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The National Baseball Hall of Fame announced the members of the 2024 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee Ballot on October 19th. This ballot consists of 8 managers, umpires, and executives/pioneers whose primary baseball contributions came after 1980. Specifically, there are 4 managers, 2 umpires, and 2 executives. The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee will meet on December 3rd to discuss and vote on the ballot. Each of the 16 committee members may vote for up to 3 people, and a person must receive at least 75% of the votes (12 votes) to be inducted. The specific members of the committee were announced on November 27th and include several former Hall of Fame players in Jeff Bagwell, Tom Glavine, Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, and Ted Simmons. Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre and Hall of Fame executive and former MLB commissioner Bud Selig will also be on the committee. Rounding out the 16 voters are 6 executives and 3 media members and historians, including the founder of Baseball Reference, Sean Forman. In this post I will discuss each of the candidates and share my hypothetical ballot. This will be slightly different from my typical player Hall of Fame analysis where I lean more heavily on my tools of Player Value and my Hall of Fame predictive model. However, one important thing to note is that these candidates are to be considered for their entire body of baseball work, rather than their specific worth for the role they will be inducted for. For example, if Joe Torre weren't already a Hall of Famer and were on the ballot, we would consider the joint value from both his playing and managerial careers. To this end, candidates that also were players will have their impact from their playing careers analyzed below as well. Rather than regurgitating how some of my tools work in this post, you can read about my Player Value metric here and my Hall of Fame predictive model here. I will note that there are 2 ways to run players through the Hall of Fame model. One is using the initial dataset, meaning the model is not aware of any inductees from 2022 or 2023. The other way is to use an updated dataset, informing the model of any inductees from the last 2 years. Generally this has the advantage of having more complete and recent data, but has declined in accuracy from the initial model. This year, however, the updated dataset actually resulted in an overall more accurate model. Without getting into the nitty gritty of predictive modeling, AUC is a measure of model accuracy and the closer it is to 1, the better. The initial dataset resulted in the model having an AUC of .9736, while the updated dataset gave the model an AUC of .9891, which is even better than the AUC of .9817 that the model had back in 2021 when it was first created. A caveat here is that ballot member Bill White was already in the dataset as an example of a non-Hall of Fame player, as he fell off the BBWAA ballot in 1977 after 3 years on the ballot and receiving just 1% of the vote. Because of this, I had to remove Bill White from the dataset in order for the model to predict his Hall of Fame case. If not, it is akin to telling someone that 2+2=4 and then asking them what 2+2 is; they will (or at least should) always tell you that it is 4. Ok, now on to discussing the ballot members. Managers Lou Piniella Manager Stats on Baseball Reference Player Stats on Baseball Reference Lou Piniella's most significant accomplishment was winning the 1990 World Series as the manager of the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds went 91-71 in the regular season and went wire-to-wire, meaning they led the NL West for every game of the season. After beating the Pittsburgh Pirates led by Jim Leyland (who is also on this ballot) in 6 games in the NLCS, the Reds swept the Oakland Athletics in 4 games. The series was considered a major upset, as the A's had won 103 games and were the previous World Series champions. That A's team was managed by future Hall of Famer Tony La Russa and included future Hall of Famer players Rickey Henderson, Dennis Eckersley, and Harold Baines, as well as the steroid slugging likes of the "Bash Brothers", Mark McGwire and Jose Canseco. Piniella's other big accomplishment was being the manager of the 2001 Seattle Mariners that went 116-46, tying the record for most wins in a season in Major League history. That team naturally won the AL West and advanced to the ALCS, but lost in 5 games to the New York Yankees' dynasty of the period. Piniella's career record was 1835-1713 for a winning percentage of .517. Of the 22 Hall of