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The official BBWAA election results for the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot will be announced on January 25th. While members of the BBWAA have the privilege to cast votes for who they think belong in Cooperstown, many baseball fans are left to only hypothetically share who they would vote for if given the chance. Below I share which players I would vote for, which players I wouldn't vote for (at least this year), and why. INCLUDED ON MY BALLOT THIS YEAR: 1. Curt Schilling - SP Curt Schilling is my first 'automatic' selection. The official rules of election don't technically permit such automatic elections (baseballhall.org/hall-of-famers/rules/bbwaa-rules-for-election) but I personally think that is a bunch of baloney. Historically, certain career marks have been guarantees for induction. One such milestone is 3,000 strikeouts, which only 19 pitchers have done in history. Of these, 2 are active players (Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander), 1 is not eligible for the ballot yet (C.C. Sabathia), and 1 used steroids (Roger Clemens). Of the remaining 15 pitchers with 3,000 or more strikeouts, 14 of them are in the Hall of Fame and the other is Curt Schilling. Schilling's 3,116 career K's are good for 15th all-time, more than Hall of Famer John Smoltz's career total in about 200 less innings, and just 1 less than Hall of Famer Bob Gibson's career total in about 600 less innings. Schilling's career WAR of 79.5 is 26th best among starting pitchers and the most of any starting pitcher not in the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Clemens. Schilling also rocks an impressive 6 All-Star game seasons, 3 World Series, and a World Series MVP. While he never won a Cy Young award, he did come in 2nd place three times and in 4th place once. People like to rag on Schilling's character, which is admittedly deplorable, but other despicable men that were good at baseball such as Ty Cobb are already enshrined. The Hall contains the best baseball players in history, and Curt Schilling is clearly one of them and therefore should be inducted. 2. David Ortiz - DH/1B David Ortiz is my second automatic selection due to reaching the impressive feat of over 500 career home runs. 28 different players in history have hit 500 or more homers, 2 of which are still active (Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera). 7 of these players have obvious connections to steroid use, namely Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield. Of the remaining 19 players with 500 or more career home runs, 18 are in the Hall of Fame and the other is David Ortiz. While Ortiz allegedly tested positive in 2003 according to the New York Times, this was before any of his All-Star seasons and he consistently tested negative each season for the remainder of his career. Ortiz's 541 career home runs are good for 17th all-time, and his 1,768 RBI are good for 23rd all-time. All players with more career RBI either used steroids, are active players, or are in the Hall of Fame. Though he retired at age 40, Ortiz likely could have padded his stats even more by playing a few more seasons, as he arguably had the greatest final season by a player ever. In his final year he smashed a whopping 38 home runs while batting .315 and led the league in doubles (48), RBI (127), slugging (.620), and OPS (1.021) in route to finishing 6th in MVP voting and securing his 10th All-Star game and 7th Silver Slugger award. Just like Schilling, Ortiz won 3 World Series and a World Series MVP award. He never won a regular season MVP, but finished in the top 5 in voting 5 times. Clearly, Ortiz is worthy of inclusion into the Hall of Fame. 3. Omar Vizquel - SS Another one of my automatic qualifiers is a player obtaining 3,000 career hits, a feat accomplished by just 32 people in history. Of those, 1 player is active (Albert Pujols), 2 players used steroids (Alex Rodriguez and Rafael Palmeiro), 1 player is banned for gambling (Pete Rose), and 2 players are not yet eligible for the ballot (Adrian Beltre and Ichiro Suzuki). The remaining 26 players are all in the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for Vizquel, he came up just short of the 3,000 hit mark. His 2,877 career hits are good for the 44th most all-time and if not inducted Vizquel would have the most career hits of any non-steroid-using player not in the Hall of Fame. Among shortstops, Vizquel has the 6th most hits all-time and everyone ahead of him either used steroids or is in the Hall of Fame. While his 3 All-Star game appearances are relatively unimpressive by Cooperstown standards, his 11 Gold Glove awards are the 2nd most all-time by a shortstop, only behind Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith's 13 Gold Gloves. Across all positions, Vizquel is tied for the 7th most Gold Gloves in history with first basemen Keith Hernandez. Furthermore, Vizquel ranks 9th all-time in terms of career defensive WAR and his career fielding percentage at shortstop (.985) is well above the average shortstop fielding percentage throughout his career (.973). This combination of impressive career hit totals and winning of many Gold Gloves makes Vizquel worthy of the Hall in my eyes. Some troubling issues have arose recently regarding Vizquel's personal character, but again I believe the Hall should include the best baseball players, not the nicest people. 