Backstage
Menu
Statting Lineup
Blog Posts
For those that enjoy reading, seeing visuals, and having immediate access to data sources that are used. The frequency of posts varies greatly and merely depends on when I have an idea come to mind and when I have the time to address it. Feel free to contact me with any blog ideas or desires.
The 2022 MLB regular season has concluded, allowing for another implementation of my Player Value metric onto a season. If you need to get caught up on what Player Value is, you can read about it in detail here, as well as its important addendum here. I've already done a short write-up on using Batting Value to determine which players should win a Silver Slugger and the Hank Aaron Awards in 2022, which you find here. I've also done a short write-up on using Fielding Value to determine which players should win a Gold Glove and the Platinum Gloves in 2022, which you can find here. If you'd like to view another comprehensive example of applying Player Value to an MLB season, check out my rollout post on the 2010 season here. Those Player Value explanation posts can be a bit of a doozy, so here's a quick summary. A player's offensive and defensive events, such as hitting a HR and recording an out, are measured in terms of their run-value, which are derived based on the event's impact on the probability of a run scoring. These events are measured on a per opportunity basis, such as per plate appearance or per inning, to prevent players that just play more from dominating. By using a rate basis, we can see players that are able to excel, even if for a shorter period of time. Since there is still value in being able to play at a high level for a longer time, however, these per opportunity values are multiplied by the number of opportunities. This is how we balance quality and quantity. Lastly, these amounts are compared to a player's positional first-quartile. By comparing a player to his peers, we avoid the impacts of era, run scoring environment, and positional adjustments. We compare a player to his position's first-quartile because being worse than that amount means the player was one of the bottom 25% of players at his position. This is like how WAR compares to replacement level, but with this we have actual relative values based on data rather than the sort of backed-into solution that WAR's replacement level is. Here's a quick reminder of the run value weights for the relevant pitching events: non-Home Run Hit: -.37 runs Home Run: -1.29 runs Unintentional Walk: -.22 runs Intentional Walk: -.17 runs Hit By Pitch: -.24 runs Sacrifice Bunt: .22 runs Sacrifice Fly: .10 runs Strikeout: .34 runs Groundball Double Play: .75 runs Other Out: .33 runs Wild Pitch: -.26 runs Balk: -.25 runs Here's a quick reminder of the run value weights for the relevant defensive events: Putout by a non catcher or first baseman: .33 runs Unassisted Putout by a first baseman: .33 runs Non-strikeout Putout by a catcher: .33 runs Assisted Putout by a first baseman: .2*.33 = .066 runs Strikeout Putout by a catcher: .33*.33 = .1089 runs Assist: .8*.33 = .264 runs Error: -.68 runs Double Play: .10 runs Passed Ball: -.26 runs Stolen Base allowed by catcher: -.15 runs Caught Stealing by catcher: .39 runs Here's a quick reminder of the run value weights for the relevant offensive events: Single: .30 runs Double: .58 runs Triple: .91 runs Home Run: 1.29 runs Unintentional Walk: .22 runs Intentional Walk: .17 runs Hit By Pitch: .24 runs Sacrifice Bunt: -.22 runs Sacrifice Fly: -.10 runs Strikeout: -.34 runs Groundball Double Play: -.75 runs Other Out: -.33 runs Player Value is divided into 4 components: Batting Value, Fielding Value, Baserunning Value, and Pitching Value. What each is measuring should hopefully be obvious. Before we dive into dissecting each award, let's take a look at some helpful plots of Player Value for the 2022 season. First, here's Player Value amongst all positions in MLB in 2022: Higher players are more valuable offensively, as measured by their Batting Value and Baserunning Value. Further right players are more valuable defensively, as measured by their Fielding Value and Pitching Value. It is the sum of these that is total Player Value. The black diagonal line represents the breakeven point, so any player above the black line is providing positive Player Value. The further a player is above the black line, the better he is, and the further a player is below the black line, the worse he is. The green diagonal line represents the top 5% of players according to Player Value. There were 1,495 players in MLB in 2022, so this marks about the top 75 players. You can think of this line as representing an All-Star quality player. The dark green diagonal line represents the top 1% of players according to Player Value. That marks about the top 15 players, so you can think of this line as representing the quality of player that would receive some MVP votes. The red diagonal line represents the bottom 5% of players, while the dark red diagonal line represents the bottom 1% of players. Players this far down need some serious adjustments or need to get axed. To get this far down, you need to not only play poorly, but also play consistently poorly for many games. As the plot kind of shows, it's difficult for a pitcher to have the most Player Value. Pitchers don't bat anymore, taking away a significant way in which to add value to their team, as well as through baserunning. They appear in the field in far fewer innings than position players, also hindering their ability to add value with their glove. They do add value with their pitching, but they divide that pitching role with many other pitchers. It's certainly possible for a pitcher to have the most Player Value, but that would take the combination of an exceptional pitching season (or stellar batting and fielding to go with it) as well as an overall poor season by the league's position players. In 2022, Alcantara had the highest Player Value amongst pitchers, but was 28th overall. In 2010, Felix Hernandez had the highest Player Value amongst pitchers, but was 9th overall. It just depends on the season. Let's take a closer look at some of these plots by position and league. First, here's Player Value among position players in the AL: Let's do a quick position count. I see a CF/RF in Judge, DHs in Ohtani and Alvarez, more CFs in Trout and Rodriguez, two SS in Bogaerts and Seager, three 2B in Altuve, Semien, and Gimenez, a 3B in Ramirez, and two C in Kirk and Rutschman. That's some solid positional diversity! All we didn't mention was first base, and guess who that pink dot to left of Seager is... Nathaniel Lowe, first baseman for the Texas Rangers. Here's Player Value among position players in the NL: And where first base was lacking in the AL, we easily identify Goldschmidt and Freeman in the NL. Catchers in Realmuto, Smith, and d'Arnaud, 2B in McNeil and Rodgers, 3B in Machado, Arenado, and Riley, a SS/2B mix in Edman, an outfielder in Betts, etc. The point being: Player Value is not giving any particular position the short end of the stick. Here's Player Value among pitchers in the AL: This allows us to see how a pitcher's value is divided between his pitching and fielding, a view not possible in the plot of all positions above since pitching and fielding get lumped together. We see here that Justin Verlander's value is almost entirely due to his pitching, and that Zack Greinke is gaining considerable value from his fielding, albeit not enough to make up for his poor pitching. Dylan Cease, on the other hand, is losing value due to his fielding. We see a decent mix of starters and relievers, so neither of those is getting a considerable advantage. And here's Player Value among pitchers in the NL: We see that Alcantara had a slightly lower Pitching Value than Verlander, but his superior Fielding Value is what places him ahead of Verlander in the Player Value plot for all positions. Patrick Corbin had decent fielding ability, but boy, did that pitching struggle. Again, we see a good mix of starters and relievers. Alright, let's get into these awards, starting with the most controversial one first! MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS AL MVP: Aaron Judge, CF/RF/DH, New York Yankees, 83.72 Player Value Runner-up: Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Los Angeles Angels, 68.61 Player Value Judge photo courtesy of Yanks Go Yard. Ohtani photo courtesy of Fox Sports. Personally, I'd be fine with a 1979-style co-MVP here, but according to Player Value somebody's gotta win, and that somebody is Judge. Judge had an absurd offensive season. His Player Value is dominated by his 79.26 Batting Value. However, he was still able to uphold the defensive standards of CF and RF, recording a Fielding Value of 4.03. His Baserunning Value was okay at 0.43, stealing 16 bases and being caught 3 times. I'm sure we are all well aware of Judge's accomplishments this season. Nearly won a Triple Crown, leading the AL with 131 RBI. New AL single-season HR record of 62. A .311 batting average, .424 on-base percentage, 1.111 OPS, and a .458 wOBA. Led MLB with a wRAA of 82.1, an Rbat of 80, an expected wOBA of .463, an fWAR of 11.4 and a bWAR of 10.6. In terms of what matters for Player Value, Judge notably got you about 47 more homers, 2 more doubles, 5 less singles, 5 more stolen bases, 49 more unintentional walks, 19 more intentional walks, 44 more strikeouts, 73 less other outs, 6 more putouts, 2 more assists, and 2 less errors. He simply had an incredible season, well deserving of the AL MVP. Two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani also had an amazing season. As a DH, Ohtani had the 2nd highest Batting Value in MLB (behind Judge) at 59.82 and the 3rd most Player Value, 2nd in the AL (behind Judge), at 57.01. He lost some due to his poor Baserunning Value of -2.81, the worst in all of MLB. Ohtani had 11 steals but was caught 9 times, and in case you haven't heard, caught stealings are much more detrimental than stolen bases are valuable. Ohtani had an Rbat of 31 and a wRAA of 31.7, which rank 14th and 12th in MLB, respectively. His position-player fWAR was 3.8 and his position-player bWAR was 3.4. In terms of what matters for Player Value, Ohtani got you about 20 more homers, 10 more doubles, 6 more triples, 16 more singles, 5 more steals, 9 more caught stealings, 13 more unintentional walks, 75 less strikeouts, 13 more intentional walks, 6 less groundball double plays, and 53 more other outs. Note that Ohtani's fielding gets lumped in with his pitching, not his DHing, so we'll discuss that later. You may be wondering how Ohtani scores better than fellow DH Yordan Alvarez, despite Alvarez's better offensive numbers and their similar positions. For one, Alvarez was only 58% a DH, also being 42% a LF, so Alvarez himself isn't a perfect DH comparison. For another, Ohtani was 15% a pitcher, who have 0 Batting Value. Essentially the DH positional first-quartile for Ohtani is getting scaled down by .85. For me, the jury is up on this decision. Maybe we should only consider Ohtani's time as a DH when considering his batting; but also, should we really expect a 15% P and 85% DH to provide the same offensive output as a 100% DH? As a pitcher, Ohtani had the 16th highest Pitching Value in MLB at 12.73 and the 6th most in the AL. He had a somewhat poor Fielding Value of -1.13, making his Player Value of 11.60 the 24th most in MLB among pitchers. Ohtani logged 166 innings with 219 strikeouts, an ERA of 2.33, a WHIP of 1.012, and a a FIP of 2.40. He had the 6th lowest ERA and 3rd lowest FIP in MLB among qualified pitchers, and led the AL in strikeouts per 9 innings with 11.87. His bWAR as a pitcher was 6.1 and his fWAR as a pitcher was 5.6. In terms of what matters for Player Value, Ohtani allowed about 3 less nonHR hits, 7 more unintentional walks, 78 more strikeouts, 12 more wild pitches, 2 less hit by pitches, and 35 less other outs than the first-quartile starting pitcher. Defensively, he got you 1 more putout and 5 less assists. Ohtani was truly one of the best hitters and pitchers in baseball, but these are just 2 components of Player Value. Truthfully, even combining the very best primarily DH and the very best primarily pitcher still wouldn't catch Judge. Alvarez's 47.38 Batting Value and Verlander's 24.78 Pitching Value combine to 72.16, still about 11 short of Judge. We see that Ohtani is just about 4 less than this combined player, and he's just one guy. Furthermore, Ohtani is losing some value on the bases and with his glove. If instead of having about -3 Baserunning Value he were say, Myles Straw of the Cleveland Guardians who went 21/1 with his SB/CS for a 1.81 Baserunning Value, then Ohtani would be up to 70.42. If instead of having about -1 Fielding Value he were say, Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals who had a 7.53 Fielding Value, then Ohtani would be up to 79.08. If instead of having about 13 Pitching Value he were Verlander, then Ohtani would be up to 91.13. So if we take the 2nd best AL batter and combine it with the best AL pitcher, baserunner, and fielding pitcher, we can finally top Judge. As great as Ohtani was, he wasn't that. But if he could have been a better base stealer, fielder, and not thrown so many wild pitches, things could have been real close. A quick note about the value of being two-way: for one, Ohtani isn't entirely the starting pitcher that we think he is. The Angels use a 6-man rotation, not the standard 5-man. Ohtani needs the extra guy in there to be able to rest up properly. Tom Tango and WAR have dismissed the value of the extra roster spot as a rounding error, just about 0.1 or 0.2 of WAR. I agree that the roster spot is inconsequential for this race, as the roster spot is probably worth just about 2 Player Value. NL MVP: Paul Goldschmidt, 1B/DH, St. Louis Cardinals, 75.07 Player Value Runner-up: J.T. Realmuto, C, Philadelphia Phillies, 56.48 Player Value Goldschmidt photo courtesy of Sports Illustrated. This race has been less contentious, and rightly so. Goldschmidt seemed to be more of a favorite throughout the season as he also competed for a Triple Crown, with his .317 batting average finishing 3rd in the NL among qualified batters, his 35 HR finishing 5th in the NL, and his 115 RBI finishing 2nd in the NL. He had a decent Player Value split, with 45.59 Batting Value and 28.49 Fielding Value, leading his position in both. He's got an fWAR of 7.1 and a bWAR of 7.8, the 3rd most in