted for him last year. Closers have been a tricky thing for Cooperstown to handle, as only 8 players have been inducted. Actual relief pitchers, meaning the setup guys and guys that get you through the middle innings, have virtually no shot at being in the Hall of Fame. I do not think that is a good thing. These are important roles in the sport, and any player that masters his role and performs above all others should have a chance to be inducted. Cooperstown needs more closers. For a long time, saves have been the key traditional statistic to judge closers on. However, there isn't really an established saves threshold that merits induction like there is with 300 wins, 3,000 strikeouts/hits, or 500 home runs. The top 3 career saves leaders are all in the Hall of Fame. Four others have at least 300 saves, a threshold probably too low now given the increase in the use of closing pitchers. Hoyt Willhelm had just 228 and was retiring just as the likes of Rollie Fingers and Goose Gossage were taking off. I think 400 saves could be a good cutoff point, as just 6 pitchers have reached that mark in history, and it helps us avoid inducting some closers that have more of "Hall of Great" energy. With 422 career saves, Wagner ranks 6th in history and would be over my established threshold above. Wagner was also a 7 time All-Star, which ties him with 5 players for the 5th most among closers in history. Of the 4 players ahead of him, 3 are Hall of Famers and Craig Kimbrel is still active. Of the 4 players tied with him, 3 are Hall of Famers and Aroldis Chapman is still active. These two arguments alone - career saves and All-Star games - squarely place Wagner among the Cooperstown calibre closers. Besides the great Mariano Rivera, Wagner's 2.31 career ERA is the highest among qualified closers who aren't still active (and the 3 active guys ahead of Rivera and Wagner have only pitched a fraction of their career innings). The reliever adjusted version of JAWS has Wagner at 24.9, ranking 6th all-time among closers, behind 5 Hall of Famers. People like to discredit relievers for induction because of their lack of innings compared to other starting pitchers. Wagner had a 2.31 ERA in 903 innings pitched. Mark Buehrle had a 3.81 ERA in 3,283 innings pitched. Finding the intersection of quality and quantity can be difficult. I don't think WAR does a great job of capturing this, as even the greatest closer of all-time in Rivera has a lower WAR than Buehrle. The truth is that the later innings in close games are important to victory. Someone needs to go out there and pitch well, and guys that exceed at doing that substantially more than their peers should be represented in the Hall. Wagner's total Player Value of 135.9 ranks 40th among the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 0.76%, good enough for the Hall. He sits above Kevin Appier and behind Brandon Webb, presumably two underrated guys. In reality there just aren't enough pitchers in the Hall, especially during this era. If 1.18% is the going rate for Hall of Fame induction, that rate should hold for both position players and pitchers, since they both fill important and distinct roles. Wagner's Pitching Value of 138.6 ranks 28th, ahead of Jake Peavy and behind C.C. Sabathia. His Fielding Value of 2.13 is low because as a closer he had less chances in the field to be able to stand out defensively over his reliever peers. And since Wagner played in the NL his entire career, his hitting was somewhat of a factor, even as a closer. Wagner had just 21 plate appearances in his career, but he didn't bode too well, even when compared to other NL relief pitchers. He had a Batting Value of -4.85, not too surprising for a guy that went 2/21 for his career with a .243 OPS and a -35 OPS+. Nontheless, Wagner's pitching alone was enough to merit his induction according to Player Value, and his high ranking shows how Player Value can compare relievers more favorably to starters. Using pitcher WAR from 1973-2021, Wagner ranks just 128th. Mariano Rivera ranks 10th in Player Value during this span, and 31st in WAR. Wagner had one 20+ Player Value season in 1999, and another 19.7 Player Value season in 2003. My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Hall of Famer Francisco Rodriguez, CP (2002-2017) K-Rod is in his 1st year on the ballot, and is another closer that I think deserves induction to make up for their current lack of representation in Cooperstown. His 437 career saves are above my 400 saves threshold and rank him 4th all-time, the most of any player not in the Hall of Fame. He is also the single-season record holder for saves, when he recorded 62 in 2008. His 6 All-Star games tie him with 5 others for the 10th most all-time. Of the 9 players with more, 6 are Hall of Famers, one is Wagner, and 2 are active (Kimbrel and Chapman). Of the 5 players he's tied with, 2 are Hall of Famers, and he has more saves, innings pitched, and strikeouts than Joe Nathan or Jonathan Papelbon. Roy Face played when there were 2 All-Star games per year, so he really only had 3 All-Star seasons compared to K-Rod's 6. K-Rod was named the reliever of the year twice, and just 20 closers in history have done so. Of those 20, 6 are in the Hall of Fame and 5 are still active. I don't think K-Rod's case is as strong as Wagner's (who has had to wait at least 8 years), so his case isn't on the forefront of my closer Hall of Fame arguments. His case is also blemished via the character clause, as he also had a domestic violence incident in 2012. Player Value is less high on K-Rod than it was on Wagner. His total Player Value of 72.9 ranks 101st out the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 1.92%, not quite Hall worthy. He sits above Larry Andersen and behind Josh Johnson. His Pitching Value of 64.2 ranks 89th, ahead of the still active Yu Darvish and behind Barry Zito. He had a Fielding Value of 8.8, decent compared to his reliever peers. K-Rod has just 2 plate appearances in his career, so his Batting Value of 0.2 is of no consequence. K-Rod had one 20+ Player Value season in his great 2004 record setting season. My opinion: Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Bobby Abreu, RF (1996-2014) Abreu is in his 4th year on the ballot, and while I wouldn't have voted for him last year, he was at least in my group of guys that I thought were close. But I notably have a 9 person ballot this year, so Abreu still doesn't quite do it for me. I would like him to remain on the ballot as long as he can though, to give me as much time to ponder, analyze, review, and be convinced as I need. Next year's ballot has some solid names though, so I'd be surprised if Abreu is able to crack my top 10. For now, the short of it is that Bobby Abreu doesn't come off the tongue as a Hall of Fame player to me. I never thought of him as such as a kid when he was playing, but to be fair his prime years were when I was still quite young. His accolades aren't impressive, as he's just a 2 time All-Star and a single Gold Glove and Silver Slugger winner. WAR relatively likes Abreu, as his 60.2 ranks 19th among rightfielders. That's more than Ichiro and 12 Hall of Famers at RF, including my favorite player Vladimir Guerrero. Ahead of him are 13 Hall of Famers, the steroid using Gary Sheffield, the banned Shoeless Joe Jackson, Dwight Evans, and Reggie Smith. His 2,470 hits rank 22nd among RF, behind 17 Hall of Famers, Ichiro, Sheffield, Rusty Staub, and Dave Parker. His 574 doubles impressively rank 4th among RF, behind 3 Hall of Famers. His power isn't as impressive though, as his 288 home runs rank 39th among RF. His 1,363 RBI rank 21st behind a decent contingency of non-Hall of Famers in Parker, Staub, Evans, and steroid users Sheffield, Sosa, Jose Canseco, and Juan Gonzalez. His 1,476 walks also impressively rank 4th among RF, behind 3 Hall of Famers. While it's surprising that Abreu stole 400 bases, that really isn't nearly enough for it to have significant value compared to the other aspects of the game. WAR rates Abreu as a below average defender across his career, giving him an Rfield of -7. That's not terrible, but clearly defense isn't an argument for Abreu's induction. In the end, Abreu is just an unsexy player, likely the reason for his lack of accolades. While other rightfielders were accumulating hits and blasting home runs, Abreu was getting walked and hitting doubles. I can appreciate and acknowledge that Abreu was a better player than I first perceived, but I'm not quite convinced that he's Cooperstown worthy yet, although it seems to be getting closer and closer each year. The initial model does not predict Abreu as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 34.42%. However, one of the four initial submodels does predict Abreu as a Hall of Famer, the same one that supported Andruw Jones. This was the least accurate of the initial submodels, though, with an AUC of .9493. The updated model also does not predict Abreu as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 17.47%. Now, none of the four updated submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer. Abreu's total Player Value of 266.1 ranks 107th among the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, ahead of Placido Polanco and behind Sammy Sosa. That puts him in the top 2.26%, good but not quite Hall of Fame territory. His Batting Value of 237.5 ranks 65th, ahead of Carlos Delgado but behind Jorge Posada. His Fielding Value of 11.5 is unimpressive and is what really hurts his case. That ranks a dismal 1596th, above the still active Illdemaro Vargas and behind Alex Cole. Abreu was just barely an acceptable fielder throughout his career. However, his Baserunning Value of 17.1 ranks a favorable 39th, ahead of Toby Harrah and behind Carl Crawford. Abreu put up two 50+ Player Value seasons. He did a good job of avoiding bad seasons, but he just didn't have enough really great seasons. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Jimmy Rollins, SS (2000-2016) Rollins is in his 2nd year on the ballot and was in my group of close guys last year. He's a memorable name but a lot of the Phillies players of that time seem to be a collective group of "Hall of Great" guys to me; teammate Ryan Howard has already appeared on and fallen off the ballot. In terms of accolades, Rollins is one of just 14 shortstops to be named MVP. Six of those 14 are in the Hall of Fame and two used steroids (A-Rod and Tejada), but there's still 5 other non-Hall of Famers there. Rollins appeared in just 3 All-Star games, which ranks an unimpressive 49th, but Robin Yount also won an MVP and appeared in 3 All-Star games and is in the Hall of Fame. Rollins' 4 Gold Gloves ties him with four others for the 7th most by a shortstop. Three of the six with more Gold Gloves are in the Hall of Fame, and just one of the four tied with him is in Cooperstown, granted two of those four are still active players (Brandon Crawford and Andrelton Simmons). Rollins also won a Silver Slugger. So I compared Rollins to Yount, but Yount is above the magical 3,000 hit mark with 3,142 hits, while Rollins is below it with just 2,455 hits. That ranks him 14th all-time among shortstops, behind 10 Hall of Famers, steroid using A-Rod, should-be-Hall-of-Famer-if-not-for-character-clause Vizquel, and the archaic Bill Dahlen, who arguably should also be a Hall of Famer. Rollins' 231 home runs ranks him 10th all-time among shortstops, behind 4 Hall of Famers and steroid users A-Rod and Tejada. His 511 doubles ranks 7th all-time among shortstops, behind 5 Hall of Famers and A-Rod. His 470 stolen bases rank 11th all-time among shortstops, behind 5 Hall of Famers. His 1,421 runs scored ranks 10th all-time among shortstops, behind 5 Hall of Famers and A-Rod. However, Rollins' WAR of 47.6 ranks 26th among shortstops and is lower than 20 of the 23 Hall of Fame shortstops. His JAWS of 40.1 ranks 32nd among shortstops. We can parse things to make Rollins standout, as he's the only shortstop in history with at least 2,400 hits, 200 home runs, and 400 stolen bases. But again, those 400 steals don't really add all the value you may think to make a player a Hall of Famer; Rollins wasn't Rickey Henderson. I think Rollins has a decent case, but to me he's just a shining example of what a borderline Hall of Famer looks like. He comes short in the cumulative stats and accolades where other players like A-Rod and Vizquel are more impressive, and his WAR isn't good enough to help him make up that ground. The initial model does not predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 34.62%. However, one of the four initial submodels does predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer. This was also the most accurate of the initial submodels, with an AUC of .9797. The updated model also does not predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer, but gives him a decent probability of 45.22%. Now, two of the four updated submodels predict him as a Hall of Famer. While one of these is the most accurate updated submodel, with an AUC of .9195, the other is the least accurate of the updated submodels, with an AUC of .8879. The two intermediate submodels that don't predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer are more critical of him and are accurate enough to beat out the other two for the final prediction to still be a no. Rollins has a total Player Value of 229.2, which ranks 146th among the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 3.08%. He sits above Andy Van Slyke and behind Ray Lankford. His Batting Value of 147.6 ranks 144th, above Joe Mauer and behind Mark Teixeira. His Fielding Value of 52.6 ranks just 589th, ahead of Dave Martinez and behind Dave Stapelton. So while Rollins was a pretty solid hitter, it just wasn't quite enough to make up for pretty standard shortstop defensive play. What helps a little is his Baserunning Value of 28.9, which ranks an impressive 13th, above Tony Womnack and behind Julio Cruz. Rollins was clearly above most of his shortstop contemporaries when it came to stealing bases. He put up just one 40+ Player Value season during his career, which was his MVP wining season of 2007. However, he had just the 8th best Player Value in 2007 at 46.5. He was not the best shortstop in the NL, as the MVP should have went to Troy Tulowitzki at 66.9. He also wasn't the best Phillie, as Chase Utley finished with a 64.0 for the 2nd most in the NL. