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Everyone's favorite time of the year has arrived, with the 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot announced and the results set to be shared on January 23rd. As always, I will analyze each player on the ballot using my own opinions backed by statistical arguments. I will also share how each player fares in terms of my Player Value metric (which I'm still working on long-term to further refine), as well as the fate that my Hall of Fame model predicts for each player. You can read about the current version of my Player Value metric here, as well as its addendum here. Different rankings using Player Value can also be found here. Player Value exists to function as a simplified version of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) with a slightly different implementation. Players are still judged based on the run-value of the events they produce in terms of batting, fielding, baserunning, and pitching. The current version of Player Value has more simplified statistical splits than is preferable. Rather than comparing players to a hypothetical replacement level, they are compared to their positional 25th percentile, which I believe eliminates the need for a positional adjustment. You can read my paper on my Hall of Fame predictive model here. I created this model for a project in one of my statistics classes during my senior year of college. I was encouraged to enter my model into a larger competition and it finished in 2nd place. The model does NOT look at previous vote totals to make its predictions; rather, it looks at the career accolades and statistical accomplishments of players that have (or haven't) been inducted into the Hall of Fame and uses that knowledge to evaluate future players. The final model is actually a combination of 4 different sub-models, so it's possible for a sub-model to believe a player is a Hall of Famer but the overall model to not. Note that the Hall of Fame model does not currently predict pitchers. I plan to eventually revamp my Hall of Fame model as well, but my priority is still working on refining Player Value. As I've noted before, there are 2 ways to run players through the Hall of Fame model. One is using the initial dataset, meaning the model is not aware of any inductees from 2022 or 2023, so the last Hall of Famers that it's aware of are Ted Simmons, Derek Jeter, and Larry Walker from the 2020 class that was inducted in 2021 due to COVID. The other way is to use an updated dataset, informing the model of any inductees (and non-inductees) from the last few years. Under this approach, the model now knows that guys like David Ortiz, Gil Hodges, and Scott Rolen are Hall of Famers, while players like Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, and Jeff Kent are not. Generally this approach has the advantage of having more complete and recent data, but has declined in accuracy from the initial model. Without getting into the nitty gritty of predictive modeling, AUC is a measure of model accuracy and the closer it is to 1, the better. The initial dataset resulted in the model having an AUC of .9817, while the updated dataset gave the model an AUC of .9246. Since the initial dataset is still the more accurate one, that is the model whose prediction results I will be mainly sharing. However, if the updated model (or sub-models) think that any player should be inducted that the initial model didn't, then I'll be sure to mention that for each player as well. With the background aside, let's start taking a look each of the players on the ballot. I will order the players starting with who I would vote for, then who I would maybe vote for or be ok with being inducted, and lastly who I don't think should be inducted. Players I Would Vote For If I Had A BBWAA Ballot: Adrian Beltre, 3B (1998-2018) Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners, Boston Red Sox I think unsurprisingly, Beltre is the one absolute, certified Hall of Fame lock on this year's ballot. Starting on the most traditional side of things, his 3,166 career hits rank 18th all-time. I believe that not using PEDs and obtaining 3,000 hits is an automatic qualifier for Hall of Fame induction. Of the 33 players in history with at least 3,000 hits, 26 are in the Hall of Fame. Of the 7 not in Cooperstown, one is hit king Pete Rose, who is banned from baseball. Four of those are players that have not had their Hall of Fame candidacy voted on yet, in Beltre, Albert Pujols, Ichiro Suzuki, and Miguel Cabrera. The remaining two are PED users Alex Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro. Additionally, Beltre's 477 career home runs rank 31st all-time. I also believe that not using PEDs and obtaining 500 home runs is an automatic qualifier for Hall of Fame induction. Of the 28 players in history with at least 500 home runs, 19 are in the Hall of Fame. From the 9 players that aren't, 2 haven't had their cases voted on yet (Pujols, Cabrera). The remaining 7 all used PEDs (Rodriguez, Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield). While Beltre failed to reach this iconic mark, he came very close. Only 2 players have more homers than him and also aren't in the 500 home run club, and both are now Hall of Famers (Lou Gehrig and Fred McGriff). In terms of accolades, Beltre appears to have gotten the short end of the stick compared to what his numbers suggest he deserved. However, his award accomplishments are still fairly impressive. His 5 Gold Gloves rank 8th among third basemen, tied with Ken Boyer, Doug Rader, and Hall of Famer Ron Santo. Of the 7 players with more Gold Gloves at third base, 3 are in the Hall of Fame (Robinson, Schmidt, Rolen), and one is still active (Nolan Arenado). Beltre's 4 Silver Sluggers rank 4th among third basemen, tied with Jose Ramirez and Matt Williams. Of the 3 players with more Silver Sluggers at third base, 2 are in the Hall of Fame (Boggs, Schmidt), and one is still active (Arenado). Beltre's 4 All-Star games are tied for 33rd among third basemen, with 10 other players such as Sal Bando, Al Rosen, and Kris Bryant. Even just by looking at awards we see that Beltre's combination of offensive and defensive skill was unique and only topped in history by the likes of Mike Schmidt and Nolan Arenado. On the more advanced statistical side, Beltre's career WAR of 93.5 ranks very favorably as the 3rd highest among third basemen in history, only behind Hall of Famers Schmidt and Eddie Mathews. Across all positions, his WAR ranks 40th all-time, behind 35 Hall of Famers, 3 PED users (Bonds, A-Rod, Clemens) and the yet-to-be-voted-on Pujols. On the offensive side of WAR, Beltre's career Rbat of 257 ranks 10th among primarily third basemen all-time, behind 6 Hall of Famers and John McGraw, who may have been inducted as a player if he hadn't already been inducted as a manager. On the defensive side of WAR, Beltre's career Rfield of 216 ranks 2nd among primarily third basemen all-time, only behind Hall of Famer Brooks Robinson. In terms of Player Value, Beltre ranks 13th all-time among third basemen at 374.03. That puts him behind 9 Hall of Famers and 3 third basemen that Player Value thinks are underrated in Darrell Evans, Harlond Clift, and Willie Kamm. I have 931 primarily third basemen by games played from 1912-2021, putting Beltre in the top 1.4%. While his Batting Value of 143.67 does not rank in the top 25 (38th), his Fielding Value of 226.73 ranks 6th all-time among third basemen. Even though Player Value thinks that Beltre gained most of his value with his glove, it doesn't think he was ever actually the best defensive third baseman in his league, giving him 0 Gold Gloves. It agrees with his 4 Silver Sluggers, but thinks he should have been a 6 time ALl-Star instead. Unsurprisingly, the Hall of Fame model predicts Beltre as a Hall of Famer, giving him a 65.22% probability. While 2 of the sub-models predicted Beltre as a Hall of Famer (FDA and SVM), 2 of them did not (GLM and NNet), giving him probabilities of 46.73% and 45.10%, respectively. The updated model gives Beltre a slightly higher probability at 71.40%, and also wins over the support of the NNet sub-model. Verdict: I hope I've been able to make it clear how blatantly obvious it is that Adrian Beltre belongs in the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest third basemen, both offensive and defensively, in the history of baseball. He should be a first-ballot inductee and receive a very high percentage of the vote. Todd Helton, 1B (1997-2013) Colorado Rockies Helton was very, very close to being inducted on last year's ballot, receiving 72.2% of the 75% needed. I supported Helton's case last year and part of my argument then was his similarity to recently inducted Hall of Famers Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker. You can check out this comparison on Stathead and see that all 3 of these players have 2000+ hits, 300+ home runs, 470+ doubles, 1250+ RBI, and slash lines above .300/.400/.515/.930. Amongst this trio, Helton has the most hits, RBI, and highest batting average. Another similar Hall of Famer that nearly fits those criteria is Jeff Bagwell, whose .297 career batting average falls slightly lower. In fact, just 13 players in baseball history have meet these criteria. Among them are 11 Hall of Famers in Martinez, Walker, Babe Ruth, Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Mel Ott, Chipper Jones, and Frank Thomas. The only non-Hall of Famers are Helton and PED user Manny Ramirez. Helton is clearly one of the more impressive offensive players in history. Helton fares decently on the accolade side with 5 All-Star appearances, 4 Silver Sluggers, and 3 Gold Gloves. His 5 All-Star games are only tied for 33rd most all-time among first basemen, but other recent first base inductees like Thomas, Bagwell, and Jim Thome also sit at 5 or less All-Star games. While the Silver Slugger is a fairly new award (since 1980), Helton is tied with obvious future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols for the 2nd most all-time among first basemen. Ahead of them with 5 is the still active (and potentially future Hall of Famer) Paul Goldschmidt. Helton's career WAR of 61.8 ranks 17th all-time among first basemen. Ahead of him are 11 Hall of Famers, 2 future Hall of Famers in Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, 2 PED users in Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire, and another potential future Hall of Famer in Joey Votto. A likely underrated aspect of Helton's game was his defense, as his Rfield ranks as the 9th most by a primarily first baseman in history. Other first base comparisons include ranking 13th in hits (behind 11 HOFers, Pujols/Cabrera, and Palmeiro), ranking 4th in doubles (behind HOFer David Ortiz and Pujols/Cabrera), ranking 8th in OBP (behind 7 HOFers and Ferris Fain), ranking 14th in slugging (behind 10 HOFers, Pujols, McGwire, and Carlos Delgado), and ranking 11th in OPS (behind 9 HOFers and McGwire). Player Value is particularly fond of Todd Helton, rating him as the 4th best first baseman from 1912-2021 with a Player Value of 699.13. While I don't believe that to be true, the metric is accurate enough in other areas to certainly at least suggest that Helton's value is vastly underrated. I have 894 first basemen based on games played during that span, putting Helton in the top 0.4%. Based solely on value provided at first base, Helton ranks 3rd. His Batting Value of 375.52 ranks 9th, behind 8 Hall of Famers. What really is the kicker is that Helton's Fielding Value of 329.22 ranks as the highest among all first basemen from 1912-2021. Player Value thinks that Todd Helton is clearly a Hall of Famer, if not one of the better players in history. On the accolade front, Player Value thinks Helton should have been a 6 time All-Star, won 5 Silver Sluggers, and won 5 Gold Gloves. Like last year, the Hall of Fame model predicts Helton as a Hall of Famer and this year gives him a probability of 73.03%. All 4 of the sub-models believe that Helton is worthy of induction. The updated model still predicts Helton as a Hall of Famer, but gives him a lower probability at 62.89% and he also loses support from 2 of the sub-models (FDA and GLM). Verdict: I think we allow the impact of playing for the Rockies, as well as our notions of what a typical first baseman looks like, to blur our perception of how valuable of a player Helton was. While Coors allowed him to hit more homers and therefore have a higher slugging and OPS when at home, the same wasn't true for 50% of Helton's career when playing on the road. Furthermore, much of his value wasn't from being a typical slugging first baseman with unconquerable power. Rather, Helton added value offensively by walking and getting on base a lot, as well as by hitting many doubles. He also added a great deal of value defensively with his glove. I think Helton is clearly deserving of induction. Andruw Jones, CF (1996-2012) Atlanta Braves, New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers Jones is another player whose induction I supported last year and will carry over this year. My traditional argument for him is pretty simple. We've previously discussed my 500 home run automatic qualifying rule, and