Famer managers, Piniella would rank 13th in wins and 19th in winning percentage. While he only won the one World Series and pennant, he went to 4 total league championship series, won the division 6 times, and advanced to the postseason 7 times in his 23 season managing career. His teams exceeded 100 games once, 90 games eight times, and had a winning record in 14 of his 23 seasons. He would rank 14th in number of winning seasons and 12th in number of seasons with 90+ wins. Piniella has also won the Manager of the Year award 3 times, an accolade that has existed since 1983. Hall of Fame manager contemporaries Bobby Cox and Tony La Russa each won that award 4 times. Piniella's playing career wasn't really near Hall of Fame quality, but I do think it is important to distinguish from managers that did not play in the majors at all (such as Jim Leyland) or from managers that only played for a very short period of time (such as Sparky Anderson). Piniella enjoyed an 18-year career primarily as a leftfielder with the Yankees and Royals. He was the 1969 AL Rookie of the Year with Kansas City and was an All-Star with the Royals in 1972, the same season that he led the American League with 33 doubles. He won 2 World Series as a member of the Yankees in 1977 and 1978. His 12.4 career WAR again isn't anything special, ranking 190th among fellow leftfielders. His Player Value comes out as -20, ranking 929th out of the 1,101 players I have as primarily leftfielders from 1912-2021. Part of that lower ranking is due to players that don't play very long not being able to produce much negative value. Player Value doesn't think Piniella should have been an All-Star, but does think he should have won a Gold Glove. The updated Hall of Fame predictive model did not predict Piniella as a Hall of Fame player, giving him a probability of just 6.5%, where at least 50% is needed to be predicted as a Hall of Fame player. For reference, last year the model gave Jhonny Peralta (who fell off the BBWAA ballot) a probability of 5.9%. Piniella appeared on the BBWAA ballot in 1990 as a player and received just 0.5% of the vote, falling off the ballot. Of the committee members, it's possible Torre could vote for Piniella out of respect for his peer. They faced each other in back-to-back ALCS matchups in 2000 and 2001. As a member of the Indians, Thome squared off against Piniella in the 1995 ALCS and the 2001 ALDS. Verdict: I think Piniella deserves to be inducted. He had a long managerial career with success at multiple spots. He wasn't the best manager of his time and won't be one of the better managers in the Hall, but worst managers have been inducted in my opinion, such as Bucky Harris and Wilbert Robinson. He ranks 17th in wins all-time, got a World Series title that has been precious to Reds fans, had an iconic season in Seattle, is up there in terms of Manager of the Year awards, and is also iconic himself due to his ejection meltdowns. His playing career isn't a substantial factor, but he did have a fairly long career with decent success so it at least gives him a bit of a favorable bump. Davey Johnson Manager Stats on Baseball Reference Player Stats on Baseball Reference Davey Johnson is a more unique case in that he had both a solid playing and managing career. His biggest managerial accomplishment was managing the 1986 New York Mets to a World Series victory over the Boston Red Sox in 7 games. This is the infamous "Buckner Play", so perhaps you can argue that if Bill had made the play then Johnson would have 0 championships to bout. The Mets went 108-54 that season, winning the NL East by more than 20 games. While 1986 was Johnson's only World Series and pennant, I believe it is important to mention the success of his 1994 Cincinnati Reds before the season-ending strike took place. Many people recall the 1994 Montreal Expos, who were 74-40 and led the NL East, and believe that they would have won the World Series had the season continued. However, the Reds led the NL Central and were 66-48. It is not extreme to think that Cincinnati could have won the World Series that season either; they would make it to the NLCS the next season in 1995. Johnson's career record was 1372-1071 with 2 ties for a .562 winning percentage. His win totals aren't too impressive, ranking 19th among the 22 Hall of Fame managers, but his winning percentage ranks a much more favorable 6th. He made it to a league championship series 5 times, won the division 6 times, and made the postseason 6 times in his 17 season managerial career. His teams exceeded 100 wins twice, 90 wins seven times, and had a winning record in 13 out of 17 seasons. He would rank 10th among Hall of Fame managers in percentage of