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Mark Buehrle, SP (2000-2015) Buehrle is in his 3rd year on the ballot and received just 5.8% of the votes last year, and I only had him in my list of guys that I thought were close. His accolades are not terribly impressive, as his 5 All-Star games are tied with 22 pitchers for the 53rd most all-time among starters. He never won a Cy Young and only received votes once, when he finished 5th in 2005. However, he is one of only 13 pitchers to win at least 4 Gold Gloves. Of the other 12 though, only 6 are in the Hall of Fame and 2 are still active (Greinke and Keuchel). Greinke and Keuchel also have a Cy Young to their name however, as do 3 of the Hall of Famers (Maddux, Gibson, Palmer), and one of the other non-Hall of Famers in Ron Guidry. Of the other 3 Hall of Famers with at least 4 Gold Gloves, Jim Kaat had a whopping 16 Gold Gloves to go with 283 wins and it still took him until last year to get inducted despite retiring in 1983. Mike Mussina has nearly double the amount as Buehrle with 7 Gold Gloves, as well as 270 wins and 2,813 strikeouts. Phil Niekro had just 5 Gold Gloves, but had 318 wins and 3,342 strikeouts. Buehrle initially seems most similar to non-Hall of Famers Mark Langston and Kenny Rogers. Point being: while rare, 4 Gold Gloves does not a Hall of Fame pitcher make. Buehrle's typical pitcher marks are also not too impressive. Every pitcher with 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts is in the Hall of Fame unless they haven't been on a ballot yet, used steroids, or are named Curt Schilling and blocked due to writers' use of the character clause. Buehrle falls well short of these automatic thresholds though, with just 214 wins and 1,870 strikeouts. He's tied with Rick Reuschel in wins for 93rd all-time among starters, and ranks just 105th all-time among starters in strikeouts. His career ERA of 3.81 is not very promising either, ranking 377th all-time among qualified starters. Of the 72 primarily starters in the Hall of Fame, just 5 of them have an ERA higher than Buehrle's. Of those 5, 4 of them played around the turn of the 20th century. Jack Morris is a fairly controversial Hall of Fame pitcher, and even he has notably more wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched than Buehrle. I will say that comparing Buehre's career ERA among all pitchers can be flawed because a lot of those (especially active ones) pitchers threw far fewer innings. And that's really the crux of Buehle's case for Cooperstown: durability and innings pitched. But even at surface level, this doesn't seem all that impressive. His 3,283.1 innings pitch still rank just 95th all-time. Of the 94 players with more innings pitched, 86 of them have a lower ERA than Buehrle, while just 10 of them had a higher ERA. So what's the deal? The key idea is that pitchers are not being used like they used to, so Buehrle's production in terms of innings pitched needs to be measured relative to his peers. Since 1980, just 14 pitchers have tossed as many innings as Buehrle. Of those 14, only 7 had a career ERA lower than Buehrle's, and 5 of them are in the Hall of Fame, to go with the steroid using Roger Clemens and likely future Hall of Famer C.C. Sabathia (who has yet to appear on a ballot and reached the 3,000 strikeout mark). Again, there is also Hall of Famer Jack Morris who pitched more innings but had a higher ERA than Buehrle. Andy Pettite also pitched more innings with a higher ERA. This seems to paint a picture of Buehle being the dividing line between quality and quantity, but the 3,283 inning cutoff mark is somewhat restrictive and random. If we expand it to pitchers with 3,000 or more innings pitched since 1980, we see that we get 25 hurlers, 14 of which had lower ERAs than Buehlre. Now also ahead of him are two likely future Hall of Famers in Verlander and Greinke, and the should-be-Hall-of-Famer-if-not-for-character-clause Curt Schilling. But also now ahead of him are notable non-Hall of Famers Kevin Brown, Orel Hershiser, Tim Hudson, and Dennis Martinez. WAR takes into account innings pitched. The more a player pitches at a quality above replacement level, the higher his WAR will be. Buehrle's WAR of 59.1 ranks 69th all-time among starters. Among pitchers since 1980, his WAR ranks 18th. Ahead of him are 7 Hall of Famers, 5 guys yet to be on a ballot, steroid users Clemens and Pettite, and the character clause blocked Schilling. But Kevin Brown and David Cone do notably have higher WARs and are also not in the Hall of Fame. In the end, I think Buehrle's ability to stay healthy and pitch many innings has been impressive, but not impressive enough to merit induction. Until pitchers that pitched more and at a higher level like Schilling, Brown, and Hershiser are in Cooperstown, I can't push Buehrle too much. He's basically the intersection of durable but effective hurlers like Chuck Finley and Charlie Hough and solid defensive pitchers like Mark Langston and Kenny Rogers, but none of these 4 are Hall of Famers and I'm not convinced that some combination of their skills is Cooperstown worthy. Buehrle's total Player Value of 82.3 ranks 85th among the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 1.62%, not quite good enough for the Hall of Fame mark. He sits ahead of Roger McDowell and behind the still active Sonny Gray. His Pitching Value of 12.6 is actually rather unimpressive and ranks just 379th, ahead of Jared Burton and behind Mark Wohlers. Most of Buehrle's value actually comes from his glove, as his Fielding Value of 84.3 ranks a solid 11th, ahead of Jake Westbrook and behind Livan Hernandez. It seems that Buehrle's Gold Gloves were well justified. Buehrle's Batting Value of -14.5 doesn't help him either, ranking as the 176th worst, ahead of Rick Helling but behind Amaury Telemaco (my, what a name!). But hey, Randy Johnson ranks as the 11th worst in Batting Value but still finishes in the top 10 in total Player Value during this span. Buehrle posted two 20+ Player Value seasons in 2001 and 2005. He finished 5th in the AL Cy Young in 2005, but his Pitching Value ranked 4th in the AL and his Player Value ranked 2nd in the AL that year. Buehrle was a solid fielding pitcher throughout his career, and a good pitcher during his prime years, but his poor Pitching Value as he aged is what really does his case in. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Andy Pettitte, SP (1995-2013) Pettitte is in his 5th year on the ballot and was a no for me last year despite perhaps being there numbers-wise because of his PED use. Pettitte was named in the Mitchell Report, said to have used PEDs by a former player during a federal raid, and has confessed to his PED use. Though he was never suspended any games, his use of PEDs is cut and dried. Pettite's 256 career wins rank 42nd all-time, behind 34 Hall of Famers. He has more wins than basically 34 Hall of Famers too, so in terms of wins Pettitte is right there among average Hall of Fame starting pitchers. His 2,448 career strikeouts rank 46th all-time, behind 25 Hall of Famers. He has more strikeouts than basically 43 Hall of Famers, so he'd actually be an above average Hall of Fame starter in terms of strikeouts. His 3.85 career ERA is less exciting and currently ranks 386th all-time among qualified starters, and his 3,316 innings pitched rank 90th all-time. Only 7 pitchers have thrown that many innings and had a higher ERA than Pettitte, while 83 pitchers were able to throw that many innings with a lower ERA. Only 1 of the 7 is in the Hall of Fame (Jack Morris), while 47 of the 83 are in the Hall of Fame. The quantity of Pettitte's production and the quality of that production does not seem too impressive at face, but again let's look at things with a generational lens. From 1980 to present, just 12 players have thrown as many innings as Pettitte. 7 of them did so with a lower ERA, and 5 of those are Hall of Famers. The other 2 are likely future Hall of Famer C.C. Sabathia and fellow steroid user Roger Clemens. Again, Morris threw that many innings and had a higher ERA, but he did throw about 150 more innings than Pettitte. This is basically the exact same situation that I laid out for Buehrle; both guys are right at the border of quantity and quality, when compared to other players of their time. Pettitte ranks 24th in strikeouts among starters since 1980, behind 7 Hall of Famers and maybe 5 future Hall of Famers (Sabathia, Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke?). Buehrle ranked 59th. In terms of wins, Pettitte ranks a stellar 7th among starters since 1980, behind 4 Hall of Famers, while Buehrle ranked 18th. So in terms of innings pitched and ERA, Buehrle and Pettitte are basically even, with Buehrle having a slightly lower ERA and Pettitte having slightly more innings pitched. Buehrle was the better fielding pitcher given his 4 Gold Gloves, but Pettitte racked up more wins and strikeouts, probably more important metrics for measuring pitchers for the Hall of Fame. Pettitte's WAR of 34.1 ranks 175th among starters, not too impressive. Pettitte was just a 3 time All-Star, while Buehrle went to 5. Neither ever won a Cy Young, though Pettitte finished in the top 10 five times to Buehrle's one. I'd argue they are both close but not quite there, and especially given Pettitte's steroid use I'm further not inclined to say he should be in. Pettitte's total Player Value of 130.6 ranks 46th among the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 0.88%, good enough for the Hall. He sits ahead of Tom Gordon and behind Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman. His Pitching Value of 100.8 ranks 53rd, ahead of Jimmy Key and behind the still active Kenley Jansen. He adds some solid value with his glove, as his Fielding Value of 38.9 ranks 98th, ahead of Carlos Zambrano and behind Larry Gura. He loses some value with his hitting, with a Batting Value of -9.1. Most of Pettitte's 237 career plate appearances came from his three years in the NL with the Astros from 2004-2006. He had a -10 career OPS+, getting 6 hits in all those plate appearances. Pettitte posted two 30+ Player Value seasons in 1997 and 2005. He finished 5th in Cy Young voting in both of those years, but he actually had the 3rd and 4th highest Pitcher Value in his league in those years, respectively. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, model doesn't handle pitchers, and due to steroid use Player Value: Hall of Famer Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B (1994-2016) A-Rod is in year 2 on the ballot and was a no for me last year, and will continue to be a no for me this year, because of his steroid use. I gave Bonds a pass because he was so much better than the rest of the steroid users, which A-Rod kind of is too, but Bonds also was arguably a Hall of Famer before he ever even used steroids. A-Rod has been open to his use of steroids, and I'm happy that he's come to terms with his decisions and admitted them. I respect those that acknowledge their mistakes more so than those that try to cover them up. For some reason others see it the other way around and want to penalize the for-sure suspended players of A-Rod and reward the supposedly "unknown" steroid users like Sammy Sosa. A-Rod first confessed to using steroids from 2001 to 2003 with the Rangers, and at the end of 2000 he had just 189 home runs and 966 hits, so that's not enough for me to think he was already a Hall of Famer before using steroids. He would have had 5 All-Star appearances and 4 Silver Sluggers by 2001, so he was certainly on the right track, but certainly not enough in isolation. Nonetheless, despite his transparency with his use, Rodriguez still juiced up and won't get my support for Cooperstown until the first for-sure steroid user is inducted. Steroids aside, A-Rod is obviously worthy of the Hall of Fame. His 3,115 hits surpass the general threshold of 3,000, rank 5th all-time among shortstops, and rank 22nd all-time across all positions. His 696 career home runs surpass the general threshold of 500, rank 1st all-time among shortstops, and rank 5th all-time across all positions. His 2,086 career RBI also rank 1st all-time among shortstops, and rank 4th all-time across all positions. He clearly was one of the greatest hitters ever, and still was acceptable defensively, having a career Rfield of 23, 18 of which came from his days with the Rangers and Mariners when he was primarily a shortstop, arguably the most difficult defensive position in baseball. A-Rod's WAR of 117.6 ranks 2nd all-time among shortstops, and ranks 12th all-time across all positions (besides pitchers). In terms of accolades, A-Rod's 14 All-Star games are the 3rd most by a shortstop behind Hall of Famers Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken Jr. His 3 MVPs are the most by a shortstop in history, and he's one of just 11 players with at least 3 MVPs in history. Of those 11, 7 are Hall of Famers, Trout and Pujols haven't been on a ballot yet, and Bonds also used steroids. A-Rod won 10 Silver Sluggers, including 7 as a shortstop, the 3rd most by a shortstop in history. He also won 2 Gold Glove awards. One important thing to note is that while A-Rod is technically more of a shortstop (1,272 innings), he also played 1,194 innings at third base, so the split is nearly 50/50. But given that he's one of the greatest ever, which position we compare him to is of little consequence. Not surprisingly, A-Rod's total Player Value of 820.4 ranks a very impressive 2nd among the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 0.04% of players, clearly in the Hall of Fame category. Player Value does not do any kind of discounting for players that used steroids. He sits above Mike Schmidt and 4734 others, and the only player ahead of him is Barry Bonds. His Batting Value of 656.0 also ranks 2nd behind Bonds and ahead of Schmidt. His Fielding Value of 140.1 ranks 116th, ahead of Julio Cruz and behind Chris Speier. For all that he could do with a bat, A-Rod was certainly still capable of putting up a solid defense at shortstop. A-Rod's Baserunning Value of 24.3 also ranks an impressive 19th, as he possessed unique speed for someone with such power. He sits ahead of Ron LeFlore and behind Eric Davis. A-Rod has a staggering two 90+ Player Value seasons, an 80+ Player Value season, two 70+ Player Value seasons, three 60+ Player Value seasons, and a 50+ Player Value season. That's nine seasons at a truly elite level, not to mention all of his other quality years. He won 3 actual MVPs in 2003, 2005, and 2007, but his best 3 Player Value seasons were actually in 2000, 2001, and 2002. He had the highest Player Value in 2003 and 2005, but was outpaced by Curtis Granderson in 2007, so 2 of his 3 MVPs were merited. But he also led the AL in Player Value in 1996, 2000, 2001, and 2002, so I count at least 6 MVPs that A-Rod should have won. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, due to steroid use Player Value: Hall of Famer Manny Ramirez, OF (1993-2011) Manny is in his 7th year on the ballot and like A-Rod was excluded from my voting list last year, despite his obvious statistical worthiness, due to his steroid usage. He violated MLB's drug policy twice, receiving a 50 game suspension in 2009 and a 100 game suspension in 2011. If you're caught and suspended, there is no speculation about your use, so Manny has a cut and dry case. His 555 homers are above the magical 500 mark and rank 2nd among leftfielders behind only Bonds, ahead of the 21 Hall of Famers at the position. He also ranks 15th all-time in homers across all positions, behind 8 Hall of Famers and future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols, but also behind 5 steroid users in Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire, and Palmeiro. His 1,831 RBI rank 4th among leftfielders behind Bonds and Hall of Fame Red Sox players Ted Williams and Yaz. He ranks 20th in RBI across all positions, behind 14 Hall of Famers, 2 future Hall of Famers (Pujols & Cabrera), and 3 steroid users. His 2,574 career hits rank 17th among leftfielders, behind 13 Hall of Famers, Bonds, Pete Rose, and Luis Gonzalez. His 547 career doubles rank 5th among leftfielders, behind Bonds, Rose, Gonzalez, and Yaz. His 1,544 career runs scored rank 12th among leftfielders, behind 9 Hall of Famers, Bonds, and Rose. Manny's career counting stats clearly line him up with other Hall of Famers. On the more advanced side of things, Manny's OPS+ of 154 ranks 5th among leftfielders, behind Hall of Famer Williams, steroid user Bonds, the active Yordan Alvarez, and the archaic Henry Moore (who played in just 1 season in 1884). If we remove the context of run scoring environment and park factors, Manny's raw career OPS of .996 ranks 3rd among leftfielders, behind Williams and Bonds. His WAR of 69.3 ranks 8th among leftfielders, behind 5 Hall of Famers, Bonds, and Rose. Ramirez was a poor defender, however; with a -129 Rfield for his career, he grades as the 7th worst in history according to WAR. If we consider the positional adjustment, Manny's dWAR of -21.7 still ranks as the 7th worst in history. In terms of accolades, Manny never won an MVP but won an impressive 9 Silver Sluggers, 8 as an outfielder and 1 as a DH. Those 8 are the 3rd most by an outfielder, behind Bonds and Mike Trout. It is important to note that this award didn't exist until 1980, so many outfield greats like Williams, Aaron, Mays, Mantle, Ruth, Rose, and more can't really compare. Manny also went to 12 All-Star games, which ranks 6th among leftfielders behind Bonds, Rose, and Hall of Famers Williams, Yaz, and Minnie Minoso (who benefitted from double All-Star seasons in both his Negro League and MLB playing days). So although Manny was a terrible defender, his offense certainly made up for it to make him a very valuable player over his career. However, given his steroid use and the fact that he's not quite the best of the best among the steroid users, I don't support his induction currently. Manny's total Player Value of 445.8 ranks a solid 32nd among the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 0.68%, good enough for the Hall of Fame mark. He sits above his Indians teammate Jim Thome and behind Jeff Bagwell, both Hall of Famers. His Batting Value of 485.2 ranks an even better 5th, ahead of the still active Mike Trout and behind Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. Manny's Fielding Value of -32.8 ranks as the 45th worst, ahead of Dave Kingman and behind Frank Taveras. The worst player in terms of Fielding Value during the period was Howard Johnson. Manny posted just one 50+ Player Value season and one 40+ Player Value season, but he did have many solid years in the 20-30 range. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, due to steroid use Player Value: Hall of Famer Gary Sheffield, OF/3B (1988-2009) Sheffield is in his penultimate year on the ballot and is close to not being initially inducted given that he received just 40.6% of the vote last year. He wouldn't have received my vote last year either, despite his obvious statistical worthiness, due to his use of steroids. Sheffield's case is less similar to A-Rod's and Manny's and more similar to players already voted off of the ballot like Bonds, Sosa, McGwire, and Palmeiro. He was never suspended for steroid use because when he was using them players were not being regularly tested. Sheffield didn't have the crazy home run surges of Bonds, Sosa, and McGwire - only hitting a maximum of 43 homers in a season during his career - but neither really did Palmeiro (who capped out at 47), or Manny for that matter. Sheffield was named in the Mitchell Report and implicated in the BALCO scandal. Sheffield used the same personal trainer as Barry Bonds and investigative reporting has already done the dirty work of explaining Sheffield's steroid use, so I won't rehash it here. He used steroids and there isn't much debate to be had about it, even if he we don't technically have a confession from him or a positive test like we do with A-Rod, Pettitte, or Manny. Steroids aside, Sheffield clearly has Hall of Fame numbers. He's above the magical 500 home run mark with 507 career blasts, ranking 7th among rightfielders behind 5 Hall of Famers and Sosa. His 2,869 career hits rank 18th among rightfielders, behind 14 Hall of Famers, future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki, Rusty Staub, and Dave Parker (both of whom Sheffield has vastly more homers than). His 1,676 career RBI rank 8th among rightfielders, behind 7 Hall of Famers. His 1,636 career runs scored also rank 8th among rightfielders, behind 7 Hall of Famers. His 1,475 career walks rank 5th among rightfielders, behind 3 Hall of Famers and Bobby Abreu. Sheffield's WAR of 60.5 ranks 18th among rightfielders, below the Hall of Fame average of 71.1. But I think using the mean as the average here doesn't make much sense to be fair, as positional greats like Ruth, Aaron, and Musial shouldn't severely diminish the success of other players. And from a median view of "average", we should expect that half of the guys are below the line anyway, so Sheffield's WAR ranking shouldn't be too concerning. He's got 14 Hall of Famers ahead of him, along with Dwight Evans, Reggie Smith, and the banned Shoeless Joe Jackson. Sheffield does have the same problem as Manny though, as he was also a bad fielder. His career Rfield of -195 ranks as the 2nd worst in history, ahead of only Derek Jeter. As primarily a rightfielder, the positional adjustment doesn't help much either, as his career dWAR of -27.7 also ranks as the 2nd worst in history, ahead of only Adam Dunn. So Sheffield was a poor defender, but his bat was more than enough to give him a solid WAR and have great Hall-of-Fame-esque numbers overall. However, given his steroid use and the fact that he wasn't among the greatest of steroid users and that we don't have evidence that he was a Hall of Famer before his use, I don't currently support his induction. Sheffield's total Player Value of 377.2 ranks 48th among the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 1.01%. That's above the Hall of Fame line, and specifically he's above Hall of Famer Eddie Murray and behind Chase Utley. His Batting Value of 419.1 ranks an even better 12th, ahead of Mike Piazza and behind George Brett. However, his Fielding Value of -49.1 ranks as the 25th worst, ahead of Greg Norton but behind John Wathan. Sheffield recorded one 50+ Player Value season and two 40+ Player Value seasons. His best year was 1992, when he finished 3rd in the NL MVP voting, and he had the 3rd highest Player Value in the NL as well. Bonds was still the highest, but Ryne Sandberg should have finished 2nd rather than Terry Pendleton. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, due to steroid use Player Value: Hall of Famer Nobody else on the ballot really has a shot at going in, and I don't really consider most of them as being in the neighborhood of Hall of Fame consideration. I'll go over them pretty quickly here, and note that I didn't feed most of these players through the predictive model. The exceptions were Peralta and Werth, whom the model thought very little of. Huston Street, CP (2005-2017) Street was a solid closer for most of his career, racking up 324 career saves, which ranks 20th all-time. That group of '90s, '00s, and '10s closers with about 300 or so saves is way too log jammed to really consider any of them Hall of Famers. Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon got removed from the ballot last year and I think both of them had better careers than Street. He won a Rookie of the Year, but he was never a reliever of the year and only went to 2 All-Star games. Street has a total Player Value of 62.8, ranking 127th out of the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 2.42%. He sits ahead of Hall of Famer Steve Carlton (who we should very importantly note began his career in 1965), and behind Orlando Hernandez. He had a Pitching Value of 47.2, which ranks 130th, above the still active David Robertson and below Ben Sheets. He also had a Fielding Value of 16.3. Street had no seasons with a Player Value of 20+, but he did have a 19.4 Player Value season in his rookie year of 2005. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile, and model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer John Lackey, SP (2002-2017) He was a starting pitcher in MLB for 15 seasons, which is about the extent that I can argue fro him. Went to just 1 All-Star game, finished top 10 in Cy Young voting twice, and won an ERA title. Won 188 games, struck out 2,294 guys, had a 3.92 career ERA, and pitched 2,840 innings. If guys like Mark Buehrle, or even Tim Hudson or Tim Lincecum from last year's ballot aren't Hall of Famers, then Lackey surely shouldn't be. One could say that his candidacy is Lack-ing... Lackey had a total Player Value of just 13.0, ranking 486th out of the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 9.26%. He sits above Dave Tobik and below Horacio Pina. His Pitching Value of -4.1 is certainly unimpressive, ranking 2167th ahead of Dewon Day (who pitched 1 season and only 12 innings!) and behind the still active Gabe Speier. In terms of pitching alone, Lackey was a very standard pitcher over the course of his career. Most of his value came from his glove, as his Fielding Value of 33.8 ranks 132nd, ahead of Brett Myers and behind Rick Langford. Lackey also had a not-so-stellar Batting Value of -16.4, which ranks as the 136th worst behind J.A. Happ and ahead of Carl Pavano. Lackey did have two 20+ Player Value seasons in 2006 and 2007, but other seasons wiped that value away. He finished third in the AL Cy Young in 2007, but he actually had just the 9th best Pitching Value and the 6th best Player Value in the AL that year. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile, and model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Jered Weaver, SP (2006-2017) A slightly more memorable name than Lackey, but had a shorter career with just 12 seasons. Went to 3 All-Star games and finished top 5 in Cy Young voting for each of those seasons. If Weaver could have been his 2010-2012 self for a longer portion of his career, then Cooperstown could have been a possibility. Won 150 games, struck out 1,621 batters, had a 3.63 career ERA, and pitched 2,067 innings. Ranks 2nd all-time in infield fly balls, since FanGraphs began tracking it in 2006. The similar WARs of Lackey and Weaver (37.3 vs 34.6) shows how it already kind of handles the quantity vs quality/peak debate. Weaver's total Player Value of 40.5 ranks 229th out of the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, placing him in the top 4.36%. He sits ahead of Eric Gagne and behind Ken Brett. Most of his value came from pitching, as his Pitching Value of 49.4 ranks 123rd, ahead of Brad Ziegler and behind C.J. Wilson. He loses some value with his hitting, with a Batting Value of -8.1. He had an inconsequential glove over the course of his career. Weaver posted a solid three 20+ Player Value seasons in his All-Star years of 2010-2012. In 2010 he finished 5th for the AL Cy Young, and had the 4th highest AL Pitching Value. In 2011 he finished 2nd for the Cy Young, and likewise had the 2nd highest Pitching Value in the AL. In 2012 he finished 3rd for the Cy Young, and likewise had the 3rd highest Pitching Value in the AL. Close but no cigar - if not for Verlander, we may have remembered Weaver more fondly. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile, and model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Jacoby Ellsbury, OF (2007-2017) Interestingly enough, Ellsbury is the single-season and career record holder for catcher interferences. While one or two instances may be the cause of pure chance and luck, the fact that Ellsbury got significantly more than most other players shows that it was a skill of his, and we should acknowledge that value. However, only getting on base an extra 30 times due to that skill certainly isn't enough to make a big difference. He won one Gold Glove, one Silver Slugger, and appeared in one All-Star game. All of those occurred in 2011, when he also finished 2nd in MVP. That season he uncharacteristically had some power, hitting 32 home runs, despite never hitting more than 20 in any other season and only hitting more than 10 one other time. He was tied with Jose Bautista with 8.3 WAR for the most by a position player in the AL, losing the MVP to Justin Verlander and his 8.6 WAR. If Ellsbury was his 2011 self for more of his career, he probably has a shot at Cooperstown. But alas, he was a one hit wonder (well, really a 1,376 hit wonder, but still certainly not enough). Ellsbury's had a total Player Value of 128.6, which ranks 325th out of the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 6.86%. He is just above J.J. Hardy and just behind the still active Jonathan Schoop. He had a Batting Value of 60.6 and a Fielding Value of 55.2. His Baserunning Value of 12.7 ranks 63rd, ahead of Larry Lintz and behind Von Hayes. He did have one 50+ Player Value season in 2011, which was the 2nd most in the AL, justifying his MVP place finish. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Matt Cain, SP (2005-2017) Another pitcher with a decent career but certainly not a Cooperstown worthy one. Made it to 3 All-Star games and finished top 10 in Cy Young voting twice. Needed to maintain his 2009-2012 self to maybe have a shot at the Hall. Lost more games than he won, despite being part of the golden years of the San Francisco Giants that won 3 World Series in the 2010s. Decent career ERA of 3.62, but only played 13 seasons and pitched just 2,085 innings. Struck out 1,694 batters, but ranks 4th all-time in infield flyballs since FanGraphs began tracking it, which are basically as good as strikeouts (my deeper level Player Value weight research has a strikeout and a popout worth .33 runs, with groundouts at .29 runs and flyballs/lineouts at .31 runs). Cain's total Player Value of 76.5 ranks 91st out of the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 1.73%. He sits ahead of Jake Westbrook and behind the still active Aroldis Chapman. He had an even better Pitching Value of 89.0 that ranks 61st, ahead of Tom Gordon and behind Hall of Fame closer Rollie Fingers (whose career we should also importantly note began in 1968). He had a decent Fielding Value of 10.1, but a not-so-decent Batting Value of -22.7. That's the 68th worst, ahead of Tim Belcher but behind Tony Armas. Cain posted two 20+ Player Value seasons in 2011 and 2012, the two seasons he finished top 10 in the NL Cy Young. He had the 3rd best Pitching Value in the NL in 2011, so he should have finished better than 8th like he did. He had the 5th best Pitching Value in the NL in 2012, so his 6th place finish was more justified. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile, and model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Jhonny Peralta, SS (2003-2017) Peralta went to 3 All-Star games and appears to have been in the prime of his playing days from 2011-2015, based off of his accolades. His best seasons according to WAR were actually in 2005 and 2014 (5.1 and 5.8), and he was an All-Star in neither. While Peralta has as many All-Star games as candidates that I argued more for above in Vizquel and Rollins, his other numbers are more lacking. His WAR of 30.4 is well below both of those guys and ranks 74th all-time among shortstops. He had decent power for shortstop, hitting 202 homers (ranks 14th) and 20+ in a season five times. Just 1,761 hits and 873 RBI though, to go with a pretty average 102 OPS+. Fielding was not his saving grace either, with an Rfield of -30. The initial model did not predict Peralta as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 2.65%. None of the four initial submodels predicted him as a Hall of Famer. The updated model also did not predict Peralta as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 5.90%. None of the four updated submodels predicted him as a Hall of Famer. Peralta's total Player Value of 207.0 ranks 164th out of the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 3.46%. I was actually surprised Peralta was this high. He sits above Don Money and behind Brian Dozier. He had a Batting Value of just 63.5, but his Fielding Value of 151.8 ranks a pretty solid 89th, ahead of Adrian Gonzalez and behind the still active Anthony Rizzo. His Fielding Value of -8.4 ranks as the 49th worst, above Dave Martinez and behind Dion James. He had no seasons of Player Value that were 40 or greater, capping out at 37.7 in 2005. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer R.A. Dickey, SP (2001-2017) Dickey was a late bloomer and even won a Cy Young in 2012 at the age of 37 when he went 20-6 with a 2.73 ERA in 233 innings pitched, along with league leading 230 strikeouts. He also appeared in his lone All-Star game in that season. He won his lone Gold Glove in 2013, though I've argued based on Player Value that he should have won the NL pitcher Gold Glove in 2010 as well. Besides that special 2012 season, Dickey was mainly just a knuckleball pitcher that could log you innings at a decent quality. He was nearly .500 for his career, with 120 wins and 118 losses. He recorded a 4.04 career ERA across 2,073 innings, with 1,477 strikeouts. If 2012 Dickey was the norm he could be a Hall of Famer, but that just wasn't the case. Dickey had a poor total Player Value of -17.9. That's the only player we've discussed that's been negative over his career. This means that overall, Dickey was generally in the bottom 25% of starting pitchers throughout the course of his career. He ranks a dismal 4103 out of the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021, putting him only in the top 78.18%. A better way of putting it is that Dickey is in the bottom 21.82%. He's ahead of Kei Igawa and behind Edgar Garcia. His Pitching Value of -66.7 ranks as the 159th worst, ahead of Dave Lemanczyk and behind Homer Bailey. His Fielding Value of 56.8 saves him somewhat, ranking 42nd ahead of Bob Stanley and behind Hall of Fame closer Mariano Rivera. But his Batting Value of -7.9 further hurts him, as he has a -28 career OPS+ and got just 45 hits in his 306 career plate appearances. So why's he on the ballot? Mainly just the 2012 Cy Young season, when he had his lone 20+ Player Value year. He also had a 19.1 Player Value season in 2010, driven by his fielding. In reality he had just the 3rd most Pitching Value in the NL in 2012, so that Cy Young probably wasn't merited. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile, and model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Andre Ethier, OF (2006-2017) Ethier won one Gold Glove, one Silver Slugger, appeared in two All-Star games, and finished top 10 in MVP once between 2009-2011. His best season according to WAR was actually 2012, when he put up 3.5 wins. His 12 season career really wasn't long enough to put up any impressive counting stats, with only 1,367 hits, 162 homers, and 687 RBI. He was a solid hitter during his playing years, however, with a 122 OPS+. His fielding could have been better, though, with an Rfield of -29. Overall his playing days were not great enough in quality for his peak to justify induction, with a WAR of just 21.5. Ethier's total Player Value is just 51.5, ranking 659th out of the 4737 position players from 1973-2021. That puts him in the top 13.91%, ahead of Ozzie Guillen and behind the still active Cesar Hernandez. He had a Batting Value of 81.6, a Fielding Value of -22.9, and a Baserunning Value of -7.2. His Fielding Value ranks as the 80th worst, above Champ Summers and behind the still active Dominic Smith. His Baserunning Value ranks as the 96th worst, above Jose Hernandez and behind Joe Orsulak. Around Ethier's range is former Red Eugenio Suarez, the hitting side of Shohei Ohtani (and not counting 2022), and the last 3 seasons of Hank Aaron's career. Ethier had no 40+ Player Value seasons, and in fact didn't even have any seasons over 20. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Jayson Werth, OF (2002-2017) Werth was a part of the great late 2000s Phillies teams full of "Hall of Great" players. He'll join the likes of Ryan Howard and potentially Jimmy Rollins in the future, though Werth is probably a borderline "Hall of Great" player at that. He went to one All-Star game in 2008 and finished top 10 in MVP voting in 2009, receiving MVP votes in three other seasons. While he technically entered the big leagues in 2002 at the age of 23, it really took until his age 29 season in 2008 for him to take hold. From there he was a solid player until about 2014. He recorded seven seasons of 3+ WAR, but only had a 29.2 career WAR. His 1,465 hits, 229 homers, 799 RBI, and 117 OPS+ just aren't enough to really argue for induction. I argued that based on Player Value, Werth was the best hitting NL rightfielder in 2010 and the second best NL rightfielder in 2010 overall, behind Jay Bruce. The initial model did not predict Werth as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 2.12%. None of the initial submodels predicted Werth as a Hall of Famer. The updated model also did not predict Werth as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 4.92%. None of the updated submodels predicted Werth as a Hall of Famer. Werth had a total Player Value of 180.6, ranking 207th out of the 4737 position players from 1973-2021. This put him in the top 4.37%, ahead of the contract king Bobby Bonilla and behind Steve Finley. His Batting Value of 106.8 ranks 217th, ahead of Brian McCann and behind Matt Williams. His Fielding Value of 62.7 ranks 473rd, ahead of Marlon Byrd and behind Adam Eaton. He also had a surprising Baserunning Value of 11.1, which ranks 75th, ahead of Gene Richards and behind Bob Dernier. While he only stole 132 bags, he played RF, where the base stealing standards are pretty low. Werth had one 40+ Player Value season in 2009. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: Not a Hall of Famer Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer J.J. Hardy, SS (2005-2017) Hardy went to 2 All-Star games, won a Silver Slugger, and won 3 Gold Gloves. He also had decent power for a shortstop, hitting 20+ homers in 5 different seasons. His 188 career home runs rank 18th all-time among shortstops. His 1,488 career hits and 688 career RBI are much less impressive, though. With an OPS+ of 91, Hardy scores as a below average hitter, but he did have a positive Rfield of 84. Overall his WAR of 28.1 shows that he isn't in the Hall of Fame conversation. Hardy's total Player Value of 128.6 ranks 326th among the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, putting him in the top 6.88%. He sits just behind fellow first year candidate Jacoby Ellsbury, and just above Derrek Lee. His Batting Value of 18.5 ranks just 599th, ahead of Kelly Johnson and behind the still active Luis Arraez. However, his Fielding Value of 112.5 ranks a more admirable 188th, ahead of Brendan Ryan and behind Jerry Hairson Jr. Hardy posted one 40+ Player Value season in 2011. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Mike Napoli, 1B/C (2006-2017) If Napoli were actually a catcher for more of his career, I might be arguing his case a little more and put him in the "maybe" category. With 267 career home runs, he would rank 10th all-time among catchers behind 6 Hall of Famers, Brian McCann (who hasn't yet appeared on a ballot), Lance Parrish (who I think should be in the Hall), and Jorge Posada. His 744 RBI are less impressive and rank just 35th, and his 1,125 hits are even less impressive and rank just 77th. His 650 walks rank 25th. So while he had some pop, he didn't really walk enough or otherwise bat well enough to be a good "three true outcomes" type player. Part of his lacking counting totals are due to his shorter 12 season career, though. His OPS+ is decent at 117, but certainly not enough to merit serious induction. He wasn't a great fielder either, with an Rfield of -17. And again, Napoli wasn't entirely a catcher; he played 678 innings at first base and 539 innings at catcher, switching over in 2013 when he left the Rangers and joined the Red Sox. Among first basemen, his 267 homers would rank just 55th. Napoli's total Player Value of 94.0 ranks just 454th out of the 4737 position players from 1973-2021, only in the top 9.58%. His Batting Value of 73.6 ranks 295th, ahead of the still active Jose Abreu and behind the still active Cody Bellinger. His Fielding Value of 22.7 ranks 1139th, ahead of Brian Hunter (the CF) and behind the still active Luis Rengifo. I thought that Napoli would have had a higher Batting Value and a lower Fielding Value, but that isn't in the case. It was that position change that really did him in, as his Batting Value was solidly positive for most of his catcher years but declined for his first base years. For Fielding Value, he fared better as a first baseman and worse as a catcher. This is in line with the logic of the different offensive and defensive positional expectations for catchers and first basemen. Napoli posted one 40+ Player Value season in 2011. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer Bronson Arroyo, SP (2000-2014, 2017) Ah, Bronson Arroyo. As a kid growing up in Cincinnati in the 2000s and 2010s, Arroyo's famous leg kick was a timeless move to imitate. But alas, sentiment alone isn't enough to merit induction into the Hall of Fame. Although, Arroyo was recently announced as the 2023 inductee for the Reds Hall of Fame (I argued for Aaron Boone, based on Player Value). Arroyo went to one All-Star game in his first year with the Reds in 2006, and won one Gold Glove in 2010 (that Player Value thinks belonged to Dickey). As I showed in my linked Twitter thread about the Reds Hall of Fame candidates, Bronson had some great seasons in 2004, 2006, 2010, 2005, 2009, and 2003. However, his 2007 and 2008 were poor, as were most seasons before and after that main span. WAR thinks more highly of the 2007 and 2008 seasons, as well as 2012 and 2013, than Player Value does. Bronson just needed that 10 year stretch from 2003-2014 to be a bit better, or to extend for longer than 10 years. He ended with 148 wins, a 4.28 career ERA, 2,435 innings pitched, and 1,571 innings pitched, producing a 23.4 career WAR. Unfortunately for my Reds fandom, Arroyo's had a total Player Value of -45.3, ranking a poor 4927 out of the 5248 pitchers from 1973-2021. That puts him in just the top 93.88%. More accurately, he ranks as the 322nd worst, in the bottom 6.12%. He sits ahead of Jonathon Niese and behind Mark Knudson. His Pitching Value of -68.1 ranks as the 150th worst, ahead of Vince Velasquez and behind Kip Wells. His Fielding Value of 48.9 somewhat saves him and ranks 66th, ahead of Rick Mahler and behind Fergie Jenkins. His Batting Value of -26.2 further hurts him though, ranking as the 37th worst, ahead of Fred Norman but behind the still active Alex Wood. It's not like Bronson was bad for his entire career, though, or else he probably wouldn't have been kept around. He had a 20+ Player Value season in 2006, as well as an 18.2 Player Value season in 2004. For most of 2003-2010, Bronson was a solid pitcher, with the odd exceptions of 2007 and 2008. During those 8 years, he put up a 52.2 Player Value, and that shoots up to 67.2 if you ignore 2007 and 2008. What hurt him were his poor early years in Pittsburgh from 2000-2002, and his seasons after 2010. That extra season in 2017 after not playing for two seasons was especially detrimental, as he posted a -24.5 Player Value. Bronson's rise after his poor early career in Pittsburgh is admirable, but sometimes players need to know when it's time to hang up the spikes. My opinion: Not a Hall of Famer Predictive model: N/A, not good enough to make it worthwhile, and model doesn't handle pitchers Player Value: Not a Hall of Famer And that's the ballot! I've broken down every player on the ballot, in terms of my own personal arguments (based on statistics, of course), my predictive model's thoughts, and how the players rate under my Player Value metric. As a final summary, let's quickly hash out each stance's Hall of Fame thoughts: My Opinion:
Hall of Fame Predictive Model:
Player Value:
Player Value is of course a new concept and probably the most controversial of what I've written from above. Maybe you think it's trash. I admit it's not perfect, nor is it where I would like it to be. I still need to measure players' opportunity sets more fairly, rather than just based on plate appearances or innings pitched/in the field. However, I don't think it's completely useless. The 3 best position players during the span used were Barry Bonds, A-Rod, and Mike Schmidt. The 3 best hitters were those same 3 guys. The best fielder was Ozzie Smith, the 2 best baserunners were Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines, and the top 5 pitchers (at pitching) were Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, and Randy Johnson. The best fielding pitcher was Greg Maddux. The best hitting pitcher was Mike Hampton. I don't think anyone will argue too much with those results, and any metric that can reproduce those rankings is one that I think is at least somewhat worthy of using for evaluation. See the 4 attached files below for the Player Value totals for both position players and pitchers careers from 1973-2021, as well as the zipped Player Value totals for position player and pitcher seasons from 1988-2017 (the period where any of the 2023 ballot players played in).
Below is the dataset used to train the initial Hall of Fame model, the dataset of players from the 2023 BBWAA ballot, and the initial model's predictions on those players:
Below is the dataset used to train the updated Hall of Fame model, and the updated model's predictions on the players I used from the 2023 BBWAA ballot:
Thanks everyone as always for parsing through another lengthy post. I look forward to continuing my Player Value research this year and sharing the results after I've refined it to another level of acceptability. Statting Lineup Newsletter Signup Form:
If you'd like to receive email updates for each new post that I make, sign up for the Statting Lineup newsletter using the link below: https://weebly.us18.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=ab653f474b2ced9091eb248b1&id=3a60f3b85f Tomorrow, (Sunday, December 4th), the results from the Hall of Fame's 2023 Contemporary Era Committee ballot will be announced. The ballot consists of 8 players that made their primary impact after 1980, and you can view the players on the ballot here. With this in mind, I thought I would take a break from my Player Value research to see what my Hall of Fame predictive model thought of these candidates, as well as share my own thoughts and provide the current version of Player Value for each candidate's career. I'll go over some details of my Hall of Fame predictive model and its use on the 2022 ballots first; feel free to skip ahead if you'd just like to see the model's and my thoughts on the 2023 Contemporary Era ballot candidates. Hall of Fame Predictive Model Overview I first introduced my model and used it on the 2022 BBWAA ballot here. I entered the model into the 2021 Fall USCLAP competition during my final semester in college, and it ended up finishing in 2nd place. You can view the winners here, and the official report here. The report dives into the nitty gritty of the model, if you are interested in predictive modeling and learning those fine details. As a quick(ish) summary, the model is intended to only be used on position players that finished their careers after 1957, and that did not use steroids or have some other obvious scandal that is the primary deterrent of the Hall of Fame induction. There are some players, such as Barry Bonds and Pete Rose, that are statistically pretty obvious Hall of Fame inductees, but that are left out because telling the model that someone of their caliber isn't a Hall of Famer would confuse it, since it only considers their performance on the field. While I could have keyed in a "character clause" predictor in the model to handle this, I felt it easier to just exclude the players in question. Gold Gloves and other awards are fairly important predictors of whether a player is in the Hall of Fame, and earlier years (i.e. pre-1957) lacked many of these awards, so the model would unfairly judge these earlier players. Since pitchers are judged on an entirely different basis than position players, it didn't make sense to predict them using the same model, so pitchers are excluded as well. Lastly, Negro League players and stats are not incorporated in the model. While these leagues were basically equally competitive as the Major Leagues at the time (as seen by the dominance of early transition players like Jackie Robinson and Roy Campanella), they played far shorter seasons and have less recorded statistics, so these players' stats and model predictions would be flawed when considering their career statistics. The model uses 5 classes of predictors:
Defensive statistical averages per season, such as putouts per 162 games, were considered but not used due to their lack of predictive power. In fact, most of a player's defensive Hall of Fame value is only encompassed in their Gold Gloves. Only their fielding percentage and range factor per game differences from league average ended up being predictive from the career defensive statistics. Generally, the most important predictors for the various submodels (listed below) ended up being a player's All-Star seasons, career runs scored, career singles, and career RBI. In fact, a simple decision tree model can be run to visualize these important predictors: This simple decision tree model predicts anyone with at least 7 All-Star seasons and 1,208 runs scored as a Hall of Famer, an assertion that's right every time based on the dataset. It also predicts anyone with at least 7 All-Star seasons, less than 1,208 runs scored, but more than 1,239 singles as a Hall of Famer, an assertion that's only right about half the time based on the dataset. Anyone with fewer All-Star seasons, runs scored, or singles is predicted as not a Hall of Famer, an assertion that we can see is nearly always correct. This simple decision tree model is not as accurate as my actual Hall of Fame model, but it's surely better than a coin-flipping approach and is very easy to interpret and helps us visualize that All-Star seasons and runs scored are the preeminent predictors of a player's Hall of Fame fate. Again, this was just an illustrative example - this is NOT my actual Hall of Fame model. My initial model was completed just before the results from the 2022 Golden Days Era Committee ballot were announced. You can check out those candidates here. That ballot consisted of 9 players (7 position players and 2 pitchers) and 1 manager. Jim Kaat, Gil Hodges, Tony Oliva, and Minnie Minoso would all go on to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. The initial model performed really well, with an AUC of .9817. AUC stands for Area Under the Curve, and is basically a measure of model accuracy on a scale of 0 to 1. An AUC of 0.5 represents a random guess, coin flip approach. The higher the AUC, the more accurate the model, and my model's AUC was quite high. The simple decision tree model that I displayed above had an AUC of .8105. We technically care about the test AUC, which is the AUC of the model on the test set, meaning the data/players that the model was not trained or developed on. The training set are the players used to essentially teach the model, and then the test set are the players used to evaluate the model's accuracy. My Hall of Fame predictive model is an ensemble model of 4 different submodels:
With 187 players in my dataset overall, I placed 141 in the training set and 46 in the test set. Of the 46 players in the test set, 17 were Hall of Famers, and thus 29 were not. My model correctly predicted 28 of the 29 non-Hall of Famers, asserting that Dave Parker should be a Hall of Famer (personally, I agree!). It correctly predicted 15 of the 17 Hall of Famers, stating that Lou Brock and Alan Trammel were not up to par. The initial model was designed for predicting future players on each year's BBWAA ballot, not the Era Committee ballots. The Hall of Famers and non-Hall of Famers that the model was trained on were players that already had their BBWAA fates decided, and any candidate on an Era Committee ballot would have been rejected by the BBWAA already. Because of this, simply using the same initial dataset that trained the initial model and then predicting the 2022 Golden Days ballot players is a flawed approach that results in none of the players being predicted as Hall of Famers. For any player such as Ken Boyer that was in the training set, the model will predict them as a non-Hall of Famer since that is exactly what the model was told when training on the data. While it could predict players in the test set still fine, all of the Golden Days candidates in the test set were not predicted as Hall of Famers. The proper approach is to remove the 7 position players - Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, Gil Hodges, Roger Maris, Minne Minoso, Tony Oliva, and Maury Wills - from the data and retrain the model on this adjusted dataset. Doing this worsens the predictive accuracy of the model down to .9477. While this is worse than the initial model's AUC of .9817, it is still great overall. Nonetheless, this reduction in accuracy foreshadows how the model thinks of these players. Removing the information that told the model that these players weren't Hall of Famers made it worse. After applying this adjusted version of the model to the players on the 2022 Golden Days ballot, only Dick Allen was predicted as a Hall of Famer. This isn't too shocking, as Allen's bWAR of 58.7 is larger than those of the players' who ended up getting inducted - Hodges at 43.9, Oliva at 43.0, and Minoso at 53.8. Allen is also 23rd all-time in career OPS+ at 156, tied with Frank Thomas and the most of any player that isn't active, used steroids, banned from baseball, or simply archaic (sorry Pete Browning and Dave Orr). His OPS+ is higher than that of both Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. Outside of Jim Kaat - whose 16 Gold Gloves are the 2nd most all-time by a pitcher (and thus isn't handled by the model) and has 287 wins with 2,461 strikeouts - I personally wasn't too sold on any of the players being inducted on last year's era ballot, but Allen would have been at the top of my consideration. As I wrote about previously, when applying this adjusted version of the model to the players on the 2022 BBWAA ballot, only David Ortiz and Todd Helton were predicted as Hall of Famers. Of course, Ortiz was inducted his first year on the ballot with 77.9% of the vote. Helton received 52% of the vote in his 4th year on the ballot, an increase from his 44.9% received in 2021. When applying the Hall of Fame predictive model to the 2023 Contemporary Era ballot, there are 2 approaches we can take:
Albert Belle, OF Years: 1989-2000 Teams: Cleveland Indians, Chicago White Sox, Baltimore Orioles Accolades: 5x All Star, 5x Silver Slugger, 3x RBI Leader, 2x SLG Leader, 1x Runs, Doubles, HR Leader Key Stats: 381 HR, 1,239 RBI, 389 Doubles, 1,539 G, 6,676 PA, .933 OPS, 144 OPS+, 3,300 TB Player Value: 312.15 Total, 244.60 Batting Value, -2.52 Baserunning Value, 70.05 Fielding Value Photo courtesy of WKBN 27 Model Talk: The initial combined ensemble model gives Belle a Hall of Fame probability of .2379, which rounds down to 0 and thus predicts him as not a Hall of Famer. The FDA submodel is particularly unimpressed with Belle, giving him a probability of just .0008. The GLM model isn't too fond of Belle either, giving him a probability of .2145. The model averaged neural network holds a similar stance, with a probability of .1667. However, the SVM model does think Belle should be a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of .5695. While the final combined ensemble model's AUC was .9664, the GLM and FDA submodels were actually more accurate after the training set updates, with AUCs of .9800 and .9811, respectively. The SVM and neural network submodels were still worse, however, with respective AUCs of .9054 and .9391. Given that the most accurate submodel gives Belle the lowest probability, and the least accurate submodel gives Belle the highest probability, we can conclude that the model doesn't like Belle too much. It did give him a higher combined probability than Hall of Famer Alan Trammel (.1039), however. Since the ensemble model isn't actually the best in this case, and since the 4 submodels have varying accuracy, another approach for the final probability is to compute a weighted average based off of the accuracy of each submodel, rather than using a simple average. That is to say, weight the GLM and FDA predictions more heavily since they are more accurate, rather than treating them equally as the SVM and neural network predictions. This alternative approach makes the ensemble model's AUC now slightly higher at .9706. This alternative approach has a pretty minimal effect. Each of the submodel probabilities are the same, but Belle's new final ensemble probability is now slightly lower at .2321. Again, this is due to the more accurate submodels giving him lower probabilities of being a Hall of Famer. What if we update the training set with the 2022 Hall of Fame results and then retrain the model? The resulting ensemble model is worse, with a lower AUC of .9286. The updated FDA submodel has an AUC of .8948, the updated GLM submodel has an AUC of .9206, the updated SVM submodel has an AUC of .9246, and the updated neural network submodel has an AUC of .9206. So, the FDA and GLM submodels got worse, as did the neural network submodel and the ensemble model overall, but the SVM submodel actually became more accurate with the 2022 Hall of Fame results. This updated simple average ensemble model gives Belle a probability of .2430, slightly higher than without the updates but still not enough to be predicted as a Hall of Famer. The FDA submodel probability is .0022, the GLM submodel probability is .2115, the SVM submodel probability is .4680, and the neural network submodel probability is .2904. Lastly, if we use the weighted average ensemble model with the training dataset that includes the 2022 Hall of Fame results, Belle's new ensemble probability is slightly higher at .2450. Still not high enough to be predicted as a Hall of Famer. In this case, the now less accurate FDA submodel is weighted less while the now more accurate SVM model is weighted more. The FDA submodel liked Belle the least, and the SVM submodel liked him the most, so the increase here makes sense. Interestingly enough, in this case the weighted average ensemble model is just as accurate as the simple average ensemble model, as both had an AUC of .9286. Predictive Model Verdict: Not a Hall of Famer My Thoughts: Maybe you don't think Belle's career totals are that impressive, and maybe you're wondering why I included his career games played and career plate appearances under his "Key Stats". The answer is context. Belle played in just 12 seasons, including his first 2 seasons when he played in just 71 games combined. So out of 10 real full seasons, he was an All-Star half of the time and a Silver Slugger half of the time. He also finished in the top 10 in MVP voting for 5 of those seasons, and in my opinion was robbed of the 1995 MVP by Mo Vaughn, who he bested in basically every offensive category (you can see for yourself here). He hit 30+ HR in 8 of those seasons, and hit 28 and 23 in the other two. He had 100+ RBI in 9 of those seasons, and recorded 95 in the other one. He hit 30+ doubles in 9 of those seasons, and hit 23 in the other one. Consistently 30 doubles, 30 homers, and 100 RBI per season? I'll take that. In terms of the 255 players used in my predictive model dataset, Belle ranks 6th in doubles per 162-game season with 40.9, behind 4 Hall of Famers (Medwick, Greenberg, Hafey, Herman) and Nomar Garciaparra. He ranks 7th in RBI per 162-game season with 130.4, behind 6 Hall of Famers (Gehrig, Greenberg, DiMaggio, Ruth, Foxx, Simmons). He ranks 3rd in HR per 162-game season with 40.1, behind 2 Hall of Famers (Ruth and Kiner). Looking at the LF JAWS leaderboard, he ranks 10th in MVP shares behind Barry Bonds, Pete Rose, Manny Ramirez, and 6 Hall of Famers. I will note that WAR doesn't like Belle's peak quite as much, as his 7 year peak WAR of 36.0 ranks just 29th all-time among left fielders (but ahead of him are 16 HoFers, Rose, and Bonds). That is all to say that Belle had a tremendous peak. But it wasn't just that he was great for a decade and then slowly panned out; his career was abruptly cut short at the age 33 due to a hip injury. I can't emphasize this enough, as I feel it is frequently overlooked when discussing Belle's case. Kirby Puckett and Roy Campanella had career-ending injuries at 35 and are in the Hall of Fame. Ralph Kiner had a career-ending injury at 32 and is in the Hall of Fame. Heck, even Ross Youngs was done by 29 due to illness and is somehow in the Hall of Fame. So, why not Belle? When a player's great career is suddenly cut short, I prefer to give him the benefit of the doubt. Belle's total Player Value of 312.15, under the current version, ranks 66th out of the 4,737 position players since 1974, which puts him in the top 1.4%. His Batting Value of 244.60 ranks him 59th, which is the top 1.25%. Clearly Player Value thinks Belle's peak was sufficiently great! My Opinion: Put Him In Don Mattingly, 1B Years: 1982-1995 Teams: New York Yankees Accolades: 9x Gold Glove, 6x All Star, 1x MVP, 3x Silver Slugger, 3x Double Leader, 2x Hit Leader Key Stats: 2,153 H, .307 BA, 442 Doubles, 222 HR, 1,099 RBI, 7,722 PA, 1,785 G Player Value: 205.42 Total, 66.50 Batting Value, -0.33 Baserunning Value, 139.25 Fielding Value Photo courtesy of NBC Sports. Model Talk: The initial ensemble model gives Mattingly a combined probability of .2787, rounding down to a non Hall of Famer prediction. The FDA model has him at just .0331, while the GLM, SVM, and neural network models are slightly more positive, giving him respective probabilities of .3066, .4377, and .3375. If we use the approach where we weight the submodels based off of their accuracy, Mattingly's new ensemble probability becomes .2749, even worse than before. Again, the GLM and FDA submodels were the most accurate (highest AUCs) and they gave Mattingly the lowest Hall of Fame probabilities. If we use the model that was retrained on the training data that includes the 2022 Hall of Fame voting results, the simple average ensemble model gives Mattingly a notably higher probability of .4351, but this is still too low to be predicted as a Hall of Famer. The FDA submodel gives him a probability of just .0076, the GLM submodel gives him a probability of .4479, the SVM submodel gives him a high porbability of .7002, and the neural network submodel gives him a solid probability of .5849. If not for the FDA submodel's tiny probability (which now has the lowest AUC and is thus the least accurate after the 2022 updates), then Mattingly might have been predicted as a Hall of Famer by the simple average ensemble model. Lastly, if we use the weighted average ensemble model with the training dataset that includes the 2022 Hall of Fame results, Mattingly's new ensemble probability is slightly higher at .4384. Still not high enough to be predicted as a Hall of Famer. In this case, the now less accurate FDA submodel is weighted less while the now more accurate SVM model is weighted more. The FDA submodel liked Mattingly the least, and the SVM submodel liked him the most, so the increase here makes sense. Predictive Model Verdict: Not a Hall of Famer My Thoughts: Mattingly also retired early at age 34, but due to a more gradual deterioration via back injuries rather than due to a sudden career-ending injury. His 9 Gold Gloves are the 2nd most by a first baseman in history, behind only Keith Hernandez (who I also think should be inducted and been included on this ballot). Besides these two, every other players with at least 9 Gold Gloves is in the Hall or is still having their fate decided. I think the many Gold Gloves are what drives Mattingly's case for me, while still not being bad offensively. Despite a shorter career he still amassed at least 2,000 hits and 1,000 RBI, won a batting title, led the league in OPS in 1986 when he finished 2nd in MVP voting, and led the league in doubles 3 times. Only 9 players that spent at least 50% of their time at first had a higher career batting average than Mattingly's .307 with as many plate appearances. Of those 9, 7 are in the Hall of Fame, Todd Helton is still awaiting his fate (I think he should be in), and the last is Stuffy McGinnis, whose .307 career batting average is contextually not as impressive given that he played in an earlier era where higher batting averages were more common. Mattingly may not have been a powerhouse offensively, and WAR may disagree with his defensive ability, but he won 9 Gold Gloves nonetheless and like Dale Murphy below is another player that can bolster the lackluster Hall of Fame membership of players from the '80s. Mattingly's total Player Value of 205.42, under the current version, ranks 155th out of the 4,737 position players since 1974, which puts him in the top 3.27%. At least under the current iteration, this suggests that Don is more 'Hall of Great' territory. His Fielding Value of 139.25 ranks him 127th, which is the top 2.68%. My Opinion: Put Him In Fred McGriff, 1B Years: 1986-2004 Teams: Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Devil Rays, San Diego Padres, Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers Accolades: 5x All Star, 3x Silver Slugger, 2x HR Leader Key Stats: 493 HR, 2,490 H, 1,550 RBI, 1,305 walks, 1,349 R Player Value: 247.50 Total, 180.52 Batting Value, -0.57 Baserunning Value, 67.55 Fielding Value Photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated. Model Talk: The initial ensemble model gives McGriff a solid probability of .6322, rounding up to a Hall of Fame prediction. The FDA submodel loves McGriff, giving him a .9019 probability. The GLM submodel thinks otherwise, giving him just a .3492 probability. The SVM and neural network submodels also support his candidacy with probabilities of .5418 and .7357, respectively. If we use the approach where we weight the submodels based off of their accuracy, McGriff's new ensemble probability becomes .6330, slightly higher than before. The FDA submodel was the most accurate (highest AUC) and it gave McGriff the highest Hall of Fame probability, thus the increase. If we use the model that was retrained on the training data that includes the 2022 Hall of Fame voting results, the simple average ensemble model gives McGriff a notably lower probability of .3710, which is now low enough to not be predicted as a Hall of Famer. The FDA submodel gives him a much lower probability of just .0694, the GLM submodel gives him a probability of .4100, the SVM submodel gives him a probability of .5260, and the neural network submodel gives him a probability of .4785. The FDA submodel went from loving McGriff to hating him, and became much less accurate in the process. Lastly, if we use the weighted average ensemble model with the training dataset that includes the 2022 Hall of Fame results, McGriff's new ensemble probability is slightly higher at .3733. Still not high enough to be predicted as a Hall of Famer. In this case, the now less accurate FDA submodel is weighted less while the now more accurate SVM model is weighted more. The FDA submodel liked McGriff the least, and the SVM submodel liked him the most, so the increase here makes sense. Predictive Model Verdict: Hall of Famer, ignoring last year's results My Thoughts: McGriff may not have won an MVP, but he finished in the top 10 in voting 6 times. The only first basemen with more top 10 MVP finishes are 5 HoFers (Gehrig, Thomas, Murray, Killebrew, Ortiz), 2 future HoFers (Pujols, Cabrera) and Freddie Freeman. Tied with McGriff with 6 top 10 MVP finishes are 3 HoFers (Mize, Terry, Bagwell), 2 active players that I think are likely future HoFers (Votto, Goldschmidt), Ryan Howard, and Andres Gallaraga. McGriff's 493 home runs are tied with Lou Gehrig for the 12th most by a first basemen and the 29th most across all positions. The 11 first basemen with more homers are 7 Hall of Famers, 2 future Hall of Famers (Pujols, Cabrera) and 2 notable steroid users (McGwire, Palmeiro). Of the 28 players with more homers, every single one is either in the Hall of Fame, used steroids, still active, or not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame. Fred McGriff has the most home runs of any "clean" player that has been thus far rejected for the Hall of Fame. I personally think reaching 500+ home runs should