Jones got fairly close with 434 career homers, ranking 48th all-time. Between him and the soon to be effective Hall of Fame line of 477 homers once Beltre gets inducted are 17 other players. Of those 17, 8 are in the Hall of Fame (Musial, Stargell, Chipper Jones, Winfield, Yaz, Guerreo, Bagwell, Dawson). Also ahead of him is likely future Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran. The other 8 players were all more one-dimensional home run hitter types such as Adam Dunn, Dave Kingman, and Nelson Cruz. So while Andruw Jones' homers aren't quite enough to get him in on their own, they are very close. What puts him over the top is that he was also a terrific defender, winning 10 Gold Gloves in centerfield during his career. Only 5 other players have won 10 or more Gold Gloves in the outfield, and it's quite the list with 4 Hall of Famers (Clemente, Mays, Kaline, Griffey Jr.) and a future Hall of Famer in Ichiro Suzuki. Given these 2 feats, I don't see how anyone thinks Andruw Jones doesn't deserve to be in Cooperstown. Jones' career WAR of 62.7 ranks 14th among centerfielders, behind 10 Hall of Famers, Beltran, Mike Trout, and Kenny Lofton. His Rfield of 273 ranks 1st among primarily centerfielders in history, aligning with his many Gold Gloves. Those 434 homers rank 6th among centerfielders, behind 4 Hall of Famers (Mays, Mantle, Dawson, Griffery Jr.) and Beltran. Jones was a 5 time All-Star and finished 2nd in 2005 NL MVP voting after leading the NL with 51 homers and 128 RBI, but in terms of his Hall of Fame case it really comes down to his home run totals and defensive ability. Jones' Player Value of 334.01 ranks 16th all-time among centerfielders from 1912-2021. Ahead of him are 10 Hall of Famers, Beltran, the still active Mike Trout, and players that were denied induction in Jim Edmonds, Bernie Williams, Fred Lynn. I personally am fine with all 3 of those players getting inducted. I have 920 primarily centerfielders based on games played during this span, putting Jones in the top 1.7%. Most of Jones' value comes from his Fielding Value of 156.89, which ranks 9th all-time among centerfielders from 1912-2021. Above him there are 4 Hall of Famers (Ashburn, Carey, Speaker, Mays), as well as other defensive greats like 6-time Gold Glove winner Dwayne Murphy and 8-time Gold Glove winner Paul Blair. Jones' Batting Value of 177.86 ranks 33rd among centerfielders from 1912-2021, between the likes of Lenny Dykstra and Jim Wynn. In terms of accolades, Player Value thinks Jones should have been a 7 time All-Star but that he should have only won 4 Gold Gloves. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Jones as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 25.02%. However, the FDA sub-model does believe Jones to be a Hall of Famer, with a probability of 69.68%, though this is the least accurate in terms of AUC of the initial 4 sub-models. One of the most important variables to the FDA sub-model is the difference between a player's Range Factor per game (RF/G) and the average RF/G at their position during their career. Jones had a career RF/G of 2.49, meaning he made about 2.49 outs per game, while the average player with his positional mix during his career had an RF/G of 2.22. That gives Jones a difference of +0.27, which ranks 1st among all players on the 2024 ballot that I ran through the model. Of the 264 players in the dataset I used for the model only 14 of them had a higher RF/G diff than Jones, including 11 Hall of Famers, hence his support from the initial version of the FDA sub-model. The updated model gives Jones an ever lower probability of 9.50% and has none of the sub-models supporting him. Verdict: I think it's pretty clear that Jones is among the game's greatest centerfielders, and that the Hall of Fame has had an issue inducting qualified centerfielders unless they were absolutely inner-circle players like Ken Griffey Jr. But Jones' case for Cooperstown is really as simple as the fact that he hit a whole bunch of home runs at an important defensive position while also being one of the best defenders at that position in history. Carlos Beltran, CF (1998-2017) New York Mets, Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants I supported Beltran's induction last year despite his involvement in the 2017 Houston Astros' sign-stealing scandal. I discussed that in more detail last year and won't rehash that any more here. I think that statistically Beltran is an obvious Hall of Famer and the only reason he wasn't inducted his first time around last year was because of the sign-stealing scandal. We've covered the near 500 home run argument with Beltre and Jones already, and the same is true for Beltran. His 435 career home runs sit just above Jones for the 47th most all-time and the 5th most among centerfielders, behind 4 Hall of Famers as mentioned above under Jones' section. While Beltran does not have the Gold Gloves or defensive ability of Jones, he was the more dynamic offensive player. His 2,725 career hits are also close to my 3,000 hit automatic qualifier that I mentioned for Beltre. Beltran ranks 62nd all-time in hits, and 9th all-time among centerfielders, behind 5 Hall of Famers. Beltran's offensive profile is very similar to that of Hall of Famer Andre Dawson, who racked up 2,774 hits in his career and slugged 438 homers while also playing in the outfield. Beltran is one of just 13 primarily outfielders in history with at least 2,700 hits and at least 400 home runs. That list consists of 11 Hall of Famers, PED user Barry Bonds, and Beltran. When we restrict that to just primarily centerfielders, Beltran is one of just 3 players in history, along with Hall of Famers Willie Mays and Ken Griffey Jr. Beltran was fairly decorated with 9 All-Star games, which ranks 7th among centerfielders behind 5 Hall of Famers and Mike Trout. He's tied with Hall of Famer Larry Dobby, as well as Fred Lynn and Negro-Leaguer Neil Robinson. Beltran also ranks 3rd in doubles among centerfielders, behind Hall of Famers Tris Speaker and Ty Cobb. He ranks 5th in RBI among centerfielders, behind 4 Hall of Famers. Beltran's career WAR of 70.1 ranks 8th all-time among centerfielders, behind 6 Hall of Famers and Mike Trout. While 60 WAR is a good general cutoff of Hall-of-Fame-caliber WAR, there are only 11 players in history with 70+ WAR not in Cooperstown. Among them are Beltran and Beltre on this year's ballot, the still active Trout, future Hall of Famer Pujols, banned from baseball Pete Rose, and PED users Bonds, A-Rod, and Palmeiro. The remaining 3 players include underrated second basemen Lou Whitaker and Bobby Grich that many hope to be inducted by an Era Committee someday, and old-timer Bill Dahlen that played from 1891-1911. That is all to say that Beltran clearly has the WAR generally required to get inducted. Perhaps an underrated piece of Beltran's ability was his baserunning, as his 312 stolen bases aren't enough to initially amaze. However, he actually has the 4th highest stolen base percentage in history (with some playing time minimums). The 3 players ahead of him all have far fewer stolen base attempts, and Beltran is the only player in the top 15 with at least 300 stolen bases. This value is captured in his WAR, as Beltran's Rbaser of 55 ranks as the 14th most in history. Many people like to praise Barry Bonds as being the only member of the 400 home run, 400 stolen base club, but Beltran's 312 stolen bases and high percentage of success actually proved to be the more valuable combination (on the steals front, at least). Beltran's career Player Value of 416.39 ranks 10th among primarily centerfielders from 1912-2021, behind 8 Hall of Famers, Mike Trout, and Jim Edmonds. Again, with 920 centerfielders based on games played during this span, Beltran ranks in the top 1.1%. His Batting Value of 284.81 ranks 14th all-time among that same group, behind 8 Hall of Famers, Trout, Edmonds, Bernie Williams, Fred Lynn, and Andrew McCutchen. His Baserunning Value of 22.95 ranks 6th all-time among that same group. On the accolade front, Player Value thinks Beltran should have been a 7 time All-Star, 2 time Silver Slugger, and 1 time Gold Glover, as well as a 1 time Hank Aaron winner. Like last year, the Hall of Fame model predicts Beltran as a Hall of Famer, this year giving him a probability of 72.96%. Beltran also has induction support from each of the 4 sub-models. The updated model also thinks Beltran is a Hall of Famer and gives him an even larger probability of 83.57%, with each of the 4 sub-models still supporting him. One important note is that players not inducted for non-statistical reasons, such as the character clause (Pete Rose) or PED issues (Mark McGwire), were excluded from the list of players used to create the Hall of Fame model. That is likely the reason Beltran wasn't inducted last year, but I have decided to still use the model on him since it seems that voters aren't punishing Beltran as much and that his induction is likely to occur in the coming years. Verdict: I think Beltran is clearly a Hall of Famer on the statistical side. He played a premier defensive position and held his own while also being a tremendous baserunner and a well-rounded offensive threat. His involvement in the sign-stealing scandal certainly puts a blemish on his legacy but I don't think it is enough to disqualify his induction, as no other involved players were really involved and the Astros were not stripped of their World Series title. Billy Wagner, CP (1995-2010) Houston Astros, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox Wagner is another player that I supported last year, and received a solid 68.1% of the vote in his 8th year on the ballot. Wagner has just 2 years of eligibility on the ballot remaining, so hopefully he clear the 75% required for induction and avoids a similar fate to that of Jeff Kent last year. I've mentioned my 3,000 hits and 500 homers automatic qualifiers, and I hold similar stances (as do most people) for starting pitchers that reach 3,000 strikeouts or 300 wins. Relief pitchers don't have as much statistical history to rely on, so a standard Hall of Fame save threshold hasn't really been established. Using 600 saves (or even 500 saves) is too extreme as only 2 players have eclipsed those marks in history (Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman). I believe that 400 saves is a good threshold, as just 8 players have recorded that many, and most people believe that relievers aren't as valuable as other positions and therefore not as many should be in the Hall of Fame. Wagner's 422 career saves clears that mark and ranks him 6th all-time, behind Hall of Famers Rivera, Hoffman, and Lee Smith, as well as fellow ballot member Francisco Rodriguez and the denied Jeff Franco. Apart from the staggering save total, Wagner appeared in 7 All-Star games in his career, which is tied for the 5th most by a reliever. Ahead of him are 3 Hall of Famers (Rivera, Goose Gossage, Hoyt Wilhelm) and the still-active Craig Kimbrel. Wilhelm played in the late 1950s and early 1960s when there were actually 2 All-Star games per season, so he actually only had 5 unique All-Star seasons, putting him behind Wagner. Tied with Wagner at 7 All-Star games are 3 Hall of Famers (Hoffman, Smith, Rollie Fingers) and the still-active Aroldis Chapman. I think Wagner's accolades squarely put him among some Hall of Fame counterparts. After setting some minimum playing time requirements, Wagner's career ERA of 2.31 ranks 6th among relievers all-time. The top 4 are all currently active relievers whose ERA's will surely deteriorate as they log more innings over their careers; they all have less than 250 innings pitched, while Wagner sits at 903. The only reliever in history with a lower ERA and as many innings pitched as Wagner is quite literally the greatest closer of all-time and the first unanimous Hall of Fame inductee, Mariano Rivera. You can check for yourself on Stathead. Wagner's career WAR of 27.7 ranks as the 14th highest among relievers all-time. Above him are 6 Hall of Famers (Dennis Eckersley, Rivera, Wilhelm, Gossage, Smith, Hoffman). Many of the players above him also spent considerable time as starting pitchers before switching to a relief role, and the nature of pitching more innings allowed them to accumulate more value. While Wagner didn't start a single game in his career, 6 of the relievers with more WAR than him started over 100 games, and 3 started over 200 games (including Eckersley). Hall of Famers and part-time starters aside, the only relievers with more WAR than Wagner are John Hiller and Lindy McDaniel. Player Value is more generous towards Wagner, as his career Player Value of 135.82 ranks as the 4th highest among primarily relievers from 1912-2021. Ahead of him are Hall of Famers Rivera and Wilhelm, as well as Kent Tekulve. With 6,098 relievers based on games played during this span, Wagner ranks in the top 0.1%. His Pitching Value of 138.59 ranks as the 3rd highest, only behind Hall of Famers Rivera and Wilhelm. On the accolade side, Player Value thinks Wagner should have been just a 4 time All-Star, but that he should have won 2 Reliever of the Year awards, rather than only one. The Hall of Fame predictive model was not initially setup to work