seasons with winning records. He won the Manager of the Year award 2 times. As a player, Johnson primarily played second base with the Orioles and Braves. He was a 4-time All-Star and won the Gold Glove award 3 times. He won 2 World Series as a member of the Orioles in 1966 and 1970. His 27.4 WAR ranks 73th among fellow second basemen and he is one of just 41 second basemen in history to appear in at least 4 All-Star games. Davey famously hit 43 home runs in 1973, despite never hitting more than 20 any other season of his career. While the driver of that may be mysterious, it is the 2nd most home runs in a season by a primarily second baseman in history. Johnson's Player Value of 221.43 ranks 43rd out of the 1,033 players that I have on file as playing the majority of their games at second base from 1912-2021. While that mark probably isn't quite at the level of the Hall of Fame, it isn't that far off. Player Value agrees that Johnson should have been a 4 time All-Star, but think he should have only won 1 Gold Glove. The Hall of Fame model is not as keen on Johnson as Player Value is. It doesn't predict him as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 7.3% As for potential committee member biases, Chipper Jones and Tom Glavine were both on the Braves team that beat Johnson's Reds in the 1995 NLCS, so maybe there is some respect there. Torre and Johnson squared off in the AL East in 1996 and 1997, splitting who won the division each year. Verdict: I think Johnson deserves to be inducted. He had a solid managerial career and a good playing career that I think in combination more than merit his induction. Johnson probably didn't get the slack he deserved as a manager given his success; he went 98-64 with the Orioles in 1997, won the AL East, took them to the ALCS, and was named the Manager of the Year, and was basically forced to resign after disagreements with the team's owner. He was also let go by the Reds after the shortened 1995 season when he went 85-59, won the NL Central, and took them to the NLCS. This dismissal was again largely due to owner disagreements rather than performance issues, as Reds owner Marge Schott did not like that Johnson was living with his fiancee prior to marriage. I think Johnson could have been an even better manager if some teams had given him a more extensive chance. Regardless, Johnson still ranks 10th all-time in winning percentage among managers with at least 1,000 wins, with every manager ahead of him inducted in Cooperstown. Pair that winning success with a World Seres and a great playing career and I think Johnson is worthy of induction. Jim Leyland Manager Stats on Baseball Reference It is a little difficult to pinpoint a singular best accolade for Jim Leyland. His one World Series victory came in 1997 as the manager of the Florida Marlins, who did not begin playing in Major League Baseball until 1993. That team comprised of players like Kevin Brown, Robb Nen, Moises Alou, Gary Sheffield, Bobby Bonilla, Jeff Conine, and Charles Johnson. They beat the Indians dynasty of the period in 7 games after going 92-70 and finishing 2nd in the NL East. However, in Leyland's 2nd season with the Marlins in 1998 they would go a dismal 54-108 after getting rid of the vast majority of their stars - none of the aforementioned players were on the 1998 team. Leyland would resign from his Marlins duties due to these ownership decisions. So while Leyland got his World Series with the Marlins, he was only there for 2 seasons and still had a losing record overall. Leyland would reach 2 more World Series with the Detroit Tigers, falling short of a championship in 2006 and 2012. The 2006 squad went 95-67 and finished 2nd in the AL Central but lost in 5 games to the Cardinals. On that team was a young Justin Verlander and future Hall of Famer Ivan Rodriguez, as well as the likes of Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, Carlos Guillen, and Curtis Granderson to name a few. Leyland would also win his 3rd Manager of the Year award in 2006. The 2012 team went 88-74 and won the AL Central, but got swept by the Giants. That team also had Verlander and fellow pitching ace and likely future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, as well as the powerful likes of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. Most of Leyland's career however came as the skipper of the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1986-1996, in which he never led them to a World Series appearance despite playing in the NLCS for 3 consecutive seasons from 1990 to 1992. Those teams were led by Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonilla, Jay Bell, Doug Drabek, and Andy Van Slyke. Leyland's 1,769 