4. Andruw Jones - CF Andruw Jones' case for Cooperstown is very similar to that of Vizquel's. As I mentioned under Ortiz, reaching 500 career home runs makes a player a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame unless they used steroids, which Jones never did. However, Jones did come up short of the 500 mark with 434 homers, good for tied for 48th all-time. Jones was also an elite defender though, winning 10 Gold Glove awards, which ties him for 3rd most all-time by an outfielder. In terms of career defensive WAR, Jones is 22nd all-time. Among center fielders, Jones has the most career defensive WAR and the 6th most career home runs. This combination of elite career home run hitting and Gold Glove winning makes Jones worthy of the Hall in my opinion. Jones also has a respectable 5 All-Star appearances and one second place MVP finish in 2005. 5. Jeff Kent - 2B Kent is one of just 15 second basemen in history to win an MVP award, 11 of which are Hall of Famers and 2 of which are active or not yet eligible for the ballot. Kent's 377 career home runs are the most of any second basemen in history. His 1,518 career RBI are the 3rd most all-time among second basemen, with both players ahead of him in the Hall. His 560 career doubles and .500 career slugging percentage are both 5th most among second basemen. Clearly, Kent is one of the best offensive second basemen all-time and he was still able to be an average fielder. His career defensive WAR is just below average at -0.1 and his career fielding percentage at second base of 0.980 is just below the league average second base fielding percentage during his career of 0.982. Kent also won 4 Silver Slugger awards in his career and appeared in 5 All-Star games. It is my belief that elite offensive skills and average defensive skills throughout the course of a career a Hall of Famer makes. 6. Scott Rolen - 3B Rolen boasts an impressive 7 All-Star game appearances and 8 Gold Gloves. Only 3 third basemen have more Gold Gloves in their careers, 1 of which is active (Nolan Arenado) and the other 2 of which are in the Hall of Fame (Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt). Rolen's career WAR is 10th most all-time among third basemen, with every player ahead of him in the Hall of Fame besides Adrian Beltre, who is not yet eligible for the ballot. He has the 6th most career defensive WAR among third basemen, and the 45th most among all positions. He is tied for the 25th most career total zone runs all-time. Most of Rolen's excellence was on defense, but he still was an impressive offensive player, obtaining 2,077 hits in his career and 316 home runs to go with a .281 career batting average. He came 4th in MVP voting in 2004, won a World Series in 2006, won a Silver Slugger in 2002, and was the 1997 Rookie of the Year. It is my belief that elite defensive skills and above average offensive skills throughout the course of a career a Hall of Famer makes. 7. Billy Wagner - CP Wagner has the 6th most career reliever-adjusted JAWS all-time, and his 422 career saves are also good for the 6th most all-time. 3 of the players ahead of him are in the Hall (Rivera, Hoffman, Smith) and one is not yet eligible for the ballot (K-Rod). Wagner's 7 All-Star appearances are tied for the 5th most all-time among relief pitchers, and all relievers with 7 or more All-Star appearances are either in the Hall of Fame, not yet eligible for the ballot, still playing in the MLB, or named Billy Wagner. His 2.31 career ERA is the 5th most all-time among relievers. Wagner came 4th in Cy Young voting in 1999, the year that he won the Rolaids Relief Man award. Billy Wagner is one of the greatest closing pitchers in history and deserves a spot in Cooperstown. 8. Todd Helton - 1B Two recent inductions into the Hall of Fame were Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker. For his career, Edgar batted .312, had an on-base percentage of 0.418, a slugging percentage of 0.515, had 2,247 hits, scored 1,219 runs, had 1,261 RBI, and hit 309 home runs. Similarly, Walker batted .313, had an on-base percentage of 0.400, a slugging percentage of 0.565, had 2,160 hits, scored 1,355 runs, had 1,311 RBI, and hit 383 home runs. In Todd Helton's career, he batted 0.316, had an on-base percentage of 0.414, a slugging percentage of 0.539, had 2,519 hits, scored 1,401 runs, had 1,406 RBI, and hit 369 home runs. The similarity between these 3 players is striking, and the inclusion of 2 of them in Cooperstown demands the inclusion of the third. Helton's career on-base percentage is tied for the 30th most all-time (8th most among first basemen) and among the highest during the modern era of baseball. He has the 17th most career WAR among first basemen, with every player ahead of him either being a Hall of Famer, steroid user, or active player. Todd Helton appeared in 5 All-Star games, won 4 Silver Slugger awards (tied with Albert Pujols and Paul Goldschmidt for the most by a first basemen), won 3 Gold Glove awards, won the batting title in 2000, and also led the league in doubles with 59 in 2000 (tied for the 7th most in a single season in history and the most in a single season by a player with a colored profile picture on Baseball Reference). Basically, he hit the most