on pitchers, since evaluating pitchers and position players for the Hall of Fame is vastly different. Therefore I didn't run Wagner through the model this year since I haven't gotten around to setting up a pitcher version yet. Verdict: Wagner ranks very favorably among other Hall of Fame relievers in terms of career saves, All-Star games, career ERA given his innings pitched, and Player Value. I think he clearly is one of the best relievers in history and deserves to be honored for playing that role. Many people think that relievers are overrated and less of them should be inducted, given that they throw far fewer innings than starters. I counter that they play unique, important roles in often high leverage situations. If we think they weren't as valuable, why would teams be using them? He was given a role and stood out among his peers while doing so. Wagner's Player Value even ranks favorably compared to many starters, such as Hall of Famers Jack Morris and Catfish Hunter and other notable players like David Cone and Andy Pettitte. Francisco Rodriguez, CP (2002-2017) Los Angeles Angels, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Mets, Detroit Tigers, Baltimore Orioles I supported K-Rod's induction last year and will continue to do so this year. As I mentioned under Wagner's section, I think eclipsing 400 saves is worthy of induction. At 437 saves, K-Rod ranks even higher at 4th all-time, behind 3 Hall of Famers in Rivera, Hoffman, and Smith. Nobody has as many saves as K-Rod that isn't in Cooperstown. K-Rod also holds the record for most saves in a single season, when he recorded 62 in 2008. No other closer has recorded more than 60 saves in a season. K-Rod finished 3rd in AL Cy Young voting that year and would win his 2nd Reliever of the Year award. Rodriguez's 6 All-Star games in his career puts him tied for 10th among relievers in history. We covered the relievers with 7+ All-Star games under Wagner's section, a list that is entirely comprised of 7 Hall of Famers, 2 active players, and Wagner. Tied with Rodriguez at 6 All-Star games are Hall of Famers Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter, as well as other notable closers in Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon. The last one is Roy Face, who benefitted from seasons with 2 All-Star games and thus only had 3 distinct All-Star seasons. I would not have been upset if Nathan or Papelbon were inducted, but did not support their induction when they appeared on the ballot in 2021. The separation between K-Rod and Nathan/Papelbon is thin, but I put K-Rod over the edge given his single season save record and the fact that he racked up about 1 more season of solid closer production, as measured by saves. K-Rod's ERA to innings pitched comparison isn't as good as Wagner's, as he ranks 9th in ERA among relievers with at least 900 innings pitched. However, his 2.86 ERA and 976 innings pitched does barely surpass Nathan's 2.87 ERA in 923 innings; Papelbon posted a lower ERA at 2.44, but only pitched 725 innings. Rodriguez's career WAR of 24.2 ranks just 25th all-time among primarily relievers, not really supporting his case for induction. However, Hall of Fame closer Bruce Sutter is right there with him at 24.1. Player Value separates these two slightly more, as K-Rod's career Player Value of 72.89 ranks 34th among primarily relievers, while Sutter's Player Value of 92.45 ranks 18th. Rodriguez's Pitching Value of 64.16 ranks 25th among primarily relievers from 1912-2021. Player Value doesn't like K-Rod on the accolade front either, thinking he should have been just a 1 time All-Star and that he shouldn't have won any Reliever of the Year awards. However, with 6,098 relievers based on games played during this span, K-Rod still ranks in the top 0.4%. Again, the Hall of Fame predictive model is not currently set up to be run on pitchers. Verdict: I may have created Player Value, but I'm going with my more traditional gut here. I think K-Rod's career saves total and single season saves record deserve proper recognition, and his career All-Star games and ERA (given his innings pitched) are good enough to deserve induction. Omar Vizquel, SS (1989-2012) Cleveland Indians, Seattle Mariners, San Francisco Giants, Chicago White Sox, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays I'll start Vizquel's discussion by acknowledging his domestic violence and sexual harassment incidents that have greatly hindered his induction chances among the BBWAA electorate, as he declined from receiving 52.6% of the vote in 2020 to receiving just 19.5% of the vote in 2023. I discussed Vizquel's incidents in my Hall of Fame post last year, as well as similar cases with Andruw Jones and Francisco Rodriguez. I do not support any of these cases and think that they are objective examples of bad behavior. However, I do think that Hall of Fame voters should focus on evaluating the on-field baseball career of players, rather than serving as more investigative moral arbiters. There are almost certainly players already in Cooperstown that committed just as worse (if not worse) acts than Vizquel, and to my knowledge the exclusion of a player from the Hall of Fame for off-the-field reasons (outside of betting on baseball or PED usage) is a fairly recent revelation. Very similar to Andruw Jones' case (who again, also has a domestic violence past but received 58.1% of the vote in 2023), my argument for Vizquel's induction is traditional and two-sided. For Jones, it was nearly hitting 500 home runs. For Vizquel, it is nearly recording 3,000 hits. I discussed the 3,000 hit qualifier previously under Adrian Beltre's section. Vizquel's 2,877 career hits ranks 44th all-time, and we've already covered the 33 mostly Hall of Famers with 3,000 or more hits. Of the 10 players with more hits than Vizquel but not quite 3,000 hits, 9 of them are in the Hall of Fame. The other player is Barry Bonds, who would be an obvious Hall of Famer if not for his PED usage. Vizquel has the most hits of any player that isn't in the Hall of Fame, isn't an obvious future Hall of Famer (Pujols, Cabrera, Beltre, Ichiro), isn't banned from baseball (Rose), or isn't a former PED user. That in itself is a very strong Hall of Fame argument to me, but again the actual automatic qualifier is 3,000 hits, not 2,8777, so Vizquel needs a little more to get over the hump. Fortunately for Vizquel, he was also an elite fielder at a premier defensive position. His staggering 11 Gold Gloves are the 2nd most by a shortstop in history, only behind Hall of Fame defensive wizard Ozzie Smith. Vizquel is one of only 9 players in history to win 11 or more Gold Gloves, and 7 of those are in the Hall of Fame (Maddux, Kaat, Pudge, Smith, Robinson, Clemente, Mays). The other is first baseman Keith Hernandez, and it is certainly arguable that winning 11 Gold Gloves at a premier defensive position like shortstop is more impressive than winning 11 Gold Gloves at a more offensively inclined position like first base. It is also certainly arguable that Keith Hernandez should be in the Hall of Fame himself. Vizquel's career WAR of 45.6 ranks 30th all-time among primarily shortstops. The players ahead of him include 20 Hall of Famers, PED users A-Rod and Miguel Tejada, and 2 older players that many think should be inducted as well in Bill Dahlen and Jack Glasscock. WAR does not value Vizquel as much defensively as his Gold Gloves would suggest. His Rfield of 129 ranks 18th all-time among primarily shortstops, but ahead of him are 8 Hall of Famers, the aforementioned Dahlen and Glasscock, and other notable defensive gurus like Mark Belanger and Andrelton Simmons. Interestingly enough, Vizquel's career Player Value of 285.84 also ranks 30th all-time among primarily shortstops from 1912-2021. While that's behind most Hall of Famers, he sits just ahead of Hall of Famer Phil Rizzuto. With 955 primarily shortstops based on games played during this span, Vizquel ranks in the top 3.1%. His Fielding Value of 278.48 ranks 8th, with 4 Hall of Famers ahead of him. Part of the reason that Vizquel's Player Value is his "compiler" nature, where he was able to rack up hits towards his career total despite poor performance overall (Vizquel played 24 MLB seasons, until he was 45). I think this argument goes both ways. On the one hand, Vizquel got more career hits to help his Hall of Fame case, but that extra playing time also decreased his career Player Value to hurt his Hall of Fame case. On the other hand, had Vizquel retired after his age 39 season, his career hit total would suffer but his Player Value would have been about 50 higher to place him in the top 25. I plan to workshop a potential Hall of Fame version of Player Value (similar to what JAWS is to WAR) that doesn't penalize players that play poorly when they are old. The key idea here is that Vizquel's "compiling" more or less washes out, as his Cooperstown case gets helped and hurt in different ways had he not played as long. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Vizquel as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 21.39%. None of the 4 sub-models support his induction, though the most accurate initial sub-model in terms of AUC (SVM) gives him the highest probability at 43.40%. The updated model also doesn't think Vizquel is worthy of Cooperstown, giving him a slightly lower probability at 20.47%, with none of the updated sub-models supporting his induction either. Verdict: Vizquel has done some bad things that certainly don't deserve any praise. However, I prefer to look at Hall of Famers solely for their non-cheating on the field merits. I think Vizquel's career hits total puts him close to consideration, and that his elite fielding skills at a premier defensive position, as measured by his numerous Gold Gloves, puts him over the top. Even if he retired earlier and didn't get as many hits, he still would have won all those Gold Gloves and his Player Value would have been even higher, closer to the typical Hall of Fame range. Torii Hunter, CF/RF (1997-2015) Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels, Detroit Tigers Torii Hunter is probably the most controversial (from a playing ability perspective) player that I support for induction. I supported him last year, and he barely survived on the ballot, receiving 6.9% of the 5% needed to remain. Hunter was even lower according to the publicly released ballots, but the private ballots at the end put him over the top. You can check out the 2023 tab in the public Ballot Tracker largely ran by Ryan Thibodaux and see that there Hunter only got 6.2%. This year, as of this writing, Hunter sits at just 8 votes from 174 publicly released ballots and 11 anonymous ballots, putting him at 4.3%. While that's a lower rate as last year, only about 48% of ballots have been revealed yet. I fear that Hunter may fall off the ballot this year given the wealth of other decent candidates that other voters may prefer. As I discussed last year, my argument for Hunter is embedded in my arguments for Andruw Jones and Omar Vizquel, as well as what my argument was for the now inducted Scott Rolen. Jones hit nearly 500 home runs (434) and won 10 Gold Gloves, but had just 1,933 hits. Vizquel had nearly 3,000 hits (2,877) and won 11 Gold Gloves, but had only 80 homers. Rolen was also a defensive wizard and won 8 Gold Gloves, but his offensive skills were more balanced with 2,077 hits and 316 home runs, rather than as being power-concentrated as Jones or as contact-concentrated as Vizquel. Hunter's argument is precisely the same; he was stellar defensively and won 9 Gold Gloves, and was more than competent offensively with a balanced 2,452 hits and 353 home runs. For some reason many more people think that Jones is worthy of Cooperstown than Hunter. Hunter had 519 more hits than Jones, and 118 fewer home runs. Of those 519 extra hits, 115 of them were doubles and 3 of them were triples. If we look at the FanGraphs Guts! page to understand how valuable different types of hits are, and then reconcile that with the hit differences between Jones and Hunter, we can see that Hunter clearly comes out on top. Using those 2023 FanGraphs weights, I have Hunter at +458 value for singles, +143 for doubles, +5 for triples, and -236 for home runs, putting his total career hitting value over Jones at +370. (I know I'm ignoring other offensive events here, but that's what we have Player Value for below!). Those 9 Gold Gloves by Hunter are the 7th most by an outfielder in history. Ahead of him are Jones, future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki, and 4 Hall of Famers (Clemente, Mays, Kaline, Griffey Jr.). Hunter's career WAR of 50.7 ranks 26th all-time among centerfielders, behind 14 Hall of Famers. Also ahead of him are fellow ballot members Beltran and Jones, as well as other notable players that I wouldn't mind seeing inducted in Jim Edmonds and Kenny Lofton. So WAR isn't that fond of Hunter, and that trend continues when looking at the defensive piece of WAR. Hunter's career Rfield of 33 ranks just 186th among primarily outfielders in history. If we instead look at dWAR, which gives centerfielders more credit via the positional adjustment, Hunter ranks slightly more favorably at 76th among primarily outfielders. Player Value is also not overtly fond of Hunter, as his career Player Value of 215.80 ranks just 37th among primarily centerfielders from 1912-2021. As mentioned with Jones and Beltran, there are 920 primarily centerfielders based on games played during this span, which would put Hunter in the top 4%. Defensively, Hunter's Fielding Value of 143.38 ranks 15th among centerfielders, behind 4 Hall of Famers, Jones, Jim Edmonds, Paul Blair, and Mike Cameron, to name a few. Player Value agrees that Hunter was one of the better defensive centerfielders in history, but not quite good enough to boost his overall value up in Hall of Fame territory. On the accolade front, Player Value thinks Hunter should have only been a 2 time All-Star, only won 1 Silver Slugger, and even only won 1 Gold Glove. However, it does think he should have won a Platinum Glove in that year, something that only 5 other centerfielders can claim according to Player Value. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Hunter as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 17.76%, with none of the 4 sub-models supporting his induction either. The updated model also doesn't support his induction, but gives him a slightly higher probability at 18.23%, though still none of the sub-models think of him as a Hall of Famer. Verdict: This is another gut call that goes against what Player Value and WAR suggest, but I can't raitonalize my support of Rolen, Jones, and Vizquel without also supporting Hunter. The advanced metrics don't like Hunter's defensive abilities as much as the other 3 or as much as his Gold Gloves suggest. I think we should use the more advanced fielding metrics to make more informed Gold Glove selections in the future, but I don't think previous Gold Glove winners should be retroactively punished for what today's prevailing numbers suggest. A Gold Glove is meant to represent the best defender at each position in each league, and the winners should be treated as such when evaluating their candidacy. Practically every outfielder that has won as many Gold Gloves as Hunter has been inducted, and Hunter was certainly more valuable offensively than the likes of guys like Paul Blair or Garry Maddox. Advanced stats be damned, I think Hunter was a terrific fielder, and here's a video of some highlights to prove that. The first thing that comes to mind when I think of Torii Hunter is robbing home runs (this article ranks him as the 2nd best ever), which could be the reason behind his unimpressive advanced defensive numbers. Fans love to see a home run robbery, but systems like Player Value are more about the quantity of outs made rather than the difficulty of individual outs made. Modern systems like Outs Above Average do consider catch difficulty, but actually don't think robbing home runs is that difficult of a play for most fielders. This home-run-robbing catch by Brandon Nimmo in 2022 was given a whopping catch probability of 70% given its hang time of 5.2 seconds and that he was 76 feet from where the ball landed at the start of the play. Catch probability just doesn't do a great job at considering the difficulty of dealing with walls and timing jumps to rob home runs, in my opinion. Joe Mauer, C/1B (2004-2018) Minnesota Twins Mauer is the 2nd new addition to my hypothetical ballot this year, after the obvious inductee of Beltre. Given that Mauer was primarily a catcher, it's critical that we keep things relative to his position when developing our expectations (no catcher has ever hit 500 home runs or 3,000 hits, for example). Mauer's 2,123 career hits rank 9th all-time among catchers, behind 5 Hall of Famers, probably future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina, fellow ballot member Victor Martinez, and Jason Kendall. That's not enough to easily get him in, but it does rank him favorably towards the top. What we should note that outside of Hall of Famer Mike Piazza, none of the 8 catchers with more hits had as few plate appearances as Mauer. When it comes to contact, the man could flat out hit. His career batting average of .306 is again only topped by Piazza's .308 when it comes to catchers with more hits. After setting some playing time requirements, his batting average ranks 10th all-time among catchers, behind 6 Hall of Famers and 3 older players with significantly fewer hits that played when high batting averages were much more common. On the awards front, Mauer is one of only 12 catchers in history to win an MVP. Of the other 11 players, 7 are in the Hall of Fame, 2 should be in the Hall of Fame in my opinion (Thurman Munson and Elston Howard), 1 has yet to appear on the ballot (Buster Posey), and the odd man out is Bob O'Farrell. Mauer also won 3 batting titles by leading the league in batting average 3 times. Across all positions, this feat has been accomplished by 29 players in history. Of those 29 players, 22 are in the Hall of Fame. The exceptions are Miguel Cabrera (hasn't been on a ballot yet), Jose Altuve (still active), Pete Rose (banned from baseball), Ross Barnes & Pete Browning (both played prior to 1900), and Bill Madlock. Mauer is the only catcher in history to win at least 3 batting titles, outside of the great Negro Leagues catcher Josh Gibson. Heck, a catcher has only won the batting title 7 times in MLB history, and Mauer is responsible for 3 of those cases! He is also the only catcher to win the batting title in the AL. Reds Hall of Fame catcher Ernie Lombardi also won an MVP and 2 batting titles, and another Reds catcher Bubbles Hargrave won a batting tile in 1926. The most recent instance is Buster Posey's batting title in 2012, when he also won the MVP. Excluding the Negro Leagues, Mauer's .365 batting average in 2009 is the 4th highest in a season by a catcher in history, and he had nearly double the plate appearances than the 3 catchers ahead of him. Finishing out the awards front, Mauer's 5 Silver Sluggers are tied for the 5th most by a catcher in history (again, this award has only existed since 1980). Tied with him is Hall of Famer Gary Carter, potential future Hall of Famer Buster Posey, and another all-time great catcher in Jorge Posada. Ahead of him are Hall of Fame catchers Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza, and two other great hitting catchers whose inductions I would support in Lance Parrish and Brian McCann (who will be on next year's ballot). Mauer's career WAR of 55.2 ranks 9th all-time among catchers, behind 8 Hall of Famers. He sits ahead of the average Hall of Fame catcher WAR of 53.6, making him clearly worthy of induction according to WAR. Mauer's peak was particularly impressive, as the WAR from his 7 best seasons is 39.0, which ranks 5th all-time among catchers, behind 4 Hall of Famers that you may have heard of (Carter, Bench, Piazza, Pudge). At his best, Mauer was one of the greatest catchers of all-time. Mauer's career Player Value of 212.72 is less impressive and ranks 28th among primarily catchers from 1912-2021. With 1,469 primarily catchers based on games played during this span, Mauer ranks in the 1.9%. His Batting Value of 147.60 ranks 25th. What probably hurts Mauer are his latter years as a first baseman. You can find his year by year values here by downloading the single season Minnesota Twins catcher and first base rankings. After further analysis, it was actually his latter years of still trying to catch that were his least valuable. For awards, Player Value thinks Mauer should have won 1 Hank Aaron award, 1 Gold Glove, 6 Silver Sluggers, and been a 4 time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Mauer as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 36.54%. However, the NNet sub-model does support his induction with a probability of 55.89%. The updated model also doesn't think Mauer is a Hall of Famer, but gives him a slightly higher probability at 40.15%. The updated NNet sub-model also likes Mauer slightly more and supports his induction, with a probability of 77.64%. Two of the variables that the NNet sub-model finds most important are All-Star games and singles, which Mauer fares decently at among his 2024 ballot peers that I've ran through the model, ranking 4th and 7th, respectively. Verdict: Mauer was clearly one of the best hitting catchers in history, and wasn't a defensive pushover either, winning 3 Gold Gloves and posting a positive career Fielding Value of 62.72. A catcher winning an MVP is a rare and impressive feat, and a catcher winning a batting title is even rarer, let alone 3. His peak according to WAR was clearly valuable enough for the Hall of Fame, and he still played long enough to post impressive career hits totals for a catcher. Chase Utley, 2B (2003-2018) Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers Utley rounds out my hypothetical 10 person ballot and is the 3rd newcomer this year after Beltre and Mauer. I don't think I'm as high on Utley as others, and might have trouble finding a spot for him on next year's ballot given the arrivals of Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia, particularly if not many players are inducted this year. Parsing Utley out from other contemporaries like Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia, and Ian Kinsler is a little difficult. As I've referenced before, Utley was a power hitting second baseman; do you know how rare that was in the National League? His 259 home runs rank 7th all-time among second basemen, behind 4 Hall of Famers, PED user Robinson Cano, and Jeff Kent. However, Kent is the all-time home run leader among second basemen and fell off the ballot last year, so according to BBWAA standards this apparently isn't good enough for induction. Utley played 16 seasons but only about 10 of those seasons were really complete, so most of his other career totals don't compare favorably to other second basemen. What will matter is how good he was during those years. Like with Carlos Beltran, I will note Utley's impressive career stolen base percentage of 87.5%, which ranks 3rd all-time after setting some minimum playing requirements. He also has about double the stolen base attempts of the 2 players ahead of him. Utley stole 154 bases and was caught just 22 times. In 2009, he stole 23 bases without being caught once. That is the 2nd most steals in a season without being caught, and stood as the record for 14 years until Trea Turner broke it this past season. In terms of awards, Utley's 4 Silver Sluggers are tied for the 4th most by a second baseman (award since 1980). Ahead of him are Hall of Famer Ryne Sandberg, the still active Jose Altuve, and PED user Robinson Cano. Tied with him are Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar and Craig Biggio, should be Hall of Famer Lou Whitaker, second baseman home run king (and should be Hall of Famer) Jeff Kent, and the longevity king Julio Franco. Utley's 6 All-Star games are tied for the 16th most by a second baseman. With the exception of the still active Altuve, PED user Cano (who hasn't appeared on the ballot yet), and Bobby Richardson, every second baseman with 7 or more All-Star games has been inducted. Players tied with Utley include should be Hall of Famer Bobby Grich and Negro League players Piper Davis, Pat Patterson, and Sammy Hughes. Also tied with him are Willie Randolph (who I wouldn't mind seeing inducted), Johnny Temple (who actually only had 4 distinct All-Star seasons), and Gil McDougald (who had an impressive but short 10 season career). Utley's career WAR of 64.5 ranks 15th all-time among second baseman, behind 10 Hall of Famers, should be Hall of Famers Whitaker and Grich, PED user Cano, and perhaps another should be Hall of Famer in Randolph. While Utley may not be the best second baseman not currently in Cooperstown, that doesn't mean he isn't worthy. Like Mauer, Utley's peak ranks even higher, as the WAR from his 7 best seasons of 49.3 ranks 9th all-time among second baseman, behind 7 Hall of Famers and PED user Cano. Utley's peak was even more impressive if we get a little narrower. From 2005 to 2009, Utley had 5 consecutive seasons of 7+ WAR, which is tied for the 4th most 7+ WAR seasons by a second baseman in history. The only 3 players with more are all Hall of Famers in Rogers Hornsby, Nap Lajoie, and Eddie Collins. The 2 players tied with him are also Hall of Famers in Joe Morgan and Charlie Gehringer. At his peak, Utley was clearly one of the best second basemen of all-time. Utley's career Player Value of 378.24 is slightly less impressive, and ranks as the 23rd most by a primarily second baseman from 1912-2021. Outside of positional comparisons, that Player Value is still very high, however. That amount would rank him 10th among left fielders or right fielders, 11th among catchers, 12th among center fielders, and 13th among third basemen. Player Value believes that some positions just have more variability in the quality of players that play them. I have 1,033 primarily second basemen based on games played during this span, which puts Utley in the top 2.2%. Utley's Batting Value of 248.88 ranks 18th among second basemen. Regarding awards, Player Value thinks Utley should have won 1 Hank Aaron award, 1 Gold Glove, 5 Silver Sluggers, and been a 7 time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Utley