career wins would rank 13th among current Hall of Fame managers, but his .506 winning percentage would rate as the 4th worst. While his 1 World Series victory isn't excessively impressive, his 8 appearances in a league championship series has only been topped by Hall of Famers Tony La Russa, Bobby Cox, and Joe Torre (granted that the LCS did not exist prior to 1969). His 3 Manager of the Year awards is also impressive and is only topped by La Russa and Cox. Jim Leyland never appeared in a Major League Baseball game as a player and thus I do not have any Player Value or Hall of Fame model details to share. He was signed as a catcher by the Tigers out of high school but only ever appeared in the minor leagues. Regarding voter biases, Ted Simmons served as the general manager of the Pirates for parts of the 1992 and 1993 seasons, but ultimately resigned after suffering a heart attack. Leyland managed against Joe Torre when he was the Cardinals skipper in the 1990s and both teams were in the NL East. He also managed against the Braves in the 1991 and 1992 NLCS, when Tom Glavine was with Atlanta. His NL East matchups against the Braves would have also touched Chipper Jones in 1995 and 1996. He faced off against Jim Thome in the AL Central for portions of 2006-2011 when Thome was with the White Sox, Twins, and Indians. Verdict: Relative to the other managerial candidates, Leyland's case is at least slightly hurt due to never being a player. Leyland had a lengthy career that included winning a good number of games and making it as a semifinalist several times. However, his winning percentage and proportion of winning seasons are not as impressive compared to other Hall of Fame skippers and his ultimate lack of postseason success also raises a slight flag. Part of his poor seasons are due to ownership getting rid of players after periods of success (fire sales), such as in 1998 with the Marlins and the Pirates after 1992. Overall I would not be opposed to Leyland being inducted but think that there are 3 other people on the ballot that are more deserving. Cito Gaston Manager Stats on Baseball Reference Player Stats on Baseball Reference Cito Gaston is most well-known for managing the Toronto Blue Jays to consecutive World Series titles in 1992 and 1993. That first team included future Hall of Fame players Roberto Alomar, Dave Winfield, and Jack Morris, as well as notable players in John Olerud, Dave Stieb, Devon White, Joe Carter, Tom Henke, Mark Eichhorn, David Cone, and even Jeff Kent. The following season's squad added future Hall of Famers Paul Molitor and Rickey Henderson, as well as the likes of Dave Stewart, Tony Fernandez, and a young Carlos Delgado. That is all to say that those Blue Jays teams were absolutely stacked and there is probably a good number of managers that could have also led them to the same level of success. Outside of those 2 seasons, Gaston's Hall of Fame candidacy is lacking. He only made the playoffs in 2 more of his 12 total managerial seasons. He took over for Jimy Williams during the 1989 season and led the Blue Jays to an ALCS defeat at the hands of the mighty Oakland Athletics. He managed Toronto at the start and end of the 1991 season, where they lost in the ALCS to the eventual World Series champion Minnesota Twins. Gene Tenace served as the team's interim manager while Gaston was out with a herniated disc. Besides the stretch from 1989 to 1993, Gaston's teams were filled with mediocrity. His only other winning season was his last year during his 2nd stint with the Blue Jays, winning 85 games in 2010. Gaston's 894 wins would rank dead last compared to the other Hall of Fame managers. His .516 winning percentage would rank 19th compared to the 22 current Hall of Fame managers. His 2 seasons with 90+ wins and his 7 winning seasons would also rank last. Among contemporary Hall of Fame managers, only Dick Williams and Earl Weaver managed when the Manager of the Year award existed and failed to win one. The award began in 1983 and Weaver's last managerial season was 1986 and Williams' last was 1988; both of them had the bulk of their career's prior to the start of the award. Gaston's 2 World Series would tie him for 10th most among Hall of Fame managers, but besides that he really doesn't have much else going for him. As a player, Gaston was an All-Star in 1970, a season in which he batted .318 and hit 29 home runs. Unfortunately, that level of success did not sustain for most of Gaston's career. He failed to surpass 1,000 hits or 100 home runs and only ended up playing for 11 seasons. His WAR was only -0.8, meaning that Gaston was essentially a replacement-level player for his career. He's not even in the top 500 of