automatically qualify a player for the Hall, granted that they didn't use steroids, and historical voting seems to reflect this rule. The fact that McGriff has been excluded due to 7 homers is absurd, especially when we consider the 1994 strike-shortened season. In 1994 the Braves (like all other MLB teams) played a shortened schedule of 114 games, of which McGriff played in 113. In those 113 games, McGriff hit 34 home runs, good for a pace of about .3 homers per game. Across a normal full 162 game season, that's 48.6 homers. McGriff played in 113 out of 114, or 99.12% of his team's games. That brings the hypothetical full season total down to 48.17, which we'll round down to 48. That's 14 more HR than his actual 34 in 1994. With this short hand math, we estimate McGriff would have had 507 career home runs, if not for the 1994 strike. McGriff's 1,550 RBI rank 47th most all-time. You can take a look at this list and see that all of the players ahead of him are either in the Hall, used steroids, or haven't been on a ballot yet (Beltre and Beltran). He ranks 15th in RBI among first basemen, with the usual HoF/steroid/not yet eligible suspects ahead of him. His 2,490 career hits also rank 15th among first basemen. He hit 30+ home runs in 10 seasons, a feat achieved by just 21 players. Besides Carlos Delgado, every other player that has done this is either in the Hall, will be in the Hall, or used steroids. The advanced metrics don't like McGriff as much. His WAR of 52.6 ranks 30th all-time among first basemen, below the Hall of Fame positional average of 65.5 (which would rank 14th). His JAWS of 44.3 ranks 31st all-time among his position, also below HoF average. But should the clean guy with the most HR and RBI not in the Hall be excluded, especially if he would have reached the essentially automatic qualifier of 500 HR if not for a strike? I think not. McGriff's total Player Value of 247.50, under the current version, ranks 119th out of the 4,737 position players since 1974, which puts him in the top 2.5%. His Batting Value of 180.52 ranks him 94th, which is the top 1.98%. My Opinion: Put Him In! Dale Murphy, OF Years: 1976-1993 Teams: Atlanta Braves, Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies Accolades: 7x All Star, 2x MVP, 5x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger, 2x HR and RBI Leader Key Stats: 398 HR, 2,111 H, 1,266 RBI, 350 doubles Player Value: 166.45 Total, 220.28 Batting Value, 1.48 Baserunning Value, -55.31 Fielding Value Photo courtesy of Baseball Egg. Model Talk: The initial ensemble model gives Murphy a probability of .5079, barely rounding up to a Hall of Fame prediction. The FDA submodel isn't too high on Murphy, giving him a probability of .2701. The GLM submodel is slightly more favorable at a .3986 probability. The SVM submodel is a virtual toss-up with a .4943 probability. The neural network submodel is a big fan of Murphy, giving him a .8687 probability. If we use the approach where we weight the submodels based off of their accuracy, Murphy's new ensemble probability becomes .5043, slightly lower than before. The SVM and neural network submodels were the least accurate (lowest AUCs) and they gave Murphy the highest Hall of Fame probabilities, thus the decrease. However, these submodels were still accurate enough and still gave Murphy high enough probabilities to still merit a Hall of Fame prediction overall. If we use the model that was retrained on the training data that includes the 2022 Hall of Fame voting results, the simple average ensemble model gives Murphy a slightly higher probability of .5125, which is high enough to be predicted as a Hall of Famer. The FDA submodel gives him a probability of .1462, the GLM submodel gives him a probability of .5207, the SVM submodel gives him a high probability of .7555, and the neural network submodel gives him a solid probability of .6274. Lastly, if we use the weighted average ensemble model with the training dataset that includes the 2022 Hall of Fame results, Murphy's new ensemble probability is slightly higher at .5153. Still not high enough to be predicted as a Hall of Famer. In this case, the now less accurate FDA submodel is weighted less while the now more accurate SVM model is weighted more. The FDA submodel liked Murphy the least, and the SVM submodel liked him the most, so the increase here makes sense. Predictive Model Verdict: Hall of Famer, regardless of last year's results My Thoughts: Murphy has the accolades worthy of a Hall of Famer, but his cumulative career totals are somewhat lacking. We can't make any type of career hits, homers, or RBI arguments for Murphy like we can with McGriff. But he did win 2 MVPs, which only 5 center fielders have done in history. The other 4 are future HoFer Mike Trout and 3 HoFers (Mantle, Dimaggio, Mays). Not a bad crowd. WAR does disagree with his winning of these MVPs, however, favoring Gary Carter instead in 1982 and John Denny or Dickie Thon in 1983. There have been a total of 32 players that have won multiple MVPs in history, and just 11 have won at least 3 with only Barry Bonds winning more than 3. Of the 31 other dudes, 23 are in the Hall of Fame, 3 used steroids (Bonds, A-Rod, Juan Gonzalez), and 3 are future Hall of Famers (Pujols, Cabrera, Trout). The remaining 2 are Bryce Harper - who is still active and likely a future Hall of Famer as well - and Roger Maris. Murphy has nearly 800 more hits, 100 more HR, and 400 more RBI than Maris, as well as 4 more Gold Gloves. Their cases are very similar, but Murphy was able to stay around a few seasons longer than Maris was, and was better defensively (at least in terms of awards; Rfield has Murphy at -34 and Maris at 45). Amongst center fielders, Murhpy's 398 home runs actually track pretty well, ranking him 8th. Ahead of him are 5 HoFers (Mays, Griffery Jr., Mantle, Dawson, Snider) and 2 players whose Hall of Fame fates have yet to be truly decided in Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran. In general, the 1980s are underrepresented in Cooperstown. Greats like Darryl Strawberry, Dave Stewart, Keith Hernandez, Dwight Gooden, and Dave Stieb have all been excluded. Sports Reference's Adam Darowski shared a split of Hall of Famers by their debut year on Twitter. The 1980s have just 16, compared to 22 from each of the '50s and '60s, and a whopping 46 from the '20s. Murphy was another one of the '80s greats, and inducting him could help begin righting this wrong. Murphy's total Player Value of 166.45, under the current version, ranks 212th out of the 4,737 position players since 1974, which puts him in the top 4.48%, not quite Hall of Fame caliber. His Batting Value of 220.28 ranks him 66th, however, which is the top 1.39%. I certainly think that the offensive side of Player Value is currently more accurate than the defensive side. My Opinion: Put Him In So the model says to put 1 to 2 guys in, and I'd put all 4 in given the chance. What can I say, I'm a "big Hall" guy. The following players weren't predicted by the model since they're pitchers or used steroids, but here are my thoughts on their Hall of Fame cases: Curt Schilling In my hypothetical 2022 ballot, I highly emphasized that I thought Schilling should be in Cooperstown. Straight from that earlier post: "Historically, certain career marks have been guarantees for induction. One such milestone is 3,000 strikeouts, which only 19 pitchers have done in history. Of these, 2 are active players (Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander), 1 is not eligible for the ballot yet (C.C. Sabathia), and 1 used steroids (Roger Clemens). Of the remaining 15 pitchers with 3,000 or more strikeouts, 14 of them are in the Hall of Fame and the other is Curt Schilling. Schilling's 3,116 career K's are good for 15th all-time, more than Hall of Famer John Smoltz's career total in about 200 less innings, and just 1 less than Hall of Famer Bob Gibson's career total in about 600 less innings. Schilling's career WAR of 79.5 is 26th best among starting pitchers and the most of any starting pitcher not in the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Clemens. Schilling also rocks an impressive 6 All-Star game seasons, 3 World Series, and a World Series MVP. While he never won a Cy Young award, he did come in 2nd place three times and in 4th place once. People like to rag on Schilling's character, which is admittedly deplorable, but... [t]he Hall contains the best baseball players in history, and Curt Schilling is clearly one of them and therefore should be inducted." Max Sherzer and Justin Verlander have since passed Schilling in K's to now rank him 17th all-time, but the point still stands. Schilling has no connection to steroids and absolutely should be inducted as one of the game's great pitchers, regardless of how objectively awful of a person he is. The current version of Player Value has Schilling at 188.64, ranking him 29th among the 6,077 pitchers since 1974. His Pitching Value of 237.97 ranks 14th. Barry Bonds My hypothetical 2022 ballot also included Bonds. I'm not going to hash out his case all over, but feel free to click the link above under Schilling to review what I previously stated. The short of it is that I'm generally against steroid users in the Hall of Fame, but make an exception for Bonds who was clearly a Hall of Famer prior to his steroid use and was statistically significantly better than his steroid counterparts. That was my stance for his final year on the BBWAA ballot, which included 394 voters. The 2023 Contemporary Era Committee will consist of just 16 voters. I still think Bonds ought to be in, but I'd rather the first undeniable steroid user that is inducted to be voted in by more people via the BBWAA ballot. Plus, Bonds just had his chance last year on the BBWAA ballot; other worthy and steroid-free candidates on the ballot have had to wait longer for their next chance at the Hall. The current version of Player Value has Bonds at 1,201.08, easily the most of any player since 1974. His Batting Value of 1,015.49 also ranks 1st, while his Fielding Value of 166.82 ranks 77th. Roger Clemens My stance on Clemens is basically exactly what I stated for Bonds above. Statistically, obviously a Hall of Famer, but his steroid use calls him slightly into question. Nontheless, I would have put him on my BBWAA ballot last year. However, I think the larger BBWAA ballot should sort out the steroid users before we let just 16 (or really, only 12) people determine if they should be inducted. The current version of Player Value has Clemens at 555.94, ranking him 2nd among the 6,077 pitchers since 1974. His Pitching Value of 518.04 ranks 1st. Rafael Palmeiro Palmeiro is in the same boat for me as Bonds and Clemens, he just wasn't on the 2022 BBWAA ballot. He is clearly a Hall of Famer when you ignore the steroids, clinching the "automatic" qualifiers of both 500+ home runs and 3000+ hits. Given his steroid use, there are more preferable guys to use for the ballot's limited number of spots. The current version of Player Value has Palmeiro at 329.68, ranking him 61st among players since 1974. His Batting Value of 198.59 ranks 76th. I emphasized the current version of Player Value because it is far from complete, but still, it's not that bad or wrong as is. Most Batting Value since 1974? Barry Bonds. Most Baserunning Value since 1974? Rickey Henderson. Most Fielding Value since 1974? Ozzie Smith. Most Fielding Value among pitchers since 1974? Greg Maddux. Most Pitching Value since 1974? Roger Clemens. My Hypothetical 2023 Contemporary Era Ballot:
The actual 16-person committee members that will vote for this ballot was announced recently, and includes former Braves Hall of Famers Greg Maddux and Chipper Jones, both of whom were teammates with Fred McGriff from 1993 to 1997. Frank Thomas spent 2 years with Alberte Belle on the Chicago White Sox in 1997 and 1998. Lou Whitaker would have been a great candidate to benefit from the committee's makeup given the inclusion of TIgers teammates Jack Morris and Alan Trammel, but alas. Lee Smith and Ryne Sandberg (and Greg Maddux) played some with Rafael Palmeiro on the Cubs in the late '80s before he really burst onto the scene. Needless to say, I think the committee's makeup will certainly benefit McGriff the most. As usual, I'll end with a file dump - My USCLAP paper on my Hall of Fame predictive model:
A PowerPoint presentation I gave on the model:
Dataset of players used:
Datasets for 2022 Golden Days, 2022 BBWAA, and 2023 Contemporary Era ballots:
R files for the initial model and 2022 BBWAA predictions, 2022 Golden Days predictions, and 2023 Contemporary Era predictions:
Adjusted datasets that you'll need to run the 2022 and 2023 era ballot R files above:
And that should be everything you need to dig deeper into or replicate the results. Thank you all for reading! Looking forward to sharing more Player Value findings soon, as well as my model's predictions for the upcoming 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. Statting Lineup Newsletter Signup Form:
If you'd like to receive email updates for each new post that I make, sign up for the Statting Lineup newsletter using the link below: https://weebly.us18.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=ab653f474b2ced9091eb248b1&id=3a60f3b85f The official BBWAA election results for the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot will be announced on January 25th. While members of the BBWAA have the privilege to cast votes for who they think belong in Cooperstown, many baseball fans are left to only hypothetically share who they would vote for if given the chance. Below I share which players I would vote for, which players I wouldn't vote for (at least this year), and why. INCLUDED ON MY BALLOT THIS YEAR: 1. Curt Schilling - SP Curt Schilling is my first 'automatic' selection. The official rules of election don't technically permit such automatic elections (baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/rules/bbwaa-rules-for-election) but I personally think that is a bunch of baloney. Historically, certain career marks have been guarantees for induction. One such milestone is 3,000 strikeouts, which only 19 pitchers have done in history. Of these, 2 are active players (Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander), 1 is not eligible for the ballot yet (C.C. Sabathia), and 1 used steroids (Roger Clemens). Of the remaining 15 pitchers with 3,000 or more strikeouts, 14 of them are in the Hall of Fame and the other is Curt Schilling. Schilling's 3,116 career K's are good for 15th all-time, more than Hall of Famer John Smoltz's career total in about 200 less innings, and just 1 less than Hall of Famer Bob Gibson's career total in about 600 less innings. Schilling's career WAR of 79.5 is 26th best among starting pitchers and the most of any starting pitcher not in the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Clemens. Schilling also rocks an impressive 6 All-Star game seasons, 3 World Series, and a World Series MVP. While he never won a Cy Young award, he did come in 2nd place three times and in 4th place once. People like to rag on Schilling's character, which is admittedly deplorable, but other despicable men that were good at baseball such as Ty Cobb are already enshrined. The Hall contains the best baseball players in history, and Curt Schilling is clearly one of them and therefore should be inducted. 2. David Ortiz - DH/1B David Ortiz is my second automatic selection due to reaching the impressive feat of over 500 career home runs. 28 different players in history have hit 500 or more homers, 2 of which are still active (Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera). 