the NL in both. The main Player Value challenger was Realmuto, but the main WAR challengers are third basemen Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado, as well as pitcher Sandy Alcantara. Alcantara's Player Value was 27.30, which was the most in the NL for pitchers, but well behind Goldschmidt. Machado is at 22.87 and Arenado is at 35.89, both solid, but also well behind Goldschmidt. Why the big differences? For Player Value, everything is relative to your position. If I lost Alcantara and had to swap him with a "meh" starting pitcher, how worse would I be? How worse would I be if I had to swap Machado or Arenado with a bottom 25% third baseman? How about if I had to swap Goldschmidt or Realmuto? Here are these guys' OPS and wOBA comparisons relative to their positional first-quartile: Goldschmidt: .981 vs .711, .419 vs .311 Realmuto: .820 vs .604, .354 vs .270 Machado: .898 vs .695, .382 vs .304 Arenado: .891 vs .694, .381 vs .304 Here are these guys' FP% and RF9 comparisons relative to their positional first-quartile: Goldschmidt: .999 vs .992, 9.48 vs 8.07 Realmuto: .993 vs .992, 9.54 vs 8.59 (also .4412 vs .2023 CS%) Machado: .966 vs .961, 2.44 vs 2.65 Arenado: .968 vs .961, 2.95 vs 2.65 So I don't care that Machado and Arenado are better hitters than Realmuto in an absolute sense, because they play different positions. Realmuto's Player Value was also very well split, with 30.55 Batting Value, 23.19 Fielding Value, and even 2.73 Baserunning Value (21 for 22 on SB as a catcher, holy cow!). Arenado was decently split too, with 23.98 Batting Value and 12.76 Fielding Value. Machado, however, is offensively focused with 26.86 Batting Value and -4.42 Fielding Value. Machado has 7.4 fWAR and 6.8 bWAR. Arenado has 7.3 fWAR and 7.9 bWAR. Realmuto has 6.5 fWAR and bWAR. Some offensive highlight comparisons are that Goldschmidt would get you +17 HR, +16 2B, +23 1B, +32 uBB, and -23 other outs than his first-quartile. Realmuto would get you +13 HR, +23 1B, +21 SB, and +9 HBP. Arenado would get you +15 HR, +17 2B, +12 1B, and -44 SO. Machado would get you +17 HR, +11 2B, +21 1B, and +9 IBB. Some defensive highlight comparisons are that Machado would get you -2 PO, -5 A, +4 E, and +5 DP than his first-quartile. Arenado would get you -9 PO, +65 A, +5 E, and +21 DP. Realmuto would get you +8 non-strikeout PO, +10 A, +5 E, +5 DP, -1 PB, -8 SB, +16 CS, and +112 strikeout PO. Lastly, Goldschmidt would get you +16 unassisted PO, +31 A, -3 E, -36 DP, and +141 assisted PO. CY YOUNGS NL Cy Young: Sandy Alcantara, SP, Miami Marlins, 19.20 Pitching Value Runner-up: Zac Gallen, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks, 18.28 Pitching Value Alcantara photo courtesy of NBC Miami. This hopefully shouldn't come as too big of a shocker to anyone. Alcantara was 14-9 in about 228 innings pitched with a 2.29 ERA and 2.99 FIP while striking out 207 guys. The first-quartile starter had a 2.89 ERA and a 3.09 FIP. Gallen went 12-4 in 184 innings with a 192 strikeouts, a 2.54 ERA, and a 3.05 FIP. Alcantara has an fWAR of 5.7 and a bWAR of 8.1, while Gallen has an fWAR of 4.3 and a bWAR of 5.1. The main WAR challenger is Aaron Nola of the Phillies, with a 6.3 fWAR and a 6.0 bWAR. Nola finished with a Pitching Value of 14.25, the 7th most in the NL. Also ahead of him were Tony Gonsolin, Spencer Strider, Carlos Rodon, and Max Fried. Nola went 11-13 in 205 innings, striking out 235 with an ERA of 3.25 and a FIP of 2.58. Alcantara got you +14 SO, -2 uBB, +4 HBP, +7 GIDP, +15 other outs, +2 nonHR hits, and -4 HR. Gallen got you +36 SO, +6 uBB, +8 HBP, +1 GIDP, +1 other outs, -20 nonHR hits, -1 HR, and +3 WP. Nola got you +61 SO, -18 uBB, +4 HBP, -3 GIDP, -8 other outs, +9 nonHR hits, and +1 HR. AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, SP, Houston Astros, 24.78 Pitching Value Runner-up: Emmanuel Clase, CP, Cleveland Guardians, 18.05 Pitching Value Verlander photo courtesy of Bleacher Report. This also probably doesn't come as too big of a surprise. Verlander went 18-4 in 175 innings with 185 strikeouts, a 1.75 ERA, and a 2.49 FIP. Clase was the best reliever in MLB, and also the best reliever that Player Value has examined thus far (that is to say, better than all of the 2010 relievers in Pitching Value, as well). He went 3-4 with 42 saves in 72 innings with 77 strikeouts, a 1.37 ERA, and a 1.98 FIP. Recall that while the first-quartile starter ERA was 2.89 and FIP was 3.09, the first-quartile reliever ERA was 2.78 and FIP was 3.03. Verlander has an fWAR of 6.1 and a bWAR of 5.9, while Clase has an fWAR of 2.4. and a bWAR of 2.8. Clase has the 2nd highest fWAR among relievers, and the most in the AL, but doesn't even reach the top 30 of starters. The fact that he came in 2nd here is what I believe to be a testament to Player Value's ability to not be biased towards certain positions. fWAR loves Kevin Gausman as the runner-up at 5.7, whom Pitcher Value disagrees strongly with at -4.73 (bWAR has him at 3.0). bWAR loves Dylan Cease as the favorite at 6.1, whom Pitcher Value has at 10.26 (fWAR has him at 4.4). Cease went 14-8 in 184 innings with 227 strikeouts, an ERA of 2.20, and a FIP of 3.10. Gausman went 12-10 in 174 innings with 205 strikeouts, an ERA of 3.36, and a FIP of 2.38. Verlander got you +37 SO, -10 uBB, -2 GIDP, +7 other outs, -15 nonHR hits, and -3 HR. Clase got you +13 SO, -11 uBB, +6 GIDP, +11 other outs, -6 nonHR hits, -1 HR, and +3 WP. Cease got you +71 SO, +35 uBB, -6 GIDP, -20 other outs, -16 nonHR hits, +0 HR, and +5 WP. Gausman got you +57 SO, -11 uBB, -1 GIDP, -20 other outs, +54 nonHR hits, +0 HR. Gausman grades poorly because he got raked within the park, even if he did strike out a lot of guys, didn't allow many homers, and didn't allow a lot of walks, as shown by his low FIP. While we may be quick to jump the gun and blame this on defense because of the ERA and FIP difference, a better approach is to rely on Baseball Savant's OAA behind-the-pitcher measures, which you can view here. RELIEVERS OF THE YEAR Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year: Emmanuel Clase, CP, Cleveland Guardians, 18.05 Pitching Value Runner-up: Jason Adam, RP, Tampa Bay Rays, 11.19 Pitching Value Clase photo courtesy of Cleveland.com Clase led all MLB relievers and finished 2nd in the AL among pitchers in general with his Pitching Value. Again, he went 3-4 with 42 saves in 72 innings with 77 strikeouts, a 1.37 ERA, and a 1.98 FIP. Recall that the first-quartile reliever ERA was 2.78 and FIP was 3.03. Clase has an fWAR of 2.4, the 2nd highest fWAR among relievers, and a bWAR of 2.8. Adam went 2-3 in 63 innings and recorded 8 saves. Baseball Reference technically lists him as the Rays' closer, but the Rays don't really follow the 'closer' philosophy. They had another guy with 7 saves and someone else with 6 saves. Adam struck out 75 with a 1.57 ERA and a 2.86 FIP. His bWAR was 2.6 and his fWAR was 2.2. Clase got you +13 SO, -11 uBB, +6 GIDP, +11 other outs, -6 nonHR hits, -1 HR, and +3 WP. Adam got you +19 SO, -2 uBB, +5 GIDP, -6 other outs, -15 nonHR hits, +1 HR, and +5 HBP Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year: Ryan Helsley, CP, St. Louis Cardinals, 12.84 Pitching Value Runner-up: Evan Phillips, RP, Los Angeles Dodgers, 12.73 Pitching Value Helsley photo courtesy of The Athletic. Helsley had the 2nd highest Pitching Value in MLB, while Phillips finished 3rd. Helsley went a stellar 9-1 with 94 strikeouts and 19 saves in 64 innings, to go with a 1.26 ERA and a 2.33 FIP. Recall that the first-quartile reliever ERA was 2.78 and FIP was 3.03. His bWAR was 2.7 and his fWAR was 2.0. Phillips went a solid 7-3 with 77 strikeouts and 2 saves in 63 innings, while having a 1.14 ERA and a 1.94 FIP. His bWAR was 2.8 and his fWAR was 2.2. Helsley got you +37 SO, +2 uBB, -19 nonHR hits, +2 HR, -1 HBP, -0 GIDP, and -11 other outs Phillips got you +21 SO, -3 uBB, -9 nonHR hits, -2 HR, +2 HBP, +1 GIDP, and -4 other outs ROOKIES OF THE YEAR AL RoY: Julio Rodriguez, CF, Seattle Mariners, 40.83 Player Value Runner-up: Adley Rutschmann, C/DH, Baltimore Orioles, 23.32 Player Value Photo courtesy of Lookout Landing. Rodriguez has had a tremendous first season, finishing 2nd in MLB and the AL in Player Value among CF. He was also the 4th best OF in MLB, and the 14th best player in MLB overall. Julio was well-rounded, with 25.26 Batting Value and 15.93 Fielding Value, good enough to what should win him the AL Gold Glove for CF. Julio had a bWAR of 6.0 and an fWAR of 5.3. Rutschman also had a solid rookie campaign, finishing 8th in MLB and 3rd in the AL in Player Value among C. He was more one-dimensional, with a -2.50 Fielding Value but a 25.27 Batting Value, good enough to what should win him the AL Silver Slugger for C. Adley had a bWAR of 5.2 and an fWAR of 5.3. Julio had an OPS of .853 compared to a first-quartile of .621, and a wOBA of .366 vs a first-quartile of .280. Adley had an OPS of .806 vs a first-quartile of .609, and a wOBA of .354 vs a first-quartile of .273. As their Batting Values show, they were very comparable offensively. Defensively, Adley's fielding percentage comparisons are .989 vs .992, while Julio's are .984 vs .990. Adley's RF9 comparisons are 8.33 vs 8.60, while Julio's are 2.88 vs 2.41. Julio made more outs than Rutschman, relative to his position. NL RoY: Nolan Gorman, 2B/DH, St. Louis Cardinals, 26.95 Player Value Runner-up: Brendan Donovan, 2B/3B/RF/LF/1B/DH/SS, St. Louis Cardinals, 26.22 Player Value Photo courtesy of Redbird Rants. A pair of Cardinals rookies lead the NL according to Player Value, while most people and WAR probably expect a pair of Braves rookies to be leading the way. Braves SP Spencer Strider led all rookie pitchers in MLB and the NL with a Player Value of 18.20, finishing 6th in MLB and 4th in the NL among rookies. Braves CF Michael Harris II finished 9th in MLB and 6th in the NL among rookies with a Player Value of 12.36. Finishing ahead of the Braves duo but behind the Cardinals duo was Pirates rookie SS Oneil Cruz, with a Player Value of 20.30. FanGraphs WAR has Harris and Strider at 4.9, Donovan at 2.7, Cruz at 1.2, and Gorman at 0.5. Baseball Reference WAR has Harris at 5.3, Donovan at 4.1, Strider at 3.7, Cruz at 2.3, and Gorman at 0.7. So, why the disparity with Player Value? Let's quickly dig into the details. First, how does Player Value think these players are good? Here are the Batting Value and Fielding Values for the NL rookies in question, with the Pitching Value and Fielding Value for Strider: Gorman: 2.63 Batting Value, 24.24 Fielding Value Donovan: 8.93 Batting Value, 18.38 Fielding Value Cruz: 3.96 Batting Value, 16.97 Fielding Value Strider: 17.50 Pitching Value, 0.70 Fielding Value Harris: 17.88 Batting Value, -6.79 Fielding Value Just like it is difficult for a pitcher to win the MVP under Player Value, it is difficult for a rookie pitcher to win the Rookie of the Year under Player Value. While Strider can add value pitching to make up for the fact that he doesn't bat, he spends considerably less time in the field, preventing him from accumulating as much Fielding Value as his fellow rookies. So Gorman and Cruz are defense heavy, Donovan is pretty split, and Harris is offense heavy. Statcast disagrees on Gorman and Cruz, measuring them at -12 and -9 OAA. Donovan is measured at -3 OAA, while Harris is at 7 OAA. Rfield has Gorman at -6, Donovan at 9, Cruz at 1, and Harris at 8. fWAR has Gorman's Fielding Runs at -8, Donovan at -3.7, Cruz at -5.2, and Harris at 7. When discussing Player Value, it is imperative that we understand the impact that a player's position has. On an absolute scale, Gorman clearly wasn't the best rookie batter. Harris had an OPS of .853 and a wOBA of .368, and the first-quartile CF had an OPS of .621 and a wOBA of .280. Gorman had both a lower OPS and wOBA at .721 and .316, compared to 2B first-quartiles of .681 vs .302. So Harris was the better batter both absolutely and relative to his position, hence his higher Batting Value. But what about fielding? Gorman had a .9750 fielding percentage vs his position's first-quartile of .9761, but his RF9 comparison was 5.05 vs 3.67. Harris had a fielding percentage comparison of .9920 vs .9903, but an RF9 comparison of 2.25 vs 2.41. So Harris did better at making the balls surely hit his way, but Gorman did a better job of making additional plays. Now I will dive into 1st-team and 2nd-team selections for both the AL and NL, as well as MLB overall. Each starting position gets one spot, besides pitchers. Starting pitchers get 5 spots, as is the usual rotation size. Relief pitchers get two spots, and closers get one spot. I've also added a miscellaneous spot for safety, which will be used by diverse outfielders that didn't play at least 50% of their games at one outfield position, utility players that didn't play at least 50% of their games at any one position, outfielders that finish in the top 6 among all outfielders but not among the top 2 in a specific outfield position, or relievers/closers that finish in the top 6 among relievers/closers but not among the top 4 relievers or top 2 closers. The flexibility is intended so that every year there's hopefully at least somebody that qualifies, and this prevents worthy guys from being left out. This safety spot will only be used for the NL and AL teams. For the MLB, I'll put the safety player where I think makes the most sense, if he qualifies. FIRST-TEAM AL C: Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays, 32.11 Player Value 1B: Nathaniel Lowe, Texas Rangers, 28.47 Player Value 2B: Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Guardians, 54.81 Player Value 3B: Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox, 30.45 Player Value SS: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox, 43.28 Player Value LF: Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians, 15.82 Player Value CF: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, 44.96 Player Value RF: Taylor Ward, Los Angeles Angels, 27.02 Player Value DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels, 57.01 Player Value SP1: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros, 24.91 Player Value SP2: Framber Valdez, Houston Astros, 14.65 Player Value SP3: Nestor Cortes, New York Yankees, 14.45 Player Value SP4: Alek Manoah, Toronto Blue Jays, 14.02 Player Value SP5: Shane Bieber, Cleveland Guardians, 14.01 Player Value RP1: Jimmy Herget, Los Angeles Angeles, 10.91 Player Value RP2: Jason Adam, Tampa Bay Rays, 10.83 Player Value