primarily center fielders in history. Gaston's Player Value of -98.34 ranks as the 5th worst among the 920 primarily center fielders that I have on file from 1912-2021. Player Value doesn't think he should have been an All-Star, either. The Hall of Fame also does not predict Gaston as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of just 6.2%. As per committee members, Gaston played briefly with Torre on the Braves in 1967. He did not manage or have any notable matchups with any of the former Hall of Fame players on the committee. He had a brief overlap in the AL East from 1996-1997 as his first stint with the Blue Jays was ending and Torre's Yankees dynasty was beginning. If the committee instead consisted of the likes of Alomar, Henderson, Molitor, Winfield, and Morris, then Gaston may have a chance... Verdict: I do not think that Gaston deserves to be inducted. He did win the 2 World Series titles, but those rosters were pretty stacked and he failed to show much success in his managerial career otherwise. While his playing career does somewhat give him a boost, it really doesn't move the meter much at all. If manager Gaston from 1992 and 1993 or player Gaston from 1970 was more routinely the case, then he might have found himself in Cooperstown more easily. Executives Bill White Wikipedia Page Player Stats on Baseball Reference Bill White is another unique case in that he also had a near Hall of Fame playing career in addition to his role as the President of the National League from 1989 to 1994. I admit that it is difficult for me to evaluate White's worthiness on the executive front. Per Wikipedia, he was the first black executive to reach such a position, which seems to be an important feat. However, he supposedly was more of a figurehead in the position rather than someone with actual power. White is in fact the penultimate NL president, as the merger of the leagues in 1999 made the position obsolete. The Hall of Fame announcement gives White some credit for the addition of the Rockies and Marlins into the National League, as well as for the merger with the American League. I'm not sure how much of that credit he ultimately deserves, as league expansion may have been a larger scale decision made by the commissioner or all of the owners. As per the merger, that ultimately took place 5 years after White left the role. As a player, White was primarily a first baseman for the St. Louis Cardinals. He appeared in 8 All-Star games, but really only 5 distinct All-Star seasons given that two All-Star games were played each season from 1959 to 1961. Most notably, he won 7 Gold Gloves at first base in his career, which is tied with Vic Power for the 4th most in history. At the time White won his 7th Gold Glove, he was actually tied with Power for the most by a first baseman in history; George Scott, Don Mattingly, and Keith Hernandez would all pass him later. White's WAR of 38.6 ranks 50th among primarily first basemen in history. Looking specifically at the defensive side of WAR, White's Rfield of 57 ranks 21st all-time among fellow first basemen. Instead looking at Player Value, White ranks 34th all-time with a Player Value of 278.49. That's among the 894 players who played most of their games at first base that I have data for from 1912-2021. That puts White in the top 3.8%, perhaps not Hall of Fame level as a player but certainly close. On the defensive side, his Fielding Value of 161.22 ranks 23rd all-time among fellow first basemen. Interestingly, Player Value thinks White should have only been a 4 time All-Star, and that he never should have won a Gold Glove. It does think he should have won a Silver Slugger in 1962 had the award existed. White also won a World Series in 1964 with the Cardinals, the same season that he finished 3rd in NL MVP voting. Recall that White was actually close enough of a Hall of Famer that I already had him in my model's dataset as an example of a non-Hall of Famer. This is because when developing the lists I looked at things like leaders in various statistical categories and accolades at each position, such as Gold Gloves. Another source I relied on was Baseball Egg's all-time rankings at each position. White ranks 42nd according to them. The Hall of Fame model did not predict White as a Hall of Famer, giving him a probability of 10.8%, the most of the 3 former players on the ballot. For some context, last year the model gave Torii Hunter a probability of 10.5%, who received 6.9% of the vote on the 2023 BBWAA ballot. One likely committee member bias could be Bud Selig, who served as the acting MLB Commissioner from 1992 to 1998, overlapping with White's tenure as President of the National League from 1989 to 