7 of these players have obvious connections to steroid use, namely Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield. Of the remaining 19 players with 500 or more career home runs, 18 are in the Hall of Fame and the other is David Ortiz. While Ortiz allegedly tested positive in 2003 according to the New York Times, this was before any of his All-Star seasons and he consistently tested negative each season for the remainder of his career. Ortiz's 541 career home runs are good for 17th all-time, and his 1,768 RBI are good for 23rd all-time. All players with more career RBI either used steroids, are active players, or are in the Hall of Fame. Though he retired at age 40, Ortiz likely could have padded his stats even more by playing a few more seasons, as he arguably had the greatest final season by a player ever. In his final year he smashed a whopping 38 home runs while batting .315 and led the league in doubles (48), RBI (127), slugging (.620), and OPS (1.021) in route to finishing 6th in MVP voting and securing his 10th All-Star game and 7th Silver Slugger award. Just like Schilling, Ortiz won 3 World Series and a World Series MVP award. He never won a regular season MVP, but finished in the top 5 in voting 5 times. Clearly, Ortiz is worthy of inclusion into the Hall of Fame. 3. Omar Vizquel - SS Another one of my automatic qualifiers is a player obtaining 3,000 career hits, a feat accomplished by just 32 people in history. Of those, 1 player is active (Albert Pujols), 2 players used steroids (Alex Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro), 1 player is banned for gambling (Pete Rose), and 2 players are not yet eligible for the ballot (Adrian Beltre and Ichiro Suzuki). The remaining 26 players are all in the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for Vizquel, he came up just short of the 3,000 hit mark. His 2,877 career hits are good for the 44th most all-time and if not inducted Vizquel would have the most career hits of any non-steroid-using player not in the Hall of Fame. Among shortstops, Vizquel has the 6th most hits all-time and everyone ahead of him either used steroids or is in the Hall of Fame. While his 3 All-Star game appearances are relatively unimpressive by Cooperstown standards, his 11 Gold Glove awards are the 2nd most all-time by a shortstop, only behind Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith's 13 Gold Gloves. Across all positions, Vizquel is tied for the 7th most Gold Gloves in history with first basemen Keith Hernandez. Furthermore, Vizquel ranks 9th all-time in terms of career defensive WAR and his career fielding percentage at shortstop (.985) is well above the average shortstop fielding percentage throughout his career (.973). This combination of impressive career hit totals and winning of many Gold Gloves makes Vizquel worthy of the Hall in my eyes. Some troubling issues have arose recently regarding Vizquel's personal character, but again I believe the Hall should include the best baseball players, not the nicest people. 4. Andruw Jones - CF Andruw Jones' case for Cooperstown is very similar to that of Vizquel's. As I mentioned under Ortiz, reaching 500 career home runs makes a player a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame unless they used steroids, which Jones never did. However, Jones did come up short of the 500 mark with 434 homers, good for tied for 48th all-time. Jones was also an elite defender though, winning 10 Gold Glove awards, which ties him for 3rd most all-time by an outfielder. In terms of career defensive WAR, Jones is 22nd all-time. Among center fielders, Jones has the most career defensive WAR and the 6th most career home runs. This combination of elite career home run hitting and Gold Glove winning makes Jones worthy of the Hall in my opinion. Jones also has a respectable 5 All-Star appearances and one second place MVP finish in 2005. 5. Jeff Kent - 2B Kent is one of just 15 second basemen in history to win an MVP award, 11 of which are Hall of Famers and 2 of which are active or not yet eligible for the ballot. Kent's 377 career home runs are the most of any second basemen in history. His 1,518 career RBI are the 3rd most all-time among second basemen, with both players ahead of him in the Hall. His 560 career doubles and .500 career slugging percentage are both 5th most among second basemen. Clearly, Kent is one of the best offensive second basemen all-time and he was still able to be an average fielder. His career defensive WAR is just below average at -0.1 and his career fielding percentage at second base of 0.980 is just below the league average second base fielding percentage during his career of 0.982. Kent also won 4 Silver Slugger awards in his career and appeared in 5 All-Star games. It is my belief that elite offensive skills and average defensive skills throughout the course of a career a Hall of Famer makes. 6. Scott Rolen - 3B Rolen boasts an impressive 7 All-Star game appearances and 8 Gold Gloves. Only 3 third basemen have more Gold Gloves in their careers, 1 of which is active (Nolan Arenado) and the other 2 of which are in the Hall of Fame (Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt). Rolen's career WAR is 10th most all-time among third basemen, with every player ahead of him in the Hall of Fame besides Adrian Beltre, who is not yet eligible for the ballot. He has the 6th most career defensive WAR among third basemen, and the 45th most among all positions. He is tied for the 25th most career total zone runs all-time. Most of Rolen's excellence was on defense, but he still was an impressive offensive player, obtaining 2,077 hits in his career and 316 home runs to go with a .281 career batting average. He came 4th in MVP voting in 2004, won a World Series in 2006, won a Silver Slugger in 2002, and was the 1997 Rookie of the Year. It is my belief that elite defensive skills and above average offensive skills throughout the course of a career a Hall of Famer makes. 7. Billy Wagner - CP Wagner has the 6th most career reliever-adjusted JAWS all-time, and his 422 career saves are also good for the 6th most all-time. 3 of the players ahead of him are in the Hall (Rivera, Hoffman, Smith) and one is not yet eligible for the ballot (K-Rod). Wagner's 7 All-Star appearances are tied for the 5th most all-time among relief pitchers, and all relievers with 7 or more All-Star appearances are either in the Hall of Fame, not yet eligible for the ballot, still playing in the MLB, or named Billy Wagner. His 2.31 career ERA is the 5th most all-time among relievers. Wagner came 4th in Cy Young voting in 1999, the year that he won the Rolaids Relief Man award. Billy Wagner is one of the greatest closing pitchers in history and deserves a spot in Cooperstown. 8. Todd Helton - 1B Two recent inductions into the Hall of Fame were Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker. For his career, Edgar batted .312, had an on-base percentage of 0.418, a slugging percentage of 0.515, had 2,247 hits, scored 1,219 runs, had 1,261 RBI, and hit 309 home runs. Similarly, Walker batted .313, had an on-base percentage of 0.400, a slugging percentage of 0.565, had 2,160 hits, scored 1,355 runs, had 1,311 RBI, and hit 383 home runs. In Todd Helton's career, he batted 0.316, had an on-base percentage of 0.414, a slugging percentage of 0.539, had 2,519 hits, scored 1,401 runs, had 1,406 RBI, and hit 369 home runs. The similarity between these 3 players is striking, and the inclusion of 2 of them in Cooperstown demands the inclusion of the third. Helton's career on-base percentage is tied for the 30th most all-time (8th most among first basemen) and among the highest during the modern era of baseball. He has the 17th most career WAR among first basemen, with every player ahead of him either being a Hall of Famer, steroid user, or active player. Todd Helton appeared in 5 All-Star games, won 4 Silver Slugger awards (tied with Albert Pujols and Paul Goldschmidt for the most by a first basemen), won 3 Gold Glove awards, won the batting title in 2000, and also led the league in doubles with 59 in 2000 (tied for the 7th most in a single season in history and the most in a single season by a player with a colored profile picture on Baseball Reference). Basically, he hit the most doubles in a season in a long time. Helton also has the 20th most career doubles all-time, and only Luis Gonzalez has more doubles of players not active, not yet eligible for the ballot, not in the Hall of Fame, not a steroid-user, or not banned due to gambling. A Hall with Martinez and Walker included but Helton not makes no sense, so Helton belongs in Cooperstown as well. 9. Barry Bonds - LF Now things get tricky! Statistically speaking, Barry Bonds is one of the greatest baseball players of all-time and therefore his inclusion in the Hall of Fame would seem obvious. His 762 career home-runs are the most all-time (and above the 500 home run Hall of Fame clinch mark), and his 73 home runs in 2001 are the most in a single season all-time. His 2,935 career hits are woefully close to the 3,000 hit Hall of Fame clinch mark and good for the 38th most all-time. Bonds' 2,558 career walks are the most all-time, and when combined with his hits and his times hit by pitch, Bonds reached base a total of 5,599 times, 2nd all-time behind only Pete Rose (who reached based 5,929 times). His .444 career on-base percentage ranks him 7th all-time, his 1,996 career RBI rank him 6th all-time, and his 2,227 career runs scored rank him 3rd all-time. In addition to his raw power and ability to get on base, Bonds was also a superb base stealer (especially early in his career), and his 514 career stolen bases place him 34th all-time. Then there's his stockpile of awards, which include a whopping 7 MVP awards (the most of any player), 14 All-Star appearances, 12 Silver Sluggers (the most of any player), and 8 Gold Glove awards. In complete isolation, and with total ignorance of Bonds' steroid use, he is without question worthy of the Hall of Fame. However, his use of steroids does put a heavy and important caveat on his Cooperstown consideration. Although he hit more homers than anyone in MLB history, Bonds only ever hit more than 50 home runs once, when he hit 73 in 2001. His second most in a season was 49 in the year prior. His third most was 46, which he accomplished in 1993 and in 2002. His fourth most was 45, which he did in 2003 and 2004. So, from 1986 to 1999 (when Bonds was ages 21 to 34), the most homers Bonds hit in a season was 46, and he only hit 40 or more homers two other times during that span. However, from 2000 to 2004 (when Bonds was ages 35 to 39), he hit just about his previous single season maximum every single year. He averaged 31.8 homers from 1986 to 1999, but averaged 51.6 homers from 2000 to 2004. The most homers Hank Aaron ever hit in a season was 47, and he had several other seasons throughout his career where he hit 44 or 45 homers. The most homers Babe Ruth ever hit in a season was 60, and he had other seasons were he hit 54 (twice) and 59 homers. The massive range from Bonds best home run hitting season and his second-best home run hitting season is absurd and not seen by his 700 home run club counterparts, nor is the sudden increase in home run productivity at an older age. This increase in homers was not a coincidence. Barry Bonds used steroids, whether you choose to believe it or not. He may have never tested positive (since tests weren't performed back then), but the statistical and visual/physical evidence (just look at that size change!) is staggering. Steroids give players extra strength, allowing players to stay healthy into old age as well as give them more power and speed off their bats. This results in more home runs, more RBI, and more fear from pitchers. This fear from pitchers leads them to walk these powerful batters more often, both intentionally and "unintentionally". People love to lament about Bonds' 2004 season where he boasted an absurd .609 on-base percentage, the most in a season by any player ever. However, during that season Bonds was walked 232 times (the most in a single-season ever), 120 of which were intentional walks (again, the most in a single-season ever, and 52 more than the second most ever!) The impressiveness of Bonds' 2004 OBP is vastly overstated, as it was largely due to pitchers fearing his slugging power, which was established by his use of steroids, and therefore intentionally walking him. If pitchers would have just actually pitched to Bonds that year, his on-base percentage would have surely been much lower, albeit he also would have hit more home runs. Bonds holds the top 3 places in most single-season intentional walks (all when he was age 37+), and 7 of the top 10 places. He also holds the top 3 places in most single-season walks, and 4 of the top 10 places. I don't view Bonds' old age on-base prowess as impressive, I see it as pitchers being passive and not throwing to a player that synthetically established such power dominance by using steroids. I think Bonds' use of steroids is shameful, along with every other player's use of steroids. However, I do believe that he still belongs in the Hall of Fame. Even with steroids I don't think Bonds is the greatest player ever, but his use of steroids allowed him to be put in the conversation. I don't believe Bonds' use of steroids propelled him from a non-Hall of Fame player to a Hall of Fame player and one of the best ever, but rather that they simply propelled him from a Hall of Fame player to one of the best ever. Many players used steroids during his time, and Bonds' career accomplishments are notably superior to that of Jose Canseco, Jason Giambi, etc. It is widely believed that Bonds first started using steroids in the 1999 season. Taking all his stats and awards from 1986 to 1998, Bonds would have 411 home runs, 445 stolen bases, 1,364 runs scored, 1,216 RBI, 1,917 hits, 1,357 walks, a .290 batting average, a .411 on-base percentage, a .556 slugging percentage, 3 MVP awards, 8 All-Star appearances, 8 Gold Gloves, and 7 Silver Sluggers. These show how great Bonds was before he even used steroids and how he was already well on his way to Cooperstown. I encourage you all to take a look at this article that shows how Bonds' career would have likely turned out had he not used steroids starting in 1999 (https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32806209/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-far-less-great-subtract-ped-factor). It notably predicts only 551 career home runs for Bonds. Since Bonds was basically already Hall of Fame worthy before he used steroids, and since he was statistically so much better than many of his fellow steroid users, I believe that Bonds deserves an exemption and should be inducted. 10. Roger Clemens - SP This is another tricky one, but my argument for Clemens is essentially the same as the one I had for Bonds. Solely statistically speaking, Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers of all-time. His 7 Cy Young awards are the most of any pitcher ever, he is one of only 22 pitchers in history to win the MVP, he owns 2 of the 39 pitching Triple Crown seasons in history, and he is one of only 7 pitchers in history to achieve a pitching Triple Crown season multiple times. Clemens' 354 career wins place him 9th all-time and he is currently the only pitcher with more than 300 wins not in the Hall of Fame. His 4,672 career strikeouts are the 3rd most ever and obviously are above the 3,000 strikeout Hall of Fame clincher discussed previously for Curt Schilling. Clemens led the league in ERA 7 times, ranks 3rd all-time in career WAR for pitchers, and appeared in 11 All-Star games. Clemens also used steroids, largely believed starting in 1998, to continue to excel into old age. He won 2 Cy Young awards at ages 38 and 41, and came third in Cy Young voting at age 42. Other old pitchers have won the Cy Young before, such as 37 year-old R.A. Dickey in 2012 and 39 year-old Gaylord Perry in 1978, but these players were known for their funky pitches (knuckleball and spitball, respectively) rather than for their arm strength (however, Clemens did develop a splitter later in his career). At such an old age, Clemens continued to uncharacteristically throw the ball very hard and strikeout many batters. Clemens was not the only steroid using pitcher, and showed to be much better than his other steroid-using pitcher counterparts such as Andy Pettitte. Additionally, Clemens was first believed to use steroids in 1998 and accomplished so much before that season. From 1984 to 1997, Clemens had 213 wins, 2,882 strikeouts, an ERA of 2.97, 4 Cy Young awards, an MVP award, and 6 All-Star appearances. Clearly, Clemens was on his way to being a Hall of Famer before he started taking steroids. I encourage you to take a look at this article that predicts how Clemens' career would have turned out had he not started using steroids in 1998 (https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32806209/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-far-less-great-subtract-ped-factor). It notably predicts only 298 wins for Clemens. Despite Clemens' use of steroids, since he was so much better than other steroid-using pitchers and had already established himself as a Hall of Fame calibre pitcher prior to using steroids, I believe he still deserves to be in Cooperstown. NOT ON MY BALLOT THIS YEAR, BUT MAYBE IN THE FUTURE: These are players that I wouldn't include on my ballot for this year, but might in future years. They have some cases for consideration but haven't quite won me over yet, or their cases just are inferior to those of the players on my hypothetical ballot this year.