CP: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians, 20.64 Player Value Misc: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees, 83.72 Player Value Judge was 44% a CF, 41% a RF, and 14% a DH. He was the best player in all of MLB, but gets the miscellaneous spot since he didn't play at least 50% of his games at one specific position. SECOND-TEAM AL C: Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners, 27.77 Player Value 1B: Anthony Rizzo, New York Yankees, 17.79 Player Value 2B: Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers, 46.63 Player Value 3B: Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians, 29.20 Player Value SS: Corey Seager, Texas Rangers, 31.86 Player Value LF: Andrew Benintendi, Kansas City Royals & New York Yankees, 10.14 Player Value CF: Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners, 40.83 Player Value RF: Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros, 18.15 Player Value DH: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros, 45.79 Player Value SP1: Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Rays, 12.35 Player Value SP2: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels, 11.60 Player Value SP3: Ross Stripling, Toronto Blue Jays, 9.27 Player Value SP4: Cristian Javier, Houston Astros, 9.06 Player Value SP5: Jeffrey Springs, Tampa Bay Rays, 8.41 Player Value RP1: John Schreiber, Boston Red Sox, 10.37 Player Value RP2: Wandy Peralta, New York Yankees, 10.36 Player Value CP: Clay Holmes, New York Yankees, 10.80 Player Value Misc: Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins, 24.06 Player Value Buxton was the 5th best outfielder in the AL, but the 3rd best CF in the AL. He gets the miscellaneous spot since he was better than Benintendi, but didn't play any LF. Also note Shohei's impressive feat of being on both the first and second team for the AL. FIRST-TEAM NL C: J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies, 56.48 Player Value 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals, 75.07 Player Value 2B: Jeff McNeil, New York Mets, 41.12 Player Value 3B: Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals, 35.89 Player Value SS: Francisco Lindor, New York Mets, 28.74 Player Value LF: Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs, 17.12 Player Value CF: Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates, 17.04 Player Value RF: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers, 46.44 Player Value DH: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, 21.53 Player Value SP1: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins, 27.30 Player Value SP2: Max Fried, Atlanta Braves, 21.36 Player Value SP3: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks, 20.51 Player Value SP4: Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers, 19.94 Player Value SP5: Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers, 19.68 Player Value RP1: Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers, 14.61 Player Value RP2: Brusdar Graterol, Los Angeles Dodgers, 11.20 Player Value CP: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals, 14.54 Player Value Misc: Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals, 52.08 Player Value Edman's position distribution was 49% 2B, 4% 3B, 44% SS, 1% CF, 1% RF, and 2% DH. He was one of the best players in MLB and the NL, but since he didn't play at least 50% of the time at one specific position, he gets the miscellaneous spot. SECOND-TEAM NL C: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers, 38.39 Player Value 1B: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers, 41.70 Player Value 2B: Brendan Rodgers, Colorado Rockies, 40.40 Player Value 3B: Manny Machado, San Diego Padres, 22.87 Player Value SS: Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates, 20.30 Player Value LF: Joc Pederson, San Francisco Giants, 11.62 Player Value CF: Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves, 12.36 Player Value RF: Juan Soto, Washington Nationals & San Diego Padres, 37.03 Player Value DH: Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies, 18.24 Player Value SP1: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants, 18.60 Player Value SP2: Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers, 18.57 Player Value SP3: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves, 18.20 Player Value SP4: Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants, 14.88 Player Value SP5: Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies, 14.09 Player Value RP1: Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers, 9.62 Player Value RP2: Collin McHugh, Atlanta Braves, 7.85 Player Value CP: Edwin Diaz, New York Mets, 10.36 Player Value Misc: Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals, 26.22 Player Value Donovan's position distribution was 11% 1B, 26% 2B, 21% 3B, 5% SS, 13% LF, 14% RF, and 11% DH. Since he didn't play at least 50% of the time at one specific position, he gets the miscellaneous spot. Edwin Diaz's brother, Alexis Diaz of the Cincinnati Reds, was the 6th best relief pitcher in the NL with an 8.37 Player Value, but he was technically the Reds' closer, despite recording just 10 saves. Williams did takeover closer duties for the Brewers after they traded Josh Hader to the Padres, but Hader was their main closer for the season. FIRST-TEAM MLB C: J.T. Realmuto, Philadelphia Phillies, 56.48 Player Value 1B: Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals, 75.07 Player Value 2B: Andres Gimenez, Cleveland Guardians, 54.81 Player Value 3B: Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals, 35.89 Player Value SS: Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals, 52.08 Player Value LF: Yordan Alvarez, Houston Astros, 45.79 Player Value CF: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees, 83.72 Player Value RF: Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers, 46.44 Player Value DH: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels, 57.01 Player Value SP1: Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins, 27.30 Player Value SP2: Justin Verlander, Houston Astros, 24.91 Player Value SP3: Max Fried, Atlanta Braves, 21.36 Player Value SP4: Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks, 20.51 Player Value SP5: Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers, 19.94 Player Value RP1: Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers, 14.61 Player Value RP2: Brusdar Graterol, Los Angeles Dodgers, 11.20 Player Value CP: Emmanuel Clase, Cleveland Guardians, 20.64 Player Value Since Judge was mainly a CF and RF, and Betts had a higher Player Value than Trout, Judge gets the CF spot and Trout gets demoted to the 2nd team. The best primarily LF, Ian Happ, has a substantially lower Player Value than his other outfield leaders. Alvarez spent 42% of his time in LF, and has the 9th highest Player Value overall, so getting him on the 1st-team made sense. Since Edman played mainly 2B and SS and has a higher Played Value than Gimenez and Bogaerts, and since Gimenez had a higher Player Value than Bogaerts, I put Edman in the SS spot. SECOND-TEAM MLB C: Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers, 38.39 Player Value 1B: Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers, 41.70 Player Value 2B: Marcus Semien, Texas Rangers, 46.63 Player Value 3B: Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox, 30.45 Player Value SS: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox, 43.28 Player Value LF: Jeff McNeil, New York Mets, 41.12 Player Value CF: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, 44.96 Player Value RF: Juan Soto, Washington Nationals & San Diego Padres, 37.03 Player Value DH: Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays, 32.11 Player Value SP1: Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers, 19.68 Player Value SP2: Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants, 18.60 Player Value SP3: Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Dodgers, 18.57 Player Value SP4: Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves, 18.20 Player Value SP5: Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants, 14.88 Player Value RP1: Jimmy Herget, Los Angeles Angeles, 10.91 Player Value RP2: Jason Adam, Tampa Bay Rays, 10.83 Player Value CP: Ryan Helsley, St. Louis Cardinals, 14.54 Player Value As mentioned above, due to the utility reasons for Judge and Edman, Trout and Bogaerts get sent to the 2nd-team despite being the best primarily CF and SS (respectively) in both the AL and the NL. The 2nd best primarily DH, Alvarez, was promoted to the 1st-team as the LF. Kirk was the best primarily C in the AL, and 5th best primarily C in MLB overall, but spent 40% of his time at DH, so he gets the 2nd-team DH spot. McNeil was the the 3rd best primarily 2B, but spent 22% of his time at LF, so he gets the 2nd-team LF spot. Happ gets demoted despite being the best primarily LF in both leagues, as McNeil was easily the superior player. Guys like Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Ward were clearly better players than Happ overall, but unfortunately didn't play enough LF to justify putting them in that spot, and were both worse than McNeil overall. TOP 25 MLB PLAYERS
PLAYER VALUE BY POSITION And now we will finally wrap everything up, showing that total Player Value is not particularly biased towards any certain position. Here are the boxplots of Player Value by position: Shohei naturally gets his own spot for his unique two-way talents, but technically so too does... Pablo Reyes? He played in just 5 games for the Brewers in 2022, 3 as a SS, 2 as a 3B, and 1 as a RP. That's why we see him here; at least 50% of his games at SS, and at least 15% of his games as a pitcher. Leftfielders were particularly down this year, but this is not the case for Player Value in general, as Josh Hamilton, Carl Crawford, and Matt Holliday all ranked very high in the 2010 example. PLAYER VALUE BY TEAM Since a team's Player Value correlates well with its run differential per game, then we'd expect that the teams that have players with the most Player Value will be the ones that have the highest run differentials. Recall from my original Player Value post that Batting Value Average and Baserunning Value Average can describe 92.37% of a team's runs scored per game, while Fielding Value Average and Pitching Value Average can describe 86.1% of a team's runs allowed per game. These should also be the teams that win the most, since run differential per game correlates well with winning percentage (wins per game). Run differential per game can describe 89.31% of a team's winning percentage. Here are the boxplots and summary statistics of Player Value by team in 2022: Feel free to compare these side by side with the 2022 MLB standings here. I spot the Braves, Guardians, Astros, Dodgers, and Yankees as having higher box plots, denoting a higher average Player Value. Weren't these teams good? I also spot the Reds, Royals, Marlins, Athletics, Pirates, and Rangers as having lower box plots, denoting a lower average Player Value. Weren't these teams bad? Player Value seems to uphold its ability to correlate with a team's ability to win. The Nationals' box plot doesn't seem as low as it should be given their record, but look at those outliers on the low end! Sure enough, we see they have the lowest mean Player Value. The Cardinals' box plot doesn't seem as high as it should be given their record, but look at those outliers on the high end! Sure enough, we see they have a high mean Player Value. Looks like the Giants were the team with the highest mean Player Value but the worst record, at 81-81. Here is the run differential per game by team in 2010: Not surprising, we see that the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Cardinals had high run differentials, and were good in 2022. I didn't explicitly mention the Mets above, but if you look at their box plot you'll see that it was higher. Similarly, we see that the Reds, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Athletics, Pirates, and Nationals had low run differentials, and were bad in 2022. I didn't explicitly mention the Rockies above, but if you look at their box plot you'll see that it was lower. The Tigers' box plot actually appears somewhat middle-of-the-pack, but they are also the only team without an outlier on the upper end, and have several outliers on the lower end. Here is the win differential by team in 2010: Again, we see that the Braves, Astros, Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees were the winningest teams. The Mets won more than their run differential would suggest, and the Cardinals won less than their run differential would suggest. We also see that the Reds, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Athletics, Pirates, and Nationals were the least winningest teams. The Rangers lost more than their run differential would suggest, as did the Athletics. The Rockies lost less than their run differential would suggest. The fact that the Giants had a positive run differential but a .500 record explains why Player Value was slightly off for them. The setup is Player Value --> Run Differential --> Winning Percentage, so if we see a disconnect between Player Value & Winning Percentage, it could be because of unique Run Differential to Winning Percentage disconnects, rather than Player Value being necessarily wrong. I hope I have been able to show the value of Player Value as a metric! Player Value is measured in runs. Teams with a higher average Player Value are generally the same teams with higher run differentials and higher winning percentages. Teams with a lower average Player Value are generally the same teams with lower run differentials and lower winning percentages. If you want to be good, grab those guys with higher Player Values, and dump those guys with lower Player Values! FILES The below files show the players that were used for the first-quartile calculation for each position:
The files below show the first-quartile values for position players and pitchers, respectively:
The files below is the "master file" for position players. It shows the stats and Player Value components for all position players, and also divides players into their respective positions on different tabs. First-team guys are highlighted green, and second-team guys are highlighted light green. Silver Slugger and Hank Aaron Award winners are highlighted in silver, while Gold Glove and Platinum Glove winners are highlighted in gold.