as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 8.92%, with none of the sub-models supporting his case either. The updated model feels similarly, giving him a slightly lower probability at 8.04% and again no support from any of the sub-models. Verdict: At first glance, Utley's career numbers don't stand out as much compared to some of his peers. However, after honing in on his peak years, it's clear that Utley was one of the greatest second basemen in history, and I think that impressive peak is enough to merit his induction. Players I Think Are Close OR That I Would Vote For If More Than 10 Votes Were Allowed: Victor Martinez, C/DH/1B (2002-2018) Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Boston Red Sox Martinez is a new addition to the ballot this year that I initially had in more solid "yes" territory but have slotted down a little after some more consideration. The reason I liked Martinez was that he has solid batting numbers for a catcher. His 2,153 career hits rank 6th among catchers behind 3 Hall of Famers (both Pudges and Ted Simmons), a likely future Hall of Famer (Yadier Molina), and Jason Kendall. His 423 career doubles rank 4th, behind 2 Hall of Famers (Rodriguez, Simmons) and fellow new ballot member Joe Mauer, who appears to have decent induction odds. His 246 career home runs currently are tied for 14th, with 8 Hall of Famers ahead of him. Among players that spent at least 40% of their time at catcher and that had at least 5,000 career plate appearances, Martinez's career batting average of .295 ranks 13th, with 8 Hall of Famers ahead of him along with Mauer, Buster Posey, Joe Torre (inducted as a manager but really worthy as a player as well), and Manny Sanguillen. However, he ranks slightly worse in more accurate measurements of offensive quality like slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. The reason I've lowered my opinion of Martinez slightly is because he wasn't entirely a catcher. He appeared in 1,973 games in his career, with 858 games as a catcher (43.5%), 869 games as a DH (44%), and 214 games as a first baseman (10.8%). So you can argue that he was really primarily a DH during his career, or at least half DH half catcher. Compared to the 5 players in the Hall of Fame that spent at least 40% of their games at DH, Martinez doesn't quite stack up, ranking last in hits, HR, RBI, OPS, and WAR. While Molitor was also about a 44% DH, Frank Thomas was about a 56% DH and spent the rest of his time at first base, another offensive heavy position. Harold Baines was about a 58% DH and spent most of his other time in right field, Edgar Martinez was about a 68% DH and spent most of his other time at third, and David Ortiz was a whopping 84% DH and spent most of his other time at first. So while Martinez may not compare as well to the current Hall of Fame DHs, most of them spent notably more time at DH and also played more offensively inclined positions when not a DH. As another point of comparison, Joe Mauer was really only about 50% catcher, 32% first baseman, and 17% DH, so comparing his career stats to other players like Ivan Rodriguez who was 95% a catcher may also be flawed in the same way. Martinez's career WAR of 32.0 ranks just 34th among catchers, but his Rbat of 176 ranks 16th behind effectively 11 Hall of Famers, 2 contemporaries in Mauer and Posey, and Gene Tenace. Martinez was basically a catcher from 2002 to 2011, during which he accumulated 24.2 of his WAR (76%), which ranks as the 3rd highest WAR by a catcher during that span, behind Mauer and Jorge Posada. If we focus on just 2004 to 2010, he ranks 2nd. If we look at the entire 2000s decade from 2000 to 2009, he ranks 6th despite not playing any games at all in 2000 or 2001 and only playing a total of 61 games in 2002 and 2003. Despite appearing in slightly more games as a DH, Martinez accumulated most of his value as a catcher and was one of the best catchers in the league while doing so. Martinez's career Player Value of 85.93 ranks just 101st among primarily catchers (by value) from 1912-2021. His career Batting Value of 102.37 ranks more favorably at 45th, but his Fielding Value of -15.47 ranks as the 16th worse. Martinez was mainly a catcher while in Cleveland and Boston, during which he posted 97.0 of his Player Value and 104.5 of his Batting Value. In Detroit he was mainly a DH, during which he posted a -11.1 Player Value and -2.2 Batting Value. Player Value agrees that Martinez should have won 2 Silver Sluggers, but thinks he should have been a 4-time All-Star rather than 5-time. With 1,469 primarily catchers during this span based on games played, Martinez would rank in the top 6.9%. By value, Martinez would rank 8th among DHs during this span, behind 2 Hall of Famers in Ortiz and Martinez. With around 152 primarily DHs based off of games played, Martinez would rank 16th, placing in the top 10.5%, behind the previously mentioned 5 Hall of Fame DHs. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Martinez as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 9.28%, with no support from any of the 4 sub-models. The updated model also doesn't support his case, but does give him a higher probability at 11.71%. None of the updated sub-models support Martinez for induction either. Verdict: I'm mainly a "no" for now on Martinez because I only get 10 spots. I hope he reaches the 5% necessary to keep him on the ballot for next year. According to the Ballot Tracker as of this writing, that doesn't seem to be the case given that he currently has just 1 vote out of the 185 publicly shared ballots (0.5%). This won't be my first time somewhat supporting a substantially failed candidate, as in 2022 I put Prince Fielder in this same category and he ended up receiving just 2 out of 394 votes (also 0.5%). Even in the hypothetical scenario where Martinez does make it to next year's ballot, it may be hard giving him my hypothetical vote depending on who all gets inducted this year, as next year's ballot will introduce some more solid first year candidates like Ichiro Suzuki, CC Sabathia, and several others. I think Martinez is an underrated candidate and was one of the best catchers of his time, but that others allow his later years as a DH distort that reality. Bobby Abreu, RF (1996-2014) Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Houston Astros, New York Mets, Los Angeles Dodgers Abreu retains his spot in my holdover list from last year. He remains a player that I don't entirely feel comfortable supporting given the fact that I never thought of him as a Hall of Famer while he was playing and I was growing up. As I noted last year, I will acknowledge that his best seasons from 1998-2004 were when I was either not alive or still quite young. The statistical case for Abreu does grow more and more on me each year, but this year I don't think he's one of the 10 most deserving players. Abreu's career WAR of 60.2 ranks 20th among primarily right fielders. Ahead of him are 14 Hall of Famers, PED user and fellow ballot member Gary Sheffield, banned from baseball Shoeless Joe Jackson, still active Mookie Betts, and 2 players that I think should be in the Hall of Fame in Dwight Evans and Reggie Smith. He sits just above Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero and future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki. Clearly, according to WAR, Abreu is worthy. How is that the case, when his name doesn't scream stardom and his accolades only consist of 2 All-Star games, 1 Gold Glove, and 1 Silver Slugger? The answer is that Abreu produced value on ways that largely went unseen and under appreciated, such as walks. His career OBP of .395 ranks 7th among players that spent at least 50% of their time in right field and that had at least 5,000 career plate appearances. Ahead of him are 5 Hall of Famers and Elmer Valo, who had nearly 4,000 fewer plate appearances than Abreu. While Abreu wasn't necessarily devoid of power (288 career HR and 2 seasons of 30+), he did lack the power typically requested by right fielders, without making up for it with an elite glove like Ichiro or Clemente. Abreu's extra-base hit of choice were doubles, and his 574 career doubles are the 4th most by a right fielder behind 3 Hall of Famers. His 1,476 career walks also rank 4th among right fielders, behind 3 Hall of Famers. His 400 career stolen bases rank 7th among right fielders, with the 6 players ahead of him including 2 Hall of Famers and Ichiro. Abreu's career Player Value of 266.10 ranks 21st among primarily right fielders from 1912-2021. Ahead of him are 15 Hall of Famers and again the special caveats of Sheffield, Betts, Reggie Smith, and Dwight Evans, as well as an additional PED user in Sammy Sosa. Player Value groups Shoeless Joe Jackson with the left fielders. Vladimir Guerrero and Enos Slaughter have higher Player Values than Abreu despite having lower WARs, which makes me more partial to Abreu's Player Value ranking given that those 2 players are both Hall of Famers. With 992 primarily right fielders based on games played during this span, Abreu ranks in the top 2.1%. Abreu's Batting Value of 237.53 ranks 17th, behind 12 Hall of Famers, Sheffield, Smith, Evans, and Bryce Harper. His Baserunning Value of 17.06 ranks 5th, behind Ichiro, Bobby Bonds, Hall of Famer Kiki Cuyler, and Kirk Gibson. Player Value agrees that Abreu should have been a 2-time All-Star and won 1 Gold Glove, but doesn't think he should have won a Silver Slugger. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Abreu as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 34.41%. However, the incredibly decisive FDA sub-model does support Abreu's case with a probability of 99.86%, though this is the least accurate in terms of AUC of the initial sub-models. I mentioned under Andruw Jones that this model likes the RF/G difference from positional average variable, but another variable it likes is the difference between a player's stolen bases and caught stealings. Abreu stole 400 bases in his career and was caught just 128 times, putting him at a net gain of 272. That ranks 3rd on the 2024 ballot members that I ran through the model, behind Reyes and Rollins. Of the 264 players in the initial dataset that I trained the model with, only 20 of them have a higher SB difference than Abreu, including 12 Hall of Famers. The updated model also doesn't predict Abreu as a Hall of Famer, giving him a slightly higher probability of 35.68%. Abreu loses his FDA sub-model support, but gains support from the SVM sub-model which gives him a probability of 54.09%, though the updated SVM sub-model took a big hit in accuracy with a much lower AUC of .8544, the least accurate of the updated sub-models. Abreu doesn't stand out in any of that updated sub-models 6 most important variables (AS, R, 1B, RBI, R per season, AVG), so it could just be a combination of fairing decently in several categories. Verdict: The name Bobby Abreu doesn't quite have that Hall of Fame "ring" to it, which is why I avoided placing him on my hypothetical ballot in previous years. At this point I think I am a "yes" on Abreu, and admittedly regret not having him on my ballot last year when I only used up 9 of the 10 spots. This year, however, my 10 spots are full and I'm not currently willing to place Abreu over any of the over 10 players. It has become more clear that Abreu was one of the best offensive right fielders in history and obtained that value by walking, hitting doubles, and stealing rather than hitting home runs and being a great defender like is more common for right fielders. I do think some people hype up Abreu a little too much and claim him as superior to Tony Gwynn and Vladimir Guerrero; Player Value does a good job of refuting that while still showing that Abreu is worthy of induction. Jimmy Rollins, SS (2000-2016) Philadelphia Phillies, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox Rollins was on my list of close players each of the last 2 seasons, and stays in that spot this year. This year I'm advocating for his long time teammate and double play partner Chase Utley to get inducted, but not him. You can view a comparison of these 2 players here. While Rollins has more hits, steals, and Gold Gloves, Utley clearly has the higher WAR along with more home runs, RBI, and better offensive rate stats across the board. Even so, these 2 guys are close and had their careers tied close enough together that inducting one and not the other may be an injustice, similar to how Alan Trammel is currently a Hall of Famer but Lou Whitaker isn't. Rollins' career WAR of 47.6 ranks 26th in history among shortstops, but the only non-Hall of Famers ahead of him are the PED using A-Rod, 19th century players Bill Dahlen and Jack Glasscock, and then Bert Campaneris and Jim Fregosi. So while Rollins isn't quite at the Hall of Fame edge for WAR, he is close. His 2,455 career hits rank 14th among shortstops, behind 10 Hall of Famers, A-Rod, Dahlen, and fellow ballot member Omar Vizquel. His 511 career doubles rank 7th among shortstops, behind 5 Hall of Famers and A-Rod. His 470 career stolen bases rank 11th among shortstops, behind 5 Hall of Famers, Dahlen, Campaneris, Maury Wills, Herman Long, and fellow ballot member Jose Reyes. His 4 Gold Gloves are tied for the 7th most by a shortstop, along with Brandon Crawford, Tony Fernandez, Andrelton Simmons, and Alan Trammel, only 1 of which is in the Hall of Fame. Ahead of this group are 3 Hall of Famers, Vizquel, Dave Concepcion, and Mark Belanger. Rollins is also one of 14 shortstops to be named MVP, along with 6 Hall of Famers and 2 PED users in A-Rod and Miguel Tejada. Looking at the 2000s decade, Rollins ranks 3rd in WAR among primarily shortstops from 2000-2009, behind Derek Jeter and Tejada, despite hardly playing in the 2000 season. Focusing instead on perhaps Rollins' peak from 2001-2012, he ranks 2nd behind only Jeter. Rollins' career Player Value of 229.21 ranks just 52nd among primarily shortstops from 1912-2021. There are 955 primarily shortstops based on games played during this span, putting Rollins in the top 5.4%. His Batting Value of 147.62 ranks 31st, while his Fielding Value of 52.60 ranks 162nd. His Baserunning Value of 28.98 ranks 6th, behind 3 Hall of Famers, Campaneris, and Wills. Player Value thinks Rollins should have just been a 1-time All-Star and that he shouldn't have won any Gold Gloves, but agrees that he deserved 1 Silver Slugger. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 34.75%. However, the SVM sub-model, which was the most accurate initial sub-model in terms of AUC, does predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer with a probability of 72.69%. Two variables this sub-model likes are runs and singles, which Rollins ranks 5th and 4th in respectively among his 2024 ballot peers that I ran through the model. That sub-model also values defensive innings, which Rollins ranks 3rd in. Omar Vizquel takes the top 1-2 spos in a lot of those categories (and this was the sub-model that likes Vizquel the most), but Rollins still receives a higher probability than Vizquel due to his better stats for some of the other variables. The updated model also doesn't predict Rollins as a Hall of Famer, but has him pretty close at a probability of 46.83%. Rollins retains his support from the SVM sub-model, which gives him an even higher probability of 87.37%, though again this is now the least accurate updated sub-model in terms of AUC. That updated sub-model likes the runs scored per season variable, which Rollins ranks 2nd in behind only Reyes, with 101.19. He also gains the support of the updated NNet sub-model, which gives him a probability of 57.84%. That sub-model also likes the runs, singles, and runs per season variables. Verdict: Similar to Abreu, you can split the shortstop statistical leaders in enough ways for Rollins to have a solid argument, given that he ranks well in terms of hits, doubles, and stolen bases. Utley getting inducted may also boost his chances so that both members of the tag team can be enshrined. He also appears to have been the best shortstop in the NL during his prime, which is another good case for induction. Nontheless, I didn't see Rollins as one of the top 10 guys on the ballot this year so he doesn't get a hypothetical vote, but could in future years. I do think the fact that some similar players like Campaneris and Wills aren't inducted is something that hurts his argument. Mark Buehrle, SP (2000-2015) Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins Buehrle rounds out the list of guys that I wouldn't vote for this year but would like to see on next year's ballot. This was the same deal when I discussed his candidacy last year. He is the winner of 4 Gold Gloves, one of only 13 pitchers in history that can claim such a feat. Among the other 12 players are 6 Hall of Famers (Maddux, Kaat, Gibson, Mussina, Niekro, Palmer) and likely future Hall of Famer Zack Greinke. Buehrle lacks the starting pitcher Hall of Fame clinchers of 300 wins or 3,000 strikeouts. In fact, Buehrle failed to even reach 2,000 strikeouts, as his 1,870 career strikeouts rank just 107th among starters in history. Since the start of the expansion era in 1961, only 5 pitchers out of 54 total have managed to throw at least 3,000 innings and strike out less batters than Buehrle, which is a strong condemnation of his strike out effectiveness. Buehrle's career ERA of 3.81 is also not particularly impressive, ranking 43rd out of those same 54 pitchers. Jack Morris is the only Hall of Famer with a higher ERA (3.90) and at least 3,000 innings pitched across all of history, and Morris was a particularly controversial inductee. Buehrle's 214 career wins rank 94th among starters, but are the 11th most in the Wild Card era behind 3 Hall of Famers, 3 future Hall of Famers, and a PED user. While we may think of innings pitched as simply a measure of opportunity, they actually are a measure of success in some way since they require the pitcher getting the batter out. To that end, Buehrle has the 6th most innings pitched in the Wild Card era. Buehrle's career WAR of 59.1 ranks more favorably as the 65th highest among starters in history. While that may sound unimpressive, ahead of him are 46 Hall of Famers. Of the 18 non-Hall of Fame pitchers with a higher WAR, there are 5 pitchers that played in the 1800s, 4 pitchers that are still active and are all likely future Hall of Famers, another likely future Hall of Famer that hasn't yet appeared on the ballot in CC Sabathia, 3 PED users (Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Kevin Brown), and Curt Schilling who wasn't elected because of his character clause issues. The only remaining pitchers with a higher WAR than Buehrle that aren't in Cooperstown are Rick Reuschel, Luis Tiant, Tommy John, and David Cone, each of which I think has a solid case for induction. Even though Buehrle may not be the absolute Hall of Fame WAR border, he does rank ahead of 25 Hall of Fame pitchers (not counting Babe Ruth). During the course of his career from 2000 to 2015, Buehrle ranked 2nd in WAR behind only Hall of Famer Roy Halladay. Since 2000, he ranks 7th in WAR behind Halladay and 5 likely future Hall of Famers. Buehrle's career Player Value of 82.18 ranks just 128th among primarily starting pitchers from 1912-2021. With 2,296 primarily starters based on games played during this span, Buehrle ranks in the top 5.6%. His Fielding Value of 84.14 ranks 24th, but his Pitching Value sits at a very mediocre 12.57. Player Value thinks Buehrle should have gone to just 3 All-Star games rather than 5, and that he should have won 2 Gold Gloves rather than 4. Since Buehrle was a pitcher, the Hall of Fame model wasn't run on him. Verdict: Buehrle probably remains the one player that I remain the most torn on. If inducted, he would be an extreme Hall of Fame starting pitcher example in terms of career strikeouts and ERA. His career wins totals are alright, but his accolades are relatively lacking with no Cy Youngs and only 5 All-Star appearances. However, his innings pitched are impressive and his career WAR also suggests that he could be worthy. The fact that he ranks 2nd in WAR during his career is especially moving, but the fact that his Player Value doesn't also stand out has me not fully convinced that Buehrle is ultimately deserving. Player Value greatly prefers his contemporaries of Tim Hudson, Johan Santana, and Felix Hernandez. Players I Wouldn't Vote For Due To PED Usage But That Are Otherwise Deserving: Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B (1994-2016) New York Yankees, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers Statistically, A-Rod is clearly deserving of induction. We've mentioned the 500 home run and 3,000 hit marks, and he's cleared both of those easily. His 696 home runs are the 6th most all-time and the most by a primarily shortstop, while his 3,115 hits are the 23rd most all-time and the 5th most by a primarily shortstop. His 2,086 career RBI are the 4th most all-time and the most by a primarily shortstop. His career WAR of 117.5 is the 12th highest all-time and the 2nd most by a primarily shortstop. A-Rod won 10 Silver Sluggers in his career, 7 of which were as a shortstop, which is the 3rd most by a shortstop behind Hall of Famers Barry Larkin and Cap Ripken Jr. His 14 All-Star games are tied with Hall of Famers Derek Jeter and Ernie Banks for the 3rd most by a shortstop, behind Hall of Famers Ozzie Smith and Cal Ripken Jr. He is one of just 11 players in history to win at least 3 MVP awards, with 7 of the other 10 being in the Hall of Fame. The exceptions are the still-active Mike Trout, fellow PED user Barry Bonds, and Albert Pujols who has yet to appear on the ballot. A-Rod's career Player Value of 820.88 is the most by a primarily shortstop and one of the highest across all positions from 1912-2021. With 955 primarily shortstops based on games played during this span, A-Rod ranks in the top 0.1%. His Player Value as a shortstop specifically is 571.32, which ranks 6th. His Batting Value of 656.04 also ranks 1st, while his Baserunning Value of 24.26 ranks 9th. Player Value thinks A-Rod should have won 7 Hank Aaron awards, 11 Silver Sluggers, and been an 11 time All-Star. Each of those are the most by a shortstop in Player Value's redistribution of awards. The Hall of Fame model was not built to run on PED users, since their reason for lack of induction is outside of the confines of their statistical/accolade worthiness. As such, I did not run A-Rod through the model and have no results to share on that front. Verdict: As I wrote last year, I don't think A-Rod deserves induction because of his PED usage. I do think that like Bonds and Clemens, A-Rod's greatness stands out even more than his fellow otherwise-Hall-of-Fame-worthy-PED-users like Sosa, McGwire, etc., but A-Rod also cheated when the rules were more clearly defined and testing was implemented. If Bonds and Clemens aren't in, then A-Rod shouldn't be in either. Once more obvious PED users begin getting inducted, then A-Rod should get in as well. Manny Ramirez, LF/RF (1993-2011) Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Tampa Bay Rays Statistically, Manny is also clearly deserving of induction. We've mentioned the 500 home run automatic qualifier, and Manny's 555 career home runs rank as the 15th most all-time, behind 8 Hall of Famers, 5 fellow PED users (Bonds, A-Rod, Sosa, McGwire, Palmeiro), and Pujols who hasn't appeared on a ballot yet. Manny's 1,831 career RBI rank as the 20th most all-time, again behind only Hall of Famers, fellow PED users, or obvious future Hall of Famers yet to appear on the ballot. Among primarily left fielders, Manny's home runs rank 2nd all-time behind fellow PED user Bonds, and his RBI rank 4th all-time behind Bonds and Hall of Famers Ted Williams and Carl Yastrzemski. Manny's career WAR of 69.3 ranks 8th among primarily left fielders, behind Bonds, Pete Rose, and 5 Hall of Famers. His 12 All-Star games are the 6th most among primarily left fielders, behind Bonds, Pete Rose, and 3 Hall of Famers, one of which (Minnie Minoso) benefited from some of the two All-Star game years and really only had 9 All-Star seasons, including his 2 Negro League All-Star seasons. Manny won 9 Silver Sluggers, 8 of which were as an outfielder, ranking 3rd all-time among outfielders behind Bonds and the still-active Mike Trout. His career OPS of .996 effectively ranks 3rd among primarily left fielders behind Bonds and Hall of Famer Ted Williams. In terms of his actual on the field production, Manny Ramirez is clearly the best left fielder not currently in Cooperstown. Manny's career Player Value of 445.77 ranks 6th among primarily left fielders from 1912-2021, behind Bonds and 4 Hall of Famers. With 1,101 primarily left fielders based on games played during that span, Manny ranks in the top 0.5%. His Batting Value of 485.22 ranks even better at 3rd, behind only Bonds and Hall of Famer Ted Williams. Player Value thinks the actual voters did pretty well during Manny's career, awarding him with 11 All-Star games and 9 Silver Sluggers. One poor spot on Manny's career is his defensive ability, as his Fielding Value of -32.84 ranks as the 11th worst among primarily left fielders. WAR agrees with this blemish, as his Rfield of -129 is the 2nd worst in history by someone who played at least 40% of their games in left field. Since it's the PED usage that is blocking Manny from induction, I didn't run him through the Hall of Fame model. Verdict: Again as stated last year and as is the case with A-Rod, Manny deserves to be inducted based on his stats and accolades, but I don't think he should be inducted due to his PED usage. Once inducting PED users truly becomes the norm, then Manny should be inducted. Gary Sheffield, RF/LF/3B/DH (1988-2009) Florida Marlins, Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, San Diego Padres, Detroit Tigers, New York Mets Statistically, Sheffield is also clearly deserving of induction. Again, we've mentioned that 500 home run automatic qualifier mark, and Sheffield's 509 career homers rank 27th all-time behind 18 Hall of Famers, 6 fellow PED users, and 2 players not yet on the ballot (Pujols and Cabrera). His home run total ranks 7th among primarily right fielders, behind 5 Hall of Famers and fellow PED user Sammy Sosa. His 1,702 RBI also rank 7th among right fielders, behind 6 Hall of Famers. His 2,689 career hits rank 18th among right fielders, behind 14 Hall of Famers, Dave Parker, Rusty Staub, and future Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki who hasn't yet appeared on the ballot. Sheffield's WAR of 60.5 ranks 19th among right fielders, behind 14 Hall of Famers, Mookie Betts (still active), Shoeless Joe Jackson (banned), Dwight Evans, and Reggie Smith. His 9 All-Star games are tied for 9th among right fielders, along with Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero and Rocky Colavito (who benefitted from seasons with multiple All-Star games). Every right fielder with more All-Star games is in the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Ichiro. Sheffield is one of just 5 players that spent 40% of their games in right field with over 10,000 plate appearances and an OPS above .900; joining him are inner-circle Hall of Famers in Babe Ruth, Mel Ott, Hank Aaron, and Frank Robinson. Sheffield's career Player Value of 377.14 ranks 10th among primarily right fielders from 1912-2021. Ahead of him are 8 Hall of Famers and Dwight Evans, who should also be a Hall of Famer. With 992 primarily right fielders based on games played during this span, Sheffield ranks in the top 1%. His Batting Value of 419.12 is even more impressive and ranks 6th, behind 5 Hall of Famers. Like Ramirez, Sheffield struggled defensively; his Fielding Value of -49.19 ranks dead last among right fielders. WAR agrees that Sheffield was the worst defensive right fielder in history, as his Rfield of -195 also ranks dead last among players that spent at least 40% of their games in right field. Across all positions, his Rfield ranks as the 2nd lowest in history, ahead of only Derek Jeter. Since it's the PED usage that is blocking Sheffield from induction, I didn't run him through the Hall of Fame model. Verdict: As stated last year, Sheffield statistically is worthy of Cooperstown but I don't think he should be inducted due to his PED usage. Sheffield is in his last year on the ballot and thus far has been given the benefit that final year candidates historically receive. I don't think Sheffield should be the first clear-cut PED user in the Hall of Fame, and that his induction should only occur after players like Bonds, Clemens, or A-Rod. Andy Pettitte, SP (1995-2013) New York Yankees, Houston Astros Pettitte is the one player here that I don't think is an obvious statistical Hall of Famer, but I probably would consider him worthy if not for his PED usage. He didn't reach any of the clear pitching milestones, but did amass 256 wins and 2,448 strikeouts in his career. That win total is still good for 43rd all-time, with only 8 players ahead of him not in the Hall of Fame. One of those 8 is fellow PED user Roger Clemens, and another one is the still-active Justin Verlander. Four of those 8 played mainly before 1900, when wins were much easier to come by for pitchers. The two exceptions are both compiler cases in Jamie Moyer who played for 25 years until he was 49, and Tommy John who played for 26 years until he was 46. Pettitte pitched for only 18 seasons until he was 41. That strikeout total is good for 46th all-time, but with 20 pitchers ahead of him not in the Hall of Fame. We could throw out 8 pitchers that are either still active or haven't yet appeared on a ballot, as well as the PED user Clemens, but that still leaves 11 exceptions in guys like David Cone, Curt Schilling, and Mickey Lolich. Pettitte's career ERA of 3.86 could use some work; of the 60 pitchers in the live-ball era to throw at least 3,300 innings, Pettitte ranks just 53rd. Only Jack Morris has pitched as many innings with a worse ERA and made the Hall of Fame, and he threw over 500 more innings than Pettitte. Pettitte's lack of any Cy Youngs and only being a 3-time All-Star also hurt his case. Pettitte's career Player Value of 130.34 ranks just 71st among primarily starting pitchers from 1912-2021. With 2,296 primarily starters based on games played during this span, Pettitte ranks in the top 3.1%. His Pitching Value of 100.84 ranks 68th. Player Value agrees that Pettitte never deserved a Cy Young, but thinks he should have been to 4 All-Star games. As a PED-using pitcher, Pettitte hits both the checkmarks of a player that I can't run through the Hall of Fame model, so no results to share there. Verdict: Even ignoring his PED usage, I'm not sure that Pettitte is a clear-cut Hall of Famer. What helps him, as it helped Jack Morris, is his postseason history. Pettitte's name just feels like a Hall of Famer due to being one of the "Core Four" of the Yankees' dynasty in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Two of those four are already inducted (Jeter, Rivera), and I wouldn't be opposed if Posada were inducted as well. Pettitte's 5 World Series rings are tied for the 10th most in history by a pitcher. Of the 9 pitchers with more rings, 4 are in the Hall of Fame (Ruffing, Gomez, Ford, Pennock) and a decent number of the remaining guys were mainly riding the coattails of earlier Yankees dynasties led by the likes of Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, and Berra. Regardless, Pettitte's use of PEDs makes him a clear no for me until inducting PED players becomes the norm. Players With Great Careers That Don't Quite Make The Cut: David Wright, 3B (2004-2018) New York Mets David Wright had a great initial start to his career and was certainly on track for Cooperstown. Unfortunately, various injuries derailed his chances of induction and led to an early retirement. Such is the case with many players in history, and until we begin inducting the likes of all of those players (see Al Rosen, Grady Sizemore, Nomar Garciaparra, Eric Davis, etc.), I don't understand how Wright deserves to get in. I do have a softer spot for players whose careers ended abruptly due to injuries/death, such as Hall of Famers Roy Campanella, Ralph Kiner, and Kirby Puckett, and believe that others like Thurman Munson and Albert Belle (and maybe even Prince Fielder and J.R. Richard) deserve this treatment. However, this isn't the case with Wright. Wright technically played for 14 seasons but only played 10 seasons of at least 100 games, from 2005-2014. During that span Wright was a 7-time All-Star, hit 20+ homers 6 times, won 2 Silver Sluggers, won 2 Gold Gloves, and finished top 10 in MVP voting 4 times. Due to his shorter career, Wright's counting stats are pretty low at just 1,777 hits and 242 home runs. Wright's career WAR of 49.2 also ranks just 28th among primarily third basemen. Some people like to focus on peak, but that is something WAR inherently captures; a 6 year career with seasonal WARs of 10 is just as valuable as a 20 year career with seasonal WARs of 3. Even so, if we look at the WAR from Wright's best 7 seasons, it comes out as 39.5, which still ranks only 23rd among primarily third basemen. That just simply isn't high enough to argue that Wright's prime was good enough for induction. Wright's career Player Value of 239.53 ranks just 34th among primarily third basemen from 1912-2021, while his Batting Value of 185.08 ranks 25th. With 931 primarily third basemen based on games played during this span, Wright's Player Value is in the top 3.7%. Player Value thinks Wright should have been just a 5-time All-Star, and that he should have won only 1 Silver Slugger and no Gold Gloves. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Wright as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 5.77%. None of the 4 sub-models support his case either. The updated model also doesn't predict Wright as a Hall of Famer, but does give him a higher probability at 9.89%. Again, no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Wright's shortened career wasn't valuable enough to merit induction. His career did not end due to a singular event to give him any type of additional benefit. Unfortunately, injuries ruining careers is just how it goes sometimes, and to induct Wright would mean needing to induct many other players whose careers fell off due to injuries. Bartolo Colon, SP (1997-2018) Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels, New York Mets, Oakland Athletics, Chicago White Sox, New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Montreal Expos, Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox "Big Sexy" played for many teams during his 21 season career that lasted until he was 45 years old. Due to his long career, Colon was able to put up some fairly solid counting stats with 247 career wins and 2,535 career strikeouts. That strikeout total ranks 36th all-time, and is the 15th most by a player not in the Hall of Fame. Ahead of him are 6 players that haven't yet appeared on the ballot or that are still active, as well as PED user Roger Clemens. That win total ranks slightly lower at 51st all-time, and is the 12th most by a player not in the Hall of Fame, behind Clemens and 2 players yet to be on the ballot or that are still active (Sabathia, Verlander). So while Colon is certainly up there in history, he's not quite at necessary Hall of Fame levels. A good comparison is Jamie Moyer, who had 269 wins and 2,441 strikeouts and did not get inducted after receiving just 2.4% of the vote in 2018. While Moyer was just a 1 time All-Star, Bartolo made it to 4 All-Star games and also won the Cy Young award in 2005 after leading the AL in wins. Even so, those accolades aren't quite impressive enough to deserve induction. Bartolo's career ERA of 4.12 is also too high for Hall of Fame standards; the highest ERA among current Hall of Fame pitchers with at least 100 games pitched is Jack Morris' 3.90. Colon's career WAR of 46.2 ranks just 138th among starters in history, but Hall of Famer Dizzy Dean's career WAR is right there with him. Dean stood out more in his prime, as his 7-year peak WAR of 44.1 easily surpasses Colon's 35.5. Player Value is actually not very fond of Colon at all, perhaps due to its stricter standards than WAR. Colon's career Player Value is -17.50, which is the 709th worst that I have on file from 1912-2021, or the 1,526th best if you want to look at it that way. With 2,296 primarily starters based on games played during this span, Colon is only in the top 66.5%. His career Pitching Value is -17.03 and ranks as just the 1,405th best. His career Fielding Value is 32.36, however, which ranks better at 188th. Player Value thinks Colon shouldn't have a Cy Young and that he should have only been a 3-time All-Star. Since Colon is a pitcher (and even had some PED usage), he isn't applicable for the Hall of Fame model. Verdict: Colon did win a Cy Young and put up respectable career win and strikeout totals, but his poor career ERA reveals how he just wasn't an elite enough pitcher to make it into Cooperstown and that most of his counting stats are just the result of having pitched for a long time. This is also revealed in his negative Player Value, which in those later years thinks Colon was consistently in the bottom 25% of pitchers in the league. Additionally, Colon was suspended by MLB in 2012 for using a performance-enhancing testosterone, so his PED usage makes it even clearer to me that he doesn't deserve to get in. Matt Holliday, LF (2004-2018) St. Louis Cardinals, Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics Holliday had an impressive career that included 7 All-Star games, 4 Silver Sluggers, a near .300 career batting average (.299), an .889 career OPS, 2,096 hits, and 316 home runs. He finished 2nd in NL MVP voting in 2007 after winning the batting title and leading the league in hits, doubles, RBI, and total bases. His career WAR of 44.5 ranks 36th among left fielders, while his career hits rank 33rd, home runs rank 25th, RBI rank 24th, and OPS ranks 18th (among players with at least 1,000 PA). Holliday was one of the better hitting left fielders in history on a rate basis, and while his career totals are still solid, they don't rank high enough among his positional peers to truly stand out. Holliday's career Player Value of 270.14 ranks 24th among primarily left fielders from 1912-2021. I have 1,101 primarily left fielders in terms of games played during this span, putting Holliday in the top 2.2%. In terms of time spent actually playing left field, Holliday's Player Value of 273.90 ranks 15th, behind 8 Hall of Famers and Barry Bonds. His Batting Value of 265.57 ranks 16th, behind 8 Hall of Famers, Bonds, Manny Ramirez, Pete Rose, and Shoeless Joe Jackson. Player Value agrees that Holliday should have won 4 Silver Sluggers, but thinks he should have just been a 3-time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Holliday as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 14.13%, with no support from any of the sub-models either. The updated model also doesn't predict him for induction, but does give him a higher probability of 17.87%, though still with no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Holliday had a good career, but just simply wasn't Hall of Fame caliber, and to induct him would mean needing to induct many other similar-level players. His Player Value shows that he is certainly one of the best left fielders in history that isn't currently in the Hall of Fame, but there are several others ahead of him like Bob Johnson, Ken Williams, Albert Belle, Brian Downing, Willie Wilson, and Brian Giles that would need to be inducted before he has a real