doubles in a season in a long time. Helton also has the 20th most career doubles all-time, and only Luis Gonzalez has more doubles of players not active, not yet eligible for the ballot, not in the Hall of Fame, not a steroid-user, or not banned due to gambling. A Hall with Martinez and Walker included but Helton not makes no sense, so Helton belongs in Cooperstown as well. 9. Barry Bonds - LF Now things get tricky! Statistically speaking, Barry Bonds is one of the greatest baseball players of all-time and therefore his inclusion in the Hall of Fame would seem obvious. His 762 career home-runs are the most all-time (and above the 500 home run Hall of Fame clinch mark), and his 73 home runs in 2001 are the most in a single season all-time. His 2,935 career hits are woefully close to the 3,000 hit Hall of Fame clinch mark and good for the 38th most all-time. Bonds' 2,558 career walks are the most all-time, and when combined with his hits and his times hit by pitch, Bonds reached base a total of 5,599 times, 2nd all-time behind only Pete Rose (who reached based 5,929 times). His .444 career on-base percentage ranks him 7th all-time, his 1,996 career RBI rank him 6th all-time, and his 2,227 career runs scored rank him 3rd all-time. In addition to his raw power and ability to get on base, Bonds was also a superb base stealer (especially early in his career), and his 514 career stolen bases place him 34th all-time. Then there's his stockpile of awards, which include a whopping 7 MVP awards (the most of any player), 14 All-Star appearances, 12 Silver Sluggers (the most of any player), and 8 Gold Glove awards. In complete isolation, and with total ignorance of Bonds' steroid use, he is without question worthy of the Hall of Fame. However, his use of steroids does put a heavy and important caveat on his Cooperstown consideration. Although he hit more homers than anyone in MLB history, Bonds only ever hit more than 50 home runs once, when he hit 73 in 2001. His second most in a season was 49 in the year prior. His third most was 46, which he accomplished in 1993 and in 2002. His fourth most was 45, which he did in 2003 and 2004. So, from 1986 to 1999 (when Bonds was ages 21 to 34), the most homers Bonds hit in a season was 46, and he only hit 40 or more homers two other times during that span. However, from 2000 to 2004 (when Bonds was ages 35 to 39), he hit just about his previous single season maximum every single year. He averaged 31.8 homers from 1986 to 1999, but averaged 51.6 homers from 2000 to 2004. The most homers Hank Aaron ever hit in a season was 47, and he had several other seasons throughout his career where he hit 44 or 45 homers. The most homers Babe Ruth ever hit in a season was 60, and he had other seasons were he hit 54 (twice) and 59 homers. The massive range from Bonds best home run hitting season and his second-best home run hitting season is absurd and not seen by his 700 home run club counterparts, nor is the sudden increase in home run productivity at an older age. This increase in homers was not a coincidence. Barry Bonds used steroids, whether you choose to believe it or not. He may have never tested positive (since tests weren't performed back then), but the statistical and visual/physical evidence (just look at that size change!) is staggering. Steroids give players extra strength, allowing players to stay healthy into old age as well as give them more power and speed off their bats. This results in more home runs, more RBI, and more fear from pitchers. This fear from pitchers leads them to walk these powerful batters more often, both intentionally and "unintentionally". People love to lament about Bonds' 2004 season where he boasted an absurd .609 on-base percentage, the most in a season by any player ever. However, during that season Bonds was walked 232 times (the most in a single-season ever), 120 of which were intentional walks (again, the most in a single-season ever, and 52 more than the second most ever!) The impressiveness of Bonds' 2004 OBP is vastly overstated, as it was largely due to pitchers fearing his slugging power, which was established by his use of steroids, and therefore intentionally walking him. If pitchers would have just actually pitched to Bonds that year, his on-base percentage would have surely been much lower, albeit he also would have hit more home runs. Bonds holds the top 3 places in most single-season intentional walks (all when he was age 37+), and 7 of the top 10 places. He also holds the top 3 places in most single-season walks, and 4 of the top 10 places. I don't view Bonds' old age on-base prowess as impressive, I see it as pitchers being passive and not throwing to a player that synthetically established such power dominance by using steroids. I think Bonds' use of steroids is shameful, along with every other player's use of steroids. However, I do believe that he still belongs in the Hall of Fame. Even with steroids I don't think Bonds is the greatest player ever, but his use of steroids allowed him to be put in the conversation. I don't believe Bonds' use of steroids propelled him from a non-Hall of Fame player to a Hall of Fame player and one of the best ever, but rather that they simply propelled him from a Hall of Fame player to one of the best ever. Many players used steroids during his time, and Bonds' career