This file is the equivalent "master file" for pitchers. It shows the stats and Player Value components for all pitchers, and all divides pitchers into starters and relievers on different tabs. First-team guys are highlighted green, and second-team guys are highlighted light green. Gold Glove winners are highlighted in gold, while Cy Young and Reliever of the Year winners are also highlighted in green.
This file combines the Player Value components of the position players and the pitchers. This is how you'll see who your top 25 players overall are. Most Valuable Player winners are highlighted in green. Platinum Glove winners are highlighted in gold, while Hank Aaron Award winners are highlighted in silver. Rookies are placed on a separate tab, with the Rookie of the Year winners highlighted in green.
These are the files used to obtain the stats for each player, courtesy of Baseball Reference. You can also find this data online on Baseball Reference. Player batting data here. Player fielding data here. Pitcher data here. Catcher fielding here. Pitcher batting against data here. Player game appearances data here. Team standings here. For all of these, I scrolled down to the player table (such as Player Standard Batting), hit Hide Partial Rows, hit Share & Export, hit Get table as CSV (for Excel), copied the data into Excel, used Excel's Text to Columns feature, and then saved the resulting file.
The first two R files below for position players and pitchers were used to do all of the calculations for Player Value for 2022, while the third R file below combined the Player Values of position players and pitchers:
The Yearly wOBA Weights workbook is read in by the R files, so it is needed as well. It is essentially just a download from the FanGraphs Guts! page, which you can find here.
One last thing - think that the 25% baseline is too low or high? Well, the R files above are equipped to easily change the baseline level to your liking. Just change the baselineLevel variable at the beginning to your liking. For example, here is how the position players and pitchers look if a baseline level of 10% is used instead:
The results are very similar. Judge should still be the AL MVP, and Goldschmidt should still be the NL MVP. Verlander and Alcantara should still win the AL and NL Cy Youngs. The Platinum Glove and Hank Aaron Award winners are the same, too. Julio and Gorman should still be the AL and NL Rookies of the Year. Anyone that is in the negatives here is in the bottom 10% of their position. Thank you all for reading. Previously I've been using the Lahman Dataset for the player data. It probably won't be updated for 2022 until next Spring, so I had to pull the data from Baseball Reference to get this season done quickly. Baseball Reference has more data than Lahman, but my Player Value files aren't updated to work with the additional data. I plan to incorporate this extra data - such as more specific baserunning, batting against for pitchers, and better measurements of opportunity for fielders - into Player Value soon. If these updates lead to any substantial changes in Player Value, I'll update this post accordingly or make another one. As always, feel free to comment any thought you have. Statting Lineup Newsletter Signup Form:
If you'd like to receive email updates for each new post that I make, sign up for the Statting Lineup newsletter using the link below: https://weebly.us18.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=ab653f474b2ced9091eb248b1&id=3a60f3b85f
0 Comments
In my last post, I applied the Batting Value portion of my Player Value metric on the 2010 season to determine which players should have won the Silver Slugger and Hank Aaron awards, which you can read about here. In the post before that, I applied the Fielding Value portion of my Player Value metric on the 2010 season to determine which players should have won the Gold Glove and Platinum Glove awards, which you can read about here. You can read about my Player Value metric in general here, as well as its important addendum here. In this post, I will complete the example rollout of my Player Value metric on the 2010 season. I will begin by looking at Pitching Value to determine which players should have won the Cy Young and Reliever of the Year awards in both leagues. I will then look at overall Player Value to determine which players should have won the Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards in both leagues. In lieu of All-Star appearances, which require midseason data, I will also determine First-Team and Second-Team honors at each position in both leagues and the MLB according to Player Value. Here's a quick reminder of the run value weights for the relevant pitching events: non-Home Run Hit: -.37 runs Home Run: -1.29 runs Unintentional Walk: -.22 runs Intentional Walk: -.17 runs Hit By Pitch: -.24 runs Sacrifice Bunt: .22 runs Sacrifice Fly: .10 runs Strikeout: .34 runs Groundball Double Play: .75 runs Other Out: .33 runs Wild Pitch: -.26 runs Balk: -.25 runs Here's a quick reminder of the run value weights for the relevant defensive events: Putout by a non catcher or first baseman: .33 runs Unassisted Putout by a first baseman: .33 runs Non-strikeout Putout by a catcher: .33 runs Assisted Putout by a first baseman: .2*.33 = .066 runs Strikeout Putout by a catcher: .33*.33 = .1089 runs Assist: .8*.33 = .264 runs Error: -.68 runs Double Play: .10 runs Passed Ball: -.26 runs Stolen Base allowed by catcher: -.15 runs Caught Stealing by catcher: .39 runs Here's a quick reminder of the run value weights for the relevant offensive events: Single: .30 runs Double: .58 runs Triple: .91 runs Home Run: 1.29 runs Unintentional Walk: .22 runs Intentional Walk: .17 runs Hit By Pitch: .24 runs Sacrifice Bunt: -.22 runs Sacrifice Fly: -.10 runs Strikeout: -.34 runs Groundball Double Play: -.75 runs Other Out: -.33 runs CY YOUNGS View the AL and NL Cy Young voting results in 2010 here. The Cy Young award is intended to be given to the best pitcher (normally a starter, but not exclusive to them) in both leagues. You can read about it here and view past winners. It has been awarded since 1967 and is frankly named after the wrong guy; Walter Johnson would have been a superior choice, in my opinion. The winners are voted on by 30 representatives from the BBWAA, one from each team. Voters pick their top 5 pitchers and the winner; first place votes are worth 7 points, second place 4 points, third place 3 points, fourth place 2 points, and fifth place 1 point. Since relievers nowadays have their own distinct award, I find it unnecessary to include them for the Cy Young, so my Cy Young Player Value winners will be the best starting pitchers each season. Additionally, note that the winners will be determined via a pitcher's Pitching Value, not a pitcher's total Player Value. The overall Player Value of a pitcher will only be used for MVP, RoY, and 1st/2nd team honors. The Cy Young goes to the best pitcher at pitching, not the best overall player that is a pitcher. NL Actual Winner: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies NL Player Value Winner: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals Wainwright led the NL with a Pitching Value of 31.38. Roy Halladay wasn't the best Roy at pitching on his team, let alone the best pitching Roy in the NL or the best pitcher in the NL overall. Roy Oswalt boasted an impressive Pitching Value of 23.32 in his Astros/Phillies split season, while Roy Halladay had a Pitching Value of 22.66, the 5th best in the NL. The first-quartile NL starter had a Pitching Value Average of .0908, while Wainwright's was .1457 and Halladay's was .1340. Here are their pitching rate comparisons to their first-quartiles, in the order of ERA, WHIP, AVG against, OBP against, BABIP, and FIP: Wainwright: 2.42 vs 3.12, 1.051 vs 1.178, .224 vs .239, .274 vs .299, .274 vs .299, 2.86 vs 3.39 Halladay: 2.44 vs 3.12, 1.041 vs 1.178, .245 vs .239, .271 vs .299, .271 vs .299, 3.01 vs 3.39 Your friendly reminder that WHIP is walks and hits per inning pitched, BABIP is batting average on balls in play, and FIP is fielding independent pitching. Here are some of their traditional pitching stats: Wainwright: 20-11, 230.33 IP, 186 H, 15 HR, 56 BB, 213 SO, 2 IBB, 4 HBP, 25 GIDP, 407 other outs, 910 batters Halladay: 21-10, 250.67 IP, 231 H, 24 HR, 30 BB, 219 SO, 1 IBB, 5 HBP, 25 GIDP, 468 other outs, 993 batters And here are some totals relative to their positional first-quartiles: Wainwright: -12.7 nonHR hits, -3.11 HR, -4.42 uBB, +57.62 SO, -1.51 IBB, -.38 WP, -.51 HBP, +0 BK, +4.79 SH, +1.92 SF, +10.73 GIDP, -22.44 other outs Halladay: +7.08 nonHR hits, +4.3 HR, -34.58 uBB, +49.9 SO, -2.82 IBB, +2.41 WP, +1.09 HBP, +1 BK, +.06 SH, +.56 SF, +9.47 GIDP, +.65 other outs Baseball Reference WAR has Wainwright at 6.2 and Halladay at 8.5, while FanGraphs WAR has them at 5.1 and 6.2, respectively. Halladay had the highest fWAR among NL pitchers. The worst starting pitcher at pitching in the NL was Zach Duke of the Pittsburgh Pirates, with a Pitching Value of -24.89, a bWAR of -1.1, and an fWAR of 0.3. The NL pitcher with the lowest fWAR was Todd Wellemeyer of the San Francisco Giants at -0.9, who had a Pitching Value of -10.54. AL Actual Winner: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners AL Player Value Winner: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners King Felix led all of MLB and the AL with a Pitching Value of 37.13. The next closest in the AL was Cliff Lee of the Seattle Mariners and the Texas Rangers with a Pitching Value of 29.99. The first-quartile AL starting pitcher had a Pitching Value Average of .0899, while Felix's was .1433 and Lee's was .1426. Here are their pitching rate comparisons to their first-quartiles, in the order of ERA, WHIP, AVG against, OBP against, BABIP, and FIP: Felix: 2.27 vs 3.63, 1.057 vs 1.206, .212 vs .241, .273 vs .301, .273 vs .301, 3.04 vs 3.62 Lee: 3.18 vs 3.63, 1.003 vs 1.206, .240 vs .241, .255 vs .301, .255 vs .301, 2.58 vs 3.62 Here are some of their traditional pitching stats: Felix: 13-12, 249.67 IP, 194 H, 17 HR, 70 BB, 232 SO, 1 IBB, 8 HBP, 25 GIDP, 463 other outs, 1,001 batters Lee: 12-9, 212.33 IP, 195 H, 16 HR, 18 BB, 185 SO, 2 IBB, 1 HBP, 11 GIDP, 423 other outs, 843 batters Only 18 walks in 212 innings! That's 0.8 walks per 9 innings, the 9th lowest among pitchers that qualified for the ERA title since 1900! And here are some totals relative to their positional first-quartiles: Felix: -20.01 nonHR hits, -2.61 HR, +7.28 uBB, +82.07 SO, -.19 IBB, +9.43 WP, +1.74 HBP, +1 BK, +2.82 SH, -1.93 SF, +9.59 GIDP, -13.44 other outs Lee: +11.45 nonHR hits, -.68 HR, -36.49 uBB, +57.49 SO, +.99 IBB, -.88 WP, -4.32 HBP, +1 BK, +1.29 SH, +1.81 SF, -2.11 GIDP, +17.8 other outs Baseball Reference WAR has Felix at 7.2 and Lee at 5.1, while FanGraphs WAR has Felix at 7.3 and Felix at 6.7. The Mariners had the 1st and 2nd best pitchers in the AL according to Player Value and 1st and 3rd best in the AL according to fWAR, and still were terrible in 2010. The Phillies had traded Lee to the Mariners in late 2009 to make room for the 'superior' Roy Halladay. Despite Halladay's winning of the NL Cy Young, Player Value and fWAR agree that Lee was the better pitcher in 2010, and both fWAR and bWAR think that Lee was the better pitcher for the rest of their careers. Good thing the Phillies got Lee back shortly afterwards in late 2010! The worst starting pitcher at pitching in the AL was Ryan Rowland-Smith of the... Seattle Mariners! He had a Pitching Value of -27.16, a bWAR of -2.6, and an fWAR of -1.5, the worst in MLB. Keeping it simple, he had a 1-10 record and a 6.75 ERA... yeesh. RELIEVERS OF THE YEAR This award has been around in different forms over the years. The initial version was the Rolaids Relief Man Award, which began in 1976. You can read about it and view past winners here. It was designed to be given to the best closer in each league. The award was decided using a point system, where a "tough" save (tying run on base) was worth 4 points, a save was worth 3 points, a win worth 2 points, a loss worth -2 points, and a blown save worth -2 points. The award stopped being given out after the 2012 season when the Rolaids brand was acquired by another company that didn't care for sponsoring the award. This award was effectively replaced by MLB's Reliever of the Year Award, which has been around since 2014. The AL winner technically wins the Mariano Rivera AL Reliever of the Year award, and the NL winner wins the Trevor Hoffman NL Reliever of the Year award. These awards are decided by a panel of voters, who pick their top 3 guys, with 1st place votes worth 5 points, 2nd place votes worth 3 points, and 3rd place votes worth 1 point. The panel consists of notable retired relief pitchers. You can read about this newer award and view past winners here. My Reliever of the Year awards will go to the relief pitchers