LIKELY NEVER ON MY BALLOT: I generally do not support any player that I truly believed to use steroids being in the Hall of Fame. I believe there is generally a "vibe" around players about whether the greater baseball community and society believes a player used steroids or not. While some people accost David Ortiz, I think most people don't believe the accusations and overall Ortiz has a positive vibe. Other players, such as Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Gary Sheffield, I believe have a negative vibe. All of these players played before testing was implemented and therefore there is no definitive proof, but the breadth of stories, physical growth, and statistical increases are case enough to determine that these players used steroids. More recent players, such as Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez, actually tested positive and we know with certainty that they did use steroids. A common and increasingly accepted stance on steroid use for Hall of Fame considerations is to only exclude players that officially tested positive. While this is not the exact stance that I hold, I do think this stance has its merits and I don't disagree with it entirely.
This is my first post in a long while and the first I will be doing since graduating from The University of Alabama with a Bachelor's degree in Commerce and Business Administration. In my final semester at Alabama, I took a course entitled "Introduction to Statistical Learning and Data Mining" where we learned about various predictive models for both regression and classification problems. For our final project, we had to find or develop our own dataset and use various different models to make predictions about that dataset. Naturally, I chose to create a predictive model that would determine whether a player was Hall of Fame caliber or not (a classification problem). It is this model that I will be sharing and using to predict the Hall of Fame future of the most notable players on this year's ballot. Upon receiving a perfect score on my final project and encouragement from my professor, I entered the report on my model to the Undergraduate Statistics Class Project (USCLAP) competition at the intermediate level. I will be sure to share how our fared in the competition once the results are in! (**UPDATE** - I ended up finishing 2nd in the competition, and was the only top finisher that did not work in a group. You can check out the winners here: https://www.causeweb.org/usproc/usclap/2021/fall/winners). The report that I submitted for the competition can be seen below. It is 13 pages total, but only about 3 pages of actual reading with the rest of the pages being visuals.
While viewing this report will save you some time reading, it really only serves as a general summary of the scope of the work I did to develop my model and therefore I feel it is not adequate writing for those of you that are interested in learning the full picture. Therefore, below you can find a longer version of the report that goes into deeper detail about the model, especially details surrounding baseball and history. This version is 34 pages total, with about 10 pages of actual reading.
The general idea is that I compiled the data of all current Hall of Fame position players (non-pitchers) that retired after 1920, which marked the end of the dead-ball era. No players or statistics from the Negro Leagues were used. The data that was used was a player's standard batting and fielding statistics, the various awards they received and accomplishments they completed, and how many seasons they led the league in a particular offensive category (such as hits or batting average). The exact same data was compiled for all of the non-Hall of Fame players (players that were removed from the BBWAA ballot). These players were decided using career WAR, how they fared at their position all-time in terms of stats and awards, and my own judgement. *PLAYERS THAT ARE NOT IN THE HALL OF FAME FOR NON-STATISTICAL REASONS, SUCH AS FOR GAMBLING AND USING STEROIDS, WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE DATASET*. Hence, no Pete Rose, no Mark McGwire, etc. The full dataset consisted of 124 Hall of Famers and 130 non-Hall of Famers, and can be seen below.
If you are interested in the specifics of how I developed my model, I encourage you to look at one of the report versions above. If you want less reading and only care about the model's eventual predictions, as well as a crash course on predictive modeling, feel free to read on. *If you truly only care about the model's predicted results, feel free to skip ahead to the point with 3 asterisks.* After trimming down the dataset by eliminating some players and some data columns (aka predictors), the models were ready to be trained. Essentially, all the remaining players in the dataset are put into 2 groups, the training set and the testing set. Here, the training set consisted of 146 players and the testing set consisted of 46 players. The idea is that the model examines the players in the training set and looks at the relationships between the predictors and a player's Hall of Fame status. It trains itself to be able to look at a player's career accomplishments and determine if they should be a Hall of Famer. From there, it looks at the career accomplishments of the players in the testing set and makes a prediction for their Hall of Fame status. Since the Hall of Fame status of all players in the dataset are known, we can compare the predicted Hall of Fame status of each player in the testing set with their actual Hall of Fame status. We measure how often the model is right and wrong in this regard to determine its accuracy. My initial model version correctly predicted 43 of the 46 players in the testing set. It correctly predicted 28 of the 29 non-Hall of Famers, with "The Cobra" Dave Parker being the lone player getting the hypothetical promotion. It correctly predicted 15 of the 17 Hall of Famers, with Alan Trammel and Lou Brock being the two snubbed players. While predicting Dave Parker as a Hall of Famer and Alan Trammel as not a Hall of Famer is understandable, failing to predict Lou Brock as a Hall of Famer is more of an egregious error. Nonetheless, the model is able to correctly assess 93.48% of the players it sees, likely much better than most BBWAA voters fare. Unfortunately, the recent Golden Days Era Committee election results adulterated the accuracy of the model somewhat. In the initial run Gil Hodges, Minne Minoso, and Tony Oliva were recorded as non-Hall of Famers. By changing these players to Hall of Famers in the dataset, the model develops a slightly different idea of what makes a Hall of Fame player. I could have gone through and refined and optimized all of the model's parameters, but that would have taken more time that I frankly don't have right now in the midst of final wedding preparations. Keeping the model the same and changing the dataset by those 3 players lowered the model's predictive accuracy to 91.30%, which is still pretty good. The model predicted Hodges as not a Hall of Famer (as it did the first time around), but with the recent election results this prediction is now inaccurate. Furthermore, the model also failed to predict Orlando Cepeda as a Hall of Famer. While the Era Committee results did make the model worse, it still remains a strong predictor of whether a player will be in the Hall of Fame. We can thus use the model on the players on the 2022 BBWAA election ballot to see which players it thinks are Hall of Fame worthy. The official 2022 BBWAA ballot has 30 players on it, but again the model does not deal with players that are pitchers (Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, etc.) or that have ties to steroids (notably Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield). Furthermore, some of the players on the ballot are quite obviously not Hall of Fame worthy (sorry Justin Morneau) so it didn't make sense to waste time running them through the model. In the end 12 position players on the ballot were run through the model, and you can view all of their dataset values in the spreadsheet below.
***SKIP HERE IF YOU ONLY CARE ABOUT THE PREDICTED RESULTS*** The model was slightly more harsh on the players than I anticipated. In my opinion 6 of these players deserve to be Hall of Famers (perhaps more on that in a later post), but the model only predicted 2 as Hall of Famers. If you read the reports above you know that the actual final model really consists of 4 different models that it averages out to determine the final results. David Ortiz was the one universal constant, predicted as a Hall of Famer by the final model and all 4 of the sub-models. Some of you may be questioning his inclusion since he does have a rumored tie to steroids, but it is my opinion that the evidence of steroid use by Ortiz is much thinner than that of his counterparts that I chose to exclude. The other predicted Hall of Famer by the final model was Todd Helton, who was predicted by 3 of the sub-models. Surprisingly, the closest non-Hall of Famer was Jimmy Rollins, who was not predicted as a Hall of Famer by the final model but was predicted as a Hall of Famer by 2 of the sub-models. Both Omar Vizquel and Bobby Abreau were not predicted as Hall of Famers by the final model but were predicted as Hall of Famers by 1 of the sub-models, albeit by different ones. In summary, the predictive model - which correctly determines a player's Hall of Fame fate 91.3% of the time - concluded that David Ortiz and Todd Helton are worthy of inclusion into the Hall of Fame. If you are interested in the weeds behind developing the final model, take a look below at the R file I wrote to tune and run the sub-models, as well as to develop predictions using the sub-models.
You can also take a look at the slides of the presentation I gave to my class below.
Thank you so much to take the time to read this post and I hope you found it interesting. Feel free to contact me or leave a comment with any questions you may have about the model, whether they be statistics or baseball related. I know it's been a while since I posted last, but I have plenty of exciting ideas and material planned out in my mind to share with you all over the coming months. Let me know your thoughts on the mentioned players' Hall of Fame worthiness in the polls below! The ballots for the 2020 baseball Hall of Fame election have been released, so I figured I would give my thoughts on who deserves to be in based on my Hall Of Fame Metric. Below you will see each player on the respective ballots score, as well as the average score of all Hall of Famers for that player's position. For positions that I formerly did lists on (CP, C, and 2B), that position's "Hall of Fame Line" will be listed instead. From the BBWAA Ballot - Bobby Abreu (OF): 1084.156, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Josh Beckett (SP): 980, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Heath Bell (CP): 1009.9, HoF Line is about 1225 Barry Bonds* (OF): 2828.7, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Eric Chavez (3B): 949.615, HoF Position Average is 1236.407 Roger Clemens* (SP): 2491.9, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Adam Dunn (OF/1B): 864.46, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Chone Figgins (3B/OF/2B): 666.566, HoF Position Average is 1236.407 Rafeal Furcal (SS): 785.011, HoF Position Average is 1058.16 Jason Giambi* (1B): 1146.163, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Todd Helton (1B): 1375.883, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Raul Ibanez (OF): 844.279, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Derek Jeter (SS): 1653.109, HoF Position Average is 1058.16 Andruw Jones (OF): 1321.36 HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Jeff Kent (2B): 1207.406, HoF Line is about 1023 Paul Konerko (1B): 997.502, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Cliff Lee (SP): 1086.4, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Carlos Pena (1B): 781.032, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Brad Penny (SP): 795.3, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Andy Pettitte* (SP): 1094.1, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 JJ Putz (CP): 975.3, HoF Line is about 1225 Manny Ramirez* (OF): 1669.348, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Brian Roberts (2B): 736.94, HoF Line is about 1023 Scott Rolen (3B): 1247.268, HoF Position Average is 1236.407 Curt Schilling (SP): 1313.8, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Gary Sheffield* (OF): 1341.424, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Alfonso Soriano (OF/2B): 1058.513, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Sammy Sosa* (OF): 1441.86, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Jose Valverde (CP): 1165.7, HoF Line is about 1225 Omar Vizquel (SS): 1249.553, HoF Position Average is 1058.16 Billy Wagner (CP): 1351.3, HoF Line is about 1225 Larry Walker (OF): 1486.434, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 All in all that gives us 15 players to actually consider for the ballot. (in bold) It is my opinion that the use of steroids by Sosa, Sheffield, and Ramirez should prevent them from being inducted. However, I think Clemens and Bonds deserve to be in because their level of play was still much higher than their fellow steroid users, which implies that they likely could have been Hall of Famers without using PEDs. I do believe they should be punished in some form for using PEDs, such as a statement or asterisk on their plaque addressing the issue. By taking 3 players out and putting 2 in, we now have 10 players left to address and only 8 spots left on the ballot. Since the Hall of Fame Line is meant to be an absolute line as to whether someone should be in Cooperstown or not, it makes since to eliminate Valverde next because he is below the line. Thus we have 9 players left and 8 spots. The final choice comes down to Schilling, Rolen, Helton, Wagner, and Jones, who are all fairly close to their Hall of Fame position averages. Though Schilling is the only player technically below the average, we must note that since it's an average, half of all Hall of Fame starting pitchers are below it. Schilling has waited longer than the others on the ballot and has a key landmark distinction of obtaining 3000 strikeouts. The other players did not meet such similar distinctions (500 homers or 3000 hits, for example). Thus I think Curt Schilling definitely deserves a spot. In the end I say leave Andruw Jones out since he is pretty close to the average and has the largest player pool to make that average (there are many Hall of Fame outfielders). He has also been on the ballot the least amount of years. To summarize, my 10 person ballot would be as follows: 1. Derek Jeter 2. Barry Bonds 3. Roger Clemens 4. Omar Vizquel 5. Jeff Kent 6. Larry Walker 7. Todd Helton 8. Curt Schilling 9. Billy Wagner 10. Scott Rolen From the Modern Baseball Era Ballot - Dwight Evans (OF): 1327.814, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Steve Garvey (1B): 1241.858, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Tommy John (SP): 1006.3, HoF Position Average is 1436.388 Don Mattingly (1B): 1387.283, HoF Position Average is 1357.082 Thurman Munson (C): 1064, HoF Line is about 1017 Dale Murphy (OF): 1459.4, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Dave Parker (OF): 1344.921, HoF Position Average is 1301.424 Ted Simmons (C): 1125, HoF Line is about 1017 Lou Whitaker (2B): 1177.248, HoF Line is about 1023 points Marvin Miller is also on the ballot, but since he wasn't a player I can't do much statistical analysis as to whether he belongs in the Hall or not. The Modern Era committee ballot allows for up to 4 votes. As we can see, all 9 players are around their Hall of Fame position average and thus are worthy of being considered for the all. Since Garvey and Tommy John are the only 2 below their average, it makes sense to eliminate them first but obviously there is a historical value to Tommy John's bid for the Hall due to the changing surgery named after and first performed on him. Thurman Munson was absolutely stellar during his short career and I think it's fair to say he could have been a no doubt Hall of Famer had he not died so young. We shouldn't penalize his legacy because of his accidental death; Munson belongs in. Simmons also ranks very highly among all catchers ever, but missed out on some of the limelight due to the existence of Johnny Bench. Murphy has very impressive awards and is by far the highest above his position average. Dave Parker has the closest to 3000 hits, as well as a fair amount of homers, which also puts him well above his position average. Mattingly and Evans, by comparison, are only barely above their position average. That leaves just Lou Whitaker, who I definitely think belongs in (especially since his partner in crime Alan Trammel has been inducted), but unfortunately I don't think is as deserving as Murphy, Parker, Simmons, or Munson. To summarize, my 4 person Modern Era committee ballot would be as follows: 1. Thurman Munson 2. Ted Simmons 3. Dale Murphy 4. Dave Parker Obviously, everyone has differences in opinion. For the normal ballot, I can only say 100% confidently that Jeter will get in. I think people will give Walker the benefit of the doubt since it will be his last year on the ballot. I also believe Vizquel will be given a good chance to get in. If Bonds and Clemens aren't voted in, they will likely get the highest share of the vote they've gotten so far. As for the historical ballot, it's kind of a toss up. All the players on the ballot are somewhat deserving, and the addition of players in recent years that were formerly thought of as members of the "Hall of Very Good" has opened voters' eyes into letting other greats in. The Hall is meant to be home to the greatest players ever, but we must realize just how many players have played in the MLB over all these years. These players might not be the best at their positions, but for a period of time they were certainly near the top of their class and deserve to be awarded for it. Thanks for reading. I know it has been a bit since my last post but I figured this was a good topic to comment my opinion on . Aaron Springer
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