1994. White also briefly played with Torre and Simmons for the Cardinals during his last season in 1969. Verdict: I think White deserves to be inducted. He had a near Hall of Fame playing career and I think adding his role as President of the NL on top of that pushes him in. I do think other candidates on this ballot have good cases for my 3rd spot here, but ultimately think White is the most deserving of the remaining candidates. Defensive metrics may not be as keen on him as his 7 Gold Gloves suggest, but ultimately I think players should be rewarded for what those awards represent. In this case, Bill White was the best defensive first basemen in the National League for nearly a decade. Hank Peters Wikipedia Page Hank Peters was most notably the general manager of the Baltimore Orioles from 1976 to 1987, during which they won the World Series in 1983 and also won the AL pennant in 1979. Peters obviously played a part in the Orioles success of the team, but that success is also attributable to Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver and Hall of Fame players Jim Palmer, Eddie Murray, and Cal Ripken Jr. Peters was responsible for obtaining players such as Rick Dempsey, Tippy Martinez, and Scott McGregor that were part of those pennant-winning teams. The Orioles were hardly in shambles prior to Peters' arrival though, having reached the ALCS in 1973 and 1974 and winning 90 games in 1975. He was fired after the decline of the Orioles from 1984 to 1987. The Hall of Fame's announcement article gives Peters some additional credit that he may or may not be entirely worthy of, in my opinion. It suggests that Peters played a large role in the creation of the Oakland Athletics' dynasty in the 1970s, as well as the success of the Cleveland Indians in the 1990s. Peters led the Indians from October 1987 to 1991 and was responsible for the signings of Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez. Thome was selected in the 13th round of the 1989 draft and thus I believe his success was largely more so a case of his own perseverance and determination rather than Peters discovering some diamond-in-the-rough talent. The Indians never had a winning season under Peters' leadership; their true success would come from 1995 to 2001. Albert Belle was drafted in June of 1987 prior to Peters' arrival. Kenny Lofton and Omar Vizquel were both traded to the Indians after Peters' departure. So while Peters may have played a part in developing the Indians period of success, I don't think he was the primary creator and shouldn't be recognized as that being a major accomplishment. As for the Athletics, Peters was in charge of the team's scouting and minor league system in the early 1960s while it was located in Kansas City. He served as general manager for the 1965 season, in which they finished last. Peters obviously had some role in obtaining future stars like Catfish Hunter, Rollie Fingers, Sal Bando, and Gene Tenace, but again most of the teams actual success was experienced after the fact. Additionally, other stars like Reggie Jackson and Vida Blue were drafted after Peters was with the team. As far as committee member bias goes, perhaps Jim Thome has a special place in his heart for the man that played a part in drafting him. Torre's Yankees squads went up against the Indians several times in the playoffs, so maybe he has some respect for the team that Peters helped put together. Verdict: I wouldn't be outraged if Peters were inducted but wouldn't put him on my 3 person ballot. He did have success leading the Orioles, but some of those pieces like Jim Palmer were already in place to keep things going. The Athletics and Indians both experienced success after his association with those teams, and while he does deserve some credit for their future success, there were other important players that were obtained for those winning teams that he played no part in. I don't quite think his connection to the Athletics' and Indians' success is clear-cut enough for induction, nor do I think his period with the Orioles was successful enough to merit induction. I also would rather use the limited number of votes available on worthy managers, rather than executives. Umpires Joe West Wikipedia Page Joe West was an umpire in Major League Baseball from 1976 to 2021. His 43 seasons of umpiring is the most by anyone in history. His 5,460 games umpired is likewise also the most by anyone in history. He umpired 3 All-Star games, 4 Wild Card games, 8 Division Series, 10 League Championship Series, and 6 World Series, as well as the 2009 World Baseball Classic. It is clear that West is special in being the longest serving umpire. He is one of the few umpires I have heard of