with the highest Pitching Value in each league. Note that this is relief pitchers, not just closers. Pitching Value does not make any type of leverage adjustment for the 'difficulty' of particular pitching situations. NL Actual Winner: Heath Bell, San Diego Padres NL Player Value Winner: Hung-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers In his penultimate season, Kuo led all NL relievers with a Pitching Value of 15.90. Bell had a Pitching Value of 8.50, placing him 15th in the NL among relievers. The first-quartile NL reliever had a Pitching Value Average of .0854, while Kuo's was .1907 and Bell's was .1407. Here are their pitching rate comparisons to their first-quartiles, in the order of ERA, WHIP, AVG against, OBP against, BABIP, and FIP: Kuo: 1.20 vs 2.65, .783 vs 1.176, .139 vs .219, .211 vs .289, .211 vs .289, 1.81 vs 3.02 Bell: 1.93 vs 2.65, 1.200 vs 1.176, .221 vs .219, .300 vs .289, .300 vs .289, 2.05 vs 3.02 Here are some of their traditional pitching stats: Kuo: 12 SV, 60 IP, 29 H, 1 HR, 18 BB, 0 IBB, 1 HBP, 73 SO, 1 GIDP, 105 other outs, 229 batters Bell: 47 SV, 70 IP, 56 H, 1 HR, 28 BB, 3 IBB, 1 HBP, 86 SO, 4 GIDP, 107 other outs, 287 batters And here are some totals relative to their positional first-quartiles: Kuo: -14.95 nonHR hits, -2.33 HR, +3.10 uBB, +28.73 SO, -1.75 IBB, +2.04 WP, +.06 HBP, +1 BK, -.05 SH, +.20 SF, -2.33 GIDP, +2.44 other outs Bell: +4.89 nonHR hits, -2.89 HR, +7.61 uBB, +34.35 SO, +.96 IBB, -.12 WP, -.10 HBP, +0 BK, +2.78 SH, +.07 SF, +.11 GIDP, -12.65 other outs Baseball Reference WAR has Kuo at 3.3 and Bell at 1.9, while FanGraphs WAR has Kuo at 2.3 and Bell at 2.3. Kuo and Bell finished 3rd and 4th among relievers in MLB and in the NL. The NL relief pitcher with the most fWAR was Carlos Marmol of the Chicago Cubs, who had a Pitching Value of 13.21, the 4th best in the NL. The worst pitching reliever in the NL was Manny Parra of the Milwaukee Brewers, with a Pitching Value of -18.91, who had an fWAR of 0. The NL reliever with the lowest fWAR was Juan/J.C. Guatirrez of the Arizona Diamondbacks at -1.1, who had a Pitching Value of -7.87. He was technically the Dbacks closer, but split the role with Chad Qualls who was even worse with a Pitching Value of -9.78 and an fWAR of 0. AL Actual Winner: Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay Rays AL Player Value Winner: Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay Rays Soriano led the AL among relief pitchers with a Pitching Value of 13.73. The next closest was the legendary Mariano Rivera of the New York Yankees, with a Pitching Value of 12.15. The first-quartile AL reliever had a Pitching Value Average of .0859, while Soriano's was .1804 and Rivera's was .1735. Here are their pitching rate comparisons to their first-quartiles, in the order of ERA, WHIP, AVG against, OBP against, BABIP, and FIP: Soriano: 1.73 vs 2.97, .80 vs 1.12, .163 vs .215, .215 vs .288, .215 vs .288, 2.81 vs 3.23 Rivera: 1.80 vs 2.97, .83 vs 1.12, .183 vs .215, .239 vs .288, .239 vs .288, 2.81 vs 3.23 Here are some of their traditional pitching stats: Soriano: 45 SV, 62.33 IP, 36 H, 4 HR, 14 BB, 2 IBB, 1 HBP, 57 SO, 3 GIDP, 125 other outs, 237 batters Rivera: 33 SV, 60 IP, 39 H, 2 HR, 11 BB, 3 IBB, 5 HBP, 45 SO, 4 GIDP, 125 other outs, 230 batters And here are some totals relative to their positional first-quartiles: Soriano: -11.38 nonHR hits, +.18 HR, -4.75 uBB, +12.81 SO, +.93 IBB, -1.42 WP, -.04 HBP, +0 BK, -1.08 SH, +.01 SF, -.55 GIDP, +14.01 other outs Rivera: -4.76 nonHR hits, -1.67 HR, -8.12 uBB, +2.47 SO, +1.97 IBB, -1.36 WP, +4 HBP, +0 BK, -1.04 SH, +.05 SF, +.58 GIDP, +18.16 other outs Baseball Reference WAR has Soriano at 2.1 and Rivera at 2.4, while FanGraphs WAR has Soriano at 1.9 and Rivera at 1.8. The AL reliever with the most fWAR was Matt Thornton of the Chicago White Sox at 2.2, who had a Pitching Value of 9.97 for the 6th best in the AL. The worst pitching reliever in the AL was Chad Gaudin of the Oakland Athletics and New York Yankees with a Pitching Value of -16.62. He had an fWAR of -1, the 2nd worst in the AL. Just below him was Brian Tallet of the Toronto Blue Jays at -1.2, who had a Pitching Value of -16.22. In terms of just closers, the worst was Alfredo Simon of the Baltimore Orioles, with a Pitching Value of -8.57, and an fWAR of -0.8. ROOKIES OF THE YEAR This one is well known, given to the best player in each league that is in his first qualified season. There's no specific awards for different positions, so all rookie players are on the table. You can view the winners in 2010 here. The award works the same way as the other BBWAA voting based awards such as the Cy Young and the MVP. NL Actual Winner: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants, Catcher NL Player Value Winner: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants, Catcher Posey led all MLB rookies and finished 1st in the NL with a Player Value of 22.87. This was good for the 4th most in MLB and in the NL among catchers. He received 20 first place votes and finished with 129 vote points. The next closest was Jason Heyward, rightfielder for the Atlanta Braves, who received 9 first place votes and 107 vote points. Player Value did not like Heyward, rating him at -3.93. The rookie with the 2nd most Player Value in the NL was Neil Walker, second baseman for the Pittsburgh Pirates, at 16.31. He finished 5th in the actual voting with 0 first place votes and 3 vote points. The NL rookie pitcher with the highest Player Value was Jaime Garcia of the St. Louis Cardinals at 14.57, who finished 3rd in the actual voting with 1 first place vote and 24 vote points. Baseball Reference WAR has Posey at 3.9, Heyward at 6.4, and Garcia at 2.9. FanGraphs WAR has Posey at 4.0, Heyward at 4.6, and Garcia at 2.4. Posey was solid both offensively and defensively, with a Batting Value of 11.09 and a Fielding Value of 12.56. Those place him 6th and 11th in MLB among catchers, respectively. Contrary to what most of us think of Heyward nowadays, he scored fine offensively with a Batting Value of 6.87 but poor defensively with a Fielding Value of -10.41. Walker was pretty good at both, with a 12.48/4.73 split. Garcia had a 14.03 pitching value and was able to add some value defensively with a Fielding Value of 1.07, but essentially took that value away offensively with a Batting Value of -0.79. Compared to the first-quartile catcher, Posey got you 18.89 more singles, 6.38 more doubles, 2 more triples, 10.36 more homers, 70.27 more putouts, 12.22 more assists, 1.53 fewer passed balls, and 12.88 more caught stealings. He had a caught stealing percentage of .3710 vs the first-quartile of .1633, a fielding percentage of .9920 vs the first-quartile of .9914, and range factor per game and per 9 innings comparisons of 8.20 vs 7.20 and 8.59 vs 7.85. He had an OPS of .862 vs the first-quartile of .692, and a wOBA of .371 vs the first-quartile of .309. AL Actual Winner: Neftali Feliz, Texas Rangers, Closer AL Player Value Winner: Austin Jackson, Detroit Tigers, Centerfielder Jackson finished 2nd among all MLB rookies and 1st in the AL with a Player Value of 18.14. Feliz had a Player Value of 9.72, the 4th best among MLB rookie pitchers and best in the AL. Jackson was fueled by his strong defensive abilities, finishing with a Fielding Value of 10.96, while still having a respectable Batting Value for a centerfielder of 6.42. He was the 11th best defensive CF in MLB. His Baserunning Value when it came to just stealing was pretty minimal, but some research I've been doing shows that his non-stealing baserunning may have been the best in the league in 2010; however, that isn't incorporated into Player Value yet. In the actual AL Rookie of the Year voting, Jackson received 8 first place votes to Feliz's 20, and finished with 98 vote points to Feliz's 122. Baseball Reference WAR has Jackson at 5.1 and Feliz at 2.5, while FanGraphs WAR has Jackson at 4.1 and Feliz at 2.0. It's difficult for a pitcher to outweigh the value of a position player, unless most position players have down years and the pitcher truly goes above and beyond. They see less action on the field, so have smaller Fielding Values, and also see less action at the plate, so have smaller Batting Values and Baserunning Values. This is especially true for AL pitchers who bat even less, and for relievers who would generally be pinch-hit for if their spot was to come up in the lineup. Feliz was a great player, but out of the nature of his position he generally isn't involved in the game enough to have a larger impact than a position player would. He had a Pitching Value of 10.72, but hurt himself defensively with a Fielding Value of -0.55. He added no value with his bat or on the bases, as he had 0 plate appearances the entire year. He was the 9th best relief pitcher in the AL, and the 4th best closer. Across all of MLB, he was the 21st best relief pitcher and the 6th best closer. Compared to the first-quartile centerfielder, Jackson got you 41.05 more singles, 11.31 more doubles, 6.22 more triples, 6.38 more stolen bases, 35.93 more putouts, 6.2 more assists, and 2 more double plays. He had an OPS of .745 vs the first-quartile of .679, and a wOBA of .329 vs the first-quartile of .307. In terms of Batting Value Average, the comparison is -.0948 vs -.1152. His fielding percentage of .985 doesn't stand out from the first-quartile of .986, but his range factor per game of 2.63 and range factor per 9 innings of 2.81 do compared to the first-quartiles of 2.38 and 2.54. Compared to the first-quartile closer, Feliz allowed 10.26 fewer non-HR hits, 1.63 fewer unintentional walks, 21.85 more strikeouts, 1.05 more groundball double plays, and 2.54 more other outs. He had an ERA of 2.73 vs the first-quartile of 2.93, a FIP of 2.96 vs the first-quartile of 3.23, and a BABIP of .246 vs the first-quartile of .288. In terms of Pitching Value Average, the comparison is .159 vs .0859. MOST VALUABLE PLAYERS The award that really needs no introduction. Given to the best players in both leagues. You can view the winners in 2010 here. NL Actual Winner: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds, First Base NL Player Value Winner: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, First Base I chose 2010 as my example Player Value season because I hoped to show that Votto deserved to win the MVP that year. I came up short, but am not disappointed with the results. Pujols led all of MLB and the NL with a total Player Value of 76.45. Albert has won 3 MVPs in his career, so this would supposedly be #4, although I haven't checked if any of his other 3 are justified or not. Votto finished 5th in MLB and 3rd in the NL with a total Player Value of 48.79. I have stripped Votto of his one MVP, but spoiler: Player Value has him deserving to have won it in 2017. Votto received 31 first place votes to Pujols' 1, and Votto had 443 vote points to Pujols' 279. Here's how Pujols and Votto compare by their Player Value components: Votto: 41.30 Batting Value, 0.45 Baserunning Value, 7.05 Fielding Value Pujols: 36.42 Batting Value, 0.54 Baserunning Value, 39.50 Fielding Value Votto had the highest Batting Value in the NL, so it's likely that MVP voters are biased towards offensive performance. Pujols was just a slightly worse hitter but a notably superior defender. Note that both players played 100% of their games at first base, so they have the same first-quartiles. Here's how they compare by their Player Value components, in rate form: Votto: -.0092 Batting Value Average, .0214 Baserunning Value Average, .3293 Fielding Value Average Pujols:-.0209 Batting Value Average, .0300 Baserunning Value Average, .3946 Fielding Value Average 1B First-Quartile: -.0906 BatVA, -.1065 BaseVA, .3393 FieldVA Here are their AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA first quartile comparisons: Votto: .324 vs .250, .424 vs .332, .600 vs .406, 1.024 vs .749, .438 vs .332 Pujols: .312 vs .250, .414 vs .332, .596 vs .406, 1.011 vs .749, .419 vs .332 Here are their traditional counting batting stats: Votto: 648 PA, 102 1B, 36 2B, 2 3B, 37 HR, 113 RBI, 83 uBB, 8 IBB, 7 HBP, 0 SH, 3 SF, 125 SO, 11 GIDP Pujols: 700 PA, 101 1B, 39 2B, 1 3B, 42 HR, 118 RBI, 65 uBB, 38 IBB, 4 HBP, 0 SH, 6 SF, 76 SO, 23 GIDP Here are their batting comparisons relative to their first quartiles: Votto: +17.84 1B, +10.42 2B, +2 3B, +18.07 HR, +25.67 uBB, +24.7 SO, +3.73 IBB, +4.76 HBP, +0 SH, -.73 SF, +.78 GIDP, -18.97 other Outs Pujols: +10.08 1B, +11.36 2B, +1 3B, +21.55 HR, +3.07 uBB, -32.35 SO, +33.38 IBB, +1.58 HBP, +0 SH, +1.97 SF, +11.96 GIDP, +31.73 other Outs Here are their fielding percentage, RFG, and RF9 comparisons to first quartiles: Votto: .9960 vs .9923, 8.51 vs 8.56, 8.84 vs 9.11 Pujols: .9980 vs .9923, 10.29 vs 8.56, 10.53 vs 9.11 Here are their traditional counting fielding stats: Votto: 1,283 Inn, 1,265 Ch, 1,132 PO, 128 A, 5 E, 101 DP Pujols: 1,380.67 Inn, 1,619 Ch, 1,458 PO, 