argument. Jose Reyes, SS (2003-2018) New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, Miami Marlins, Colorado Rockies "The Major League Baseball Best 50" in 2008 ranked Jose Reyes as the 4th best player in the league. He was coming off of 3 straight seasons of leading the league in steals. Unfortunately, Reyes wasn't able to maintain a solid career into his mid-to-late 30s like is typically needed for induction, much like his long-time teammate David Wright. Reyes finished with a batting title, 1 Silver Slugger, 4 All-Star seasons, 2,138 hits, 131 triples (led league 4 times), and 517 steals (led league 3 times). His career WAR of 37.4 ranks just 54th among shortstops in history, while his hits rank 30th, triples rank 8th, and stolen bases rank 9th. While his speed totals are impressive, those typically aren't good enough in isolation to get a player into Cooperstown; fellow shortstops Bert Campaneris and Maury Wills had more steals and were denied induction. Reyes' career Player Value of 165.31 ranks just 77th among primarily shortstops from 1912-2021. I have 955 primarily shortstops based on games played during this span, putting Reyes in the top 8.1%. His Batting Value of 162.73 ranks 26th, and his Baserunning Value of 27.01 ranks 7th, but he generally lacked the defensive skills necessary for a Hall of Fame shortstop (also seen in his 0 Gold Gloves and career Rfield of -71). Player Value thinks he should have won 3 Silver Sluggers, but just been a 2-time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Reyes as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 19.68%, with no support from any of the sub-models. The updated model is still a "no" on Reyes, but gives him a much higher probability of 44.04%. Reyes also wins over the support of the updated SVM and NNet sub-models, with probabilities of 85.20% and 68.26%, respectively. However, the updated SVM sub-model is the least accurate of the bunch. Both of these sub-models like the runs scored per season variable, which Reyes ranks 1st with 101.84 compared to this 2024 ballot peers that I ran through the model. Verdict: Reyes was an exciting player in his prime but just couldn't maintain that level of success long enough to merit induction. He is one of the better base stealers in history, especially recently, but that skill alone isn't valuable enough to support his Hall of Fame case. Brandon Phillips, 2B (2002-2018) Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox BP had a solid career that consisted of winning 4 Gold Gloves, 1 Silver Slugger, and going to 3 All-Star games. He hit over 30 homers and stole over 30 bases in his 2007 season, a feat that has only been accomplished by 2 other second basemen in history (Ian Kinsler and Alfonso Soriano). Phillips had a fairly long career until he was 37, but didn't really start playing in the majors until he was 25. He finished with 2,029 hits, 368 doubles, 211 home runs, 951 RBI, and 209 steals. His career WAR of 28.4 ranks 69th among second basemen, while his hits rank 26th, doubles rank 28th, homers rank 15th, RBI rank 25th, and steals rank 49th. These are solid rankings in history, but not quite high enough for induction. Phillips' career Player Value of 133.43 ranks 87th among primarily second basemen from 1912-2021. There are 1,033 primarily second basemen based on games played during this span, putting Phillips in the top 8.4%. His Fielding Value of 147.59 ranks 52nd, and his Batting Value was fairly poor at -8.60. On the fielding front, I do think Phillips (like Torii Hunter) is probably underrated by metrics-based systems that don't consider the more intrinsic difficulty/excitement of making certain plays, such as his behind-the-back or between-the-legs plays. On the batting front, most of his negative value is probably from his later years, as he had 33.66 Batting Value with the Reds and 38.81 Batting Value during his prime from 2007 to 2012. Player Value thinks Phillips should have been just a 2 time All-Star and won only 1 Gold Glove, but agrees with his 1 Silver Slugger. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Phillips as a Hall of Famer, with a probability of just 3.88%, the lowest of any player on the 2024 ballot that I ran through the model. As such, none of the sub-models supported his induction either. The updated model was still a hard "no" on BP, with a marginally higher probability of 4.09%, and still no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Brandon Phillips was another exciting player that was Hall of Fame caliber in his prime from 2007 to 2012. Being a 4 or so WAR player each year for 20 seasons will almost surely get you inducted (unless you're unlucky like Lou Whitaker), but doing that for only 6 seasons doesn't make the cut. Phillips will join the likes of the Hall of Very Good and can look forward to his eventual induction into the Reds Hall of Fame. Jose Bautista, RF/3B (2004-2018) Toronto Blue Jays, Pittsburgh Pirates, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves, Kansas City Royals, Tampa Bay Rays Jose Bautista seemingly came out of nowhere in 2010, when he led the majors in homers with 54 and finished 4th in AL MVP voting. Though he had played for several teams since 2004, I had never heard of him until his breakout season and as a kid thought the sudden increase in home runs was the result of PED usage. Bautista would have been tested for such things and no news ever arose about potential PED usage, so "Joey Bats" is truly more of a Max Muncy situation where hard work, dedication, and practice seems to have paid off. Because it took time for Bautista to reach his peak form (he was 29 years old in that 2010 season), his career numbers are not as impressive. For someone that effectively debuted at 29, he did still manage to put up some solid career totals in certain areas due to his impressive seasons from 2010 to 2015. He finished with just 1,496 hits but 344 home runs and 975 RBI, as well as being a 6-time All-Star and winning 3 Silver Sluggers. Bautista's career WAR of 36.7 ranks just 66th among right fielders in history. His 7-year peak WAR of 38.2 ranks more respectably at 26th, while his homers rank 21st. From 2010-2015, Bautista led all of MLB in homers with 227 and ranked 7th in WAR with 35.3. Bautista's career Player Value of 168.62 ranks 53rd among primarily right fielders from 1912-2021, sitting between the likes of Paul O'Neil and Roger Maris. With 992 primarily right fielders based on games played during this span, Bautista is in the top 5.3%. His Batting Value of 137.78 ranks 42nd, sitting between players like Shin-Soo Choo and Dave Parker. Player Value thinks Bautista should have won one Hank Aaron award, 4 Silver Sluggers, and been a 4-time All-Star. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Bautista as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 6.00%, with no support from any of the sub-models. The updated model thinks nearly the exact same way, with a probability of 6.29%. Again, no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Bautista was a Hall of Fame caliber player for the 6 season period from 2010 to 2015. That peak was not quite good enough to merit his induction on its own; he'd have needed his 2010/2011 self in particular each year for that to be the case. It took him too many seasons to reach that peak, and he wasn't able to maintain being a quality player for long enough, in order for him to accumulate any more counting stats or value needed for induction. Hall of Very Good. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B (2004-2018) Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Boston Red Sox, Texas Rangers, New York Mets "A-Gon" had a solid 15-year MLB career that saw him amass 2,050 hits, 440 doubles, 317 homers, 1,202 RBI, 5 All-Star games, 4 Gold Gloves, and 3 Silver Sluggers. His career WAR of 43.5 ranks 43rd among first basemen, just below recent Hall of Fame inductee Gil Hodges. He is one of only 21 primarily first basemen in history that have amassed 2000+ hits and 300+ homers, a list that includes 10 Hall of Famers, 2 PED users, and 4 players either still on the ballot, yet to be on the ballot, or still active. But also in that list are the likes of Paul Konerko, Carlos Delgado, Andres Galarraga, and Lee May. Until it becomes the norm for guys like this to be inducted, Gonzalez doesn't have a solid argument. Among first basemen his hits rank 48th, homers rank 41st, RBI rank 39th, and doubles rank 31st. None of his rate stats stand out enough to push his case further like they would for Todd Helton or Joey Votto. He was solid defensively, as his Rfield of 73 ranks 11th among primarily first basemen in history. Gonzalez's career Player Value of 229.72 ranks 50th among primarily first basemen from 1912-2021, putting him between guys like Don Mattingly and Mark Grace. There are 894 primarily first basemen based on games played during this span, putting Gonzalez in the top 5.6%. His Fielding Value of 154.73 ranks 25th, between Will Clark and Anthony Rizzo (through 2021). His Batting Value of 77.03 ranks 81st, between guys like Ryan Howard and Cody Bellinger (through 2021). Player Value does not think that Gonzalez deserved any Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, or All-Star appearances in his career. The Hall of Fame model does NOT predict Gonzalez as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 7.51%, with none of the sub-models predicting him for induction either. The updated model also doesn't predict Gonzalez for induction, with a slightly lower probability of 6.34% and still no support from the sub-models. Verdict: Gonzalez was a solid defensive first baseman that could adequately hit for his position. Despite appearing in 15 seasons, he only really had 10 full seasons and thus wasn't able to accrue the offensive numbers that the Hall of Fame expects from most first basemen. He was consistently solid during those 10 years, but really needed to play for about 15 or 20 true seasons at that level to be inducted, or needed more of his 10 seasons to be like his absolute peak self from 2009 to 2011. Hall of Very Good. James Shields: James Shields, SP (2006-2018) Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres With all due respect, I do think James Shields is the lone man out on this year's ballot, and I frankly would be disappointed if even a single voter wasted one of their 10 precious votes on him rather than any of the other more deserving candidates above. Per the Ballot Tracker (as of this writing) that hasn't been the case yet for any of the voters, though a few other players have also yet to receive a vote. Shields certainly isn't the worst player to ever be on a Hall of Fame ballot; he compares well to the likes of Bronson Arroyo, Jered Weaver, and John Lackey on last year's ballot. Unfortunately, this year's ballot is pretty stacked and I don't see any way to possibly justify voting for him. Shields was just a 1 time All-Star, won 145 games, struck out 2,234 batters in his career, and had a 4.01 career ERA. None of those are really near Hall of Fame starting pitcher standards. His career WAR of 30.7 ranks as the 283rd best by a starter in history. That 1 All-Star game is tied for the 220th most, his wins rank 264th, and his ERA ranks 425th. His strikeouts do rank slightly better at 61st, with 32 Hall of Famers ahead of him, as well as about 4 more future Hall of Famers and an otherwise Hall of Famer in PED user Clemens. But there's still a long list of others ahead of him that aren't (and shouldn't be) in Cooperstown. Shields had a career Player Value of -23.68, which you can probably guess doesn't rank too well. His Pitching Value was -48.14, while his Fielding Value was 31.09. Most of his negative value comes from his last 3 seasons with the White Sox from 2016-2018, when he put up a Player Value of -58.5 and a Pitching Value of -59.5. Shields is on the Player Value single season team for the Rays for his 2011 season, and posted a Player Value of 46.49 and a Pitching Value of 26.91 while in Tampa Bay, despite his poor 2010 season. Player Value does think that Shields actually should have been a 3-time All-Star. Since Shields was a pitcher, the Hall of Fame model wasn't ran on him. Verdict: A decent 13 year career as a Major League starting pitcher, and he made over $114 million while doing so. Just not quite Hall of Fame quality. Needed to be more consistently like his 2011 self. Conclusion To summarize, here is who I would vote for on my 10-person Hall of Fame ballot:
And here are the player's I'd like to stay on the ballot to consider further next year:
Below are the probabilities from the initial and updated Hall of Fame models, as well as each of the sub-models:
You can also check out the initial dataset of players that I used for the model, as well as the updated dataset:
And for complete transparency, here is the R code that I use to run the Hall of Fame model:
The below files provides a summary of how each players ranks in terms of Player Value:
Thank you all for reading and best of luck to all of the candidates involved. Here's to hoping we get a few players inducted this go around to leave more space open for new players on the ballot next year.
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