because of that reason. However, I don't think West has universally been regarded as being a great umpire. Measuring such things is difficult, but recent revelations in pitch tracking data have allowed some people to create tools to do so, such as Umpire Scorecards. You may have seen these on Twitter/X, where they post an image after each game showing how each umpire fared in terms of calling strikes correctly, calling balls correctly, any pivotal missed calls, and the run favorability impact of calls towards each team. Here's the post from the last game of his career, where Joe did a decent job. Here's a post from one of Joe's not-so-good games that I found. Per Umpire Scorecards, which only has umpire grading data for Joe West from 2015-2021, he ranks in just the 11th percentile of Accuracy (90.9% accurate), in just the 5th percentile of Accuracy Above Expected, (1.32% less accurate than expected) and in just the 18th percentile of Consistency (92.8% consistent). While those are not great metrics, I will cut Joe some slack since these were the last 7 seasons of his career when he was ages 63 to 69, probably not the peak period for anyone's eyesight. Verdict: Probably deserving of induction but not someone I would put on my 3 person ballot. I think part of this is how the system is currently set up - managers, umpires, and executives/pioneers are pitted against each other for induction. For people whose main contributions are before 1980, even players are included in the fold! I personally will always prefer to induct worthy players, managers, and even executives before umpires. I think the Hall of Fame should be home to the people that directly impact the game, and that umpires would be better to have a special exhibit such as the Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasters. However, the fact of the matter is that umpires are inducted and West probably deserves it for being the longest tenured umpire. The umpire that previously held this record, Bill Klem, is one of the 10 umpires in Cooperstown. Given the tools we have today like Umpire Scorecards, I wouldn't be opposed to inducting umpires that have statistical evidence at being great at their job. Pat Hoberg, for example, ranks in the 85th percentile of Accuracy (94.1% accurate), the 97th percentile of Accuracy Above Expected (1.53% more accurate than expected), and the 92nd percentile of Consistency (93.9% consistent). He is also famous for having called a perfect game in Game 2 of the 2022 World Series. However, by the time we have enough years of data like this to use for an umpire's entire career, I fear that we may already begin switching to robot umpires and its usage will become moot. Ed Montague Wikipedia Page I had not previously heard of Ed Montague. He was a National League umpire in 1974 and from 1976-1999, and then for both the NL and the AL from 2000-2009. He was the most senior umpire at the time of his retirement and ranked 8th all-time in games umpired with 4,369 (This other Wikipedia source has him listed 13th all-time). Per the Hall of Fame's ballot announcement, he called 4 All-Star games, 4 Wild Card games, 7 Division Series, 7 League Championship Series, and 6 World Series. He is one of only 3 umpires to be the crew chief for a World Series at least 4 times. Since he retired in 2009, we don't have any Umpire Scorecards data to assess him with. Verdict: I'm not sure Montague deserves induction, and I wouldn't put him on my 3 person ballot. He does appear to be towards the top of non-Hall of Fame umpires, but he doesn't stand out from others like Gerry Davis to me to have his induction make sense or be necessary. Again, I'd rather put in a manager than an umpire any day of the week. Conclusion And that's the analysis of our ballot members! As a quick recap, from the 8 person ballot I would vote for:
Stay tuned for my next blog post where I plan to share my annual analysis of the coming year's BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot. The below file has detailed comparisons of the 20 current Hall of Fame managers and the 4 managers on this year's ballot:
The below files show the Hall of Fame model's predictions for the 4 former players on this year's ballot, using both the initial dataset and an updated dataset:
The below file has the detailed code for loading in the data for the Hall of Fame model and running it, as well as some results in the comments:
The below files show the input data for the 4 former players that the Hall of Fame model predicted, as well as the initial and updated datasets that were used to train the model:
1 Comment
Dad
11/30/2023 08:39:18 pm
Thorough review as always.
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