157 A, 4 E, 146 DP Here are their fielding comparisons relative to their first quartiles: Votto: -44.18 assisted PO, -4.91 unassisted PO, +48.56 A, +1.03 E, -5.39 DP Pujols: +168.3 assisted PO, +18.7 unassisted PO, +71.52 A, -.27 E, +31.51 DP And lastly here are their baserunning comparisons: Votto: 16 SB, 5 CS, 76.19% Pujols: 14 SB, 4 CS, 77.78% Baseball Reference WAR had Votto at 7.0 and Pujols at 7.5. FanGraphs WAR had Votto at 6.9 and Pujols at 6.8, 1st and 2nd in the NL respectively. The worst overall player in the NL was Jorge Cantu, first and third baseman for the Florida Marlins & Texas Rangers, with a total Player Value of -48.29. Cantu played 97 games in the NL with the Marlins and 30 games in the AL with the Rangers. The worst player that solely played in the NL was Pedro Feliz, first and third baseman for the Houston Astros & St. Louis Cardinals, with a total Player Value of -44.19. Cantu had a bWAR of -1 and an fWAR of -.5, while Feliz had a bWAR of -0.4 and an fWAR of -2.3, the worst in the NL. AL Actual Winner: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers, Left Field AL Player Value Winner: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees, Second Base Cano finished 3rd in MLB and 1st in the AL with a total Player Value of 64.45. Cano has no actual MVPs in his career, so this would be his first. Hamilton finished 4th in MLB and 2nd in the AL with a total Player Value of 59.55. You may recall that Hamilton was a Red and nearly the NL Rookie of the Year in 2007 before being traded for Edison Volquez. So the Reds could have had both of the MVPs on their team in 2010. At least Player Value makes it so that it would only be both of the almost MVPs on their team. Here's how Hamilton and Cano compare by their Player Value components: Hamilton: 48.48 Batting Value, 0.57 Baserunning Value, 10.50 Fielding Value Cano: 35.99 Batting Value, -0.34 Baserunning Value, 28.81 Fielding Value Hamilton also had the highest Batting Value in the AL, which further shows how MVP voters are biased towards offensive performance. Cano was just a slightly worse hitter but a superior defender, relative to his position. Here how they compare by their Player Value components, in rate form: Hamilton: -.0085 Batting Value Average, .0900 Baserun Value Average, .0814 Fielding Value Average Cano: -.0489 Batting Value Average, -.0660 Baserun Value Average, .1898 Fielding Value Average Hamilton's First-Quartile: -.1016 BatVA, -.0531 BaseVA, .0723 FieldVA Cano's First-Quartile: -.1107 BatVA, -.0671 BaseVA, .1700 FieldVA Here are their AVG, OBP, SLG, OPS, and wOBA first quartile comparisons: Hamilton: .359 vs .259, .411 vs .331, .633 vs .384, 1.044 vs .724, .445 vs .322 Cano: .319 vs .267, .381 vs .329, .534 vs .375, .914 vs .700, .391 vs .311 Here are their traditional counting batting stats: Hamilton: 571 PA, 111 1B, 40 2B, 3 3B, 32 HR, 100 RBI, 38 uBB, 5 IBB, 5 HBP, 1 SH, 4 SF, 95 SO, 11 GIDP Cano: 696 PA, 127 1B, 41 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 109 RBI, 43 uBB, 14 IBB, 8 HBP, 0 SH, 5 SF, 77 SO, 19 GIDP Here are their batting comparisons relative to their first quartiles: Hamilton: +30.55 1B, +17.17 2B, +1.08 3B, +24.29 HR, +.24 uBB, +12.63 SO, +3.93 IBB, +2.57 HBP, +.76 SH, +1.66 SF, +4.97 GIDP, -12.3 other Outs Cano: +19.45 1B, +13.14 2B, +1.65 3B, +21.7 HR, -2.39 uBB, -3.08 SO, +13.71 IBB, +3.67 HBP, -1.54 SH, +1.93 SF, +9.76 GIDP, +10.68 other Outs Here are their fielding percentage, RFG, and RF9 comparisons to first quartiles: Hamilton: .9850 vs .9835, 1.99 vs 1.84, 2.29 vs 2.00 Cano: .9960 vs .9803, 4.89 vs 4.29, 4.99 vs 4.66 Here are their traditional counting fielding stats: Hamilton: 1,034.67 Inn, 267 Ch, 254 PO, 9 A, 4 E, 2 DP Cano: 1,393.33 Inn, 776 Ch, 341 PO, 432 A, 3 E, 114 DP Here are their fielding comparisons relative to their first quartiles: Hamilton: +31.94 PO, +5.82 A, +2.61 E, +2 DP Cano: +50.18 PO, +27.81 A, -3.8 E, +23.19 DP And lastly here are their baserunning comparisons: Hamilton: 8 SB, 1 CS, 88.89% Cano: 3 SB, 2 CS, 60% Baseball Reference WAR has Hamilton at 8.7 and Cano at 8.1, while FanGraphs WAR has Hamilton at 8.4 and Cano at 6.4. Hamilton led all of MLB and the AL in fWAR. The worst overall player in the AL was Brandon Wood, third baseman and shortstop for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, with a total Player Value of -34.18. He had a bWAR of -1.5 and an fWAR of -1.7. Adam Moore of the Seattle Mariners had the worst fWAR at -2.4, and he had a total Player Value of -23.31. Now I will dive into 1st-team and 2nd-team selections for both the AL and NL, as well as MLB overall. Each starting position gets one spot, besides pitchers. Starting pitchers get 5 spots, as is the usual rotation size. Relief pitchers get two spots, and closers get one spot. I've also added a miscellaneous spot for safety, which will be used by diverse outfielders that didn't play at least 50% of their games at one outfield position, utility players that didn't play at least 50% of their games at any one position, outfielders that finish in the top 6 among all outfielders but not among the top 2 in a specific outfield position, or relievers/closers that finish in the top 6 among relievers/closers but not among the top 4 relievers or top 2 closers. The flexibility is intended so that every year there's hopefully at least somebody that qualifies, and this prevents worthy guys from being left out. This safety spot will only be used for the NL and AL teams. For the MLB, I'll put the safety player where I think makes the most sense, if he qualifies. Here are your teams, with each player's total Player Value and WAR (as calculated by Baseball Reference), for reference. FIRST-TEAM NL C: Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs, 33.75 Player Value, 3.3 WAR 1B: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, 76.45 Player Value, 7.5 WAR 2B: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies, 42.39 Player Value, 5.8 WAR 3B: Scott Rolen, Cincinnati Reds, 28.96 Player Value, 4.1 WAR SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies, 76.10 Player Value, 6.7 WAR LF: Matt Holliday, St. Louis Cardinals, 35.70 Player Value, 5.9 WAR CF: Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks, 32.07 Player Value, 5.4 WAR RF: Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds, 29.04 Player Value, 4.7 WAR SP1: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals, 38.42 Player Value, 6.4 WAR SP2: Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves, 28.96 Player Value, 6.0 WAR SP3: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies, 22.91 Player Value, 8.3 WAR SP4: Roy Oswalt, Houston Astros & Philladelphia Phillies, 22.82 Player Value, 5.7 WAR SP5: Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado Rockies, 21.89 Player Value, 7.3 WAR RP1: Evan Meek, Pittsburgh Pirates, 19.80 Player Value, 2.5 WAR RP2: Luke Gregorson, San Diego Padres, 18.26 Player Value, 0.4 WAR CP: Billy Wagner, Atlanta Braves, 13.77 Player Value, 2.5 WAR Misc: Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies, 35.80 Player Value, 5.9 WAR Carlos Gonzalez finished 3rd in MLB and 1st in the NL among outfielders, but he did not play more than 50% of his games at any specific outfield position. SECOND-TEAM NL C: Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves, 32.40 Player Value, 3.6 WAR 1B: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds, 48.79 Player Value, 7.0 WAR 2B: Kelly Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks, 38.01 Player Value, 4.3 WAR 3B: David Wright, New York Mets, 26.93 Player Value, 2.8 WAR SS: Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks, 33.67 Player Value, 4.0 WAR LF: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers, 30.36 Player Value, 5.7 WAR CF: Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates, 28.42 Player Value, 3.8 WAR RF: Jayson Werth, Philadelphia Phillies, 20.26 Player Value, 4.5 WAR SP1: R.A. Dickey, New York Mets, 21.86 Player Value, 4.2 WAR SP2: Chris Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals, 19.55 Player Value, 2.7 WAR SP3: Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins, 18.92 Player Value, 6.6 WAR SP4: Yovanni Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers, 18.41 Player Value, 3.1 WAR SP5: Mat Latos, San Diego Padres, 16.92 Player Value, 3.1 WAR RP1: Hung-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers, 14.93 Player Value, 3.3 WAR RP2: Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros, 13.13 Player Value, 1.7 WAR CP: Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs, 12.50 Player Value, 2.7 WAR Misc: Omar Infante, Atlanta Braves, 16.16 Player Value, 3.1 WAR Omar Infante finished 1st in MLB and in the NL among utility players that didn't play at least 50% of their games at any specific position. FIRST-TEAM AL C: Victor Martinez, Boston Red Sox, 17.57 Player Value, 3.6 WAR 1B: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers, 43.71 Player Value, 6.5 WAR 2B: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees, 64.45 Player Value, 8.1 WAR 3B: Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox, 35.88 Player Value, 7.8 WAR SS: Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, 37.82 Player Value, 5.6 WAR LF: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers, 59.55 Player Value, 8.7 WAR CF: Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles, 23.47 Player Value, 2.5 WAR RF: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays, 35.23 Player Value, 7.0 WAR DH: Jim Thome, Minnesota Twins, 20.06 Player Value, 3.6 WAR SP1: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners, 41.50 Player Value, 7.1 WAR SP2: Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics, 28.63 Player Value, 3.9 WAR SP3: Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox, 27.38 Player Value, 5.7 WAR SP4: Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners & Texas Rangers, 26.44 Player Value, 3.5 WAR SP5: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers, 24.68 Player Value, 4.3 WAR RP1: Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays, 12.00 Player Value, 1.8 WAR RP2: Brian Duensing, Minnesota Twins, 11.41 Player Value, 3.6 WAR CP: Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees, 14.91 Player Value, 2.4 WAR SECOND-TEAM AL C: Jose Molina, Toronto Blue Jays, 11.27 1B: Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox, 40.38 Player Value, 4.7 WAR 2B: Orlando Hudson, Minnesota Twins, 22.41 Player Value, 2.9 WAR 3B: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays, 34.46 Player Value, 8.2 WAR SS: Cliff Pennington, Oakland Athletics, 28.62 Player Value, 4.5 WAR LF: Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays, 45.92 Player Value, 7.0 WAR CF: Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays, 19.72 Player Value, 4.0 WAR RF: Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers, 33.51 Player Value, 4.1 WAR DH: Luke Scott, Baltimore Orioles, 14.96 Player Value, 3.8 WAR SP1: John Danks, Chicago White Sox, 23.83 Player Value, 5.1 WAR SP2: Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox, 23.49 Player Value, 5.2 WAR SP3: David Price, Tampa Bay Rays, 22.81 Player Value, 4.7 WAR SP4: C.J. Wilson, Texas Rangers, 22.31 Player Value, 4.9 WAR SP5: Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, 21.66 Player Value, 5.3 WAR RP1: Joaquin Benoit, Tampa Bay Rays, 10.96 Player Value, 2.2 WAR RP2: Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox, 9.81 Player Value, 3.1 WAR CP: Rafael Soriano, Tampa Bay Rays, 12.18 Player Value, 2.1 WAR Misc: Brett Gardner, New York Yankees, 23.43 Player Value, 7.4 WAR Misc: Joakim Soria, Kanas City Royals, 11.10 Player Value, 3.7 WAR Brett Gardner finished 6th in the AL among outfielders. This is applicable if we were to measure the 1st and 2nd teams by the top 3/6 outfielders in general, rather than the best LF, CF, and RF. Joakim Soria finished 5th in the AL among relievers/closers, but 3rd in the AL among closers. FIRST-TEAM MLB C: Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs, 33.75 Player Value, 3.3 WAR 1B: Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals, 76.45 Player Value, 7.5 WAR 2B: Robinson Cano, New York Yankees, 64.45 Player Value, 8.1 WAR 3B: Adrian Beltre, Boston Red Sox, 35.88 Player Value, 7.8 WAR SS: Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado Rockies, 76.10 Player Value, 6.7 WAR LF: Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers, 59.55 Player Value, 8.7 WAR CF: Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies, 35.80 Player Value, 5.9 WAR RF: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays, 35.23 Player Value, 7.0 WAR DH: Jim Thome, Minnesota Twins, 20.06 Player Value, 3.6 WAR SP1: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners, 41.50 Player Value, 7.1 WAR SP2: Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals, 38.42 Player Value, 6.4 WAR SP3: Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves, 28.96 