accomplishments are notably superior to that of Jose Canseco, Jason Giambi, etc. It is widely believed that Bonds first started using steroids in the 1999 season. Taking all his stats and awards from 1986 to 1998, Bonds would have 411 home runs, 445 stolen bases, 1,364 runs scored, 1,216 RBI, 1,917 hits, 1,357 walks, a .290 batting average, a .411 on-base percentage, a .556 slugging percentage, 3 MVP awards, 8 All-Star appearances, 8 Gold Gloves, and 7 Silver Sluggers. These show how great Bonds was before he even used steroids and how he was already well on his way to Cooperstown. I encourage you all to take a look at this article that shows how Bonds' career would have likely turned out had he not used steroids starting in 1999 (https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32806209/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-far-less-great-subtract-ped-factor). It notably predicts only 551 career home runs for Bonds. Since Bonds was basically already Hall of Fame worthy before he used steroids, and since he was statistically so much better than many of his fellow steroid users, I believe that Bonds deserves an exemption and should be inducted. 10. Roger Clemens - SP This is another tricky one, but my argument for Clemens is essentially the same as the one I had for Bonds. Solely statistically speaking, Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers of all-time. His 7 Cy Young awards are the most of any pitcher ever, he is one of only 22 pitchers in history to win the MVP, he owns 2 of the 39 pitching Triple Crown seasons in history, and he is one of only 7 pitchers in history to achieve a pitching Triple Crown season multiple times. Clemens' 354 career wins place him 9th all-time and he is currently the only pitcher with more than 300 wins not in the Hall of Fame. His 4,672 career strikeouts are the 3rd most ever and obviously are above the 3,000 strikeout Hall of Fame clincher discussed previously for Curt Schilling. Clemens led the league in ERA 7 times, ranks 3rd all-time in career WAR for pitchers, and appeared in 11 All-Star games. Clemens also used steroids, largely believed starting in 1998, to continue to excel into old age. He won 2 Cy Young awards at ages 38 and 41, and came third in Cy Young voting at age 42. Other old pitchers have won the Cy Young before, such as 37 year-old R.A. Dickey in 2012 and 39 year-old Gaylord Perry in 1978, but these players were known for their funky pitches (knuckleball and spitball, respectively) rather than for their arm strength (however, Clemens did develop a splitter later in his career). At such an old age, Clemens continued to uncharacteristically throw the ball very hard and strikeout many batters. Clemens was not the only steroid using pitcher, and showed to be much better than his other steroid-using pitcher counterparts such as Andy Pettitte. Additionally, Clemens was first believed to use steroids in 1998 and accomplished so much before that season. From 1984 to 1997, Clemens had 213 wins, 2,882 strikeouts, an ERA of 2.97, 4 Cy Young awards, an MVP award, and 6 All-Star appearances. Clearly, Clemens was on his way to being a Hall of Famer before he started taking steroids. I encourage you to take a look at this article that predicts how Clemens' career would have turned out had he not started using steroids in 1998 (https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/32806209/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-far-less-great-subtract-ped-factor). It notably predicts only 298 wins for Clemens. Despite Clemens' use of steroids, since he was so much better than other steroid-using pitchers and had already established himself as a Hall of Fame calibre pitcher prior to using steroids, I believe he still deserves to be in Cooperstown. NOT ON MY BALLOT THIS YEAR, BUT MAYBE IN THE FUTURE: These are players that I wouldn't include on my ballot for this year, but might in future years. They have some cases for consideration but haven't quite won me over yet, or their cases just are inferior to those of the players on my hypothetical ballot this year.
LIKELY NEVER ON MY BALLOT: I generally do not support any player that I truly believed to use steroids being in the Hall of Fame. I believe there is generally a "vibe" around players about whether the greater baseball community and society believes a player used steroids or not. While some people accost David Ortiz, I think most people don't believe the accusations and overall Ortiz has a positive vibe. Other players, such as Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Gary Sheffield, I believe have a negative vibe. All of these players played before testing was implemented and therefore there is no definitive proof, but the breadth of stories, physical growth, and statistical increases are case enough to determine that these players used steroids. More recent players, such as Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez, actually tested positive and we know with certainty that they did use steroids. A common and increasingly accepted stance on steroid use for Hall of Fame considerations is to only exclude players that officially tested positive. While this is not the exact stance that I hold, I do think this stance has its merits and I don't disagree with it entirely.
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