Player Value, 6.0 WAR SP4: Trevor Cahill, Oakland Athletics, 28.63 Player Value, 3.9 WAR SP5: Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox, 27.38 Player Value, 5.7 WAR RP1: Evan Meek, Pittsburgh Pirates, 19.80 Player Value, 2.5 WAR RP2: Luke Gregorson, San Diego Padres, 18.26 Player Value, 0.4 WAR CP: Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees, 14.91 Player Value, 2.4 WAR Carlos Gonzalez had a LF/CF/RF split of 39%/36%/25%, so he was very nearly perfectly split between all outfield positions. Given his frequent CF playing time and the fact that Chris Young had the lowest Player Value among the specific outfield position leaders, I decided to make Cargo the 1st-team CF and move Young to the 2nd-team. This squad has a total Player Value of 655.14, a mean Player Value of 38.54, and a median Player Value of 35.23. WAR doesn't like Gregorson or Cahill as much, but agrees for the most part. SECOND-TEAM MLB C: Brian McCann, Atlanta Braves, 32.40 Player Value, 3.6 WAR 1B: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds, 48.79 Player Value, 7.0 WAR 2B: Chase Utley, Philadelphia Phillies, 42.39 Player Value, 5.8 WAR 3B: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays, 34.46 Player Value, 8.2 WAR SS: Alexei Ramirez, Chicago White Sox, 37.82 Player Value, 5.6 WAR LF: Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays, 45.92 Player Value, 7.0 WAR CF: Chris Young, Arizona Diamondbacks, 32.07 Player Value, 5.4 WAR RF: Nelson Cruz, Texas Rangers, 33.51 Player Value, 4.1 WAR SP1: Cliff Lee, Seattle Mariners & Texas Rangers, 26.44 Player Value, 3.5 WAR SP2: Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers, 24.68 Player Value, 4.3 WAR SP3: John Danks, Chicago White Sox, 23.83 Player Value, 5.1 WAR SP4: Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox, 23.49 Player Value, 5.2 WAR SP5: Roy Halladay, Philadelphia Phillies, 22.91 Player Value, 8.3 WAR RP1: Hung-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers, 14.93 Player Value, 3.3 WAR RP2: Brandon Lyon, Houston Astros, 13.13 Player Value, 1.7 WAR CP: Billy Wagner, Atlanta Braves, 13.77 Player Value, 2.5 WAR As mentioned above, due to Carlos Gonzalez being the better overall player and his positional diversity, Chris Young gets demoted to 2nd-team MLB despite being the best majority CF in both leagues. Andrew McCutchen, the 2nd best majority CF in both leagues, gets excluded from 2nd-team MLB for this reason as well. Since the NL didn't have a DH in 2010, I didn't make a 2nd-team MLB spot for the DH, so Luke Scott misses out there. This squad has a total Player Value of 485.49, a mean Player Value of 28.56, and a median Player Value of 26.44. WAR doesn't like Lee as much, and likes Halladay much more. To get a better idea for how Player Value looks across the board for all positions, let's also create a team of the worst guys at each position, as well as a team for the guys that are closest to the first-quartile-quality player at each position: WORST-TEAM MLB C: Jason Kendall, Kansas City Royals, -25.12 Player Value, 0.5 WAR 1B: Casey Kotchman, Seattle Mariners, -19.36 Player Value, -0.8 WAR 2B: Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners, -30.35 Player Value, 1.2 WAR 3B: Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins & Texas Rangers, -48.29 Player Value, -1.5 WAR SS: Everth Cabrera, San Diego Padres, -16.95 Player Value, 0.1 WAR LF: Carlos Lee, Houston Astros, -36.07 Player Value, -2.2 WAR CF: Tony Gwynn Jr., San Diego Padres, -18.95 Player Value, 2.2 WAR RF: Jeff Francoeur, New York Mets & Texas Rangers, -18.46 Player Value, 1.1 WAR DH: Adam Lind, Toronto Blue Jays, -23.51 Player Value, -1.0 WAR SP1: Rodrigo Lopez, Arizona Diamondbacks, -29.84 Player Value, -1.2 WAR SP2: Ryan Rowland-Smith, Seattle Mariners, -29.78 Player Value, -2.7 WAR SP3: Zach Duke, Pittsburgh Pirates, -25.49 Player Value, -1.3 WAR SP4: Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh Pirates, -23.59 Player Value, -2.6 WAR SP5: Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers, -23.32 Player Value, -0.4 WAR RP1: Blake Hawksworth, St. Louis Cardinals, -19.50 Player Value, -1.2 WAR RP2: Chad Gaudin, Oakland Athletics & New York Yankees, -17.00 Player Value, -1.0 WAR CP: Alfredo Simon, Baltimore Orioles, -7.27 Player Value, -0.4 WAR This squad has a total Player Value of -412.85, a mean Player Value of -24.29, and a median Player Value of -23.51. This was Simon's lone season in a closer role, but given his years as a Red I'm not surprised to see him as one of the worst pitchers here. Lee was at the end of his career; he hit 24 homers, but batted just .246 and wasn't a walk-machine either, in addition to being a poor fielder. Kendall was also winding down his career, while Morton was just getting started. WAR likes Gwynn Jr., Figgins, and Francoeur more. FIRST (QUARTILE)-TEAM MLB C: Henry Blanco, New York Mets, 0.23 Player Value, 0.0 WAR 1B: Ross Gload, Philadelphia Phillies, 0.54 Player Value, 0.3 WAR 2B: Luis Valbuena, Cleveland Indians, -0.29 Player Value, 0.0 WAR 3B: David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals, -0.29 Player Value, 0.7 WAR SS: Jerry Hairston Jr., San Diego Padres, 0.37 Player Value, 1.2 WAR LF: Juan Pierre, Chicago White Sox, 0.16 Player Value, 0.3 WAR CF: Mike Cameron, Boston Red Sox, 0.87 Player Value, 0.1 WAR RF: Andruw Jones, Chicago White Sox, -0.06 Player Value, 1.9 WAR DH: Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians, 1.55 Player Value, 2.4 WAR SP1: Alex Sanabia, Florida Marlins, 0.20 Player Value, 0.1 WAR SP2: Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays, -0.23 Player Value, 1.8 WAR SP3: Bruce Chen, Kansas City Royals, -0.25 Player Value, 3.0 WAR SP4: Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians, 0.26 Player Value, 0.4 WAR SP5: James McDonald, Los Angeles Dodgers & Pittsburgh Pirates, 0.32 Player Value, -0.3 WAR RP1: Shawn Camp, Toronto Blue Jays, -0.01 Player Value, 1.7 WAR RP2: Jason Berken, Baltimore Orioles, 0.02 Player Value, 1.3 WAR CP: Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds, 0.23 Player Value, 0.3 WAR I tried to set some basic playing time requirements so that we'd get a team of full-time first-quartile quality players, rather than just a bunch of players that hardly played. This squad has a total Player Value of 3.61, a mean Player Value of 0.21, and a median Player Value of 0.20. Mainly forgetful players, but Pierre, Cameron, and Jones were all towards the end of their careers. Cordero had 40 saves, but a 3.84 ERA as a closer. Hairston Jr. spent some time as a Red and he is the "meh" type of player that I think is really indicative of first-quartile quality. WAR likes Hairston Jr., Camp, Berken, Morrow, Chen, Hafner, and Jones much more than Player Value does. These guys are the borderline acceptable players; anyone consistently playing worse needs some concentrated training, a position change, or to be removed from the team. Just want a list of the top 25 players in MLB in 2010, regardless of position? If so, then here ya go: TOP 25 PLAYERS IN MLB 1. Albert Pujols, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals, 76.45 Player Value 2. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies, 76.10 Player Value 3. Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees, 64.45 Player Value 4. Josh Hamilton, LF/CF, Texas Rangers, 59.55 Player Value 5. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds, 48.79 Player Value 6. Carl Crawford, LF, Tampa Bay Rays, 45.92 Player Value 7. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers, 43.71 Player Value 8. Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies, 42.39 Player Value 9. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners, 41.50 Player Value 10. Paul Konerko, 1B/DH, Chicago White Sox, 40.38 Player Value 11. Aubrey Huff, 1B/LF/RF, San Francisco Giants, 38.75 Player Value 12. Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis Cardinals, 38.42 Player Value 13. Kelly Johnson, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks, 38.01 Player Value 14. Alexei Ramirez, SS, Chicago White Sox, 37.82 Player Value 15. Rickie Weeks, SS, Milwaukee Brewers, 35.91 Player Value 16. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Boston Red Sox, 35.88 Player Value 17. Carlos Gonzalez, LF/CF/RF, Colorado Rockies, 35.80 Player Value 18. Matt Holliday, LF, St. Louis Cardinals, 35.70 Player Value 19. Dan Uggla, 2B, Florida Marlins, 35.24 Player Value 20. Jose Bautista, RF/3B, Toronto Blue Jays, 35.23 Player Value 21. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays, 34.46 Player Value 22. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins, 34.14 Player Value 23. Geovany Soto, C, Chicago Cubs, 33.75 Player Value 24. Stephen Drew, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks, 33.67 Player Value 25. Nelson Cruz, RF/LF, Texas Rangers, 33.51 Player Value BASERUNNING VALUE Up until now I've neglected sharing any baserunning results because it makes up an insignificant portion of a player's total Player Value, for most players. Currently only stealing is incorporated into Baserunning Value. Players get +.15 for each stolen base and -.39 for each caught stealing. Like usual, players are compared to their positional first-quartile. The best baserunner in 2010 was Ichiro Suzuki of the Seattle Mariners, with a Baserunning Value of 3.69. He stole 42 bases and was caught 9 times, which is an 82.35% clip, well above his positional first-quartile of 51.29%. Baseball Reference has Ichiro with an Rbaser of 3, which is their baserunning component of bWAR. FanGraphs had Ichiro with an UBR of -1.3, a wGDP of 1.8, and a wSB of 4.1, for a total of 4.6 baserunning runs. wSB is the closest thing to what Baserunning Value is currently measuring, since I lack additional baserunning data at the moment. Ichiro ranked 8th in wSB in 2010. The player with the highest wSB was Juan Pierre of the Chicago White Sox at 5.7, who stole 68 bases and was caught 18 times. That's a clip of 79.07%, compared to his first-quartile of 60.80%. Pierre had a Baserunning Value of 0.86. The 2nd most Baserunning Value was Coco Crisp of the Oakland Athletics at 2.64, who stolen 32 bases and was caught 3 times, a clip of 91.43% compared to his first-quartile of 61.65%. FanGraphs has him at a wSB of 4.9, the 5th most overall. Crisp's Rbaser was 7 according to Baseball Reference. The worst baserunner in 2010 was Matt Kemp of the Los Angeles Dodgers with a Baserunning Value of -3.98. He stole 19 bases but was caught a whopping 15 times, giving him a clip of just 55.88% comapred to the center field first-quartile of 62.50%. He has the 2nd lowest wSB according to FanGraphs at -2.7. Beating him out was Torii Hunter of the Los Angeles Angeles with a wSB of -3.5, who had a Baserunning Value of -3.60, the 2nd worst. Hunter stole 9 bases and was caught 12 times, a clip of 42.86% vs his positional first-quartile of 55.65%. So at best, a player's Baserunning Value can add 3-4 runs and at worst it can take away 3-4 runs. Once I get more baserunning data and improve this portion of the metric the magnitudes will be a little higher, but nobody's gonna win the MVP or become a quality player solely based on their baserunning. PITCHING VALUE BY POSITION Like I did for Fielding Value and Batting Value, I'll now show that Pitching Value isn't particularly biased towards certain pitching roles. Here are the boxplots of Pitching Value by role in 2010: Since relievers are compared to relievers and starters are compared to starters, the best relievers are still able to have a quality Pitching Value. WAR needs to really on Leverage Index for the best relievers to be better than even average starters. Here we see that the best relievers compare favorably to the better starters. The best starters will still generally have a higher Pitching Value, since starters log so much more innings. Also, relief pitchers are able to have good Pitching Value and compare favorably to closers. Note that when comparing to first-quartiles, the AL and NL are separated for pitchers unlike any of the other positions, since in 2010 (and all seasons from 1973-2021) NL pitchers batted but AL pitchers typically didn't. It would be unfair to compare an NL pitcher that bats to an AL pitcher that doesn't, since the NL pitcher could add to his total Player Value via Batting Value, but the AL pitcher couldn't. For 2022 and on (when both leagues have a DH), as well as for 1972 and earlier (when there is no DH in either league), pitchers will be compared at a MLB level, rather than by league. This split also makes sense because NL pitchers had the benefit of pitching to other pitchers, while AL pitchers had to pitch to designated hitters that were much better at batting. Here are the summary statistics of Pitching Value by role: On average starters and relievers are about the same, and the best relievers can easily be among the top 25% of starters. PITCHING VALUE BY TEAM Since Pitching Value correlates well with runs allowed per game, then we'd expect teams that have players with the most Pitching Value to be the ones that allowed the least runs. Recall from my original Player Value post that Pitching Value Average can describe 84.62% of a team's runs allowed per game. Here are the boxplots of Pitching Value by team in 2010: Looks like the Pirates had terrible pitching, and they went 57-105 in 2010. The Padres and Braves appear to have had quality pitching, and they went 90-72 and 91-71, respectively. And here are the summary statistics of Pitching Value by team in 2010: Sure enough, the Padres and Braves had the best pitchers on average. Also up there were the Cardinals who went 86-76, and the Giants who went 92-70 and went on to win the World Series. The Pirates were indeed the worst, and also down there were the 65-97 Dbacks, and the 67-95 Royals. But the Rangers also grade poorly and went 90-72 and appeared in the World Series. The A's graded pretty well but went just 81-81. Let's cap it off by viewing the runs allowed by team in 2010: Sure enough, the Pirates, Dbacks, and Royals were among the leaders in runs allowed. The teams with the fewest runs allowed were the Padres, Cardinals, Athletics, Giants, and Braves. A team's average Pitching Value appears very indicative of its runs allowed. PLAYER VALUE BY POSITION And now we will finally wrap everything up, showing that total Player Value is not particularly biased towards any certain position. Here are the boxplots of Player Value by position: All positions have similar medians. Some positions have larger spreads and outliers, but this could likely just be a construct of 2010 in particular. The smaller spreads of RPs and DHs is probably due to those positions not being as valuable in general, due to not pitching as many innings and not playing defense. And here are the summary statistics of Player Value by position: These values can serve as a baseline for what makes a good/bad Player Value at each position. Across all positions, players with a total Player Value of about 3.04 or more were among the top 25% of players. A total Player Value of 12.51 or more is the top 10%, 19.85 is the top 5%, and 37.88 is the top 1%. Conversely, players with a total Player Value of about -5.08 or less were among the bottom 25%, -10.51 is the bottom 10%, -14.94 is the bottom 5%, and -23.54 is the bottom 1%. In general, a Player Value of 20 serves as a rough baseline across all positions for an All-Star quality player. A Player Value of 40 serves as a rough baseline across all positions for an MVP-vote-receiving quality player. PLAYER VALUE BY TEAM Since a team's Player Value correlates well with its run differential per game, then we'd expect that the teams that have players with the most Player Value will be the ones that have the highest run differentials. Recall from my original Player Value post that Batting Value Average and Baserunning Value Average can describe 92.37% of a team's runs scored per game, while Fielding Value Average and Pitching Value Average can describe 86.1% of a team's runs allowed per game. These should also be the teams that win the most, since run differential per game correlates well with winning percentage (wins per game). Run differential per game can describe 89.31% of a team's winning percentage. Here are the boxplots of Player Value by team in 2010: A little hard to pick some of the teams out, but I can see that the 57-105 Pirates are towards the bottom, as are the 66-97 Orioles and the 61-101 Mariners. On the higher end looks to be the 91-71 Braves, the 91-71 Reds, the 94-68 Twins, and the 90-72 Padres. Here are the summary statistics of Player Value by team in 2010: Feel free to compare these side by side with the 2010 MLB standings here. We see the aforementioned Braves, Reds, and Twins with higher means. Also up there are the 86-76 Cardinals, the 97-65 Phillies, the 95-67 Yankees, the 89-73 Red Sox, and the 96-66 Rays. The Rockies had a pretty high average Player Value but went just 83-79. The Padres and Giants were pretty middle of the road but went 90-72 and 92-70. Recall that Pitching Value graded them appropriately, so it could be the case that Fielding Value is dominating the runs allowed explanation more than it should. We also see the aforementioned Orioles, Pirates, and Mariners with lower means. Also down there are the 67-95 Royals, the 69-93 Indians, the 69-93 Nationals, and the 65-97 Diamondbacks. The Angels and Astros had pretty low average Player Values but were able to go 80-82 and 76-86. Here is the run differential by team in 2010: Not surprising at this point, we see the Pirates, Orioles, Dbacks, Royals, and Mariners in the deep negatives. Astros are down there too, despite a near .500 record. Braves, Reds, Twins, Yankees, Phillies, Padres, Giants, Cardinals, Rays, Rangers in the higher positives. Here is the winning percentage by team in 2010, as well as the win differential by team in 2010: It comes to no surprise that we see the same teams towards the bottom and top. If we compare the run differential graph to the win differential graph, we see that the Rockies, Astros, Athletics, and Cardinals are some of the anomalies. For these teams it appears that it's not that Player Value is wrong at explaining a team's run differential, but rather that these teams just had a disconnect between their run differential and their winning percentage. They likely had some games where they got blown out or blew another team out; this has a larger impact on their run differential, but the same effect as any other win or loss on their win differential. I hope I have been able to show the value of Player Value as a metric! Player Value is measured in runs. Teams with a higher average Player Value are generally the same teams with higher run differentials and higher winning percentages. Teams with a lower average Player Value are generally the same teams with lower run differentials and lower winning percentages. If you want to be good, grab those guys with higher Player Values, and dump those guys with lower Player Values! FILES Time for the file dump! First, a note on the calculation of the first-quartile for each position. I do NOT include every single player at each position in the first-quartile. Rather, I create a subset of players based on playing time requirements. The idea is to get the starting players at each position for each team. I used the requirements of winning a Gold Glove as a baseline, which you can read about here. For the Gold Glove, position players must play in 698 innings by their team's 138th game. 138 games is equal to 1,242 total innings, so the requirement is about 56.2% of innings through the 138th game. I don't get or agree with the 138th game cutoff, so instead I extend this out to 162 games, which is 1,458 total innings. That makes the requirement 698/1458 = 47.9% of innings. For catchers, the requirement is 69 games by their team's 138th game, which is 50% of games. Extending this to 162 games, we get 69/162 = 42.6% of games or innings. With those requirements as a baseline, I set the first-quartile playing time requirement for position players to 45% of total season innings. Additionally, I required that a player played at least 70% of their innings at the position in question. Guys like Jose Bautista that had a 69%/29% split between RF/3B could greatly mess with their position's first-quartile since the fielding dynamics of different positions can be very different. Bautista had 112 assists (mainly due to his time at 3B), much more than most rightfielders, so his inclusion in the RF first-quartile calculation would greatly skew the results. Since Bautista gets his own first-quartile calculation based on his positional proportion split, we avoid having skewed results when comparing him to other rightfielders. Since DHs don't play in the field, the requirement is based on 45% of season games, rather than innings. The Gold Glove requirement for pitchers is 138 innings by their team's 138th game. Extending to 162 games or 1,458 innings, that's 138/1458 = 9.5% of total innings. That seemed like a round enough amount, so I set the first-quartile playing time requirement for starting pitchers to 9.50% of total season innings. We need a distinct first-quartile for relievers though, and you'll be hard pressed to find a relief pitcher that reaches 138 innings. I looked at the percent of total starters that reach 138 innings and used that to find an equivalent threshold for relievers. This came out to me setting the first-quartile playing time requirement for relief pitchers to 2.375% of total season innings. A typical good starter will log you about 200 innings, while a typical good reliever will log you about 50 innings. Since relievers pitch about 1/4 of the innings, I set their threshold at 1/4 of 9.5%, which is 2.375%. 9.5% of all innings is 138 innings, and 2.375% of all innings is 34.5 innings. The median number of innings for starters in 2010 was 137.8, and for relievers was 30. Using the thresholds described above, 49.5% of starters qualified and 46.3% of relievers qualified. The below files show the players that were used for the first-quartile calculation for each position:
The files below show the first-quartile values for the different positions. I used these to show the offensive expectations by position for my Batting Value post and the defensive expectations by position for my Fielding Value post.
The files below are the sort of "master files" for the 2010 Player Value example. They have the data for basically all of the things I've shared. The "2010PlayerValues" file will be of particular interest. It has the batting, baserunning, fielding, and appearance data for every position player in 2010. It also has their per opportunity values, how they compare to the first-quartile, and all of the components of Player Value. I've highlighted the Gold Glove winners, Silver Slugger winners, and the members of the 1st team, 2nd team, Worst team, and 1st-Quartile team. The "2010PitcherValues" file is basically the equivalent for pitchers, but the "2010pitchersComb" file has the different teams. That file combines the pitcher seasons of the AL and the NL, which is necessary for any pitcher that played part of their season in the AL and part in the NL. The main pitcher changes of 2010 of Oswalt and Lee remained in the same league, so this isn't that big of a deal. One example would be Jake Westbrook, who played for the Indians and the Cardinals. The "2010allplayerTotalPlayerValue" file combines the position players and the pitchers for a definitive list of the best players in 2010, according to Player Value.
Lastly, the R files below show how I processed all of this data and calculated Player Value for each player. Shout out to the Lahman package/dataset for providing the baseline player data. You'll need R/RStudio to be able to run the code and replicate the data. The first one is for the position players, the second one is for the pitchers, and the third one combines them to create some of the plots from above and the "2010allplayerTotalPlayerValue" file above. The "Yearly_wOBA_weights" workbook is read in by the R files, so it is needed as well. That file is essentially just a download from the FanGraphs Guts! page, which you can find here. The last file I posted in my initial Player Value post, but it shows the work behind the assumption that 90% of first base putouts are assisted, and that 93% of catcher putouts are via strikeout.
The file below is a summary list of the different award winners for 2010, according to Player Value.
Well, another lengthy post down, but that wraps up the rollout of the 2010 example season for Player Value. I will certainly go into less detail when sharing the results of the other seasons! The goal here was to display how Player Value is a quality measure of, well, the value of players. It tracks similarly but still distinctly to WAR, explains a team's ability to win well, and is a much simpler and more transparent metric.
I imagine my next post will be applying Player Value to the 2022 season to see how the Judge vs Ohtani discussion plays out. The 2022 season won't be in the Lahman dataset yet, so I'll have to grab all the data in a more manual way. After that, as I mentioned under my blurb about Austin Jackson above, I'm working on getting more data to use for Baserunning Value to improve it. I also look forward to updating and fine tuning my Hall of Fame predictive model. Thank you everyone for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments below! Statting Lineup Newsletter Signup Form: If you'd like to receive email updates for each new post that I make, sign up for the Statting Lineup newsletter using the link below: https://weebly.us18.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=ab653f474b2ced9091eb248b1&id=3a60f3b85f |
Statting Lineup Newsletter Signup Form:
|